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GDT Dec 17 2019 Sabres @ Leafs. 7pm ET. NBCSN


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Can't wait for the game tonight. Invading the home of the enemy. 

Can Jack continue his points streak?

Will Olofsson get on the scoresheet?

Will the PK work?

Is it pumped up anti-Leafs Risto time?

Will the PP work?

Will someone beat the moustache off Matthews face?

All these questions answered, and more tonight in the Scotiabank Arena. Puck drops at 7(ish).

Go Sabres.

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Eichel usually gets especially fired up to play Matthews.

I'd like to see:

- Linus locked in from the get-go 

- Skinner to re-assert himself

- Some secondary scoring

- Bogo in the lineup and plaing like he owes his dudes a major effort after his temper tantrum and he's got something to prove

- Unless Sheary and ERod have both looked alive in practice, I'd like to see 11 F and 7 D again.  It was working.

Go Sabres.

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23 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Eichel usually gets especially fired up to play Matthews.

I'd like to see:

- Linus locked in from the get-go 

- Skinner to re-assert himself

- Some secondary scoring

- Bogo in the lineup and plaing like he owes his dudes a major effort after his temper tantrum and he's got something to prove

- Unless Sheary and ERod have both looked alive in practice, I'd like to see 11 F and 7 D again.  It was working.

Go Sabres.

- PP and PK continuing to improve! 

Is this NBCSN game?? 

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This rivalry will have another battle to add tonight.

Bragging rights are nice but putting these guys 5 points back would be great. Doing it in their barn would plant a seed in the Dubas/Keefe team in that fan base.

I think there is a lack of respect for the Sabres around the league and this could be a statement game.

Let’s Go Buffalo!

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Like to see our best goal scorer earn his keep tonight.

Pointless in his past five, 4 goals in his past 21 games, hasn’t scored on the PP all year, just 15 goals total in his past 58.

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28 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Like to see our best goal scorer earn his keep tonight.

Pointless in his past five, 4 goals in his past 21 games, hasn’t scored on the PP all year, just 15 goals total in his past 58.

Yeah, it would be nice to get him going.

The powerplay has not had him as an option, VO and Jack are the shooters while Skinner seems to be the garbage guy. From my perspective there have not been a lot of shots overall and not many rebounds. 

He is not a pure shooter and should be suited to his role, but they need a higher volume of shots to generate rebounds and loose pucks that he can bury. 5v5 is where I would like to see him get a few but he needs a good playmaker (Sam) on his line.

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==============================================================
BUF even strength goal differential through 34 games = 13
BUF even strength minutes played through 34 games = 1711.7
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
BUF Jack Eichel                9.54    34    14    4.46   34.3
BUF Marco Scandella            8.14    26    11    2.86   22.0
BUF Jimmy Vesey                6.28    31     9    2.72   20.9
BUF Rasmus Ristolainen         4.27    34     9    4.73   36.4
BUF Johan Larsson              4.13    31     7    2.87   22.1
BUF Brandon Montour            2.52    20     5    2.48   19.1
BUF Victor Olofsson            2.16    34     6    3.84   29.5
BUF Rasmus Asplund             0.92    16     2    1.08    8.3
BUF Zach Bogosian              0.79    10     2    1.21    9.3
BUF Conor Sheary               0.54    28     3    2.46   18.9
BUF Vladimir Sobotka           0.48    16     2    1.52   11.7
BUF Henri Jokiharju            0.08    34     4    3.92   30.1
BUF Zemgus Girgensons         -0.67    34     2    2.67   20.5
BUF Kyle Okposo               -0.91    24     1    1.91   14.7
BUF Rasmus Dahlin             -1.01    26     2    3.01   23.2
BUF Marcus Johansson          -2.96    27     0    2.96   22.7
BUF Jake McCabe               -5.14    32    -1    4.14   31.9
BUF Sam Reinhart              -5.28    34    -1    4.28   33.0
BUF Evan Rodrigues            -6.32    18    -5    1.32   10.2
BUF Casey Mittelstadt         -7.58    31    -5    2.58   19.9
BUF Jeff Skinner              -7.59    34    -4    3.59   27.6
BUF Colin Miller              -9.04    26    -6    3.04   23.4
==============================================================

vs

==============================================================
TOR even strength goal differential through 34 games = 7
TOR even strength minutes played through 34 games = 1733.27
TRpm(team relative +/-) is the diff btwn actual+/- and exp+/-
exp+/- is a function of %min played at ES and team ES goal diff
%min is % of ES minutes played
==============================================================
Team  Player                   TRpm    GP    +/-  exp+/-  %min
TOR Justin Holl                7.20    32     9    1.80   25.7
TOR Travis Dermott             5.83    21     7    1.17   16.8
TOR Ilya Mikheyev              5.14    34     7    1.86   26.6
TOR Cody Ceci                  4.47    34     7    2.53   36.1
TOR Jake Muzzin                3.53    33     6    2.47   35.3
TOR Auston Matthews            2.71    34     5    2.29   32.8
TOR Pierre Engvall             2.57    12     3    0.43    6.1
TOR Zach Hyman                 2.06    15     3    0.94   13.5
TOR Nick Shore                 1.29    21     2    0.71   10.2
TOR Dmytro Timashov            1.24    22     2    0.76   10.8
TOR Andreas Johnsson           0.27    30     2    1.73   24.7
TOR Alexander Kerfoot         -1.48    29     0    1.48   21.2
TOR John Tavares              -1.79    27     0    1.79   25.6
TOR Trevor Moore              -1.91    21    -1    0.91   12.9
TOR Frederik Gauthier         -2.09    30    -1    1.09   15.6
TOR Mitchell Marner           -2.35    23    -1    1.35   19.3
TOR Morgan Rielly             -2.68    34     0    2.68   38.3
TOR William Nylander          -4.09    34    -2    2.09   29.9
TOR Nic Petan                 -4.67    16    -4    0.67    9.5
TOR Kasperi Kapanen           -5.80    34    -4    1.80   25.7
TOR Jason Spezza              -5.87    23    -5    0.87   12.5
TOR Tyson Barrie             -13.57    34   -11    2.57   36.7
==============================================================

* - I made a slight adjustment to the main algorithm... using % of team minutes played at even strength to calculate expected +/- instead of % of all minutes played.    This helps guys like Eichel who had a higher expected +/- because of all the time they play on special teams.

Off topic, but Buffalo currently is tied for 6th in the league in even strength goal differential.... which I find is a positive sign...  if they can get their PP back on track, while continuing to outpace their opponents at ES, they should be in good shape.  

1.Colorado Avalanche        29
2.Boston Bruins             24
3.Washington Capitals       17
4.Pittsburgh Penguins       17
5.New York Islanders        16
6.Winnipeg Jets             13
7.Buffalo Sabres            13
8.Nashville Predators       10
9.Arizona Coyotes            9
10.Toronto Maple Leafs       7
11.Dallas Stars              7
12.Carolina Hurricanes       7
13.St Louis Blues            6
14.Montreal Canadiens        6
15.Tampa Bay Lightning       1
16.New York Rangers          1
17.Philadelphia Flyers       0
18.Anaheim Ducks            -2
19.Minnesota Wild           -5
20.Florida Panthers         -5
21.Los Angeles Kings        -6
22.Calgary Flames           -7
23.Vegas Golden Knights     -8
24.Vancouver Canucks        -8
25.Ottawa Senators          -8
26.Chicago Blackhawks       -8
27.Columbus Blue Jackets   -11
28.Edmonton Oilers         -15
29.New Jersey Devils       -24
30.San Jose Sharks         -30
31.Detroit Red Wings       -46

 

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