Seattle Expansion Protection List

[Randall Flagg]

 

1 hour ago, Eleven said:

Is there a player on this team that you *don't* feel is overrated?

By definition, half the team, since any team has their own symmetric distribution of his stat

Edited July 15, 2021 by Randall Flagg

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

Risto is overrated

In what universe? He’s the most hated player on the team and every comment about him talks about how bad he is. He’s not overrated. He’s not a dominant defensemen and should not log the minutes he does but he’s also not the hot trash this board claims he is.

[nfreeman]

11 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

 

By definition, half the team, since any team has their own symmetric distribution of his stat

Gotta disagree with this.

[Hoss]

2 hours ago, Marvin, Sabres Fan said:

What fool would offer a 1st rounder for someone with as bad metrics as Ristolainen?

Probably a team that has a staff with more nuance than just staring at graphs and saying “yup, that’s a bad player.”

Man, I have been a lifelong stats nerd and love diving into analytics but hockey fans have killed it for me. A lot of people presenting analytics as a bible and not a tool because they don’t actually understand their own evidence.

Edited July 15, 2021 by Hoss

[Randall Flagg]

1 minute ago, nfreeman said:

Gotta disagree with this.

I'm just joking about how pi bases all of his views on TRPM which tells you that every team has about half their team full of good players and half full of bad 

[Brawndo]

6 hours ago, Hoss said:

I still think if this were true it would have happened 

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I just went with the fact 21 of the 31 picks in the 2nd round of Borgen’s draft year have played more than 8 NHL games. 89 picks in that draft have played more NHL games.

I think you should too. Before the ED if you can get full value, after if it increases the return.

Picture this scenario:

Pittsburgh says they will trade you a 1st rounder for Risto, but only after the expansion draft because they want to use their protection slots.

You can:

A) protect Risto, expose Borgen, trade Risto for a first rounder.

B) protect Borgen, expose Risto.

Under this scenario, your choice is Borgen or a first rounder.

I decide whether or not to protect Risto based on his potential trade return versus my opinion of Borgen as an unproven minor leaguer with #5D upside.

If this scenario exists with another team of course you protect him

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, dudacek said:

I just went with the fact 21 of the 31 picks in the 2nd round of Borgen’s draft year have played more than 8 NHL games. 89 picks in that draft have played more NHL games.

I think you should too. Before the ED if you can get full value, after if it increases the return.

Picture this scenario:

Pittsburgh says they will trade you a 1st rounder for Risto, but only after the expansion draft because they want to use their protection slots.

You can:

A) protect Risto, expose Borgen, trade Risto for a first rounder.

B) protect Borgen, expose Risto.

Under this scenario, your choice is Borgen or a first rounder.

I decide whether or not to protect Risto based on his potential trade return versus my opinion of Borgen as an unproven minor leaguer with #5D upside.

Just irrelevant useless info. Borgen should have played the year b4 but Jason Dumbass Botterill buried him in Rochester behind worse players. 

[LGR4GM]

Not yelling at you dudacek, sorry it comes off that way

[JohnC]

1 hour ago, Pimlach said:

He will be force as a 2nd pair defenseman on a good team.  

You nailed it on the head. On a good team as a 2B second pairing defenseman he would excel. There is no question that he makes a lot of mistakes. But because our goaltending has been less than mediocre and our scoring ability is feeble his mistakes are magnified. There is question that he is not a very cerebral player but in the right situation his strengths would be magnified and his vulnerabilities would be less exposed. In my view he is a player who get unfairly stigmatized. 

[Pimlach]

15 minutes ago, JohnC said:

You nailed it on the head. On a good team as a 2B second pairing defenseman he would excel. There is no question that he makes a lot of mistakes. But because our goaltending has been less than mediocre and our scoring ability is feeble his mistakes are magnified. There is question that he is not a very cerebral player but in the right situation his strengths would be magnified and his vulnerabilities would be less exposed. In my view he is a player who get unfairly stigmatized. 

Plus he has offensive skills, power play skills, and he is as strong as an Ox (or a Viking).  

[ExWNYer]

1 hour ago, Hoss said:

Probably a team that has a staff with more nuance than just staring at graphs and saying “yup, that’s a bad player.”

Man, I have been a lifelong stats nerd and love diving into analytics but hockey fans have killed it for me. A lot of people presenting analytics as a bible and not a tool because they don’t actually understand their own evidence.

Baseball has done the same thing. As useful as analytics are, they should be just one of the tools in the bag used to support and verify a position not the be all end all for making personnel decisions. The 'eye test' still has its place in sports evaluation.

[pi2000]

4 hours ago, Eleven said:

Is there a player on this team that you *don't* feel is overrated?

no, just Risto and Borgen 🙂

edit: and Reinhart, he's one dimensional and the team will be better without him

Edited July 15, 2021 by pi2000

[Thwomp!]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

no, just Risto and Borgen 🙂

Which are you protecting?

[pi2000]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

In what universe? He’s the most hated player on the team and every comment about him talks about how bad he is. He’s not overrated. He’s not a dominant defensemen and should not log the minutes he does but he’s also not the hot trash this board claims he is.

You have a point.   I probably have PTSD from years of everybody here blaming the coaching staff for his shortcomings.  

1 minute ago, Thwomp! said:

Which are you protecting?

Risto

[Thwomp!]

1 minute ago, pi2000 said:

You have a point.   I probably have PTSD from years of everybody here blaming the coaching staff for his shortcomings.  

Risto

Thumbs up for the first part. Boo the 2nd! Haha

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Risto does not want to stay here and Borgan has a chance to develop into something.

I would expose Risto and protect Borgen.

If Seattle takes him it is addition by subraction and we can use the $ to sign someone else, like Samson, or Linus and stick Borgen in there, or bring in a savy vet D (Suter ??) to help out the kids.

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Pimlach said:

Plus he has offensive skills, power play skills, and he is as strong as an Ox (or a Viking).  

As you indicate he is another player whose assets have to an extent been squandered/misused because of the lack of overall support. The reality that over the past decade this team hasn't been built up enough to create a roster talented enough to emphasize each players talents and minimize their individual liabilities. Over the past decade there has been more regression than progression. And then people criticize Jack and other players for their frustration being stuck in this sea of futility.  

I'm far from being discouraged. I believe that our young GM has an established direction he wants to lead this franchise toward. Steadily he is putting together a quality staff and is receptive to input from others. He had a credible coaching search process that resulted in the right selection. He's checking the right boxes. I'm cautiously optimistic.  

[dudacek]

12 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Not yelling at you dudacek, sorry it comes off that way

I’ve been wearing Jason Botterill’s mistakes for years.

[gilbert11]

So, the Vegas Golden Knights, who have made the playoffs in their first 4 years, and advanced far in 3 of them, don’t lose anybody in this Seattle expansion draft?   WTF?

I don’t see a precedent for this.  When the Sabres and Vancouver were added in 1970, they were able to take players from the 6 teams added in 1967.  Of course, if they didn’t that would’ve meant all the players taken would’ve had to come from the original six teams.

When, the Islanders and Flames were added in 1972, the Sabres and Canucks were part of the expansion draft.

The big difference between then and now is the protected lists.  For the 1972 expansion Draft, the existing teams were able to protect 2 goaltenders and 17 skaters.

[Hoss]

17 hours ago, New Scotland (NS) said:

Risto does not want to stay here and Borgan has a chance to develop into something.

I would expose Risto and protect Borgen.

If Seattle takes him it is addition by subraction and we can use the $ to sign someone else, like Samson, or Linus and stick Borgen in there, or bring in a savy vet D (Suter ??) to help out the kids.

There is a full zero percent chance that we couldn't get AT LEAST, in the absolute worst-case scenario, a third-round pick for Risto before the expansion draft ... so if we expose Risto and lose him for nothing Adams should be punched in the nuts.

But Risto will be protected. And he probably ends up back on this team.

Edited July 16, 2021 by Hoss

[PerreaultForever]

On 7/14/2021 at 5:21 PM, Pimlach said:

He will be force as a 2nd pair defenseman on a good team.  

We've seen snippets of that when he's on his game, like for example how he got under Ovi's skin. He throws his weight around and he can really mess with the opposition, but he needs a lesser role and a solid partner. 

Borgen is being over rated because of his fresh shiny newness. 

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

We've seen snippets of that when he's on his game, like for example how he got under Ovi's skin. He throws his weight around and he can really mess with the opposition, but he needs a lesser role and a solid partner. 

Borgen is being over rated because of his fresh shiny newness. 

Ristolainen will not be a Sabre in 1 year regardless of what we do. 

[WildCard]

 

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Ristolainen will not be a Sabre in 1 year regardless of what we do. 

Therefore he shouldn't be here this coming season, by way of KA's word 

[DarthEbriate]

1 minute ago, Thorny said:

Therefore he shouldn't be here this coming season, by way of KA's word 

Precisely. Either move him now (maybe too close to the freeze for max value), move him on entry draft day, or move him at the trade deadline. The only other future is we make the playoffs and skate him into the ground as he becomes a UFA. And then watch somebody madly throw $7M x 7 years at him.

Right now the buyouts, the trades... I don't want us to be the only team left standing when the music stops and we still have no goalie of value to protect and lose Borgen for nothing.