Roster review: #26 Matt Moulson

[dudacek]

Next up in our roster review

 

 

#26 Matt Moulson LW (four years left at $5 million per, age 31)

Buffalo 77/13/28/41/-11/4

 

Moulson’s is the type of underdog story that should resonate in Buffalo. A ninth-round draft pick who played four seasons at Cornell and produced good AHL numbers, Moulson was not offered a contract by the Kings after failing to catch on in the NHL during his three-year entry-level deal. They came to regret that decision after he topped the 30-goal mark each of the following three seasons with the Islanders.

 

His relationship with the fan base should have been further cemented when he proactively sought out the Sabres last summer as a free agent. But the tank rolled through and the 13 goals Moulson produced didn’t match the $5 million a year he was making.

 

Neither a banger, a skater, nor a stickhandler, Moulson lacks the flash necessary to grab the eye of the casual fan. But his hockey sense and his willingness to pay the price has made him a valuable complimentary piece to skilled forwards in the past. Despite his troubles last year, Ted Nolan certainly thought highly of him, continuing to feed him ice time, although not necessarily in his preferred role. While his goals were down, he led the team in assists and approached his career high in that category.

 

With four years left on his contract, it will be interesting to see whether his scoring bounces back, given the skill this off-season has injected into the Sabre forward ranks.

 

Links to the rest of the series:

 

Anders Lindback: http://forums.sabres...nders-lindback/

Pat Kaleta: http://forums.sabres...patrick-kaleta/

Johan Larsson: http://forums.sabres...-johan-larsson/

Matt Hackett: http://forums.sabres...1-matt-hackett/

Andrej Meszaros: http://forums.sabres...ndrej-meszaros/

Phil Varone, Zac Dalpe, Jerry D'Amigo: http://forums.sabres...e-dalpe-damigo/

Mikhail Grigorenko: http://forums.sabres...ail-grigorenko/

Tyson Strachan, Andre Benoit: http://forums.sabres...han-and-benoit/

Mark Pysyk: http://forums.sabres...w-3-mark-pysyk/

Tim Schaller: http://forums.sabres...9-tim-schaller/

Matt Ellis: http://forums.sabres...-37-matt-ellis/

Cody Hodgson: http://forums.sabres...9-cody-hodgson/

Tyler Ennis: http://forums.sabres...63-tyler-ennis/

Chad Johnson: http://forums.sabres...3-chad-johnson/

Nick Deslauriers: http://forums.sabres...ck-deslauriers/

Cody McCormick: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23505-roster-review-8-cody-mccormick/

Rasmus Ristolainen: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23511-roster-review-55-rasmus-ristolainen/

Josh Gorges: http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23515-roster-review-4-josh-gorges/

 

Edited July 20, 2015 by dudacek

[darksabre]

I think Matty Mo is on the downside. I expect younger guys to overtake him this year. That said, he still has value during this rebuild.

[MattPie]

I put him down for the 20s, and I see I'm in good company. In 2016-2017, I could see 30 if the team starts really clicking and age doesn't catch up with him.

 

EDIT: Thinking about it though, I bet 30 puts him in the top 30 LW for goals, so that might be a bit high for a 32-33 year old on the second line. A string of a few 15-25 goals seasons is more likely (and completely in line with other "good" teams). I took a look at Chicago and their LWs scored 23, 16, and 14 goals.

Edited July 20, 2015 by MattPie

[JohnnyK]

I think Matt M will be fine he led the team in assists and was third in goals (tied) 

I also think Matt moves down a line or two and this will improve the match-ups he will face and should have someone decent feeding him the puck which he needs as he is a finisher!!!

Just think Matt M, Rienhart,(spelling?), and  Giota as our third line.

Go Sabres!!!

[TrueBlueGED]

I agree with D4rk that he's declined (he's in his thirties after all), but I still think he's got another 1-2 twenty goal seasons in him, especially with a real puck distribution center. He's far from my favorite player, but I expect he'll get fed sheltered opportunities with Eichel and will produce 50 or so points. Good second line production.

[dudacek]

I voted two, but I think he is going to surprise a lot of people by what a great complement and mentor he will be to #15. I think 30 goals is definitely possible. I hope Bylsma can use him the right way.

 

I think he's a helluva a good guy who really struggled mentally with his inability to create offence on a team that really needed it. There were times last year when he was very ineffective and obviously pressing. I also think that he was asked to play a style of play last year that didn't match his strengths. Nolan demanded action and Matt is more a man of reaction and anticipation.

Edited July 21, 2015 by dudacek

[Taro T]

I voted two, but I think he is going to surprise a lot of people by what a great complement and mentor he will be to #15. I think 30 goals is definitely possible. I hope Bylsma can use him the right way.

 

I think he's a helluva a good guy who really struggled with his inability to create offence on a team that really needed it. There were times less year when he was very ineffective and obviously pressing. I also think that he was asked to play a style of play last year that didn't match his strengths. Nolan demand action and Matt is more a man of reaction and anticipation.

Yep. Pretty much he's been a good Brad Boyes. Hoping he gets to play w/ Eichel & Ennis this season. Could be fun to watch.

[thewookie1]

I feel he'll get 25 to 30 this year. Mainly because this time we'll actually have a system for him to play in, and his strengths will be more utilized then.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBDQO2nrEvo

 

Just watch the video, almost every goal is a one timer or a rebound, and those were rare during the season since aside from Ennis, Girgs, and Gionta near the end, we had no one able to sustain the pressure to allow him to sit out in front. Not to mention few could get the pass to him where he could fire it on net.

[TrueBlueGED]

I voted two, but I think he is going to surprise a lot of people by what a great complement and mentor he will be to #15. I think 30 goals is definitely possible. I hope Bylsma can use him the right way.

 

I think he's a helluva a good guy who really struggled with his inability to create offence on a team that really needed it. There were times less year when he was very ineffective and obviously pressing. I also think that he was asked to play a style of play last year that didn't match his strengths. Nolan demand action and Matt is more a man of reaction and anticipation.

 

I think predicting under 30 goals is more of a statement about the league than his abilities. Anyway, I forgot who it was, but somebody observed that he was a bad match for Girgensons because they both went to the same areas, and what Moulson needs is a passer to get him the puck there, not charge the net. I think that was a keen observation, and I'm inclined to agree. In fact, I think his numbers with Larsson (small sample warning) were better across the board.

[dudacek]

I feel he'll get 25 to 30 this year. Mainly because this time we'll actually have a system for him to play in, and his strengths will be more utilized then.

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=NBDQO2nrEvo

 

Just watch the video, almost every goal is a one timer or a rebound, and those were rare during the season since aside from Ennis, Girgs, and Gionta near the end, we had no one able to sustain the pressure to allow him to sit out in front. Not to mention few could get the pass to him where he could fire it on net.

 

Goddamn, Tyler Ennis looked good on a lot of those highlights.

Edited July 21, 2015 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Goddamn, Tyler Ennis looked good on a lot of those highlights.

 

Was just gonna post the same thing after watching the video, then I saw your post. Ennis is a special player. I think he is going to be an extremely valuable guy to have, now that we have more offensive weapons on the team/coming. He won't have to bear as much of the offensive burden.

 

I think a line something like, Kane - Reinhart - Ennis in a couple years would be dynamite.

[Huckleberry]

wanted to say 30 goals, but depends on where he slots on the PP.

[Doohickie]

Goddamn, Tyler Ennis looked good on a lot of those highlights.

 

Other than shootouts, does Matty Mo ever score without Ennis on the ice?

[Lanny]

That was an Ennis highlight reel

[bob_sauve28]

Four years left at $5 a year?? That's horrible. I hope his contract does not become a problem

[inkman]

Four years left at $5 a year?? That's horrible. I hope his contract does not become a problem

Five mill a year is exactly what Moulson type players get on the open market. If it become an issue the last year or two, they can buy him out or move him.

[MattPie]

Five mill a year is exactly what Moulson type players get on the open market. If it become an issue the last year or two, they can buy him out or move him.

 

Yep, that's 2nd/3rd line money, and depending on revenues and expansion, it'll likely be 3rd line money in the last year of the contract.

[Thorny]

Four years left at $5 a year?? That's horrible. I hope his contract does not become a problem

 

 

Five mill a year is exactly what Moulson type players get on the open market. If it become an issue the last year or two, they can buy him out or move him.

 

Ya, I think the critiquing of Matty Moulson has come close to jumping the shark at this point. Yes, his production went down last year, but he was playing on a terrible team. He still led the team in assists, and put up 41 points in 77 games. Far from horrible. He's 31 years old, which while not young, is far from old.

 

He still has some good years left. Watch what playing with a guy like Eichel will do for him.

[mjd1001]

A pretty simple look at what to expect from Matt Moulson this year in terms of goals:

 

-Historically, a 'goal scorer' has one thing that doesn't change too much as they get older, especially if they are still in their early 30's..and that usually is shooting percentage.  Moulsons career shooting percentage is right about 13% (even after last years awful 8.3.  The year before that, even when he split time between the Isles, Sabres, and Minnesota, he was at 13.1.   He had a couple years as high as the mid 16s, and only one other year below 10..and that was 9.7.  So, being conservative, I think a number of 12.5% should be a reasonable goal.

 

-The second part of that is shots.  This is where players lose more as they get older.  Moulson, however, is a player that doesn't rely as much on speed or puck carrying, so logic would dictate his drop-off won't be as severe (kinda like Dave Andreychuk.)  So, how many shots can you expect from him over an 82 game season?  The full season he split between Buf, NYI and Min he averaged 2.35 per game.  His 4 year aveage per game (including last year) is 2.51 per game.  His career average is 2.51.  

 

With better linemates, hopefully a D-core to get the puck out of Sabres end quicker (something he never really even had in NY) and hopefully on the second line not facing the other teams best checking line...I would think it is possible for him to get back to the 2.5 shots per game...but maybe more reasonable to expect 2.2-2.3 per game (he still got over 2 last year).

 

-Lets go with 2.25 shots per game, and 12.5 shooting percentage (I think both are very reasonable for goals for Moulson, and COULD be exceeded if everything goes right).  You are looking at 185 shots over a full season, and 23 goals.   I think that is what SHOULD be expected.

 

-I think it is REASONABLE to expect 200 shots and 13% for shooting percentage, which would put him at 26 goals.

 

If all things fall into place, I think he can still get 30+ goals, but I think a reasonable expectation would be 23-26 goals if he is healthy and on a second line...as a 31-32 year old winger.

 

Any thoughts?

Edited July 25, 2015 by mjd1001

[nobody]

Not to be skunky.

[wjag]

10-18 goals

[dudacek]

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23526-roster-review-26-matt-moulson/

[TrueBlueGED]

http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/23526-roster-review-26-matt-moulson/

Attention .

[deluca67]

10-18 goals

This sounds about right. I would guess Drew Stafford has a better chance of hitting the 30 goal mark agian than Moulson does. I see Moulson as the weakest link in the Sabres top 6 this season. 

[WildCard]

This sounds about right. I would guess Drew Stafford has a better chance of hitting the 30 goal mark agian than Moulson does. I see Moulson as the weakest link in the Sabres top 6 this season. 

I'll take that bet