The Sabres Should Go Back to Run And Gun

[That Aud Smell]

29 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Will go back and relisten to what Granato actually said and not Koziol's interpretation of what he said

8 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

This is an important qualifier. I will try to do the same.

5:38 mark.

So, the reporter (Koziol?) had a big windup of a question where he says/posits everything that appears in the Koziol tweet (along with some other things) and then Granato simply says in response: You nailed it.

Not great.

[Pimlach]

10 hours ago, bunomatic said:

Not sure Levy would hold up to the run and gun. A goalie like Hasek in his prime would have been most excellent with this current team. But Levy ?

 

[That Aud Smell]

1 minute ago, Pimlach said:

 

Such a def beat. I love the story about how the Beastie Boys - ragged NYC punks (punk rockers?) who were steadily becoming rappers - started hanging out with this weirdo Rick Rubin at his NYU (?) dorm and Rick played this song for them - explained how it could back a massive rap record.

 

[PASabreFan]

10 hours ago, SwampD said:

The best teams are run and gun,… and play defense.

Just play hard everywhere.

True dat. I always wonder how in the world people separate defense and offense in hockey. Are they actually pigskinny fans?

1 hour ago, SDS said:

Marv is like 100 years old. There’s no way he would hold up.

When it's too tough for other 100 year olds...

[DarthEbriate]

HCDG, you are unwise to lower your defenses.

That said, if the Sabres were to average... say a completely unrealistic 5 GF/gm the rest of the season... they might just make it to the playoffs. They'll get killed in the playoffs when the whistles disappear and tackling is allowed, but you could make it there (as long as you never play Comrie again).

[That Aud Smell]

13 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

True dat. I always wonder how in the world people separate defense and offense in hockey.

I see the wisdom in "just play hard everywhere" on the ice.

OTOH, I have the sense - unconfirmed by hard data or compiled film study! - that the Sabres of this season have more conservative positioning in their own zone and are also slower to make the transition from their own zone into the neutral zone - and that last season the positioning was more aggressive and the zone departures were faster and more hopeful (?) - to the overall detriment of team defense. That there's a fairly clear distinction between playing defence and playing offence. The transition between the 2 happens fast, of course.

[mjd1001]

If 'run and gun' is what they are good at, then go for it.

It doesn't fix the PP woes though, and a large part of their scoring deficit is the PP.  By this time last year they had 37 pp goals. this year they have 14. last year at this time they had 137 total goals.  This year they have 103.  So they are down 34 goals (basically a goal a game from last year).  But the majority of those are PP goals.  23 of the 34 goal shortcoming is PP ( almost 70 percent).

So yeah, I'll take the other 30 percent if it is there....but 'run and gun' does nothing to fix pp scoring, and the vast majority of this teams lack of scoring is due to the shortfall on the PP.

[SwampD]

3 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

HCDG, you are unwise to lower your defenses.

That said, if the Sabres were to average... say a completely unrealistic 5 GF/gm the rest of the season... they might just make it to the playoffs. They'll get killed in the playoffs when the whistles disappear and tackling is allowed, but you could make it there (as long as you never play Comrie again).

The way the refs have been calling Sabres games this year tells me they’ll be perfectly ready for the officiating in the playoffs.

[Contempt]

7 minutes ago, SwampD said:

The way the refs have been calling Sabres games this year tells me they’ll be perfectly ready for the officiating in the playoffs.

Losing teams don't get calls. This is true in every sport at every level.

[ska-T Chitown]

3 hours ago, That Aud Smell said:

I see the wisdom in "just play hard everywhere" on the ice.

OTOH, I have the sense - unconfirmed by hard data or compiled film study! - that the Sabres of this season have more conservative positioning in their own zone and are also slower to make the transition from their own zone into the neutral zone - and that last season the positioning was more aggressive and the zone departures were faster and more hopeful (?) - to the overall detriment of team defense. That there's a fairly clear distinction between playing defence and playing offence. The transition between the 2 happens fast, of course.

This year has been do dizzyingly disappointing that last year feels like the faint memory of a fever dream. Does anyone recall where we may have given up lots of goals last year: (goalie performance removed for purposes of this discussion)

• due to turnovers in the neutral zone (or at our own blueline), resulting in odd man rushes 
• due to turnovers in the offensive zone, forwards not necessarily hustling back, resulting is odd man rushes (think earlier this year when Cozens pinched too hard)
• terrible positioning in the D zone once the opponent gets established (ie - forwards and D chasing the puck too hard until the end up in a tangled cluster of 4 Sabres leaving 1 to deal with 3-4 open opponents)

First one is going to come back if the Sabres move to a more aggressive breakout style just by percentage of bad passes, etc

Second one - if certain players (and we have seen glimmers) remember there is a D zone to get back to, this might not be as bad as last year? Similar to the last 10 games or so last year.

Third one seems to be the low-hanging fruit to the casual observer, but are we foolish to hope for miracles?

[mjd1001]

22 hours ago, ska-T Chitown said:

This year has been do dizzyingly disappointing that last year feels like the faint memory of a fever dream. Does anyone recall where we may have given up lots of goals last year: (goalie performance removed for purposes of this discussion)

• due to turnovers in the neutral zone (or at our own blueline), resulting in odd man rushes 
• due to turnovers in the offensive zone, forwards not necessarily hustling back, resulting is odd man rushes (think earlier this year when Cozens pinched too hard)
• terrible positioning in the D zone once the opponent gets established (ie - forwards and D chasing the puck too hard until the end up in a tangled cluster of 4 Sabres leaving 1 to deal with 3-4 open opponents)

First one is going to come back if the Sabres move to a more aggressive breakout style just by percentage of bad passes, etc

Second one - if certain players (and we have seen glimmers) remember there is a D zone to get back to, this might not be as bad as last year? Similar to the last 10 games or so last year.

Third one seems to be the low-hanging fruit to the casual observer, but are we foolish to hope for miracles?

This is my go to thing right now.  Many times I'll watch replays of the goals allowed, online its great to see replay from different angle and you can slow it down frame-by-frame.  Often times I have posted what I saw on each goal allowed for some games, I started that last year about mid season and have done it for about half the games this year.  What I see is the third...its the positioning in the D-zone that is killing them:

-The D-men on this team are not great, but as I posted in other thread, they aren't as bad as we make them out to be. When you watch some replays, they look like they make awful decisions, but often times they are caught between what they SHOULD be doing and what they might have to change to doing because the forwards are the worst I have ever seen in their own D-zone.  

-They pretty much all make mistakes. Don't confuse Okposo's exerience with him knowing what he is doing back there.  Cozens is probably the worst on the team, he abandons his man and leaves GAPING zone open in his own zone when he chases a puck into a spot a Sabres D-man is already there (and he does this over and over and over and never learns).  Krebs and Peterka like to wave their stick at guys when even the slightest bit of contact would distrupt a play. Skinner doesn't make many mistakes in the D-zone but that is because he tries to spend as little time there as possible.  The young guys kinda 'float' around like they don't know where they need to be.  Thompson and Tuch are OK but make some mistakes. The only semi-regular that really doesn't make many mistakes in his own zone is Girgensons, but he's not on the ice all that much.  Mitts has gotten better, I see less instances of him making mistakes in the D-zone than I did last year.

Oh, and Olofsson?  As much as he doesn't do much to disrupt plays, he is one of the lesser liabilities in his own zone among forwards.  Cozens can chase pucks and dig in the corners and hit people, but when he leaves the spot he should be, he leaves an open zone for an opposing player to jump right in and take a wide open shot.  VO doesn't do the 'hard work' but he occupies those prime zones by just existing there, often times not allowing an opposing player to get to those areas.  He doesn't "Do much" but he doesn't make mistakes. Its like a DB playing Zone defense in football. you don't have to make a great breakup of a pass, you just have to 'be' where the QB wants to throw the ball, and by being there you prevent a completion from that part of the field.

Again, the D-mean aren't all that bad, its just they have to cover for themselves AND have to be aware of what the forwards are leaving open.

Edited December 23, 2023 by mjd1001

[mjd1001]

 Lots of reasons for production and lack of, but I haven't looked at the Sabres goals per 60 in a while. One of my favorite stats...how many goals per 60 minutes of play even strength...basically tells you who is making the most production out of the time they are given on the ice.

Looked at the Sabres forwards (excluding anyone with only a handful of games):

The top 5 forwards for the Sabres in goals per 60:  1. Peterka  2. Thompson 3. Skinner  4. Tuch  5. Benson

The bottom 5 forwards in goals per 60 so far:  Worst:  Krebs  2nd worst:  Girgensons  3rd worst:  Jost   4th worst:  Greenway  5th worst: Cozens

Of course that leaves VO, Mitts, and Okposo in the middle

Benson a bit surprising to me. Its not automatic that he gets more goals with more ice time, but I'm ready to give him that chance.  His goals per 60 is 1.26. That would pretty much put him on the top 5 on this team any of the last few years.  I'd want to see his ice time bumped up and see if he can continue at that pace.

[Taro T]

50 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

 Lots of reasons for production and lack of, but I haven't looked at the Sabres goals per 60 in a while. One of my favorite stats...how many goals per 60 minutes of play even strength...basically tells you who is making the most production out of the time they are given on the ice.

Looked at the Sabres forwards (excluding anyone with only a handful of games):

The top 5 forwards for the Sabres in goals per 60:  1. Peterka  2. Thompson 3. Skinner  4. Tuch  5. Benson

The bottom 5 forwards in goals per 60 so far:  Worst:  Krebs  2nd worst:  Girgensons  3rd worst:  Jost   4th worst:  Greenway  5th worst: Cozens

Of course that leaves VO, Mitts, and Okposo in the middle

Benson a bit surprising to me. Its not automatic that he gets more goals with more ice time, but I'm ready to give him that chance.  His goals per 60 is 1.26. That would pretty much put him on the top 5 on this team any of the last few years.  I'd want to see his ice time bumped up and see if he can continue at that pace.

Not responding to this post in particular, but didn't feel like going back to find one of your posts about their lack of PP scoring being a big part of their reduced goal production from last year.  Wanted to point out it was about now (actually about a week earlier) that the PP magic we saw last year from the end of October into December disappeared and they went back to what they are now - a slightly below 15% PP team.

So, from here on out, it'll be ES scoring that isn't where it was last year if the gap in scoring between the 2 versions of this team continues to increase.  Provided the PP doesn't go on a Penguins style 2 for 40 stretch or something else horrifically bad rather than simply bad.

Btw, you've made some great observations on their in-zone play.  Would add their neutral zone positioning is also bad and leads to far too many entries for the opponents and too many intercepted attempts at clears.

[Marvin]

I do not like what Granato said at all.  The players can always learn positional defence and learn to be more conservative in zone exits while still attacking.

[GoPuckYourself]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:20 PM, bunomatic said:

Not sure Levy would hold up to the run and gun. A goalie like Hasek in his prime would have been most excellent with this current team. But Levy ?

Old man Anderson did it, no excuse why the rookie can’t imo. 

[bunomatic]

3 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Old man Anderson did it, no excuse why the rookie can’t imo. 

Yeah the old guy had years of experience the young pup, not much.

[inkman]

On 12/21/2023 at 11:20 PM, bunomatic said:

Not sure Levy would hold up to the run and gun. A goalie like Hasek in his prime would have been most excellent with this current team. But Levy ?

Marv? Eugene?

[irregularly irregular]

14 minutes ago, inkman said:

Marv? Eugene?

Canadian spelling. Give a good fan a break. 

[Doohickie]

The Sabres *will* return to the run and gun, and *will* win 8 of their next 10.

[PerreaultForever]

Not sure what you mean by "go back to" as they really haven't changed much. When teams let them play that way(like the leafs did) they run and gun their way to victory. Problem is there are 2 teams on the ice. 

Good teams have the ability to adapt to what the opposition does. Sabres are a long way from that yet. 

[pi2000]

So we're back to firewagon hockey which is fun, but isn't a sustainable winning brand of hockey.

IMO, thi is an indictment of Granato and his staff... namely, their inability to implement a defensively responsible system while not completely neutralizing their ability to generate offense.   

This failed attempt has likely cost them a playoff birth.

[Marvin]

6 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

So we're back to firewagon hockey which is fun, but isn't a sustainable winning brand of hockey.

IMO, thi is an indictment of Granato and his staff... namely, their inability to implement a defensively responsible system while not completely neutralizing their ability to generate offense.   

This failed attempt has likely cost them a playoff birth.

Don't exclude the players' responsibility for the defencive failures.

[mjd1001]

20 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Don't exclude the players' responsibility for the defencive failures.

Yeah, I put it as much on the players as I do coaching. Actually, the part that is coaching, I don't put so much on Granato (maybe he is a part of it) but on the staff in Rochester.  Those guys down there play less games, they have more time to practice and watch film. It should be drilled into their heads over and over and over defensive zone positioning....who to pick up when the puck cycles, to never leave the slot wide open..etc.  Coaching, that is an organizational thing that needs to happen in Buffalo but should have been done in Rochester because from what I can tell, the Amerks are pretty bad at it also.

And as far as the style, I am 100% happy with them giving up more odd-man rushes in order to get more. This team needs to improve defensively when they are playing 'half court' defense, not worry so much about the fast breaks.

 

Edited December 27, 2023 by mjd1001

[pi2000]

10 minutes ago, Marvin said:

Don't exclude the players' responsibility for the defencive failures.

If it's one or 2 or a small group of players who are not listening, then he needs to hold them accountable and limit their ice time until they fall in line. 

That said, I won't completely absolve the players... however, if the entire team is faltering, then that's either a system problem or a coaching problem, or both. 

This first third of the season seemed like a discovery process... can they reduce goals against by playing a more defensively responsible system?    The answer was yes, but they sacrificed too much offense in the process.    That, combined with some poor goaltending (thanks Kevyn!) and you're gonna be on the wrong end of it most nights... and Granato's answer is just "let's go back to firewagon hockey!".     I don't see this as progress, it's regression.

IMO the solution is two-fold...  solidify the goaltending position and find a coach who can teach this young impressionable group how to play a winning brand of pro hockey.     

[mjd1001]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

If it's one or 2 or a small group of players who are not listening, then he needs to hold them accountable and limit their ice time until they fall in line. 

That said, I won't completely absolve the players... however, if the entire team is faltering, then that's either a system problem or a coaching problem, or both. 

This first third of the season seemed like a discovery process... can they reduce goals against by playing a more defensively responsible system?    The answer was yes, but they sacrificed too much offense in the process.    That, combined with some poor goaltending (thanks Kevyn!) and you're gonna be on the wrong end of it most nights... and Granato's answer is just "let's go back to firewagon hockey!".     I don't see this as progress, it's regression.

IMO the solution is two-fold...  solidify the goaltending position and find a coach who can teach this young impressionable group how to play a winning brand of pro hockey.     

I think it isn't just one or two players, its a team wide/organization wide thing:

-Okposo...hes a 'vet' but he makes plenty of mistakes in his own zone.  Leaves open areas, doesn't know where to go. He never has played for a team in his career that excelled defensively.

-Peterka, Benson and Krebs do a lot of 'stick waving' They could engage people more than they do.

-Cozens.  Probably the worst player at abandoning his man and leaving wide open areas of the ice for opposing players to walk in, just so he chases the puck. I know others love him, but He might be in the bottom 10% of players who know how to play in the defensive zone.

-Mitts has gotten better, but he still does a lot of stick waving. Skinner likes to hang around the blue line and not go in too deep to help.  Tuch and Thompson have good games and bad games.

The only person I rarely see out of position, rarely leaving his side of the ice wide open to chase a puck is Girgensons.  But a lot of people want him off this team for whatever reason, even though he might be the single one, the only sound forward on this team in his own end.