Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[LGR4GM]

50 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And called that in GA's thread about this 4 game stretch being THE defining point of the season.  (It is, in that it's the current games to be played, which are always defining in a way; but it isn't because they're still showing us the same things they've shown us all year.  And that's tangential to this discussion anyhow.)  The bipolarity of this board that we'll experience these last 25 games is going to be worth the price of admission.

But the thought that the "panickers" (and really don't like that description of the people hopping off the bandwagon, however briefly) moved to Pittsburgh was the reason for the emoji @doohickie took exception to.  They're all still here, and with a loss to Caps, or even worse, the BJ's and they'll all be overly consternated again.

And agree wholeheartedly with your final sentiment.

Yup, we're a talented offensive team with bad goaltending and mediocre defense that hasn't quite developed enough experience to more consistent. 

That said, get a mofo defender Adams.

[pi2000]

On 2/21/2023 at 12:51 PM, pi2000 said:

Yep... they'll need a points percentage of around .560 to keep pace, which is roughly 18 out of 32 points.   

A few other teams could get hot, so yeah 20-22 probably needed to stay within reach.

4 games into this 16 in 28 day stretch they've collected 6 out of 8 possible points (.750).   

The next 4 are CBJ, @BOS, TBL, EDM. 

 If they collect 3 of 8 points, that puts then at .562 points% for the first 8 games. 4 points would put them at .625.

[Taro T]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

4 games into this 16 in 28 day stretch they've collected 6 out of 8 possible points (.750).   

The next 4 are CBJ, @BOS, TBL, EDM. 

 If they collect 3 of 8 points, that puts then at .562 points% for the first 8 games. 4 points would put them at .625.

The realistic goal should be 6 out of those 8.  Anything less than 4 will be a significant disappointment.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Here are the Athletic's latest playoff prognostications for the East

Pit - 75%

NYI - 38%

Fla - 36%

Buf - 29%

Det - 19%

https://theathletic.com/3666576/2023/02/27/nhl-2022-23-stanley-cup-playoff-chances-and-projected-standings/

Of these 5 teams, Fla (64 pts) has played the 2nd most game and has the lowest winning % (.525) and they currently sit 5th in the wild card race.

The NYI have played the most games (63) and has the 2nd lowest winning % (.548).  

Buffalo is currently in 3rd in the WC standings with 66 pts.  The Sabres have the highest winning % of the group (.569), have played the least no of games and have the highest differential.  

To put it mildly, the Athletic's model is crap.

538 has Pitt at 60, Buffalo at 45, NYI at 37, Fla at 27, and Det at 18.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nhl-predictions/

Moneypuck has Pitt at 63, Buf at 51.7, NYI at 34.5, Fla at 30, and Det at 10. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Hockey-reference has Buf at 57.6, Pit at 55.6, NYI at 36.5, Det at 23.6, and Fla at 12.3. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

 

One of the models is not like the others.

 

 

[Marvin]

At the beginning of the season, who had the Sabres as buyers at the trade deadline?  I sure didn't.

[DarthEbriate]

20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are the Athletic's latest playoff prognostications for the East

Pit - 75%

NYI - 38%

Fla - 36%

Buf - 29%

Det - 19%

https://theathletic.com/3666576/2023/02/27/nhl-2022-23-stanley-cup-playoff-chances-and-projected-standings/

...

To put it mildly, the Athletic's model is crap.

It's not crap; it's working as designed. However, their model all about regression and is slower to react to breakout players. https://theathletic.com/1019070/2019/06/14/improving-our-nhl-projection-model-ahead-of-the-2019-20-season/    

The Athletic's model takes the player's past 3 seasons into account. It's really accurate if you're looking at the Penguins. You've got Crosby, Malkin, Letang, and a goalie of some sort and you're in the playoffs every year. If they're all trending downward, the model will begin to capture that and say, "This window is shut." Or, if say: Giroux and DeBrincat who have previous years of awesomeness join the Sens this model says "Two near-point-per-game players added to the lineup... hell yes!"

The Sabres don't get that benefit. They get 1/2 season of top-level Tuch, one season of Skinner, one season of TNT-version Thompson. They get points, but only 1/2 season of post-2022 ASG defense Dahlin. They don't get data on JJP or Quinn or Power. And they get their goaltending: Comrie would be the highest rated the past three seasons. They're also still carrying 1.5 seasons of the Krueger effect on almost everyone.

Next year, look for The Athletic's rating of the Sabres to jump substantially, and then the year afterward -- once Krueger Effect is gone and we've got 3 seasons of TNT, no "healthy scratch Skinner", and Norris-Dahlin... that's when the Sabres will be atop the world with that model.

And --- it sort of makes sense. The NHL is slow-changing in terms of playoff participants each season, so the 3-year aggregate sort of works. Compare that with an NFL where 1/3 of the playoff teams switch from season to season -- there, you're probably just looking at QB play as the safest guess for who makes the playoffs.

What will be curious is how much the model could be adjusted this next summer in terms of its weighting because of teams like the Sabres/Devils who get big contributions from kids without much 3-year history.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@DarthEbriate if you model can’t react to a developing team, coaching changes or new players then your model is crap.

Edited February 27, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[DarthEbriate]

17 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@DarthEbriate if you model can’t react to a developing team, coaching changes or new players then your model is crap.

It does, but more slowly. It also, by design, is only looking at players. I'd have to research the others to see how much consideration is taken for coaching or even how they'd calculate that if it wasn't something consistently established like a Torts-defensive-shell. If you want something super-reactive, there are always power rankings.

The alternate side of it is this: if the Sabres inexplicably miss the playoffs in 2027 after a rash of injuries and a key UFA departure, a bunch of reactive folks will predict that they're done. The Athletic's more stable model will look back at 2025 and 2026 and correctly say: nope, this team is still a top-notch Cup-contender in 2028.

[bob_sauve28]

I could see this team really doing well in a long playoff grind. The more they play, the better they do, it seems. 

 

Though if they do blow out a team, a long layoff might kill them 

[aristocrat]

7 minutes ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I could see this team really doing well in a long playoff grind. The more they play, the better they do, it seems. 

 

Though if they do blow out a team, a long layoff might kill them 

If we get a hot goalie this team could make a run. Just don't want to face Boston in the first round I'd much rather get Car 

[bob_sauve28]

6 minutes ago, aristocrat said:

If we get a hot goalie this team could make a run. Just don't want to face Boston in the first round I'd much rather get Car 

I'd think Anderson would get the nod in the playoffs, but for how long? 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I could see this team really doing well in a long playoff grind. The more they play, the better they do, it seems. 

 

Though if they do blow out a team, a long layoff might kill them 

See the 1980 Sabres.  They had an 11 day layoff after sweeping Chicago and they were sloppy as all get-out in games 1 and 2 against the Islanders, which they both lost narrowly.  Had they won 1 of those, they might have been Stanley Cup Champions instead of the Islanders.

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, bob_sauve28 said:

I could see this team really doing well in a long playoff grind. The more they play, the better they do, it seems. 

 

Though if they do blow out a team, a long layoff might kill them 

This is true. They have had a couple breaks this season that they've come back a bit sluggish from, particularly TNT, and it's taken them a few games to get back up to speed.

That said, I still want them to go on a bender the 2nd half of March, coupled with losses by competitors so that in April the Sabres can work in Levi (and Portillo) and Johnson while still coasting into the playoffs. Best of all worlds.

Edited February 28, 2023 by DarthEbriate

[bob_sauve28]

57 minutes ago, Marvin said:

See the 1980 Sabres.  They had an 11 day layoff after sweeping Chicago and they were sloppy as all get-out in games 1 and 2 against the Islanders, which they both lost narrowly.  Had they won 1 of those, they might have been Stanley Cup Champions instead of the Islanders.

If they started Bob Sauve they would of done better 😇

[Thorny]

Ok how about this - 

We are far enough into the season that we’re at the point where if you go to nhl.com and click on the standings, it automatically sorts by *wildcard standings* - and the sabres are in a spot by points % at this time. 
 

Super Stat or Meaningless Number? 

Wish I could simply say “in it”, but, that’s the best possible skew. Islanders situation is so tricky. By math we’d make up the 4 points with our games in hand but they’ve got the tiebreaker. So as of now we’ll always need to think about getting that one extra point more. In reality still plenty to go anyways, really. About our play over the final 21 obviously much more than just that 4 games. Looking pretty good so far 

Edited March 4, 2023 by Thorny

[Scottysabres]

Was talking to some who went to the game today about how good the young guns look on this team. During the convo I was asked if this reminded me of any of the Sabres teams I saw over the years.

I thought on that for a moment, then it struck me, I told them no, even the team I watched back in the 70's had more veterans present on the the roster. But what struck me was the thought of just how close the bond is growing between this group. Dahlin, Power, Quinn, Thompson, Tuch, Samuelsson, JJ, Joker, Olofsson, Jost, Krebs and even UPL. These guys are going to look back years from now and know just how special of a group they are together.

I expressed that in the comvo, then immediately after that comment, I told everyone "and Pegula better not **** this up because of some nostalgic flashback or some ****"

They all looked at me, it was quiet for a good minute then we all started laughing. As we parted ways after that, I knew I had planted the seeds of PA in 5 other Sabres fans. It was a good day,  the end.

🤣 

[FrenchConnection44]

It's going to be a tough road to the playoffs. But, it should be a fair test. We play the Islanders, with whom we are in the battle, twice. And Ottawa once. Both teams made big upgrades. Nothing I would love more than to see both lose out on the playoffs! Have long hated the Isles and now hate the Sens for that Chychrun deal. 

if we make it we will surely have earned it. We have a shot at either the 7th or 8th seed. Either one of those seeds will be brutal, imo, as its either Boston or Carolina. 

But just getting in the playoffs would be a huge deal, imo. Even if we were slammed. It would give us a taste. 

Let's Go Buffalo!!!!

 

 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Two huge games coming up the next two nights.  Tomorrow is our game in hand over Pittsburgh and then on Tuesday we play a rested NYI team while Pitt plays CBJ.

Two wins by the Sabres, puts the Sabres into one of the wild card spots.  2 wins coupled with a Pitt loss puts us into the 1st WC spot. 

[Pimlach]

8 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two huge games coming up the next two nights.  Tomorrow is our game in hand over Pittsburgh and then on Tuesday we play a rested NYI team while Pitt plays CBJ.

Two wins by the Sabres, puts the Sabres into one of the wild card spots.  2 wins coupled with a Pitt loss puts us into the 1st WC spot. 

Yes.  The next two are big.  If we win both it really would help us down the road, and there are 20 more.  
 

So glad Dahlin is back.  Hoping Greenway adds some immediate spark.  

[DarthEbriate]

RJ is yelling at us everyday, "Not out!"

[JohnC]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two huge games coming up the next two nights.  Tomorrow is our game in hand over Pittsburgh and then on Tuesday we play a rested NYI team while Pitt plays CBJ.

Two wins by the Sabres, puts the Sabres into one of the wild card spots.  2 wins coupled with a Pitt loss puts us into the 1st WC spot. 

My instincts tell me that this race is going to the finish line. Being in a playoff position after this week doesn't mean that we will end up there. And not being in a playoff position doesn't mean that we won't get in. The emotional roller coaster will be going on for the rest of the season where people will be in a state of despair one day, and then in in another day be in a state of exultation. And then that sequence will be flipped. This has been both an exasperating and fun team to follow this year. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, JohnC said:

My instincts tell me that this race is going to the finish line. Being in a playoff position after this week doesn't mean that we will end up there. And not being in a playoff position doesn't mean that we won't get in. The emotional roller coaster will be going on for the rest of the season where people will be in a state of despair one day, and then in in another day be in a state of exultation. And then that sequence will be flipped. This has been both an exasperating and fun team to follow this year. 

Oh it’s going to the wire, but the more wins we bank now, the more pressure we can put on the teams behind us. Det has already folded.  Wash is on the verge.  Ott has played their way back into it.  It seems like a 4 team race, but Fla can also play their way back in.

[Eleven]

9 minutes ago, JohnC said:

people will be in a state of despair one day, and then in in another day be in a state of exultation

On SabreSpace?  Never!

[LGR4GM]

Every game is huge now. 

[bob_sauve28]

8 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Two huge games coming up the next two nights.  Tomorrow is our game in hand over Pittsburgh and then on Tuesday we play a rested NYI team while Pitt plays CBJ.

Two wins by the Sabres, puts the Sabres into one of the wild card spots.  2 wins coupled with a Pitt loss puts us into the 1st WC spot. 

And neither game will be on MSG? 😧