Tank 3.0

[nfreeman]

It's all about expectations. He SHOULD be performing better and in our top six... But he isn't. And that's not necessarily fine, but it certainly doesn't warrant a buyout. Especially when I'm sure some team out there would give us something for him.

I don't think any team in the NHL would take him at this point due to his contract.

[Hoss]

I don't think any team in the NHL would take him at this point due to his contract.

3 years, $15M. Not brutal if the Sabres retain some salary there. But even if other teams are uninterested there's still a use for him beyond a buyout. At least this year.

[Thorny]

My 2 cents is that GMTM and everyone else would prefer making the playoffs over missing them.

 

Interesting point on McGinn.  There is a reasonable possibility that the Sabres will be on the bubble (maybe 3-4 points out of the playoffs) as we approach the trade deadline, and McGinn will have played most of the year with ROR and Reino and be on pace for close to 20 goals and a ton of hits.  That's the kind of player that the GM of a playoff team trades, say, a 2nd-round pick for, or even a low first if he gets back, say, McGinn and a #3.  What would GMTM do in that scenario?  Take the trade return and weaken his team down the stretch?  Or keep McGinn and try to make the playoffs?

 

If we are in a position to make a run, in that we are a few points out and playing good hockey, you gotta keep the guy. It would be worth the risk of losing him for nothing to make a run at the playoffs. The benefit of a young team getting in would likely outweigh that of a 2nd round pick. What are the odds a 2nd rounder nets an NHL player? Very unlikely. I take my chances with McGinn and if he keeps playing well, sign him in the off-season.

 

Anaheim is not tanking. They've been successful for years and were WC favorites this year. I still don't think they'll tank, but they'll be bad enough for a top 5 pick

 

Agreed. I don't know about his age being a factor, but he did just turn 30, and has never been in this slump before

 

Actually, Getzlaf had an almost identical points per game in 2011/2012 when he finished with 57 points in 82 games. Was seen as a very off season for him. 20 in 29 right now. Granted, he only has one goal right now, but he has gone through this sort of thing before. He did bounce back.

 

But what if the Sabres are within 2-3 points of a playoff spot, and CJ continues to play well and Lehner is spotty?  The goalie moves you are suggesting would essentially torpedo their shot at the playoffs.  Is that your preferred outcome? 

 

Same as McGinn. Keep CJ if he is playing as well as Lehner. It makes sense to be a seller (which is not tanking) if we are well out of the hunt, but 2-3 points, you keep going at it.

 

But is he really performing poorly?  I think he can do better but he still remains one of the best +/- on the team and he's tied for 6th in scoring behind people you expect him to be behind (well, not McGinn so much).  All the while he's not been playing in the top 6.  I get his contract number, but he's reliable.

 

I don't think he's as bad as people make him out to be and given his ability to be better I think there's less of a chance he's gone next year.

 

Agreed on this. He is underperforming, but hasn't been as bad as people are making out. He has been decent out there. I also really like the guy so I have a bit of a soft spot for him. But I don't think this is my bias showing.

[LTS]

It's all about expectations. He SHOULD be performing better and in our top six... But he isn't. And that's not necessarily fine, but it certainly doesn't warrant a buyout. Especially when I'm sure some team out there would give us something for him.

 

Who does he displace in the top 6?  Gionta?  You could swap the two today and Moulson would be an improvement. He's not going to replace Ennis, O'Reilly, Kane, Eichel, Reinhart.  So you could swap him with McGinn but the chemistry there is perfect right now.  So I don't think he belongs in the top 6.  He's a player that can move up and down the top 3 lines and not harm the team.  His scoring will be down because of it but all the players scoring would be down if they were isolated on a 3rd line with Girgensons (underperforming) and Larsson. 

 

His contract is higher than it should be but it's not because of his talent...  he never would have received this contract from elsewhere.  But it looked really good for the Sabres to have a player WANT to come back to them and especially someone of Moulson's stature in the league.  He got a bit more and he has the potential to be that $5M player but I'm not down on him. 

[dudacek]

His contract is higher than it should be but it's not because of his talent...  he never would have received this contract from elsewhere.  But it looked really good for the Sabres to have a player WANT to come back to them and especially someone of Moulson's stature in the league.  He got a bit more and he has the potential to be that $5M player but I'm not down on him. 

 

I'm not so sure about that. Moulson's contract wasn't significantly out of line with what other UFAs of his age and resume were getting.

I don't recall a great hue and cry of "overpaid" when he signed.

[Hoss]

Who does he displace in the top 6? Gionta? You could swap the two today and Moulson would be an improvement. He's not going to replace Ennis, O'Reilly, Kane, Eichel, Reinhart. So you could swap him with McGinn but the chemistry there is perfect right now. So I don't think he belongs in the top 6. He's a player that can move up and down the top 3 lines and not harm the team. His scoring will be down because of it but all the players scoring would be down if they were isolated on a 3rd line with Girgensons (underperforming) and Larsson.

 

His contract is higher than it should be but it's not because of his talent... he never would have received this contract from elsewhere. But it looked really good for the Sabres to have a player WANT to come back to them and especially someone of Moulson's stature in the league. He got a bit more and he has the potential to be that $5M player but I'm not down on him.

He shouldn't replace anybody in our top six and isn't playing well enough to be in it. That was my point. He SHOULD be in there based on his contract but he isn't.

[LTS]

He shouldn't replace anybody in our top six and isn't playing well enough to be in it. That was my point. He SHOULD be in there based on his contract but he isn't.

 

I understand what you are getting at... but contract value alone does not determine where a player has to be and I don't think it should determine that he's not performing.  I'm not sure they expected Reinhart to be this good at this point and that would be put Moulson back up in the top 6.  It's a good problem to have at the moment as I see it.

[Hoss]

I understand what you are getting at... but contract value alone does not determine where a player has to be and I don't think it should determine that he's not performing. I'm not sure they expected Reinhart to be this good at this point and that would be put Moulson back up in the top 6. It's a good problem to have at the moment as I see it.

He was paid to be a top six player. You can pay a player as much money for a different role, but that's not the case with Moulson. He's not performing for what he was paid to do.

[Huckleberry]

He was paid to be a top six player. You can pay a player as much money for a different role, but that's not the case with Moulson. He's not performing for what he was paid to do.

 

That being said, his contract isn't going to kill us though, by the time his contract expires, Reinhart and Eichel will be done with their RFA status and get the big bucks.

[LTS]

He was paid to be a top six player. You can pay a player as much money for a different role, but that's not the case with Moulson. He's not performing for what he was paid to do.

 

He's not performing or others are performing better?  Again, going into the season there was a solid group (myself included) that expected Reinhart to be in Rochester.  If he is then Moulson is in the top 6.  McGinn is playing out of his mind and that also pushed him down.  After that there is no one Moulson is supposed to replace in the top 6 regardless.

 

The bottom line for me is that he would be in the top 6 and he might actually be scoring more if he were.  But he's buried right now and he's performing that role admirably.

 

One might say right now he's a top 6 forward playing in the 7 role.

[nfreeman]

I understand what you are getting at... but contract value alone does not determine where a player has to be and I don't think it should determine that he's not performing.  I'm not sure they expected Reinhart to be this good at this point and that would be put Moulson back up in the top 6.  It's a good problem to have at the moment as I see it.

He's not performing or others are performing better?  Again, going into the season there was a solid group (myself included) that expected Reinhart to be in Rochester.  If he is then Moulson is in the top 6.  McGinn is playing out of his mind and that also pushed him down.  After that there is no one Moulson is supposed to replace in the top 6 regardless.

 

The bottom line for me is that he would be in the top 6 and he might actually be scoring more if he were.  But he's buried right now and he's performing that role admirably.

 

One might say right now he's a top 6 forward playing in the 7 role.

 

I appreciate your generosity of spirit, but Moulson hasn't fallen out of the top 6 because Reino and McGinn are playing incredibly well -- he's fallen because he's been completely ineffective.

 

"Good problem to have" implies that Moulson would be doing just fine in a top 6 role if there was a slot for him -- but that isn't borne out by his production this season during the many, many shifts he's taken in a top 6 slot.

[Crusader1969]

Not calling for a full out tank and I'm not cheering against the Sabres but picking up one of the top 6 prospects who are available for next years draft may be the best thing long term for this team. 

 

My goal for Sabres remains the same -  pick up 75 points finish 4 or 5th last and maybe get lucky in lottery but dont fall past #6

Edited December 28, 2015 by Crusader1969

[LTS]

I appreciate your generosity of spirit, but Moulson hasn't fallen out of the top 6 because Reino and McGinn are playing incredibly well -- he's fallen because he's been completely ineffective.

 

"Good problem to have" implies that Moulson would be doing just fine in a top 6 role if there was a slot for him -- but that isn't borne out by his production this season during the many, many shifts he's taken in a top 6 slot.

 

He's not had a lot of opportunity or I missed it.  The first part of the season we spoke of everyone learning the system and chemistry and immediately there was clamor for Eichel-Moulson to pair up. It took a long time but Moulson was never really put there once Reinhart pushed his way into the top 6.  Perhaps I am recalling incorrectly though.

 

Perhaps I am not recalling games he was in the top 6 during the Ennis or Kane injury?  I just seem to remember Gionta being in the top 6 more often than we wanted. 

[dudacek]

Moulson got a judicious stint with Gionta and O'Reilly for a week or two late November/early December.

Other than that, he hasn't seen much regular top-six action that I can recall.

[LTS]

Moulson got a judicious stint with Gionta and O'Reilly for a week or two late November/early December.

Other than that, he hasn't seen much regular top-six action that I can recall.

 

By the thoughts of many posters on here then it would seem O'Reilly was demoted since neither Gionta nor Moulson are top 6 material.  But you are correct, that stint did happen.  I wouldn't say it was a fair shot for him.

[SabresBillsFan]

Not calling for a full out tank and I'm not cheering against the Sabres but picking up one of the top 6 prospects who are available for next years draft may be the best thing long term for this team.

 

My goal for Sabres remains the same - pick up 75 points finish 4 or 5th last and maybe get lucky in lottery but dont fall past #6

I feel the same way. I'm torn because they have been competitive in most games they lost but I see if we land a top 5 pick that should and I say should set us up well in the future. This team is lacking prospects in the system and could use another d-man or two plus another solid scorer not named Fasching, Bapiste, or Bailey. To me watching this team play this season it seems like they have trouble with teams with speed. It should be interesting to see how the rest of the season plays out. They put together a 3-5 game win streak and it's right back in a playoff position. And if they lose 3-5 games in a row they could be at the bottom. I see Anaheim moving themselves out of the bottom 5 very shortly. Too much talent on that team not to. Edmonton when McDavid gets back will win a lot more games. Toronto to me has played really well for what they have and have set themselves up nicely for the future with Nylandet and Marner. Columbus I don't believe will finish at the bottom. I see San Jose as possibly being at the bottom as I feel either Mareau or big Joe gets moved. Edited December 30, 2015 by SabresBillsFan

[Crusader1969]

at what point does someone create a reverse standings table again? 

 

January 1st and the Sabres are alone in 28th place. Though they are only 4 points out of 20th.

 

My eyes tell me this is a much improved squad but what do the numbers say?

 

through 38 games played

 

                              15/16        14/15

Points                        34              31

League placing         28th           28th

GF                             88              76

GA                            101             132

Goal differential          -13             -56

 

 

They are much more competitive game to game but their lack of goal scoring has held them back from much improvement in the standings.

Edited January 1, 2016 by Crusader1969

[Claude_Verret]

Meh. I won't actively root for them to shart again and I don't think reverse standings and the board acrimony it fosters is necessary. Let the chips fall where they may. IMO 25th-ish was about all that could be realistically hoped for anyway.

[PASabreFan]

Meh. I won't actively root for them to shart again and I don't think reverse standings and the board acrimony it fosters is necessary. Let the chips fall where they may. IMO 25th-ish was about all that could be realistically hoped for anyway.

That might be fair. But how do you explain being near the bottom in goals scored? Are we all overrating the offensive talent in Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Ennis, Ristolainen, Girgensons etc.?

Edited January 1, 2016 by PASabreFan

[qwksndmonster]

That might be fair. But how do you explain being near the bottom in goals scored? Are we all overrating the offensive talent in Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Ennis, Ristolainen, Girgensons etc.?

Reinhart and Eichel are both rookies and prone to inconsistency so far.  Ennis has been terribad this season, Kane's been average at best, Girgensons is looking to finally be snapping out of his long slump (hopefully), Larsson has been MIA on the score sheet,  and Moulson/Gionta are pretty ineffective.

 

The excuse has been learning the system/gelling, but when so many players under-perform you gotta look at the coach.

[inkman]

That might be fair. But how do you explain being near the bottom in goals scored? Are we all overrating the offensive talent in Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Ennis, Ristolainen, Girgensons etc.?

All those guys minus Girgs and Ennis will finish with good numbers. Maybe it's having 2 other lines that chip in no offense what so ever or the fact that we have 1.5 defenseman capable of even modest offensive numbers.

Edited January 1, 2016 by inkman

[Hoss]

That might be fair. But how do you explain being near the bottom in goals scored? Are we all overrating the offensive talent in Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Ennis, Ristolainen, Girgensons etc.?

O'Reilly is 19th in points. Risto is 81st (11th among dmen). Eichel, as a rookie teenager, is on pace for 25-25-50. Eichel (4th) and Reinhart (8th) are in the top-ten rookie scorers.

I think we have overrated the offensive talent of Ennis and Girgensons, though. Kane's numbers go to 23-15-48 over 82 games. That's not great and certainly not where we want him, but it's not terrible. He needs to be better and more consistent.

The low scoring totals don't worry me because there's still major progress there. There's little to no secondary scoring right now. Larsson, Foligno, Gionta, Deslauriers, Moulson and Legwand have combined for 16 goals so far. That's 2.7 goals per. That's a TOTAL of 34 goals over an 82 game season among six players that make up the top six most nights.

 

I said from the start I was just going to take this season off and only really get into rooting one way or the other if it got down to the last ten or so games and we were close to either end of the standings. I think a backwards standing would be fine with ten games to go if it's really that close. I'm just relaxing, though. I won't get heartbroken by wins late if we're near the bottom... Although I probably will get heartbroken if we're within a few points of the playoffs late and lose a close game or two (although I don't see that happening).

Edited January 1, 2016 by Hoss

[3putt]

All those guys minus Girgs and Ennis will finish with good numbers. Maybe it's having 2 other lines that chip in no offense what so ever or the fact that we have 1.5 defenseman capable of even modest offensive numbers.

This.

[Brawndo]

That might be fair. But how do you explain being near the bottom in goals scored? Are we all overrating the offensive talent in Eichel, Kane, O'Reilly, Reinhart, Ennis, Ristolainen, Girgensons etc.?

Maybe Ennis and Girgensons.

 

ROR and Risto are right about where they should be.

 

Eichel and Reinhart are rookies, and we are seeing peaks and valleys as expected.

 

Kane, I'm not sure what what to make of this season yet

[TrueBlueGED]

O'Reilly is 19th in points. Risto is 81st (11th among dmen). Eichel, as a rookie teenager, is on pace for 25-25-50. Eichel (4th) and Reinhart (8th) are in the top-ten rookie scorers.

I think we have overrated the offensive talent of Ennis and Girgensons, though. Kane's numbers go to 23-15-48 over 82 games. That's not great and certainly not where we want him, but it's not terrible. He needs to be better and more consistent.

The low scoring totals don't worry me because there's still major progress there. There's little to no secondary scoring right now. Larsson, Foligno, Gionta, Deslauriers, Moulson and Legwand have combined for 16 goals so far. That's 2.7 goals per. That's a TOTAL of 34 goals over an 82 game season among six players that make up the top six most nights.

 

I said from the start I was just going to take this season off and only really get into rooting one way or the other if it got down to the last ten or so games and we were close to either end of the standings. I think a backwards standing would be fine with ten games to go if it's really that close. I'm just relaxing, though. I won't get heartbroken by wins late if we're near the bottom... Although I probably will get heartbroken if we're within a few points of the playoffs late and lose a close game or two (although I don't see that happening).

 

I'd like to give Girgensons more time with Eichel and some PP minutes before closing the door on his offensive ability. As for Ennis, I think his career speaks for itself: he's a ~45 point secondary scorer. Did many think he was much more than that? Honestly not remembering here.

Edited January 1, 2016 by TrueBlueGED