Which Sabres will take a big step BACK this season?

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I'm not shocked at all. Everything Botterill and Housley have both done and said since coming in says they really do like Bogosian. Fools' gold will always have a buyer...and unfortunately, we've got two of them.

You are correct. I keep forgetting all those comments because I clearly tried to dismiss them as nothingness at the time. 

[Randall Flagg]

Pushing the line of thinking further, 

I fully understand that in hockey, random and crazy things can happen all the time. people can go from 6 goals to 43 in a different situation, 5 months later. Young guys come out of nowhere, talents just like Jack take a next step and blow away their previous year's totals. But this stuff is inherently unpredictable, so while it's perfectly reasonable for people to suggest that Jack and Casey are MacKinnon and Keller, I will always lean towards what I can see and deduce with what I have. And as it stands, I see no net roster improvement outside of a defensive rookie, who may be great, and who may look like the guy what was 3rd on his team in defensive scoring in a league a few tiers down from the NHL. Since we don't have evidence just yet that he'll be a Calder contender, I'll be modest and assume we're adding a 4D to what is widely considered a probably-bottom-3 defense, deserved or not.

I don't think Botterill has done enough at this point (and fully acknowledge he has months remaining to do so) to remove us from the basement, and I also think it's imperative that he DOES remove us, now, this season. This season matters. This season always matters. We can't just write it off noting that in 3 years Jack, Dahlin and Casey are studs. We literally just got done doing that when we drafted Jack, and we're in last place, and I can pull posts from each and every one of us with this attitude back in 2015, me included, that would make us downright embarrassed. Dahlin and a backup goalie are the only additions he's made, and they COULD couple with a full year of Casey to let us be NJ, but BETTING on this to happen has occurred on this board and many others every year since Black Sunday, and is outside the lens through which I try to live my life. He shouldn't be satisfied with what he's done and I'm not either.

Another season, or even just start, like this year, as everyone but Jack has been cast aside as scapegoats, either off the team, or out of the eyes of fans, will be incredibly damaging to Jack's development and could be a part of the alteration of his career course. I believe every individual has agency, but I also believe that it is impossible to succeed in the levels of dysfunction that have been hinted at or seen right out in the open since he got here. And they might not be gone yet, given the worry that has been expressed about our analytics department expecting Sobotka to be a lockdown contributor because of his Corsi. (No, not from a tangible source, but from deductions we've made as a board based on information they've given us). 

I just worry that another bad start and down year will have us chomping at the bit w.r.t. Jack and Sam, which is bad, both because it's misplaced (as it stands right now, there is nothing objective to point to that will suggest immediate on-ice improvement - and once again, I'm not saying there's zero chance we have a fun, good season, I'm just saying it would be by definition one of those pleasant surprise stories which, by definition, come from nowhere) and because I have heard enough to believe that this is literally just what we got done with - bad team with ROR having the biggest role arguably of any non-offensive-specialist skater in the world, ROR is sad, ROR is locker problem, ROR gone after artificially and meticulously maneuvering out of any leverage we had with the player and the asset. I've now heard from two sources (both somebody I know, and reading someone else hear a similar story, my 'source' knows our franchise, the other is a supposed NHL insider), that our locker room is an average NHL locker room except the noted lack of talent, and the tendency for stories like fractured locker rooms to come out just as a function of bad seasons and not out of any tangible reality was upheld in our situation. In short, there is no story to our locker room, everyone is as fine with anyone else as can be in a work environment, and everyone hates being such a bad team.

And I believe this, because I can link everyone here to an article from any reputable source that says that ROR isolated himself and didn't have friends, ROR hated Jack, ROR was the problem, and then a separate article that says everyone hates Jack around the league and Jack is the source of all problems but the franchise has to hitch themselves to him. And they're all short on anything other than speculation about why the team with bottom 3 goaltending and worst depth scoring in the NHL with the franchise depth of the worst and most prolonged tank in modern NHL history may suck. 

Jason, the fate of the team is on you and your moves and your sapping of already-bad depth when you first got here. There are no more locker room scapegoats that wouldn't result in everything, including your position, being blown up again. Don't assume that Berglund's corsi means we're a better team today, and don't assume that removing the moody vegan will inherently make your team better at the thing it objectively sucks at. Please 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Randall Flagg

[Taro T]

14 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Even with Dahlin on the right, I can't see Nelson being a regular scratch on D, as with Bogo's inevitable injury, Casey Nelson is next up on the right side. 

I'm frankly shocked that Botterill has ignored the right side of the defence this far, especially considering he has been proactive on many other fronts. I've been harping on the need to add a RHD for months and I'm sticking to that. I said I would be, to use your word, apoplectic if Bogosian entered into the season penciled in as the #2 RHD, and as of now that's still the case. 

Lots of off-season left, I need to hope Botterill has another name in mind for the right side. 

I'm still expecting Dahlin to play on the right side.  Probably w/ McCabe initially.

Bogosian & Guhle as the other pairing.

 

My guess is that Nelson is most likely to take a step back this season.

Okposo is next most likely to regress.  Hopefully wrong on that guess.

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, IKnowPhysics said:

Sam Reinhart because O'Reilly's gone.

Of Sabres who played more than 45 minutes with O'Reilly (about 3 games worth of O'Reilly's shifts), Sam Reinhart had the highest FF% (55.2) of any Sabre forward with O'Reilly and had the lowest FF% of any Sabre (46.0) without O'Reilly.  ROR had a massive positive impact on Reinhart's game.  I hope he can find his way without him, but if he doesn't, I guess I won't be surprised.

[Glossary: Fenwick - any unblocked shot attempt (goals, shots on net and misses) outside of the shootout. Referred to as USAT by the NHL. FF% - Percentage of total Fenwick while that player is on the ice that are for that player's team. FF*100/(FF+FA)]

 

 

Runner up: Scott Wilson, same reason.

High FF% with ROR (54.0), abyssmal FF% without ROR (41.6).  The difference is that Scott Wilson's numbers were good because he earned time with ROR and Reinhart, giving him excellent linemates.  When he did not have those linemates, he had bad linemates, which dropped his FF%.  But the team FF% was worse (41.3) when Scott Wilson played without those two players than the rest of the team was without those three players (46.9), meaning that if Scott Wilson was on the ice without ROR or Reinhart, the team was awful.  Giving him only Sam brought the team back to its relative average (46.9), which is still bad  The bottom six was awful last year, and I hope new linemates will give Scott a fresh start, but it's possible that without ROR, Wilson may be part of the problem.

Unpopular opinion:  Ryan O’Reilly benefited more from Sam Reinhart than the other way around.

Prediction: it might not show because team, but Sam Reinhart becomes a better play than Ryan O’Reilly this year.

[Randall Flagg]

18 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Unpopular opinion:  Ryan O’Reilly benefited more from Sam Reinhart than the other way around.

Prediction: it might not show because team, but Sam Reinhart becomes a better play than Ryan O’Reilly this year.

Replace "unpopular" with "incorrect" and you've got it ?

[TrueBlueGED]

23 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Unpopular opinion:  Ryan O’Reilly benefited more from Sam Reinhart than the other way around.

Prediction: it might not show because team, but Sam Reinhart becomes a better play than Ryan O’Reilly this year.

You're officially off the reservation. This is as bad as when you mused "What if this Lehner is the real Lehner" when he was in the midst of a stretch that would make Price in his prime look pedestrian. 

[Randall Flagg]

Full disclaimer: If Reinhart is 2018 Reinhart, or even better, I agree with dudacek that he'll be better for us this year than ROR will be for STL.

[dudacek]

I’m enjoying the evening sun on the deck after a hard day’s renovation and too many brews.

But I will stand behind the Drunken Reinhart Ramblings. 

[3putt]

Erod.  AHLer at best.  He will be exposed as such if put in any meaningful situations. 

[nfreeman]

Well, Flagg sure is being a poopy-pants.  

[pi2000]

44 minutes ago, 3putt said:

Erod.  AHLer at best.  He will be exposed as such if put in any meaningful situations. 

this

[GoPuckYourself]

6 hours ago, Randall Flagg said:

Pushing the line of thinking further, 

I fully understand that in hockey, random and crazy things can happen all the time. people can go from 6 goals to 43 in a different situation, 5 months later. Young guys come out of nowhere, talents just like Jack take a next step and blow away their previous year's totals. But this stuff is inherently unpredictable, so while it's perfectly reasonable for people to suggest that Jack and Casey are MacKinnon and Keller, I will always lean towards what I can see and deduce with what I have. And as it stands, I see no net roster improvement outside of a defensive rookie, who may be great, and who may look like the guy what was 3rd on his team in defensive scoring in a league a few tiers down from the NHL. Since we don't have evidence just yet that he'll be a Calder contender, I'll be modest and assume we're adding a 4D to what is widely considered a probably-bottom-3 defense, deserved or not.

I don't think Botterill has done enough at this point (and fully acknowledge he has months remaining to do so) to remove us from the basement, and I also think it's imperative that he DOES remove us, now, this season. This season matters. This season always matters. We can't just write it off noting that in 3 years Jack, Dahlin and Casey are studs. We literally just got done doing that when we drafted Jack, and we're in last place, and I can pull posts from each and every one of us with this attitude back in 2015, me included, that would make us downright embarrassed. Dahlin and a backup goalie are the only additions he's made, and they COULD couple with a full year of Casey to let us be NJ, but BETTING on this to happen has occurred on this board and many others every year since Black Sunday, and is outside the lens through which I try to live my life. He shouldn't be satisfied with what he's done and I'm not either.

Another season, or even just start, like this year, as everyone but Jack has been cast aside as scapegoats, either off the team, or out of the eyes of fans, will be incredibly damaging to Jack's development and could be a part of the alteration of his career course. I believe every individual has agency, but I also believe that it is impossible to succeed in the levels of dysfunction that have been hinted at or seen right out in the open since he got here. And they might not be gone yet, given the worry that has been expressed about our analytics department expecting Sobotka to be a lockdown contributor because of his Corsi. (No, not from a tangible source, but from deductions we've made as a board based on information they've given us). 

I just worry that another bad start and down year will have us chomping at the bit w.r.t. Jack and Sam, which is bad, both because it's misplaced (as it stands right now, there is nothing objective to point to that will suggest immediate on-ice improvement - and once again, I'm not saying there's zero chance we have a fun, good season, I'm just saying it would be by definition one of those pleasant surprise stories which, by definition, come from nowhere) and because I have heard enough to believe that this is literally just what we got done with - bad team with ROR having the biggest role arguably of any non-offensive-specialist skater in the world, ROR is sad, ROR is locker problem, ROR gone after artificially and meticulously maneuvering out of any leverage we had with the player and the asset. I've now heard from two sources (both somebody I know, and reading someone else hear a similar story, my 'source' knows our franchise, the other is a supposed NHL insider), that our locker room is an average NHL locker room except the noted lack of talent, and the tendency for stories like fractured locker rooms to come out just as a function of bad seasons and not out of any tangible reality was upheld in our situation. In short, there is no story to our locker room, everyone is as fine with anyone else as can be in a work environment, and everyone hates being such a bad team.

And I believe this, because I can link everyone here to an article from any reputable source that says that ROR isolated himself and didn't have friends, ROR hated Jack, ROR was the problem, and then a separate article that says everyone hates Jack around the league and Jack is the source of all problems but the franchise has to hitch themselves to him. And they're all short on anything other than speculation about why the team with bottom 3 goaltending and worst depth scoring in the NHL with the franchise depth of the worst and most prolonged tank in modern NHL history may suck. 

Jason, the fate of the team is on you and your moves and your sapping of already-bad depth when you first got here. There are no more locker room scapegoats that wouldn't result in everything, including your position, being blown up again. Don't assume that Berglund's corsi means we're a better team today, and don't assume that removing the moody vegan will inherently make your team better at the thing it objectively sucks at. Please 

Botteril hasn't done enough? Well we drafted the Connor McDavid on defense, wen't out and traded a 3rd round pick for Sheary who has excellent potential, got a solid goal tender to pair with Ullmark and that should be a much improved area, traded away what appeared to be the cause of the locker room going to (even though you state oitherwise) and we brought in 2 high character vets in Bergland and Sobotka. I get that there is still work to be done but you pretty much said the moves he did make were crap because you don't think they'll pan out? That's fine if we all thought the same it wouldn't be much fun but man have even the slightest bit of optimism.

Edited July 9, 2018 by GoPuckYourself

[North Buffalo]

Is it October yet? or at least September?  Man this offseason is gonna be hell... https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=etAIpkdhU9Q

Edited July 9, 2018 by North Buffalo

[nucci]

18 hours ago, Ho-Chi-Sock said:

There's been too much optimism around here. We need to get this place back to the "Because Buffalo" hot takes we all know and love.

 

If Girgensons is here for another year, he'll be checked out moreso than Kane was just before the deadline. Same with Baloo, assuming either of them make the roster.

we were the worst team in the league.....impossible for anyone to take a step back

[LGR4GM]

How can a team that had historically low shooting percentages, shot metrics, some abysmal goaltending, terrible possession metrics, etc... have players that will take a step back? What are the gonna do? Suck more. Oh no Nathan Baloo got 7 points instead of 9! The horror. 

[Doohickie]

11 hours ago, 3putt said:

Erod.  AHLer at best.  He will be exposed as such if put in any meaningful situations. 

I can see why you would say that, but that is such a Buffalo thing to say.  Is it that hard to believe that we actually hit on an unsung prospect?

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Lehner ...

?

[Randall Flagg]

8 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Botteril hasn't done enough? Well we drafted the Connor McDavid on defense, wen't out and traded a 3rd round pick for Sheary who has excellent potential, got a solid goal tender to pair with Ullmark and that should be a much improved area, traded away what appeared to be the cause of the locker room going to (even though you state oitherwise) and we brought in 2 high character vets in Bergland and Sobotka. I get that there is still work to be done but you pretty much said the moves he did make were crap because you don't think they'll pan out? That's fine if we all thought the same it wouldn't be much fun but man have even the slightest bit of optimism.

No, he hasn't. By literally any measure our forward talent got slightly worse when all of the net moves are combined together, and our underlying scoring metrics (expected goals) got a little more than slightly worse. Then he made a draft pick that anyone would have made. Like I said, if I came back to you in early May, with the Sabres fresh on your mind, and said that we're only adding Dahlin to the D and that's it, you and everyone on this board would be furious. Our solid goaltender may or may not be a good addition, but again, it's something literally any replacement GM would have done after dumping Lehner. Should I give Botts a pat on the back for noticing the most obvious thing in the world, that Lehner needed to be replaced? 

He might not be done yet, we have a whole summer. I'm just saying that if he chooses to stop adding to the roster now, and we go into next season as so, the literal only thing that will save his job is an unpredictable burst of talent. Which absolutely might happen, but it's literally foolish to rely on this when you're in a league which allows for things such as transactions with the goal of making your team better. 

Not every move that looks good on paper will make your team better, but GMs that improve their team on paper are more successful than ones waiting on the Cinderella story. Which, again, isn't impossible, because of additions like Casey and Dahlin. But it'd be pretty damn easy to make additions to this roster for cheap that make it better on paper, and he's not doing it. For example, he could have kept Ryan O'Reilly AND added the two St. Louis vets, for a literal pick, as Armstrong has been trying to move them for at least a year, and longer for Patrik. There are other Sheary moves out there. He just shouldn't be done, is all I'm saying, because we ARE a last place team, that has made minimal if any proven net additions. 

Literally

[erickompositör72]

14 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

I can see why you would say that, but that is such a Buffalo thing to say.  Is it that hard to believe that we actually hit on an unsung prospect?

ERod shows flashes of how I remember Pominville in his prime, but not as strong on his legs and not as strong on the puck. If he doesn't address the strength issue and become harder to check, I think the fear is well-founded. Reinhart addressed this very issue, so hopefully ERod can as well.

[Drunkard]

It depends on who at forward gets saddled with O'Reilly defensive minutes. Whether it's Eichel, Reinhart, Berglund, or someone else, I expect that person playing center to have a decrease in offensive production. O'Reilly was a model of consistency. I think his production despite playing some of the most difficult minutes won't be easy to replace.

[Randall Flagg]

6 minutes ago, Alkoholist said:

It depends on who at forward gets saddled with O'Reilly defensive minutes. Whether it's Eichel, Reinhart, Berglund, or someone else, I expect that person playing center to have a decrease in offensive production. O'Reilly was a model of consistency. I think his production despite playing some of the most difficult minutes won't be easy to replace.

I think there were two streaks in ROR's career here where he went ~15 games without a goal and we never even noticed because he still had like 12-15 assists during the streaks.

[Drunkard]

5 minutes ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think there were two streaks in ROR's career here where he went ~15 games without a goal and we never even noticed because he still had like 12-15 assists during the streaks.

Yep. Being able to count on a guy for 20+ goals and 55+ points year in and year out while shouldering the load of difficult minutes is honestly quite remarkable. It will be interesting to see whether they just pick an unfortunate guy to replace him or if they attempt to replace him via committee, such as Berglund getting the difficult DZ minutes, Eichel getting the more difficult OZ minutes, or however they try to do it.

[TrueBlueGED]

1 hour ago, Randall Flagg said:

I think there were two streaks in ROR's career here where he went ~15 games without a goal and we never even noticed because he still had like 12-15 assists during the streaks.

Don't tell that to Paul Hamilton. 

[3putt]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

I can see why you would say that, but that is such a Buffalo thing to say.  Is it that hard to believe that we actually hit on an unsung prospect?

I have seen projections of EROD in the top 6.  He is at best a 4th line player.  When it comes time to match physicality and grind with other 4th lines he is conspicuously lacking.  Nelson is a nice unexpected find for the 7/8th dman so I don't think it is a "because buffalo" thing.  Erod is not that good at the things we need him to be good at.  He is not a top 6 player.  Again, the question was asked and this is JMHO. 

[Derrico]

Today I learned Ryan O'Reilly was the greatest hockey player of all time despite making the playoffs in 2 of his 9 NHL seasons.

Edit - with his team never winning a single playoff round. 

Edited July 9, 2018 by Derrico