Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Oh it’s going to the wire, but the more wins we bank now, the more pressure we can put on the teams behind us. Det has already folded.  Wash is on the verge.  Ott has played their way back into it.  It seems like a 4 team race, but Fla can also play their way back in.

The Sabres have some games on hand with the Islanders but it seems that they have stabilized and are going to make a run. Ottawa is another team that I am wary of. They are getting better and more confident. 

And you are right that when you are at a bank it is important to make a deposit to later draw from. 

[inkman]

I need the media to chill with the pts percentage nonsense.  Not every fan is going to get it and they will assume the Sabres are in the playoffs. 

[PromoTheRobot]

12 minutes ago, inkman said:

I need the media to chill with the pts percentage nonsense.  Not every fan is going to get it and they will assume the Sabres are in the playoffs. 

And give people hope.

 

[PromoTheRobot]

On 2/27/2023 at 5:45 PM, GASabresIUFAN said:

Here are the Athletic's latest playoff prognostications for the East

Pit - 75%

NYI - 38%

Fla - 36%

Buf - 29%

Det - 19%

https://theathletic.com/3666576/2023/02/27/nhl-2022-23-stanley-cup-playoff-chances-and-projected-standings/

Of these 5 teams, Fla (64 pts) has played the 2nd most game and has the lowest winning % (.525) and they currently sit 5th in the wild card race.

The NYI have played the most games (63) and has the 2nd lowest winning % (.548).  

Buffalo is currently in 3rd in the WC standings with 66 pts.  The Sabres have the highest winning % of the group (.569), have played the least no of games and have the highest differential.  

To put it mildly, the Athletic's model is crap.

538 has Pitt at 60, Buffalo at 45, NYI at 37, Fla at 27, and Det at 18.  https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2023-nhl-predictions/

Moneypuck has Pitt at 63, Buf at 51.7, NYI at 34.5, Fla at 30, and Det at 10. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

Hockey-reference has Buf at 57.6, Pit at 55.6, NYI at 36.5, Det at 23.6, and Fla at 12.3. https://www.moneypuck.com/predictions.htm

 

One of the models is not like the others.

 

 

The Athletic uses their own season predictions as a starting point, so garbage in/garbage out.

Edited March 6, 2023 by PromoTheRobot

[inkman]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

And give people hope.

 

I mean…I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Either fans are too dumb to understand points percentage or they are too lazy to look at the standings and figure things out for themselves.  

[PromoTheRobot]

1 minute ago, inkman said:

I mean…I guess it’s a matter of perspective. Either fans are too dumb to understand points percentage or they are too lazy to look at the standings and figure things out for themselves.  

I'm finding most fans are barely paying attention. That's why there's so much Twitter vitriol after a home loss. 

1) "Sabres suck"

2) Sees buzz about team 

3) Attends game only to see them lose.

4) Feels duped.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

If the Lightning keep losing, that spot could be available as well. I think they have lost 5 in a row. 

[inkman]

Just now, PromoTheRobot said:

I'm finding most fans are barely paying attention. That's why there's so much Twitter vitriol after a home loss. 

1) "Sabres suck"

2) Sees buzz about team 

3) Attends game only to see them lose.

4) Feels duped.

I agree. I feel like the casual fans will get led on by points percentage and if the Sabres lose their last couple and fail to get in, the casual can be like “Chad Deedee doodoo” told me they were in the playoffs.  Fire Kevyn for not getting more points percentage.  

[GASabresIUFAN]

15 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

The Athletic uses their own season predictions as a starting point, so garbage in/garbage out.

Their model has gone off the deep end.  

The numbers were updated yesterday.  According to the Athletic, the Sabres' playoff chances are down to 14% (tied with Ott).  Florida is at 41%, the NYI 47%, Wash 9% and  Pit 77%.

538 - Pit 69, NYI 41, Fla & Buf 30, Ott 17, Wash 15

Moneypuck - Pitt 88, NYI 41.6, Ott 28.7, Buf 21.5, F 17.7, Wash 10.9

Hockey-reference - Pit 62.6, NYI 44.9, B 38.5, Ott 24.1, Wash 16.6, F 15.5

Edited March 6, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[WhenWillItEnd66]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Their model has gone off the deep end.  

The numbers were updated yesterday.  According to the Athletic, the Sabres' playoff chances are down to 14% (tied with Ott).  Florida is at 41%, the NYI 47%, and  Pit 77%.

That seems about right. The Sabres end of season schedule is Killer

[aristocrat]

Win tonight and beat the Isles tomorrow night and at the end of month would be the end ofthe isles season

[GASabresIUFAN]

2 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

That seems about right. The Sabres end of season schedule is Killer

Do you think Fla is more likely to come out of the Atlantic vs the Sabres and hard-charging Ott? Remember Buffalo has 3 games in hand on the Panthers.  Fla is 31-33.  Buffalo is 32-29 when you combine L's and OTL's.

Right now Ott scares me more than Fla.  I think the Panthers will play themselves out of this.  The NYI have the goaltending to contend until the end.  Pitt has Crosby and tons of experience.  Ott and Buffalo are the young up-and-comers.  Fla, Imho, has lost its identity.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

1 minute ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Do you think Fla is more likely to come out of the Atlantic vs the Sabres and hard-charging Ott? Remember Buffalo has 3 games in hand on the Panthers.  Fla is 31-33.  Buffalo is 32-29 when you combine L's and OTL's.

Right now Ott scares me more than Fla.  I think the Panthers will play themselves out of this.  The NYI have the goaltending to contend until the end.  Pitt has Crosby and tons of experience.  Ott and Buffalo are the young up-and-comers.  Fla, Imho, has lost its identity.

This is up to the Sabres TBH. Depends which Sabres team shows up this last 20 games. We have 3 against NYI, win those and that will knock NYI down hard. I like OTT as they are young, fast, tough and hard to play against. Not too worried about FL and TB seems to be falling hard as well. They do not look like they have chemistry. All of this is moot though if the Sabres play like Bad Sabres...LOL

[GASabresIUFAN]

6 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

Sabres play like Bad Sabres.

True

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Have to say though, if they can keep playing like they did against Tampa.... That was nice and aggressive and hitting and disrupting, they have enough talent to take some of the big boys on as long as our goaltending holds

[inkman]

30 minutes ago, Stormcloudmember66 said:

Have to say though, if they can keep playing like they did against Tampa.... That was nice and aggressive and hitting and disrupting, they have enough talent to take some of the big boys on as long as our goaltending holds

Tampa was gassed and played like ass 

[LGR4GM]

The question is, has Buffalo realized the fun times of December have given way to the playoff race of March? There are no off nights anymore where you can show up 1 period and win. Everyone is coming for you, every shift, every night. 

[dudacek]

Only thing to pay attention to about runs is that they don't tend to last.

It might be more about last run wins.

As far as the Sabres go, they haven't played particularly well lately.

They are going to need to play better.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

31 minutes ago, inkman said:

Tampa was gassed and played like ass 

They are on a decent losing streak and getting their buts kicked by everyone.... Their age is showing i think

[DarthEbriate]

While Tampa has looked like garbage, I'm not sure any of the wild card teams should worry about them. To make up the 11 points in the standings, the Sabres will need 6 more wins than them the rest of the way.

Even if TBL goes a pretty poor 8-12 in their final 20, BUF would need to be 14-7 (well above current pace) to get to 96 points over TB's 95.

Now, if TBL loses another 5 in a row, then things get interesting....

[GASabresIUFAN]

How many do points do we think they’ll need? 92? 95? More? With 21 games left, I think points is the goal.  That means at least 12-13 more win plus some loser points. 
 

If we can beat the non-playoff teams plus the other teams fighting for a Wild Card on the schedule, that would be 13 wins.  The remaining 8 games are top 3 divisional teams, 3 of which are near the season’s end.  Hopefully they’ll be resting some players for the players increasing the Sabres chances in those games.

5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

While Tampa has looked like garbage, I'm not sure any of the wild card teams should worry about them. To make up the 11 points in the standings, the Sabres will need 6 more wins than them the rest of the way.

Even if TBL goes a pretty poor 8-12 in their final 20, BUF would need to be 14-7 (well above current pace) to get to 96 points over TB's 95.

Now, if TBL loses another 5 in a row, then things get interesting....

I noted earlier that the Sabres picked up 5 pts on TB in the last 10 games.  With 21 games left, if both teams play at their recent paces, that divisional spot could be up for grabs the last couple of games.

[DarthEbriate]

42 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

How many do points do we think they’ll need? 92? 95? More? With 21 games left, I think points is the goal.  That means at least 12-13 more win plus some loser points. 

If we can beat the non-playoff teams plus the other teams fighting for a Wild Card on the schedule, that would be 13 wins.  The remaining 8 games are top 3 divisional teams, 3 of which are near the season’s end.  Hopefully they’ll be resting some players for the players increasing the Sabres chances in those games.

I noted earlier that the Sabres picked up 5 pts on TB in the last 10 games.  With 21 games left, if both teams play at their recent paces, that divisional spot could be up for grabs the last couple of games.

How many points does the final wildcard need?

Tampa could free-fall, but I also think they still have time to catch themselves and crank out a 4-1 stretch with Vasilevskiy saying "Enough!". That puts an end to the regular season by April. Then, they could easily fold again including in the playoffs.

[Taro T]

14 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Every game is huge now. 

They always are.  It's just now the team feels the urgency of that truth.

[Taro T]

45 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

How many points does the final wildcard need?

Tampa could free-fall, but I also think they still have time to catch themselves and crank out a 4-1 stretch with Vasilevskiy saying "Enough!". That puts an end to the regular season by April. Then, they could easily fold again including in the playoffs.

If Tampa can't pick up the pace over where they've been since hosting the Sabres 2 weeks ago, they'll get 11 points in their last 19 games and finish the year at 90 points.  They need to significantly pick up their play to get to an NHL 0.400 which would give them 95.  

If the Sabres play NHL 0.600 down the stretch they'll end with 93 points.  Find a way to get 1 extra win over these final 21 games and things get really interesting.  And if they could find a way to get to a full season NHL 0.600 they're locks.

[pi2000]

Not too worried about Ottawa.   They've had a cupcake schedule the past 3 weeks.   However, their final 15 games are brutal... with their final game of the season at Buffalo.