Roster review: #26 Matt Moulson

[Lanny]

He scored 23 two seasons ago, last year was an aberration with a terrible team/situation. Around 20 should be obtainable.

[MattPie]

A pretty simple look at what to expect from Matt Moulson this year in terms of goals:

 

-Historically, a 'goal scorer' has one thing that doesn't change too much as they get older, especially if they are still in their early 30's..and that usually is shooting percentage.  Moulsons career shooting percentage is right about 13% (even after last years awful 8.3.  The year before that, even when he split time between the Isles, Sabres, and Minnesota, he was at 13.1.   He had a couple years as high as the mid 16s, and only one other year below 10..and that was 9.7.  So, being conservative, I think a number of 12.5% should be a reasonable goal.

 

-The second part of that is shots.  This is where players lose more as they get older.  Moulson, however, is a player that doesn't rely as much on speed or puck carrying, so logic would dictate his drop-off won't be as severe (kinda like Dave Andreychuk.)  So, how many shots can you expect from him over an 82 game season?  The full season he split between Buf, NYI and Min he averaged 2.35 per game.  His 4 year aveage per game (including last year) is 2.51 per game.  His career average is 2.51.  

 

With better linemates, hopefully a D-core to get the puck out of Sabres end quicker (something he never really even had in NY) and hopefully on the second line not facing the other teams best checking line...I would think it is possible for him to get back to the 2.5 shots per game...but maybe more reasonable to expect 2.2-2.3 per game (he still got over 2 last year).

 

-Lets go with 2.25 shots per game, and 12.5 shooting percentage (I think both are very reasonable for goals for Moulson, and COULD be exceeded if everything goes right).  You are looking at 185 shots over a full season, and 23 goals.   I think that is what SHOULD be expected.

 

-I think it is REASONABLE to expect 200 shots and 13% for shooting percentage, which would put him at 26 goals.

 

If all things fall into place, I think he can still get 30+ goals, but I think a reasonable expectation would be 23-26 goals if he is healthy and on a second line...as a 31-32 year old winger.

 

Any thoughts?

 

Good post, and I think your assumptions are pretty reasonable. It'd be fun to come back in April and see how close these numbers turn out.

[qwksndmonster]

I really want to pair Moulson with Eichel.  Who would be the RW for that line?  Ideally, I'd like a power forward to open up space for Moulson.  Girgensons makes the most sense, even though I really want to put Ennis there.  

 

Moulson is at his best when he's lurking in the offensive zone, drifting in and out of the gaps in the defense.  Considering we never had any offensive zone time last year, no wonder his numbers were down.  Now that Eichel is the one surveying the offensive zone looking for the space, Moulson will be back to scoring ~25 goals.

[Thorny]

I really want to pair Moulson with Eichel.  Who would be the RW for that line?  Ideally, I'd like a power forward to open up space for Moulson.  Girgensons makes the most sense, even though I really want to put Ennis there.  

 

Moulson is at his best when he's lurking in the offensive zone, drifting in and out of the gaps in the defense.  Considering we never had any offensive zone time last year, no wonder his numbers were down.  Now that Eichel is the one surveying the offensive zone looking for the space, Moulson will be back to scoring ~25 goals.

 

Agreed with pairing Moulson and Eichel.

 

I feel like the top 2 lines for next season slot themselves:

 

Kane - O'Reilly - Ennis

Moulson - Eichel - Girgensons

[WildCard]

Agreed with pairing Moulson and Eichel.

 

I feel like the top 2 lines for next season slot themselves:

 

Kane - O'Reilly - Ennis

Moulson - Eichel - Girgensons

I still want Reinhart on that top line with good line-mates to help him break in. 

[Thorny]

I still want Reinhart on that top line with good line-mates to help him break in. 

 

I could see Reinhart playing on the right wing of the top line at first, and I'm not opposed to that. But I think I'd prefer him getting more sheltered minutes to start his rookie season, and it would be nice if he could start at center too. For some reason, a McGinn - Reinhart - Gionta third lines seems really good to me, I feel like they would click. If McGinn is healthy he can finish, and he provides a good level of protection for Reinhart, and grit while on that line. Gionta is a nice veteran presence there, maybe he can keep up the level of play he was showing towards the end of last season. Put out a 4th line with Larsson - Legwand - Foligno and we've got ourselves a solid forward group with room to grow.

[dudacek]

Reinhart with Gionta and Foligno on line three WILL BE JUST FINE.

Edited July 28, 2015 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Reinhart with Gionta and Foligno on line three WILL BE JUST FINE.

 

Is just fine better than fine?

[Drunkard]

I could see Reinhart playing on the right wing of the top line at first, and I'm not opposed to that. But I think I'd prefer him getting more sheltered minutes to start his rookie season, and it would be nice if he could start at center too. For some reason, a McGinn - Reinhart - Gionta third lines seems really good to me, I feel like they would click. If McGinn is healthy he can finish, and he provides a good level of protection for Reinhart, and grit while on that line. Gionta is a nice veteran presence there, maybe he can keep up the level of play he was showing towards the end of last season. Put out a 4th line with Larsson - Legwand - Foligno and we've got ourselves a solid forward group with room to grow.

I think putting Reinhart on the 3rd line with McGinn and Gionta is a complete waste of his talent and will lead to a serious lack of production. If you want him to be protected then putting him with guys like Kane and O'Reilly is a much better bet. Sure he'll be playing against better competition that way, but he'll be playing with better players too. Kane can protect him physically and Mr. Intangibles can cover up for his defensive deficiencies while he adjusts to the pro level.

Edited July 28, 2015 by Drunkard

[WildCard]

I think one of the main benefits of putting Reinhart on the top line is that he learns and develops good habits from his line-mates, rather than being broken in with 3rd liners where he may get into some poor habits

[Huckleberry]

I changed my mind, I say he gets 30 goals, we got 3 good centers who can feed him those now.

[dudacek]

I think one of the main benefits of putting Reinhart on the top line is that he learns and develops good habits from his line-mates, rather than being broken in with 3rd liners where he may get into some poor habits

 

I think the whole point of Gionta is to teach him good habits.

Foligno, meanwhile is there to work the corners and make sure no one takes liberties.

[WildCard]

I think the whole point of Gionta is to teach him good habits.

Foligno, meanwhile is there to work the corners and make sure no one takes liberties.

Fair point. I guess my only problem with Gionta is that he is a vet and knows the game, but maybe some younger, better offensive talents can teach him some new tricks. 

[Rasmus_]

20-25 Goals.  That's what I would say is what should be a regular feature.  30 goals would be exceeding my expectations.

[Thorny]

I think the whole point of Gionta is to teach him good habits.

Foligno, meanwhile is there to work the corners and make sure no one takes liberties.

 

This is what I was thinking. He's only going to pick up good habits from Gionta, and as for McGinn I have heard good things about his work ethic and drive. Foligno is as you state.

 

As for the third line being a waste of Sam's talent, I'm not so sure that is the case. If he is playing in his natural position, and his line-mates can find their way to the right areas, I think he could put up respectable numbers as a rookie, as he is adjusting to the NHL. McGinn and Gionta when on their games are capable of being that type of line-mate. Maybe Foligno too. If Reinhart has an exceptional training camp and looks like he is ready to contribute in a big way immediately, then that's when I think you would consider putting him on RW on the top line to start. There is no doubt that Kane and O'Reilly would provide him with a fair amount of protection.

[MattPie]

This is what I was thinking. He's only going to pick up good habits from Gionta, and as for McGinn I have heard good things about his work ethic and drive. Foligno is as you state.

 

As for the third line being a waste of Sam's talent, I'm not so sure that is the case. If he is playing in his natural position, and his line-mates can find their way to the right areas, I think he could put up respectable numbers as a rookie, as he is adjusting to the NHL. McGinn and Gionta when on their games are capable of being that type of line-mate. Maybe Foligno too. If Reinhart has an exceptional training camp and looks like he is ready to contribute in a big way immediately, then that's when I think you would consider putting him on RW on the top line to start. There is no doubt that Kane and O'Reilly would provide him with a fair amount of protection.

 

It's interesting that everyone considers Jack Eichel to be better than Reinhart *today*. I think long term that'll prove to be true, but today there's no reason Reinhart with the extra year of experience shouldn't be #2 (O'Reilly #1) and Eichel starting at #3 or wing to ease into the NHL.

[Thorny]

It's interesting that everyone considers Jack Eichel to be better than Reinhart *today*. I think long term that'll prove to be true, but today there's no reason Reinhart with the extra year of experience shouldn't be #2 (O'Reilly #1) and Eichel starting at #3 or wing to ease into the NHL.

 

Great point. I've thought a lot about that too and it is possible that at least at the beginning of the season, Reinhart performs in a more NHL-ready way than Jack. It certainly looks like this is possible after seeing how much Reinhart had progressed at the Sabres development camp.

 

One extra year of development is a long time for kids that age.

[inkman]

It's interesting that everyone considers Jack Eichel to be better than Reinhart *today*.

I was thinking just the opposite