UPDATE: Sam Reinhart signs 2-year extension -- $3.65MM per year

[LikeEich]

16 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think it is a Jbot thing. I think he offered a deal and Reinhart isn't sure he wants to sign it. 

I'm starting to think the same. I think he's being offered long term around 6M per, but he knows he's worth more and might want a bridge to prove it 

[Hoss]

I don’t think there’s a cinch of evidence out there right now dictating who is responsible for the status of Samson’s contract, let alone to talk actual numbers or years.

As it stands I blame neither because I don’t know enough, there is still plenty of time and there are several other high-profile RFAs remaining. It’s a negotiation. Until I hear otherwise nothing is wrong.

It’s not like a contract gets better as it marinated in the summer. I still have no reason to believe it will not be done before camp which is all that matters.

[LGR4GM]

6 hours ago, LikeEich said:

I'm starting to think the same. I think he's being offered long term around 6M per, but he knows he's worth more and might want a bridge to prove it 

I'm thinking he got offered 1 year at low money and that's the issue right now. 

[Hoss]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

I'm thinking he got offered 1 year at low money and that's the issue right now. 

 

8 hours ago, LikeEich said:

I'm starting to think the same. I think he's being offered long term around 6M per, but he knows he's worth more and might want a bridge to prove it 

Do you guys have some info on this? Just curious where we’re getting feelings and numbers from.

[darksabre]

6 minutes ago, Hoss said:

 

Do you guys have some info on this? Just curious where we’re getting feelings and numbers from.

It's all speculation. There's not a hint of info out there on what is actually happening with Reinhart. Which in my opinion probably means the two parties are closer together than we think and are simply not in a hurry to get things done until players are back in town for camp. Gotta be able to do a press conference right? 

[LGR4GM]

9 minutes ago, Hoss said:

 

Do you guys have some info on this? Just curious where we’re getting feelings and numbers from.

I think, and I may be wrong, that Botterill was not impressed with Reinhart spending half the season sucking and therefore lowballed him this offseason with a 1 year prove it contract. 

2 minutes ago, darksabre said:

It's all speculation. There's not a hint of info out there on what is actually happening with Reinhart. Which in my opinion probably means the two parties are closer together than we think and are simply not in a hurry to get things done until players are back in town for camp. Gotta be able to do a press conference right? 

A good portion of the team is already back. 

[darksabre]

1 minute ago, LGR4GM said:

I think, and I may be wrong, that Botterill was not impressed with Reinhart spending half the season sucking and therefore lowballed him this offseason with a 1 year prove it contract. 

A good portion of the team is already back. 

Sure, but they'll wait till camp. Then they can have all the media there and yada yada yada 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

 

Do you guys have some info on this? Just curious where we’re getting feelings and numbers from.

I don't think there's anything wrong with speculating as to what's going on behind the scenes -- it's a high percentage of this board's content.

IMHO, it's entirely logical to consider Reino's career, especially last season, and the fact that players generally prefer long-term deals, and JBott's various public statements about his team-building philosophy, and conclude that JBott wants a short-term deal while Reino wants a long-term deal.

[Hoss]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think there's anything wrong with speculating as to what's going on behind the scenes -- it's a high percentage of this board's content.

IMHO, it's entirely logical to consider Reino's career, especially last season, and the fact that players generally prefer long-term deals, and JBott's various public statements about his team-building philosophy, and conclude that JBott wants a short-term deal while Reino wants a long-term deal.

Speculation is fine. I do it as much as anyone. I just wasn’t sure if there was more than what I’d seen.

I’m not sure Reinhart wants a long-term deal right now. He knows the ballpark of what he’s worth and might not think it makes sense. If that’s the case the opposite of what’s been speculated could potentially be true.

[MakeSabresGrr8Again]

2 hours ago, Hoss said:

 

Do you guys have some info on this? Just curious where we’re getting feelings and numbers from.

Jeremy White from WGR55 tweeted he "heard" Reinhart was asking 5.75M and Sabres offering 4.5M. There is a link to it on page #9 of this thread.....I think that's where every is working off of.

[Hoss]

2 minutes ago, MakeSabresGrr8Again said:

Jeremy White from WGR55 tweeted he "heard" Reinhart was asking 5.75M and Sabres offering 4.5M. There is a link to it on page #9 of this thread.....I think that's where every is working off of.

I recall that now. I’m not convinced he’s reliable yet. I guess we’ll see.

[dudacek]

I’ve heard Botterill say multiple times that Sam is a big part of Buffalo’s future.

I interpret that as he’d like to sign him long-term. I think he is attempting to leverage Sam’s crappy first half into a Sabres-friendly deal. $4.5 strikes me as a good starting point, a la Arvidsson’s 7-year, $4.25-million deal.

Sam’s team is interested but not at that $. They are using Drouin’s 6x$5.5 as a comparable. Which makes $5.75 make sense.

A risky-to-both-sides one-year deal is the leverage being used by either side.

Doesnt look to me like a huge gap to bridge, but we shall see.

[Thorny]

6 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think there's anything wrong with speculating as to what's going on behind the scenes -- it's a high percentage of this board's content.

IMHO, it's entirely logical to consider Reino's career, especially last season, and the fact that players generally prefer long-term deals, and JBott's various public statements about his team-building philosophy, and conclude that JBott wants a short-term deal while Reino wants a long-term deal.

My guess is that Botterill is looking at Reinhart's season and thinking, hey, even when he crapped the bed for the first 40 odd games, he was able to put things together into a 25/25/50 season, that with the cap continually going up is easily worth something like 5.5m per as it is, without getting into the fact that that's probably Reino's absolute baseline at this point. He could *easily* develop his value far beyond that, what with his young age and built in potential (he was #2 for a reason), and the likely improvement of the team on the way. 

The chances of Reinhart performing at a value below something around 5.5 million seems much less likely. I think Botterill would love to get Sam locked up long term for an AAV in that ballpark. If he bridges Reinhart, there's probably much more risk of Sam significantly bumping up his AAV value than there is risk in Reinhart somehow underperforming on a 5.5m AAV long term deal. 

Reinhart's brain is probably telling him to sign a bridge and cash in later, but in his heart of hearts, it's going to be difficult to avoid putting down your signature on piece of paper this offseason that represents ~40m guaranteed.

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, Thorny said:

My guess is that Botterill is looking at Reinhart's season and thinking, hey, even when he crapped the bed for the first 40 odd games, he was able to put things together into a 25/25/50 season, that with the cap continually going up is easily worth something like 5.5m per as it is, without getting into the fact that that's probably Reino's absolute baseline at this point. He could *easily* develop his value far beyond that, what with his young age and built in potential (he was #2 for a reason), and the likely improvement of the team on the way.  

The chances of Reinhart performing at a value below something around 5.5 million seems much less likely. I think Botterill would love to get Sam locked up long term for an AAV in that ballpark. If he bridges Reinhart, there's probably much more risk of Sam significantly bumping up his AAV value than there is risk in Reinhart somehow underperforming on a 5.5m AAV long term deal. 

Reinhart's brain is probably telling him to sign a bridge and cash in later, but in his heart of hearts, it's going to be difficult to avoid putting down your signature on piece of paper this offseason that represents ~40m guaranteed.

I think Reino's last season was worth well below $5.5MM, and would be quite unhappy if the Sabres committed to pay him that much for the next 5-6 years and got 5-6 seasons like what Reino delivered last year.

Frankly, if my crystal ball told me that Reino was going to deliver that kind of season every year, I would try to unload him and there is NFW I would give him a long-term deal.

[dudacek]

2 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I think Reino's last season was worth well below $5.5MM, and would be quite unhappy if the Sabres committed to pay him that much for the next 5-6 years and got 5-6 seasons like what Reino delivered last year.

Frankly, if my crystal ball told me that Reino was going to deliver that kind of season every year, I would try to unload him and there is NFW I would give him a long-term deal.

What do think 25-goal, 50-Point players get paid these days in the NHL?

[nfreeman]

Just now, dudacek said:

What do think 25-goal, 50-Point players get paid these days in the NHL?

On my team, they don't twiddle their thumbs for the first half of the season while the season goes down the drain, then put up numbers in a series of meaningless games, and then get rewarded with a fat, long-term deal.

[dudacek]

40 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

On my team, they don't twiddle their thumbs for the first half of the season while the season goes down the drain, then put up numbers in a series of meaningless games, and then get rewarded with a fat, long-term deal.

So you are going to put heavy weight on just three months of his three seasons?

Obviously not apples to apples, but Sam finished in a tie for 59th in goal scoring last year. The 60thhighest paid player got 6.3 million AAV. 182 players will make $5 million this year.

What are you going to pay your 25 goal scorer who sucked for three months, starred for three months and was pretty consistent for the two years before that?

Edited August 29, 2018 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

Before I can be OK with giving him a long-term deal, I need to know that Reino is part of the solution and not part of the problem.  His play last year looked a lot more like he was part of the problem.

As for the 2 years before then -- I don't agree that he was pretty consistent, although it wasn't night-and-day like last year.  Still, there were plenty of long stretches in his 1st 2 years in which he was completely ineffective.  I am pretty sure he went something like 28 games in his second year with 1 even-strength goal.

More to the point, his 3 years of work to date makes me NOT want to give him a long-term deal.  He's a young, highly paid high draft pick who's put up OK numbers on a terrible team that apparently has had serious off-ice issues.  He hasn't displayed any leadership or difference-making whatsoever.  That is exactly the kind of guy I want to wait and see on.  Because he very much fits the profile of an entitled guy who gets a fat contract and then immediately plateaus. 

And if he gets the bridge deal he deserves, uses it as motivation and then turns into a consistent 65-point guy who doesn't hide under the bed when it counts?  I'm happy to pay him the extra $1.5MM per year that he'll have earned.

 

[dudacek]

33 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Before I can be OK with giving him a long-term deal, I need to know that Reino is part of the solution and not part of the problem.  His play last year looked a lot more like he was part of the problem.

As for the 2 years before then -- I don't agree that he was pretty consistent, although it wasn't night-and-day like last year.  Still, there were plenty of long stretches in his 1st 2 years in which he was completely ineffective.  I am pretty sure he went something like 28 games in his second year with 1 even-strength goal.

More to the point, his 3 years of work to date makes me NOT want to give him a long-term deal.  He's a young, highly paid high draft pick who's put up OK numbers on a terrible team that apparently has had serious off-ice issues.  He hasn't displayed any leadership or difference-making whatsoever.  That is exactly the kind of guy I want to wait and see on.  Because he very much fits the profile of an entitled guy who gets a fat contract and then immediately plateaus. 

And if he gets the bridge deal he deserves, uses it as motivation and then turns into a consistent 65-point guy who doesn't hide under the bed when it counts?  I'm happy to pay him the extra $1.5MM per year that he'll have earned.

 

No I get that “no long term deal” is your take on Sam and it’s a defensible one, even if I disagree.

What I am trying to get is what you think a 50-Point player (and they pretty much all score in streaks) gets, in general? And since you bring it up, what do think a 65-Point player gets? Because I think it’s higher than you think it is, but maybe I’m wrong. You never respond to posts about comparables, only that you don’t trust Sam enough to pay him.

You can’t possibly think a consistent 65-Point player is going to sign for anywhere near $5 million?

(We’d have to gnore the elephant in the room of 65-Point Jack Eichel getting paid $10 million.)

40-point-ceiling middle six players like Patrik Berglund get $4 million a year. Sam’s worst season is 42 points and he’s not even 23 yet.

Edited August 29, 2018 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

I don’t doubt that many 50-point guys get $5MM.  However, (i) not all 50-point guys are created equally and (ii) I don’t think the Sabres need to repeat other teams’ mistakes (by paying guys too much, which can happen pretty easily if the decision is based solely on points). 

I think I said above that I was OK with paying more for a consistent 65-point guy — which I assume would be north of $6MM per year.  

[tom webster]

Close. Looking long term.

[LGR4GM]

5 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Close. Looking long term.

Jeremy White‏Verified account @JeremyWGR 2h2 hours ago

MorQuick #Sabres note - Secret Sabres Twitter guy says they're heating up on Reinhart front. Feeling is they're much closer. FWIW.

[tom webster]

Damn Jeremy White been beating me to it lately.

[erickompositör72]

We are very lucky Reinhart played poorly the first half of last season.

Not only did it help us get Dahlin, but it will allow us to sign him long-term for less than he's worth. We may get up to 8 years of 2018 Reinhart, and I really believe that's just his new floor. Very high ceiling.

[Thorny]