COVID-19

[SwampD]

A woman we know just recovered from it. She said there were several days where when she went to bed, she wasn't sure if she would wake up.

It's just so bizarre how it thwaps some people and others not at all.

[Huckleberry]

Personally I'm more scared of the side effects on our heart and brain than the normal things that get reported.

We have had 625k infected out of 11 million here in Belgium, even if those numbers are right, because we know some still test positive 1 month later.
But if they will all need treatment for brain and heart conditions no country can handle that % of medical care needed.

 

[PerreaultForever]

13 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Personally I'm more scared of the side effects on our heart and brain than the normal things that get reported.

We have had 625k infected out of 11 million here in Belgium, even if those numbers are right, because we know some still test positive 1 month later.
But if they will all need treatment for brain and heart conditions no country can handle that % of medical care needed.

 

That's true. There's also concern in the medical community of big spikes in cancer deaths after this is all over. People not getting the early detections and screenings due to overloaded hospitals, not to mention all the cancelled surgeries that have just left people in pain or lacking mobility etc.  Just looking at the direct covid numbers doesn't give a full picture of the toll. 

[North Buffalo]

8 hours ago, Eleven said:

It doesn't seem to be working here, at least.  Or in a few European countries.  I'm still inclined to think that the rise is due to colder weather, not to people socializing.  We aren't socializing.

Not here.  I just don't think it's working.  I'm not going out to protest or anything; like I said above, I'll just follow the rules.

Why not?

Maybe you are not socializing...  but based on amount of cars on the road... parties being busted... political rallies... TG Jewish weddings.... bars unmasked in SoCal... I could go on but people arent listening... 

 

8 hours ago, drnkirishone said:

byproduct of a lack of trust in ones government. and other things that I am forbidden from saying else i get put on the naughty list.

Yeh that has a long history in this country and is part of it plus there is a certain immature orneriness where people do what they want regardless of consequences... been that way for a long time.  Serves us well except in a pandemic

Edited December 22, 2020 by North Buffalo

[That Aud Smell]

8 hours ago, nfreeman said:

It’s worth noting that Florida has more people than NY, and more old people, and much less “better COVID practices” — and NY has 75% more COVID deaths than Florida.  

I'd say that factoid is mostly not worth noting.

30 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Maybe you are not socializing...  but based on amount of cars on the road... parties being busted... political rallies... TG Jewish weddings.... bars unmasked in SoCal... I could go on but people arent listening... 

There's definitely far more of it going on than is advisable. Our neighbours have continued to have their Bills-watch parties. Grandpa is in attendance, as are 12+ guests. It's madness.

[North Buffalo]

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'd say that factoid is mostly not worth noting.

There's definitely far more of it going on than is advisable. Our neighbours have continued to have their Bills-watch parties. Grandpa is in attendance, as are 12+ guests. It's madness.

Maybe but treatments have gotten a lot better... also virus have a hx of becoming less deadly as they replicate... could be a number of factors going on here both plus and minus... people are showing up earlier to get treated etc but yeh people still spreading as FLA numbers reveal far surpassed NY numbers

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, SwampD said:

No. NY and NJ.

I'm only saying this in terms of comparing total deaths, which is what Nfreeman did. Most in NY happened at the beginning when we didn't know how to best fight this thing yet. Since then, I think every state has been about the same in terms of fighting this thing with equal amounts of knuckleheads who don't take it seriously.

Got any data to support this?

 

[nfreeman]

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some:  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search.

NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

 

[That Aud Smell]

35 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Got any data to support this?

I don't think anyone reasonably disputes that New York and New Jersey suffered for having been on the leading edge of the pandemic as it flowed in from Europe.

I also thought @North Buffalo's post actually addressed the issue.

56 minutes ago, North Buffalo said:

Maybe but treatments have gotten a lot better... also virus have a hx of becoming less deadly as they replicate... could be a number of factors going on here both plus and minus... people are showing up earlier to get treated etc but yeh people still spreading as FLA numbers reveal far surpassed NY numbers

 

[That Aud Smell]

8 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some:  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search.

NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

 

The issues here are enormously complicated and nuanced, and plucking stats out like that is akin to leaving a campfire in the middle of a dark forest and trying to find your way with a candle.

[That Aud Smell]

I'll hasten to add, but only in summary terms so as to avoid too much political talk: Comparing data from Florida and New York is problematic for a number of reasons. Chief among them: Florida's thresholds and criteria for reporting COVID-19 deaths are reportedly quite different (stricter) than in New York. Florida is also the state where a governor's detail of state police raided the home of a COVID-19 data whistleblower. Weird things are afoot in Florida, IMO, which, really, is not surprising. Because Florida.

Edited December 22, 2020 by That Aud Smell

[LTS]

51 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Got any data to support this?

 

See below.

16 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some:  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search.

NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

 

Two posts about 35 minutes apart and you were growing old already?  You must age fast.

With all due respect, could you have not introduced your data without taking a jab at a poster on the board?  Your jabs are more likely to draw attention than your link and I don't think that's going to improve the conversational quality of the thread.

[dudacek]

Re: Florida/New York. Does climate have a role?

[WildCard]

I mean it's the most densely populated city in America with almost activity being indoor at the beginning of the pandemic when we knew nothing and had no protocols. You can't compare it to anything. 

Granted Cuomo is still an absolute asshat, but that's a discussion for another day.

Edited December 22, 2020 by WildCard

[Scottysabres]

They shut down my schematics class last night, one of the students tested positive yesterday. I'm currently in route to a rapid test site.

That particular student was notorious for not wearing their mask in class. What a bummer 😞

[nfreeman]

13 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

The issues here are enormously complicated and nuanced, and plucking stats out like that is akin to leaving a campfire in the middle of a dark forest and trying to find your way with a candle.

 

6 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I'll hasten to add, but only in summary terms so as to avoid too much political talk: Comparing data from Florida and New York is problematic for a number of reasons. Chief among them: Florida's thresholds and criteria for reporting COVID-19 deaths are reportedly quite different (stricter) than in New York. Florida is also the state where a governor's detail of state police raided the home of a COVID-19 data whistleblower. Weird things are afoot in Florida, IMO, which, really, is not surprising. Because Florida.

I certainly agree that the issues are complicated.  My point was simply that certain propositions seem to have become articles of faith in this discussion, including that NYS is some kind of superior place filled with smart people who comply with COVID protocols, unlike the dumb rednecks in other parts of the country, and as a result our COVID results are better — when the data doesn’t remotely support that conclusion. 
 

3 minutes ago, LTS said:

See below.

Two posts about 35 minutes apart and you were growing old already?  You must age fast.

With all due respect, could you have not introduced your data without taking a jab at a poster on the board?  Your jabs are more likely to draw attention than your link and I don't think that's going to improve the conversational quality of the thread.

Did you see his jab at me?

In any case you are right that these jabs, including mine, don’t improve the quality of conversation.  

10 minutes ago, WildCard said:

I mean it's the most densely populated city in America with almost activity being indoor at the beginning of the pandemic when we knew nothing and had no protocols. You can't compare it to anything. 

One interesting item about the data I linked to is that NYC is doing better currently than the rest of NYS.  

[PASabreFan]

If the governor of Florida was a Dem, we wouldn't be having this conversation on SabreSpace. It would be in a side club moderated by non-moderators.

[LGR4GM]

I wanna PLAY!!!!!!!

[PASabreFan]

 

 

[That Aud Smell]

23 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I certainly agree that the issues are complicated.  My point was simply that certain propositions seem to have become articles of faith in this discussion, including that NYS is some kind of superior place filled with smart people who comply with COVID protocols, unlike the dumb rednecks in other parts of the country, and as a result our COVID results are better — when the data doesn’t remotely support that conclusion. 

I take as an article of faith that, while no government's approach is ideal, some are better than others. As for what the data supports, I'm just not sure. If Florida is imposing much stricter requirements on what constitutes a COVID-19 death than New York is, then I'm not sure what can be drawn from the data. Apples and oranges.

And I allow for the idea that there can be debate on whether COVID-19 hospital admissions and/or deaths are being over-reported. It's dang near impossible to get good information on that issue.

[LGR4GM]

11 hours ago, nfreeman said:

It’s worth noting that Florida has more people than NY, and more old people, and much less “better COVID practices” — and NY has 75% more COVID deaths than Florida.  

 

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Since we could all grow old waiting for @SwampD to introduce any data in support of his hunches, here's some:  https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases_deathsper100klast7days

It's only the last 7 days, which isn't as meaningful as last 30 days, but I wasn't able to find last 30 days on a quick search.

NY has 60% more covid deaths per capita in the last 7 days than Florida, which has the 7th-fewest out of the continental 48 states.

 

 

35 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

I certainly agree that the issues are complicated.  My point was simply that certain propositions seem to have become articles of faith in this discussion, including that NYS is some kind of superior place filled with smart people who comply with COVID protocols, unlike the dumb rednecks in other parts of the country, and as a result our COVID results are better — when the data doesn’t remotely support that conclusion. 
 

Did you see his jab at me?

In any case you are right that these jabs, including mine, don’t improve the quality of conversation.  

One interesting item about the data I linked to is that NYC is doing better currently than the rest of NYS.  

 

You can trust Florida's COVID numbers but I don't. 

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/29/884551391/florida-scientist-says-she-was-fired-for-not-manipulating-covid-19-data

Quote

And then eventually the night before the first phase of reopening, I was asked to actually delete and then hide data from the public.

https://www.npr.org/2020/06/14/876584284/fired-florida-data-scientist-launches-a-coronavirus-dashboard-of-her-own

Quote

Jones says a superior asked her to open up the data and alter the numbers so that the state's coronavirus positivity rating would change from 18% to 10% — and the state would appear to meet its target to reopen.

https://www.sun-sentinel.com/coronavirus/fl-ne-ss-prem-covid-deaths-florida-election-20201216-f4kgezjf4rf75ppumt4omxfsxy-story.html

Quote

Mysterious gap in Florida COVID deaths. The state stopped logging backlogged deaths, with minor exceptions, on 24 October, 10 days before the election, and then resumed consistently including that count on 17 November – two weeks after the election.

The lag came after the Governor of Florida said that all COVID deaths would be reviewed before being reported. The only logical conclusion is that Florida is underreporting deaths and instead using the results of COVID on some death certificates. You had COVID and died of Pneumonia, well you died of Pneumonia. Stuff like that. 

But wait there's more.

https://www.salon.com/2020/12/16/desantis-faces-renewed-scrutiny-following-discovery-of-mysterious-gap-in-floridas-covid-death-tally/

Quote

Prior to the gap in the death data, Florida Surgeon General Dr. Scott Rivkees announced that the state would conduct an additional review of the reported deaths before releasing them publicly "to ensure the accuracy of COVID-19 related deaths."

The DeSantis administration has repeatedly changed the guidelines on the reporting of pandemic deaths, drawing outcry from public officials. Medical examiners sounded the alarm in the spring after the state stopped publishing real-time death data reported by local health officials, which showed a higher death total than the state's reports.

In August, as medical examiners dealt with a massive backlog of deaths stemming from the state's outbreak, the administration allowed attending doctors to determine and report coronavirus deaths. The state had also released summaries of death certificate data from county medical examiners through the summer but stopped releasing the data after the change.

 

So if people think I will believe the deaths report from Florida they are sadly mistaken. Fun part is you can look at NY and you can look at NYC as separate things. NY without NYC is about 4 deaths higher per 100k than Florida. Further even with NYC Florida has had 325k more cases by my rough math. That is interesting considering things. I bet climate does play in but not "oh it's hot so we win" as much as the weather allows people to be out side and for proper ventilation, something NY does not have right now as we fall into winter. This theory can't explain everything though as Texas is just inundated with cases currently, it will be interesting to see what happens there. 

I think the thing to remember about NY and NYC in particular is that we would have to track cases compared to death (death rate) over time. The treatments for COVID 19 have advanced exceedingly well in the last 9 months. This is great news and something to keep in mind as we talk about a new disease. We should be cautious about looking at something 9 months ago and saying look at that! We really need to look at the last month and take our cues from there. I think NY and NYC in particular is a very interesting case study that will be heavily reported on by scientists when this is all over. 

1 minute ago, That Aud Smell said:

I take as an article of faith that, while no government's approach is ideal, some are better than others. As for what the data supports, I'm just not sure. If Florida is imposing much stricter requirements on what constitutes a COVID-19 death than New York is, then I'm not sure what can be drawn from the data. Apples and oranges.

And I allow for the idea that there can be debate on whether COVID-19 hospital admissions and/or deaths are being over-reported. It's dang near impossible to get good information on that issue.

Yes, they are. 

Edited December 22, 2020 by LGR4GM

[That Aud Smell]

10 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

And I allow for the idea that there can be debate on whether COVID-19 hospital admissions and/or deaths are being over-reported. It's dang near impossible to get good information on that issue.

Or under-reported, as the case may be.

10 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Yes, they are. 

So I've heard.

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

Granted Cuomo is still an absolute asshat, but that's a discussion for another day.

[SwampD]

2 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Got any data to support this?

 

It hadn’t even reached other states until June or July.

1 hour ago, WildCard said:

I mean it's the most densely populated city in America with almost activity being indoor at the beginning of the pandemic when we knew nothing and had no protocols. You can't compare it to anything. 

Granted Cuomo is still an absolute asshat, but that's a discussion for another day.

It’s actually for another thread.

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

 

I certainly agree that the issues are complicated.  My point was simply that certain propositions seem to have become articles of faith in this discussion, including that NYS is some kind of superior place filled with smart people who comply with COVID protocols, unlike the dumb rednecks in other parts of the country, and as a result our COVID results are better — when the data doesn’t remotely support that conclusion. 
 

Did you see his jab at me?

In any case you are right that these jabs, including mine, don’t improve the quality of conversation.  

One interesting item about the data I linked to is that NYC is doing better currently than the rest of NYS.  

Would you be surprised to find out I agree with this post? Except for data point. If you remove the initial spike, which North Buffalo agrees was when they were figuring this thing out and now have better treatments, every state looks relatively the same.

Oh, and sorry for the delay. I was, um, sleeping.

Edited December 22, 2020 by SwampD

[Scottysabres]

Well, not for nothing, but the test site at 1200 Parker Blvd, Town of Tonawanda, ya the traffic all the way back to Sheridan and a good distance down Sheridan as well. And the language from the drivers, let's just say this is definitely channeling an inner New York City fever for many, yikes.