UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[nfreeman]

The Athletic’s piece on Reino was indeed excellent, but it was largely premised on what I think is a false assumption: that it is either #1RW or #2C for Reino.  The #2RW slot, which I think is the right one for Reino, was not analyzed.  

I want Reino at #2RW with Casey and Sheary.  Sheltered minutes, 2 vets, 2 guys with speed, 2 guys who can pass and 3 guys who can score. 

[TrueBlueGED]

21 hours ago, dudacek said:

Another Athletic piece: this one an analytics-based piece that argues the Sabres might be better off with Reinhart at Centre.

I know @WildCard hates that stuff, but the choice quote:

“What we learn is that Reinhart has had a much greater impact in driving play than Eichel has since they’ve been in the league together.”

I love Ryan Stimson's work, but he has a huge problem: he's using Reinhart's numbers from the wing to argue he might be better at center. Maybe he's right and they translate seamlessly, but it's a poorly supported argument with the data presented. 

[TrueBlueGED]

21 hours ago, WildCard said:

An analytics article sounds like something I'd actually be interested in reading. Still won't pay for it though ?

Not that I expect to persuade you, but The Athletic has a ton of analytics-centric articles. I'm not going to research the specifics, but I think they have a stats-based writer for every market they're in. 

[Hoss]

19 hours ago, Derrico said:

But but but....won't somebody think of the starving journalists???

When you consider the thousands of American journalists who have been fired and/or been under constant attack from those convinced all media is bad these jokes aren’t as fun.

1 hour ago, TrueBlueGED said:

I love Ryan Stimson's work, but he has a huge problem: he's using Reinhart's numbers from the wing to argue he might be better at center. Maybe he's right and they translate seamlessly, but it's a poorly supported argument with the data presented. 

Indeed. There are plenty of examples of players who drive play from the wing or at least contribute to that role.

Patrick Sharp was a comparison I made and saw others comfortably make to Samson. I’d be interested in seeing a comparison between the two if Reinhart continues his role on the wing.

[3putt]

6 hours ago, Hoss said:

When you consider the thousands of American journalists who have been fired and/or been under constant attack from those convinced all media is bad these jokes aren’t as fun.

Indeed. There are plenty of examples of players who drive play from the wing or at least contribute to that role.

Patrick Sharp was a comparison I made and saw others comfortably make to Samson. I’d be interested in seeing a comparison between the two if Reinhart continues his role on the wing.

I like the Sharp analogy.  I think Sam fits a similar role.  Sharp was adequate when forced into center duty but was much more effective on the wing.

[Wyldnwoody44]

?????

 

Sam's contract will look something like this I imagine

[Weave]

7 hours ago, Hoss said:

When you consider the thousands of American journalists who have been fired and/or been under constant attack from those convinced all media is bad these jokes aren’t as fun.

Indeed. There are plenty of examples of players who drive play from the wing or at least contribute to that role.

Patrick Sharp was a comparison I made and saw others comfortably make to Samson. I’d be interested in seeing a comparison between the two if Reinhart continues his role on the wing.

The hell?  The Sharp comparison was made by me in his full rookie year.  You may have jumped on, but it wasn't an original thought of yours.

[dudacek]

Very interesting post about Reinhart from a guy on the Hockeysfuture board

I know these aren't advanced stats or anything, but I think it's useful to look at all the other players in the 3-year P/GP range of Reinhart as they come off ELC. I filtered out anyone that played less than 125 games over 3 years. In his own draft class

Larkin ($6.1M/6yrs) and Arvidsson ($4.25M/7yrs) are the most immediately comparable. Larkin is probably overpaid for his production, but he's valuable to Detroit as a hometown hero and arguably the highest ceiling player on their roster. At $6.1M, he's their highest paid player, but it makes sense for them. Nashville was smart to take the risk and lock up Arvidsson when they did (after a single 60 point season). Had we signed Reinhart last season, it's possible we'd be below or at $5M and hence closer to Arvidsson, but that ship has sailed since he has proven to be a consistent and improving 40-50 point forward.

The prior year's class:

A lot of good comparables here in Horvat ($5.5M/6rs), Lindholm ($4.85M/6yrs), Wennberg ($4.9M/6yrs), Drouin ($5.5M/6rs), and Domi ($3.15M/2yrs). Again, a whole slew of long term offers. Why? Because you don't bridge players of this caliber (unless you're Marc Bergevin)! I originally thought that's actually what Botterill would do, but looking at these figures and the $4.5-$5.75M figures that have been thrown out there, I have to think this is a 6 year deal we're talking about. If we were talking bridge, I doubt the Sabres would go any higher than $4M/yr, and their starting negotiation point would be closer to $3M.

2012:

Positively dreadful, with only Galchenyuk ($4.9M/3 yrs - another Bergevin special) and maybe Hertl ($5.625M/4yrs) as comparable players. I think Doug Wilson is a bit of an overrated GM, personally - let's hope Botterill doesn't follow his footsteps (or Bergevin's, heaven forbid).

And one more for fun:

Huberdeau ($5.9M/6yrs), Scheifele ($6.125M/8yrs - admittedly a pretty different situation, though), and Zibanejad ($5.35M/5yrs).

All of this to say - across 4 draft classes, there are roughly 12 players that had similar production to Reinhart coming off their ELCs, only 2 of which were bridge deals and handed out by arguably the worst GM in the league. If you count Hertl, that's just one more, and probably the least comparable player to Reinhart in this list. I have to think Botterill is going to follow the majority on this one and get Reinhart locked up for a longer term.

[Hoss]

13 hours ago, Weave said:

The hell?  The Sharp comparison was made by me in his full rookie year.  You may have jumped on, but it wasn't an original thought of yours.

I imagine it’s very possible two people had the same original thought.

[Weave]

28 minutes ago, Hoss said:

I imagine it’s very possible two people had the same original thought.

I imagine a search on the subject would show that thought unposted here.

Edited August 12, 2018 by Weave

[mjd1001]

5 hours ago, Hoss said:

I imagine it’s very possible two people had the same original thought.

I hear you.  I see a lot of posts here about peoople complaining that others are 'stealing' their ideas or pointing out that they want credit because they came up with something first.  It has happened to me before....I posted a theory here in the past that I never read before, and was jumped on by someone that said they thought of it first.  It is possible for 2 people to post the same thought...and just because one person posts it first doesn't mean the other person stole it from them.

[Hoss]

23 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I hear you.  I see a lot of posts here about peoople complaining that others are 'stealing' their ideas or pointing out that they want credit because they came up with something first.  It has happened to me before....I posted a theory here in the past that I never read before, and was jumped on by someone that said they thought of it first.  It is possible for 2 people to post the same thought...and just because one person posts it first doesn't mean the other person stole it from them.

There’s a reason I was turned off and stayed away for almost two years. Seems to be mostly a more welcoming place these days so that’s appreciated.

I remember having thought about Reinhart vs Sharp so early that I mentioned him wearing 10 in Kootenay as a connection.

[woods-racer]

On 8/10/2018 at 11:36 AM, dudacek said:

What are you basing this on?

This and where it is a two year contract that White is referencing.

Not sure if any of it's true, but if anyone has any other news to offer I would love to see it.

We are in to mid August now and no new rumors of being close. I would think that if Botterill was offering a comparable contract that was signed by players of Sam's age and output they would be extremely close to signing and not far apart as referenced again here.

[dudacek]

2 hours ago, woods-racer said:

This and where it is a two year contract that White is referencing.

Not sure if any of it's true, but if anyone has any other news to offer I would love to see it.

We are in to mid August now and no new rumors of being close. I would think that if Botterill was offering a comparable contract that was signed by players of Sam's age and output they would be extremely close to signing and not far apart as referenced again here.

Well, Larkin just signed and that’s an important comparable that might affect discussions. And the contracts keep dropping.

Looking at the other deals above, those number seem to indicate they have to talking  more long-term.

And the conversation is more about Sam thinking he should be making Larkin $$ and Botterill saying, nah, you’re more of a Lindholm-level guy.

Jack and Risto signed late in training camp. This deal will get done. 

 

[3putt]

23 hours ago, Weave said:

The hell?  The Sharp comparison was made by me in his full rookie year.  You may have jumped on, but it wasn't an original thought of yours.

Then I like your analogy too.?

[sweetlou]

Looking at comparable players like Zibanejad and Galcheyuk you would have to think a bridge deal of 2 or 3 years around $4.5 million AAV or a long term contract at 7 or 8 years at around $5.5 - $6 million AAV.

I'd prefer the 2 to 3 year option.  Show me consistency over a couple more years. Then you can sign him long term at even $7 million if he proves he is worth it. If he stays the same then you can sign him long term at the $5- $6 million range.  I am sure the Seattle factor and CBA is also playing a factor in the negotiations.

[LGR4GM]

I think he got offered a 1 year deal at or just above his qualifying offer with bonuses attached to make it in the 4.5mil range. I don't think Botterill was impressed with Reinhart phoning it in for 1/2 a season then showing up. 

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

I think he got offered a 1 year deal at or just above his qualifying offer with bonuses attached to make it in the 4.5mil range. I don't think Botterill was impressed with Reinhart phoning it in for 1/2 a season then showing up. 

Hmm... what I heard him say as the season went on seemed to indicate that Sam’s play moved him from a question mark to an important piece.

[darksabre]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Hmm... what I heard him say as the season went on seemed to indicate that Sam’s play moved him from a question mark to an important piece.

I think a lot of it is going to come down to off ice things that we aren't privy too. Did Sam have some conversations with J-Botts? Did Housley? What might have changed in his approach to the game that would indicate maturity and deserving of a better contract? There are a lot of unknowns around Reinhart re: how GM and coach feel about him. We don't know what has gone on between the three of them. 

[dudacek]

30 minutes ago, darksabre said:

I think a lot of it is going to come down to off ice things that we aren't privy too. Did Sam have some conversations with J-Botts? Did Housley? What might have changed in his approach to the game that would indicate maturity and deserving of a better contract? There are a lot of unknowns around Reinhart re: how GM and coach feel about him. We don't know what has gone on between the three of them. 

True.  But we do know he played like #### for the bulk of the first 40 games and like a legitimate first liner for the second half. And we know that Botterill noticeably rarely mentioned Sam in 2017 and has praised him unasked on multiple occasions in 2018.

Edited August 16, 2018 by dudacek

[darksabre]

9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

True.  But we do know he played like for the bulk of the first 40 games and like a legitimate first liner for the second half. And we know that Botterill noticeably rarely mentioned Sam in 2017 and has praised him unasked on multiple occasions in 2018.

I'm inclined to believe that he believes Sam has turned a corner. 

[Taro T]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I think he got offered a 1 year deal at or just above his qualifying offer with bonuses attached to make it in the 4.5mil range. I don't think Botterill was impressed with Reinhart phoning it in for 1/2 a season then showing up. 

You keep saying you expect a bonus laden contract.  He DOESN'T QUALIFY for performance bonuses.

 

[LGR4GM]

Why doesn't he qualify? 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Why doesn't he qualify? 

Because he doesn't fall under any of the 3 categories that would allow him to be offered one.

[Doohickie]

What are those categories?