Jack Eichel: Trade rumors and speculation

[Curt]

3 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Staff writer for the athletic covering the Rangers

Yup, that was written.  Then the owner fired the GM and the Team President.  So who knows now?

[Thorny]

2 minutes ago, Curt said:

Yup, that was written.  Then the owner fired the GM and the Team President.  So who knows now?

Right, but I already mentioned that. 

This was in reference to your point about "fan sites" after directly using my "off the table" wording, so I thought I'd clear that up 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Staff writer for the athletic covering the Rangers

Is like Elliotte Friedman saying " John Davidson The Rangers told me have let it be known" or  like Paul Hamilton saying "Sam Reinhart wants to be traded to the West Coast (because he is from there and is grumpy in interviews, we don't really talk)"

Edited May 15, 2021 by dudacek

[Buffalonill]

16 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya. I do think people should keep in mind we aren't going to get a team's best prospect, which is a big part of the reason the whole idea of trading Jack sours me. 1 - I don't want to trade him, 2 - I highly doubt it's for "now" players, which to me it should be and 3 - I think the best prospect we'll get is a Turcotte 

So the prospects route is my 3rd choice and even there I think it'll be very underwhelming. Teams just don't really trade their top prospect. It's part of the reason you don't see guys like Jack moved that often. But KA is intent on it so we'll see what happens

Why ? Gms are going to send leaked information out to get him for low value if people honestly believe we aren't going to get max return

 

Nedd to get there head checked

[Curt]

32 minutes ago, DHawerchuk10 said:

I am asking you to take a guess dude, and this is all speculation anyway.  Of course you don’t know, if you did we wouldn’t be speculating and dreaming up scenarios 

I’m saying that I don’t know what it would take to outbid other teams because I don’t have a very firm grasp on what NHL teams will actually be offering.  We don’t have a great understanding of Eichel’s value.  Are teams scared off by his attitude?  By his neck?  By his Sabre stink?  But the Rangers have a lot of good pieces and could probably outbid most any if they really wanted to.

 

You want me to just make up a potential offer?  Here are a couple.

They could trade Lafreniere, Miller, Georgiev/Shesterkin, and two 1sts.

They could trade Strome, Buchnevich, Chytil, Georgiev, and a 1st.

 

You want a list of Rangers assets?  Here is a rundown.

They have a lot of good very young NHL players (Lafreniere, Kakko, Chytil, Kravtsov, Miller, Lindgren)

They have a couple good veteran NHLers who aren’t too old (Strome, Buchnevich)

They have young goalies (Shesterkin, Georgiev)

They have some decent prospects who are a year or two away.

They have a full supply of draft picks.

A lot of it would depend on what type of assets Sabres want.  Do they want NHL players?  Do they want all youth/futures?

Edited May 15, 2021 by Curt

[thewookie1]

To me the Rangers are untouchable; I don't care how badly they want Eichel; I'm just not frankly interested in sending him there. 

Zegras or Byfield would be important and vital pieces to trade for Eichel. Both are 1C potential players. (To be honest I see Lafreniere as a winger more than a center.)

[dudacek]

One interesting thing about trading Jack is how few precedents there are for a 24-year-old 1C on a long-term contract.

Here are some relative non-rental comparables (as they appeared to be at the time)

• Duchene: a 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, 2 good prospects, a B prospect and a mediocre backup
• O'Reilly: a 1st, a 2nd, a good prospect and two run-of-the-mill NHLers
• Hamilton (+ a good prospect and an NHLer): a young top six forward and a top young defenceman
• Subban: Weber
• Hall: a top 4 NHL defenceman
• Kessel: essentially a 1st, and a good prospect (a lot of other lesser pieces moved in either direction)
• Johanssen: Jones
• Hamilton: a 1st, 2 2nds
• Yandle: a 1st, a 2nd, 2 good prospects
• Kesler: a 1st a 3rd, two run-of-the-mill NHLers
• Ryan: a 1st and 2 good prospects
• Seguin: essentially a 1st liner and 2 good prospects
• Nash: a 1st, a good prospect and two NHLers
• Staal: a 1st, a good prospect and a good young NHLer
• Carter: a 1st and a very good 25-year-old NHL defenceman
• Richards: a 2nd, an elite prospect, and a good young NHL winger
• Carter: a 1st, a 3rd and a good young NHLer
• Kovalchuk: a 1st, 2 good prospects, and a young NHL defenceman
• Kessel: 2 1sts and a 2nd
• Heatley: a 2nd, a top six NHLer and a fading top 6 NHLer

So we learn that:

These types of trades are usually for futures, almost always net a 1st and an intriguing young piece as a base, and elite prospects are almost never included (the lone exception was Brayden Schenn in the Richards deal)

Hockey trades aren't unheard of (Subban for Weber, Carter for Johnson+, Hamilton+ for Lindholm and Hanifin), but package deals rarely include a top player coming back (70-point scorer Louie Eriksson in the Seguin deal being the primary exception).

You are inherently rolling the dice. Sometimes your lottery ticket turns into Tim Stutzle, Jakub Voracek or Tyler Seguin. Sometimes it turns into Derick Pouliot or Niklas Bergfors.

None of these comparables were a 24-year-old unquestioned 1C at the time of the deal. The closest matches would be Carter, Richards and Seguin.

We are kinda breaking new ground here.

Edited May 15, 2021 by dudacek

[dudacek]

5 minutes ago, thewookie1 said:

To me the Rangers are untouchable; I don't care how badly they want Eichel; I'm just not frankly interested in sending him there. 

Zegras or Byfield would be important and vital pieces to trade for Eichel. Both are 1C potential players. (To be honest I see Lafreniere as a winger more than a center.)

The only time in the last decade I could find an elite prospect like those two getting traded was Brayden Schenn in the Mike Richards deal. Coincidentally, Mike Richards is one of the traded players that most closely resembles Jack.

[Archie Lee]

14 minutes ago, dudacek said:

One interesting thing about trading Jack is how few precedents there are for a 24-year-old 1C on a long-term contract.

Here are some relative non-rental comparables (as they appeared to be at the time)

• Duchene: a 1st, a 2nd, a 3rd, 2 good prospects, a B prospect and a mediocre backup
• O'Reilly: a 1st, a 2nd, a good prospect and two run-of-the-mill NHLers
• Hamilton (+ a good prospect and an NHLer): a young top six forward and a top young defenceman
• Subban: Weber
• Hall: a top 4 NHL defenceman
• Kessel: essentially a 1st, and a good prospect (a lot of other lesser pieces moved in either direction)
• Johanssen: Jones
• Hamilton: a 1st, 2 2nds
• Yandle: a 1st, a 2nd, 2 good prospects
• Kesler: a 1st a 3rd, two run-of-the-mill NHLers
• Ryan: a 1st and 2 good prospects
• Seguin: essentially a 1st liner and 2 good prospects
• Nash: a 1st, a good prospect and two NHLers
• Staal: a 1st, a good prospect and a good young NHLer
• Carter: a 1st and a very good 25-year-old NHL defenceman
• Richards: a 2nd, an elite prospect, and a good young NHL winger
• Carter: a 1st, a 3rd and a good young NHLer
• Kovalchuk: a 1st, 2 good prospects, and a young NHL defenceman
• Kessel: 2 1sts and a 2nd
• Heatley: a 2nd, a top six NHLer and a fading top 6 NHLer

So we learn that:

These types of trades are usually for futures, almost always net a 1st and an intriguing young piece as a base, and elite prospects are almost never included (the lone exception was Brayden Schenn in the Richards deal)

Hockey trades aren't unheard of (Subban for Weber, Carter for Johnson+, Hamilton+ for Lindholm and Hanifin), but package deals rarely include a top player coming back (70-point scorer Louie Eriksson in the Seguin deal being the primary exception).

You are inherently rolling the dice. Sometimes your lottery ticket turns into Tim Stutzle, Jakub Voracek or Tyler Seguin. Sometimes it turns into Derick Pouliot or Niklas Bergfors.

None of these comparables were a 24-year-old unquestioned 1C at the time of the deal. The closest matches would be Carter, Richards and Seguin.

We are kinda breaking new ground here.

Nice work.

I agree that we are breaking new ground.  Eichel at his best is better than any of those players.

The injury might be the thing that either messes this up completely (if he does not recover) or takes his value to another level (if he comes back as good as he was in 2019-20).  Patience is going to be key here, unless some team decides to blow our socks off in order to beat the rush.  

 

[Thorny]

19 minutes ago, dudacek said:

The only time in the last decade I could find an elite prospect like those two getting traded was Brayden Schenn in the Mike Richards deal. Coincidentally, Mike Richards is one of the traded players that most closely resembles Jack.

Interestingly, he was even often ranked as the #1 prospect in all of hockey, too, before the Kings dealt him. It does a good job defining why I don't want the Eichel deal to be for futures, too: Schenn did not live up to his projected ceiling 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, Archie Lee said:

Nice work.

I agree that we are breaking new ground.  Eichel at his best is better than any of those players.

The injury might be the thing that either messes this up completely (if he does not recover) or takes his value to another level (if he comes back as good as he was in 2019-20).  Patience is going to be key here, unless some team decides to blow our socks off in order to beat the rush.

Like it or not, a prime piece of any Eichel trade will be a conditional pick because of the injury.  @dudacek showed that a top prospect is already off the table even before factoring in his injury.  @Thorny showed why we should want more certainty in our return.

When I take those ideas into consideration, I keep returning to my unpopular opinion, particularly with @Buffalonill, that we should expect the Sabres to target more established pieces that strengthen the high end of the middle of the line-up and non-elite, above average prospects: it minimises the risk and guesswork for both sides.  I expect even a novice GM to not mistake formerly decent players who are fading for actual 2nd/3rd liners like that idiot who traded ROR for, um,...oh, wait, that was our idiot.

[Flashsabre]

My thoughts:

1) with Eichel’s injury and this surgery it makes things very murky. It will not lead to full value in return into it is sorted out and he is deemed healthy.

2) the ONLY way you move Eichel to the East is if the offer BLOWS you away, meaning beyond what even the fans dream offers include.

3) there are teams in the West that make much more sense. L.A. And Anaheim as people have mentioned.

4) if he is indeed done in Buffalo then don’t rush this. Make sure he is healthy and maximize return. DO NOT settle for best offer if it is not up to snuff.

5) if L.A. Is interested, see about a package to maximize return: Eichel+ Risto and take Quick’s contract for a haul of Byfield, Turcotte, Thomas, multiple 1sts.  

[Radar]

7 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

My thoughts:

1) with Eichel’s injury and this surgery it makes things very murky. It will not lead to full value in return into it is sorted out and he is deemed healthy.

2) the ONLY way you move Eichel to the East is if the offer BLOWS you away, meaning beyond what even the fans dream offers include.

3) there are teams in the West that make much more sense. L.A. And Anaheim as people have mentioned.

4) if he is indeed done in Buffalo then don’t rush this. Make sure he is healthy and maximize return. DO NOT settle for best offer if it is not up to snuff.

5) if L.A. Is interested, see about a package to maximize return: Eichel+ Risto and take Quick’s contract for a haul of Byfield, Turcotte, Thomas, multiple 1sts.  

#5 😂

[Rasmus_]

O'Reilly: a 1st, a 2nd, a good prospect and two run-of-the-mill NHLers - just want to verify this, and should be claimed as a mediocre prospect.  

[PromoTheRobot]

13 hours ago, dudacek said:

Prepare to be disappointed.

Kings are picking 9th at the moment.

The won’t give up Byfield but they will sacrifice two other prime prospects; Sabres will take Fagemo and Turcotte 

Adrian Kempe will be the player.

Three young players who can play fast and compete and fit what Adams seems to want.

Not a high end player in the bunch, but possibly four good ones.

If Adams is going for a bushel of lottery tickets, that’s likely as good a package as we’ll get, IMO

If the Eichel relationship is beyond healing then Adams needs to act swiftly. Move on from the distraction. Don't let this linger. Don't let it fester. Get what you can get and turn the page. Depending how evil Jack wants to get he can make things very tough on the Sabres.

[Thorny]

1 minute ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If the Eichel relationship is beyond healing then Adams needs to act swiftly. Move on from the distraction. Don't let this linger. Don't let it fester. Get what you can get and turn the page. Depending how evil Jack wants to get he can make things very tough on the Sabres.

If he's leaving I really do think it'll be quick. 

There's no *way* they could think a long drawn out process would go down well with ANYONE. And the Pegulas can atleast control THAT.

[Thorny]

Does the NHL still "frown upon" transactions during the playoffs? Anyone? @Taro T?

[Marvin]

25 minutes ago, TheCerebral1 said:

O'Reilly: a 1st, a 2nd, a good prospect and two run-of-the-mill NHLers - just want to verify this, and should be claimed as a mediocre prospect.  

Berglund and Sobotka were not "run-of-the-mill" NHL-ers.  Berglund was years beyond what I thought was acceptable and was a 3rd-4th liner at the time -- albeit a good one.  Sobotka was their worst player the year before.

What I think we can get are the 2C or 3C with upside who might get pissed at the demotion.  Maybe a young guy who is thought of as a supporting player but could evolve into a leader if given a chance.  How about a guy buried on the depth chart but who has already shown promise and progress and played acceptably in the NHL.  I want those unheralded strong players that even the GM underestimates.  I would find those NHLers who have not lived up to ultra-high expectations and reinvented their games to be effective.  After my first one, you should recognise these examples of the kinds players I am targetting: DuMont and Drury; Peca and Grier; Hecht and Warrener; Barnes, Briere, Connolly, Larsson, Girgensons, Lazar, and Okposo.

[MODO Hockey]

Wow, some people really suggesting this org should trade eichle for o'reilly(etc) is mindblowing lol.

"Let's bring back the guy that lost his love for the game playing for this org"

mindblowing, again. 

Edited May 15, 2021 by MODO Hockey

[Crusader1969]

5 hours ago, Curt said:

I don’t buy this either exactly.  You don’t need a true 1C, which I’m assuming you mean a point per game+ top-10 type of C.

Cozens, Mitts, Turcotte, Beniers could each develop into 60+ point players, 3/4 with excellent defense.

Beniers is projected to be a 1C.  Just more of an ROR than a McDavid type.  

[Marvin]

32 minutes ago, MODO Hockey said:

Wow, some people really suggesting this org should trade eichle for o'reilly(etc) is mindblowing lol.

"Let's bring back the guy that lost his love for the game playing for this org"

mindblowing, again. 

I don't think that's it.  I think it is PTSD on the O'Reilly trade.

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Does the NHL still "frown upon" transactions during the playoffs? Anyone? @Taro T?

They do.

[Crusader1969]

1 hour ago, PromoTheRobot said:

If the Eichel relationship is beyond healing then Adams needs to act swiftly. Move on from the distraction. Don't let this linger. Don't let it fester. Get what you can get and turn the page. Depending how evil Jack wants to get he can make things very tough on the Sabres.

He may need to come back next season to prove he is healthy.   This will be the most important trade in franchise history.  You can’t blow it.  
Jack is hopefully smart and mature enough to understand. 
unfortunately,  I had to say “hope” he is mature enough and not “he is” mature enough 

[Hoss]

46 minutes ago, MODO Hockey said:

Wow, some people really suggesting this org should trade eichle for o'reilly(etc) is mindblowing lol.

"Let's bring back the guy that lost his love for the game playing for this org"

mindblowing, again. 

Did someone suggest that? I haven’t seen it. 

[PromoTheRobot]

9 minutes ago, Crusader1969 said:

He may need to come back next season to prove he is healthy.   This will be the most important trade in franchise history.  You can’t blow it.  
Jack is hopefully smart and mature enough to understand. 
unfortunately,  I had to say “hope” he is mature enough and not “he is” mature enough 

But then there's the idea that you'll never get enough from the trade. No matter what it is, folks will complain. Plus, if moving Jack is inevitable, why push off your rebuild by a year? Get those assets now and start using them.

Was it Dreger or Friedman who said there's a market for Eichel now, even with the injury? I say tell all interested parties to make their best offers now. Because this is another thing: let Jack's new team deal the surgery decision.

[Thorny]

They've prioritized other things over return before, see: ROR's bonus

I wouldn't be shocked if they were willing to take a hit on the return correspondent to Eichel's injury question mark, in the name of both nipping any unneeded drama in the bud, and freeing themselves from the risk said injury entails. 

I understand people say we need to maximize the return, but if the injury is being factored into the "why" of us dealing him, they may value moving him sooner rather than later if they are concerned the prognosis around the injury could realistically get worse. 

Edited May 15, 2021 by Thorny