Are the Sabres out of the running for the playoffs?

[nfreeman]

42 minutes ago, Pimlach said:

They need more commitment to team defense.  

Against SJ they were carelessly throwing the puck around in their end, good teams will bury them if they play like that.

They have a lot of skill and they tend to get too cute on breakouts and they get too cute on scoring chances.   

I agree that to advance in the playoffs and generally to step up in class from bubble team to contender the D needs to improve substantially.

I think that kind of change is less achievable and less likely to occur this season, to get them into the platyoffs, than PP improvement and home ice improvement.

[Pimlach]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

Within this link there is a 9 min segment on WGR where Granato talks about the need to shoot and not get too fancy. What you said is exactly what the coach is saying and imploring. When in doubt: Shoot the dam puck!

https://www.audacy.com/wgr550/hosts/sabres-live

The getting cute and over passing in the offensive zone is often discussed.  Pay close attention to the defensive play.  They even over pass in their own zone. The forwards have to be more intense on getting the puck over the blue line. That means taking a hit and also giving a hit.  

Edited February 21, 2023 by Pimlach

[Pimlach]

54 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I agree that to advance in the playoffs and generally to step up in class from bubble team to contender the D needs to improve substantially.

I think that kind of change is less achievable and less likely to occur this season, to get them into the platyoffs, than PP improvement and home ice improvement.

Probably so.  When I talk about the D, I also mean the way the forwards play in their defensive zone.  Team defense.  

[pi2000]

Well here we go... Tonight they embark on a stretch of 16 games in 28 days. 

They'll need at least 23-24 out of a possible 32 points to stay in the wildcard race. 

[Taro T]

22 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Well here we go... Tonight they embark on a stretch of 16 games in 28 days. 

They'll need at least 23-24 out of a possible 32 points to stay in the wildcard race. 

IF they take 24 points over this stretch, they are the team the others are chasing.

19-20 points keep them solidly in the mix.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Although much improved, they will not make the Playoffs IMHO. There are too many teams that can shut us down and we do not have the players (or plan) to answer them. I DO think that teams like Toronto we would do better against as we play similar styles....But, any team that plays us tight and heavy forechecks shuts us down with no answer in sight to be able to counter. Until they figure that out, we will stay out of the playoff spot. We may keep it close but it will not be enough. This is something that needs to be seriously addressed or this team will continually miss the playoffs.

[Mango]

55 minutes ago, Taro T said:

IF they take 24 points over this stretch, they are the team the others are chasing.

19-20 points keep them solidly in the mix.

If we collect 5 of the next 10 points this month we’re right there in the 7/8 seed and it’s ours to lose going forward. 

 

I agree, 24/32 feels aggressively high just to “stay alive”. They’d be firmly in the drivers seat at that point.  

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, Mango said:

If we collect 5 of the next 10 points this month we’re right there in the 7/8 seed and it’s ours to lose going forward. 

 

I agree, 24/32 feels aggressively high just to “stay alive”. They’d be firmly in the drivers seat at that point.  

5 points out of the next 10 very likely wouldn’t have us “there” in the 7th seed with it being ours to lose going forward in that Pittsburgh is already ahead based on points % for that spot and we’d probably lose ground. It would keep us within striking distance, if that’s what you mean. But I wouldn’t say it’s ours to lose. 

I do agree 8th is ours to lose as things stand: if we play at the exact pace we’ve already established over a large sample size, over the games we have remaining, we’d finish 8th if all others did the same. 5/10 points could still have us in 8th by %, ya

Edited February 21, 2023 by Thorny

[pi2000]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

IF they take 24 points over this stretch, they are the team the others are chasing.

19-20 points keep them solidly in the mix.

Yep... they'll need a points percentage of around .560 to keep pace, which is roughly 18 out of 32 points.   

A few other teams could get hot, so yeah 20-22 probably needed to stay within reach.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

Yep... they'll need a points percentage of around .560 to keep pace, which is roughly 18 out of 32 points.   

A few other teams could get hot, so yeah 20-22 probably needed to stay within reach.

19-20 is right around an NHL 0.600.  That will be fine to keep from falling too much further back when somebody gets hot.

[Pimlach]

really getting excited about tonight. 

 

Its the Leaves, it is at "home", we need the points for playoffs, and the ROR factor is added.   

[Spoonman]

On 2/20/2023 at 3:37 PM, inkman said:

 

 

I’m enjoying the fact that this is even a consideration this time of year.  I’m starting to cringe at the “all they gotta do is…”’ crowd that is dominating the inter webs.  This team is going to lose a bunch more games.  It’s going to get a little hairy or frankly really disappointing sometime soon. Everyone needs to chill out. 
 

When I start hearing WGR spouting stuff like “if you go by point percentage, the Sabres are in the playoffs” nonsense that I hear every time they come back from commercial, it gets annoying.  Fans are all gettting their hopes up for a team that still is less than a coin flip to make the playoffs. 

I am good with hopes being up  vs.

Edited February 22, 2023 by Spoonman

[Spoonman]

 

ROR & queefs

[Spoonman]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

really getting excited about tonight. 

 

Its the Leaves, it is at "home", we need the points for playoffs, and the ROR factor is added.   

What is the % of Sabre loyalists v. Queefs? I remember Sabre fans charge up the Ying Yang for these tix (I would’nt), but WT hey.

[Gatorman0519]

This team will be picking top 10. 

[Curt]

2 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This team will be picking top 10. 

Possibly but unlikely.

[Porous Five Hole]

3 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This team will be picking top 10. 

Not without winning the lottery.  
 

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

 

[Two or less]

3 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

This team will be picking top 10. 

lol some of you guys really react poorly to losses. They won't be picking top 10, relax.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, Two or less said:

lol some of you guys really react poorly to losses. They won't be picking top 10, relax.

Agree, the negativity in here is worse than the 83 All-Stars 

- - - 

Personally I think it’s a tip off to the fact people sometimes still get a smidgen too “high”, outside the GDTs between games, at this stage, with the inverse being the GDTs, during a loss, roller-coaster the other way.

 

Edited February 22, 2023 by Thorny

[inkman]

7 hours ago, Two or less said:

lol some of you guys really react poorly to losses. They won't be picking top 10, relax.

 

37 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Agree, the negativity in here is worse than the 83 All-Stars 

- - - 

Personally I think it’s a tip off to the fact people sometimes still get a smidgen too “high”, outside the GDTs between games, at this stage, with the inverse being the GDTs, during a loss, roller-coaster the other way.

 

I don’t know what you expect when they literally lose in the worst fashion ever. I could not have predicted a worse outcome. I miss the days when this franchise had sucked all the hope out of me and I didn’t care at all about anything they did. 

[Thorny]

It was a common L

we’ve been losing half our games all year

when teams lose sometimes it’s by a lot. I know for a FACT we do that to other teams b/c our goal differential is good and proportionally better than our record. I can also just remember the games. We just scored 7 goals, no?

if we were occasionally running up teams, but never getting run up in turn, we wouldn’t be the 2022-23 sabres, we’d be the 2022-23 Hurricanes.

said the same thing to GA: not yesterday, not the next 4 games defines the season. Yesterday looks like a big blip sitting right beside that mountain the next day but if you pan out it’s one hill in a long line of ups and downs that looks like a mixed bag, when we’ve built from only Death Valley. Losing to the leafs sucks but objectively it’s not special nor is it revelatory. Not diminishing your frustration and pain in losing - I just know you actually know that it’s better than feeling nothing for the team at all 
 

[GASabresIUFAN]

I said before the Toronto game that the next 4 games would be a referendum on the Sabres season.  Play well and the playoffs become significantly more likely.  Play poorly and the playoffs could easily slip away.

Game 1 against Tor, by all accounts, they played awful, especially in the first. If they can move past this and win the next 3, then they stay on track. 

Sadly, in the last 4 games against playoff teams, our record is 0-4 with 23 goals allowed and only 8 goals for.  This is not the type of hockey that will propel a young team to the playoffs.  What if particularly awful was getting down 4-0 against both Tor and Car in the first, down 5-0 early in the 3rd to LA, and then allowing 7 straight against Calgary.  

I don't know if it's a lack of depth on offense, the entire defense, game planning, goaltending, or a combo of all 4, but a team trying to make the playoffs simply can't have these types of long stretches of terrible play. 

 

 

[mjd1001]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I said before the Toronto game that the next 4 games would be a referendum on the Sabres season.  Play well and the playoffs become significantly more likely.  Play poorly and the playoffs could easily slip away.

Game 1 against Tor, by all accounts, they played awful, especially in the first. If they can move past this and win the next 3, then they stay on track. 

Sadly, in the last 4 games against playoff teams, our record is 0-4 with 23 goals allowed and only 8 goals for.  This is not the type of hockey that will propel a young team to the playoffs.  What if particularly awful was getting down 4-0 against both Tor and Car in the first, down 5-0 early in the 3rd to LA, and then allowing 7 straight against Calgary.  

I don't know if it's a lack of depth on offense, the entire defense, game planning, goaltending, or a combo of all 4, but a team trying to make the playoffs simply can't have these types of long stretches of terrible play. 

 

 

I posted soemthing like this in a differerent thread but I think it applies to the comments you made here also.

When the Sabres lose, I don't see it as a lack of overall talent, or a lack of effort, or a lack of toughness.  I see it has 20% "puck luck" due to the style they play (D-men push up the ice so much, sometimes it helps you score, sometimes you get caught up the ice and it burns you), but 80% is mistakes or bad positioning.   Against playoff teams, they have enough experience that they will 'counter punch' what you do.  They have film on the Sabres, they know how they play. Those good, experienced teams wait for the Sabres to make a mistake or be out of position and then caplitilize on it.  The Sabres can get away with it agains 'lesser' teams because the Sabres either have just more talent, OR the 'lesser teams' positioning is just as bad as the Sabres and they aren't in position to capitilize on it.

A GREAT goaltender can also cover up a lot of the mistakes the Sabres make, but they don't have that right now.

And Yes, the Sabres make a lot of mistakes especially with positioning on their goals allowed. But I think that comes from the lack of experience and lack of communication. Those things should get better over time.  It won't all happe in a week or two though, it might take a half season, a season, or more.

[WhenWillItEnd66]

I believe this will be cemented after where we are next weekend. We We need to show we can hang with them. If not, then there is always next year.... and the year after that, and the year after that....LOL 

[Two or less]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

Agree, the negativity in here is worse than the 83 All-Stars 

- - - 

Personally I think it’s a tip off to the fact people sometimes still get a smidgen too “high”, outside the GDTs between games, at this stage, with the inverse being the GDTs, during a loss, roller-coaster the other way.

 

For the last # of years if the word “playoffs” even gets brought up on wgr, twitter or even here, quickly people would be like “playoffs?! I would skate through a brick wall for just meaningful games feb and March!” 

Sabres finally got us to this point and get overwhelmed against one of the best teams in the league, in a highly anticipated game at home with like 60% of the arena filled by Leafs fans. 
 

And people are losing their minds. Sabres are a young and immature team that’s exceeding expectations this season.