Sabres Trying to Avoid Snap Decision with Reinhart

[dudacek]

No one is trading for Moulson unless the sweetener is pretty GD sweet -- i.e. at least a 2nd-rounder (or unless the Sabres take back a bad contract in return -- but that defeats the purpose).

You might be right. And I suspect that if Moulson is moved it will be as a contract dump in a larger trade, similar to Ennis/Pominville last year.

However, Moulson put up more than 30 points last year. Pretty good numbers for a $2 million player.

So I don't think the idea is as far-fetched as you suggest.

Edited October 19, 2017 by dudacek

[JohnRobertEichel]

I crunched the numbers for this a few months back, and I found that we absolutely could keep all of Kane and Reinhart and Lehner. It was going to be very tight, though, for next season only. Some things I factored in to my calculations:

 

1. I was able to trade Moulson.

2. I bought out Bogosian.

3. Ullmark, Guhle, Nylander, Bailey, and Baptiste all made the full-time roster.

 

Depending on how the numbers end up, another option might be to trade Pominville and his 1-year, $5 million contract. He's a very productive forward but is also in his mid-30's and clearly isn't part of the future.

 

I'm also not sure that Lehner is part of our future anymore. So maybe Kane and Reinhart will be our only $2million+ free agents during the off-season.

[dudacek]

Does Sam's pending free agency play into this?  I think it's less about Sam vs what we have or what's coming.  Talks like this has to be about do we want to pay him 5+ mil/year.  I think they'd be happy to on a bridge deal but does Sam settle for that?

 

If Sam doesn't start producing, he'll take what he's offered.

 

Look what happened this summer:

Sam Bennett is on a $1.9 million deal, Zadorov took $2.1 and Anthony Duclair $1.2 coming off poor seasons

Connor Brown took 2.1 Viktor Arvidsson 4.2 and Connor Sheary 3 coming off good years.

 

Alex Wennberg signed for $4.9 coming off a 59-point season. Nikolai Ehlers for $6 after posting 64 points.

If Sam wants a sniff at $5 million per, those are the numbers he will have to put up.

Edited October 19, 2017 by dudacek

[Radar]

Am I alone in having a much higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey? Yeah, they have not looked good but seven games and less than a month in? They are , in my mind, more talented than what we've seen.

[GASabresIUFAN]

If Sam doesn't start producing, he'll take what he's offered.

 

Look what happened this summer:

Sam Bennett is on a $1.9 million deal, Zadorov took $2.1 and Anthony Duclair $1.2 coming off poor seasons

Connor Brown took 2.1 Viktor Arvidsson 4.2 and Connor Sheary 3 coming off good years.

 

Alex Wennberg signed for $4.9 coming off a 59-point season. Nikolai Ehlers for $6 after posting 64 points.

If Sam wants a sniff at $5 million per, those are the numbers he will have to put up.

Sam is putting up 45 pts this year easily.  He gets time on the 1st PP and on 2nd line wing, he'll get his pts.

 

To paraphrase from Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park on the re-signing of Evander Kane, this board is so preoccupied with whether we could re-sign Kane, you aren't stopping to think if we should.  

 

Lets review Kane and his history in the NHL.  Best season was his first contract year. in 2011-12 when he had 30g and 57 pts.  He has averaged only 65 games a season in recent years do to injuries.  In fact, the most games he has ever played in a season is 74 and that was 2011-12 (also his first contract year).  His highest pt total outside the career year is 43. He is a volume shooter who typically doesn't pass the puck to others in better scoring position. This fact is one of the reasons Wowie moved him off Jack's line earlier this year. He is also at the league average 9% shooting % for his career.    He'll also be 27 next fall.  

 

Lets say he blows it out this season, stays healthy and has 35 goals w 28 assists.  Are you really going to pony up 49 mill for 7 years to keep him when he'll be 33 when the contract expires and you have Mittelstadt, Nylander, Asplund and Pu coming up in the system?

Edited October 19, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Randall Flagg]

Am I alone in having a much higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey? Yeah, they have not looked good but seven games and less than a month in? They are , in my mind, more talented than what we've seen.

Agreed and I think a lot of what we are seeing is unsustainable and will get better with more time playing together under Phil. 

 

I just hope they're keeping their spirits up. The season is not over yet. we replicate the last two games these next two and we equal the October record of the team that put a scare in the President's Trophy winner last playoffs. 

[nfreeman]

Sam is putting up 45 pts this year easily.  He gets time on the 1st PP and on 2nd line wing, he'll get his pts.

 

To paraphrase from Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park on the re-signing of Evander Kane, this board is so preoccupied with whether we could re-sign Kane, you aren't stopping to think if we should.  

 

Lets review Kane and his history in the NHL.  Best season was his first contract year. in 2011-12 when he had 30g and 57 pts.  He has averaged only 65 games a season in recent years do to injuries.  In fact, the most games he has ever played in a season is 74 and that was 2011-12 (also his first contract year).  His highest pt total outside the career year is 43. He is a volume shooter who typically doesn't pass the puck to others in better scoring position. This fact is one of the reasons Wowie moved him off Jack's line earlier this year. He is also at the league average 9% shooting % for his career.    He'll also be 27 next fall.  

 

Lets say he blows it out this season, stays healthy and has 35 goals w 28 assists.  Are you really going to pony up 49 mill for 7 years to keep him when he'll be 33 when the contract expires and you have Mittelstadt, Nylander, Asplund and Pu coming up in the system?

 

You make it sound like those 4 are locks to be high-end NHL forwards.

 

It's at least 50/50 that NONE of them ever scores 25 goals in a season, let alone 28 or 30 (both of which Kane has done, and it's pretty likely that he hits that level again this year).

 

It's almost certain that at least 1 of them is a complete washout, and that another 1 is never more than a 3rd-line, 10-goal guy.

 

There are valid reasons not to re-sign Kane, as there are valid reasons to re-sign him -- but those 4 guys have nothing to do with it.

[Thorny]

^Right. There are a ton of reasons that point to why signing Kane to a long term deal could blow up in our faces.

 

...and it STILL might be the best option, given how lacking we are of real talent.

 

It's a mark of where we are at talent wise.

[JohnRobertEichel]

Sam is putting up 45 pts this year easily.  He gets time on the 1st PP and on 2nd line wing, he'll get his pts.

 

To paraphrase from Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park on the re-signing of Evander Kane, this board is so preoccupied with whether we could re-sign Kane, you aren't stopping to think if we should.  

 

Lets review Kane and his history in the NHL.  Best season was his first contract year. in 2011-12 when he had 30g and 57 pts.  He has averaged only 65 games a season in recent years do to injuries.  In fact, the most games he has ever played in a season is 74 and that was 2011-12 (also his first contract year).  His highest pt total outside the career year is 43. He is a volume shooter who typically doesn't pass the puck to others in better scoring position. This fact is one of the reasons Wowie moved him off Jack's line earlier this year. He is also at the league average 9% shooting % for his career.    He'll also be 27 next fall.  

 

Lets say he blows it out this season, stays healthy and has 35 goals w 28 assists.  Are you really going to pony up 49 mill for 7 years to keep him when he'll be 33 when the contract expires and you have Mittelstadt, Nylander, Asplund and Pu coming up in the system?

 

Keep in mind the following:

 

1. The salaries of Okposo and O'Reilly drop over the life of the contract as the salaries of Reinhart, Mittelstadt, and Nylander can be expected to increase.

2. You can expect the NHL salary cap to continue to increase over the next 5+ years.

3. We don't currently have - and are unlikely to obtain - an elite goalie and elite defenders (elite = super expensive). This team is being built to roll 3 genuine scoring lines while largely relying on coaching and "the system" to maintain an above-average defense.

4. The albatross contracts for Bogosian, Moulson, and Gorges will be long gone by the time we expect to pay Mittelstadt, Reinhart, and Nylander the big bucks we hope they deserve.

5. No one is seriously expecting Asplund or Pu to become top-6 NHL forwards.

6. Kane is one of the very few Sabres forwards that is actually producing. Why not reward players in their prime who produce? The aspiration now should be winning games and not extending a seemingly perpetual build/rebuild process.

7. Most young adults like Kane mature a lot by the time they enter their late 20's, and all accounts suggest that his teammates like him.

8. Kane's next big contract is predicated on staying healthy this year. If he does so, would it be fair to label him "injury-prone?" 

[dudacek]

Am I alone in having a much higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey? Yeah, they have not looked good but seven games and less than a month in? They are , in my mind, more talented than what we've seen.

I thought that last year.

And I still think it this year for two reasons:

 

1) seven games is a small sample size

2) changing bad habits and culture takes time,

 

Sam Reinhart, Kyle Okposo and Ryan O'Reilly are significantly better than what their starts have shown. That's a proven fact.

I believe the same is true for Scandella, McCabe and Ristolainen.

Kane's elite play won't last, but Eichel is really that good.

 

What scares me is that the players may not believe in themselves enough to push through this; that is Housley biggest challenge and what Freeman has been warning for years about what tanking can do.

[SwampD]

Am I alone in having a much higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey? Yeah, they have not looked good but seven games and less than a month in? They are , in my mind, more talented than what we've seen.

Everyone has a higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey.

[Taro T]

Sam is putting up 45 pts this year easily.  He gets time on the 1st PP and on 2nd line wing, he'll get his pts.

 

To paraphrase from Jeff Goldblum in Jurassic Park on the re-signing of Evander Kane, this board is so preoccupied with whether we could re-sign Kane, you aren't stopping to think if we should.  

 

Lets review Kane and his history in the NHL.  Best season was his first contract year. in 2011-12 when he had 30g and 57 pts.  He has averaged only 65 games a season in recent years do to injuries.  In fact, the most games he has ever played in a season is 74 and that was 2011-12 (also his first contract year).  His highest pt total outside the career year is 43. He is a volume shooter who typically doesn't pass the puck to others in better scoring position. This fact is one of the reasons Wowie moved him off Jack's line earlier this year. He is also at the league average 9% shooting % for his career.    He'll also be 27 next fall.  

 

Lets say he blows it out this season, stays healthy and has 35 goals w 28 assists.  Are you really going to pony up 49 mill for 7 years to keep him when he'll be 33 when the contract expires and you have Mittelstadt, Nylander, Asplund and Pu coming up in the system?

Though my preference would be Kane @ $6.5/yr for 7, $49 through 7 should be doable, especially if it is front loaded. My willingness to do that is predicated on using him like the Pens use the Pilsbury Dough Boy. If they insist on keeping him glued to Eichel's side, then, no, trade him.

 

Really believe we'll be glad we have him when the playoffs roll around & the Sabres are actually in them.

[Pokey Jones]

if you trade Moulson  you might be able to

Oh come on, ain't nobody going to trade for Moulson. Only possible way you could unload him is to give a team a prospect or pick they want for next to nothing if they also take Moulson and his salary against their cap and that could only happen with some rebuild team that has already dumped salary of their own.   

[7+6=13]

Oh come on, ain't nobody going to trade for Moulson. Only possible way you could unload him is to give a team a prospect or pick they want for next to nothing if they also take Moulson and his salary against their cap and that could only happen with some rebuild team that has already dumped salary of their own.   

 

Both his cap hit vs salary and production vs salary have already been answered above.  They aren't giving away a prospect to unload $2 mil in salary.

[Thorny]

Though my preference would be Kane @ $6.5/yr for 7, $49 through 7 should be doable, especially if it is front loaded. My willingness to do that is predicated on using him like the Pens use the Pilsbury Dough Boy. If they insist on keeping him glued to Eichel's side, then, no, trade him.

Really believe we'll be glad we have him when the playoffs roll around & the Sabres are actually in them.

Wanting to see Kane in the playoffs is one of the big reasons I want to keep him.

[Sabre fan]

Last summer I suggested that a) maybe it is time to visit thoughts of trading O'Reilly to free up massive cap space. and b) that either trading or signing kane is he most important issue with his club. I still think both of these are valid thoughts but also think that what we do with Sam is very important too.he is far too young to ruin by not showing any confidence or hope in him and devalue him to a point where even he himself starts to doubt himself. Confidence plays such a big part in any player's career. Look at guys like McDavid, Kane (both of them), Mathews etc...hey play with a chip on their shoulder and are very confident to he point of almost arrogance.  

[LGR4GM]

There is nothing Kane good do this year, short of a 40goal 40assist season to convince me to sign him to a 7 year deal.  5years if I am bringing him back. Front load the crap out of the money part.  

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Everyone has a higher opinion of the talent on this team than Pokey.

 

Post of the day, right here.

 

:w00t:

Post of the day, right here.

 

:w00t:

 

Quoting myself as if I am talking to myself ...

 

I really think that Pokey has taken over the account of GoDD, minus the tangents.

[Iron Crotch]

I'm still not sold on Reinhart and never have been. He has good hands and vision, but he doesn't win enough puck battles... doesn't show enough desire and "want to" in his game shift-after-shift for my liking... personally I don't see a guy who competes at the level that it takes to win consistently. The guy has the worst +/- on the team and I'm not sure that is just a random coincidence.

 

Given he is young and skilled, I think Reinhart could bring a lot back in return were he to be traded. And, IMHO, we need a top-4 defenseman much more than a scoring winger or 3rd line center (depending on how you see Samson).

 

Of course, after saying all this, Samson will probably go out and score a hat trick tonight!  :D

 

[dudacek]

The guy has the worst +/- on the team and I'm not sure that is just a random coincidence.

 

 

Given that about half his minuses were collected on the PP, where he is — by design — the farthest guy away from his own team's net, and that more than half were collected in the Islander game where his defence looked like they were playing for the other team — it might be random coincidence.

[Wyldnwoody44]

Plus minus is a terrible stat....its even less meaningful when looking at that this particular season to Date

[Iron Crotch]

Plus minus is a terrible stat....its even less meaningful when looking at that this particular season to Date

 

I realize it's all the rage to call +/- a useless stat. But the stat has some merit in a relative sense (i.e., within-team, not across teams) when standardized for minutes played (i.e., over 60 minutes) and when eliminating non-even strength inputs. Not a perfect measure of within-team impact by any means, but not completely useless as the non-statisticians like to argue. It does contain a degree of diagnostic information when looking only at 5-on-5 +/- and standardizing TOI over 60 minutes and considering it over the long-term, which washed out much of the short-term random noise. There are many nice adjusted +/- models out there (e.g., MacDonald 2011).

 

With Samson thus far in the young season it is pretty simple. We're not scoring when he's out there. Obviously we're only 7 games in, but it is a concern IMHO.

[That Aud Smell]

With Samson thus far in the young season it is pretty simple. We're not scoring when he's out there. Obviously we're only 7 games in, but it is a concern IMHO.

 

But maybe too simple. We also saw the stat that the team is out-chancing its opponents like 3 or 4 to 1 when he's out there, but shooting below 3% as well.

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Plus minus is a terrible stat....its even less meaningful when looking at that this particular season to Date

 

Paging pi to calculate the 'team adjusted +/-' for Samson.

[Randall Flagg]

Plus minus AND a sample size this small is a double no-no

 

Eye test >>>> stats when you're only handling a few games fresh in your memory IMO. Maybe that's unscientific. I haven't yet had to do rigorous statistical analysis yet so I may come back and yell at myself in a couple of years.