LaLaLaFontaine Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/hockey/tough-love-robin-lehner http://ottawacitizen.com/sports/hockey/net-gains-for-lehner Great articles. They make me excited about him! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Opposite of lateral move. The further along they are in their development cycle, the more clear their potential becomes. Think of it like Hockey's Future's rankings: 18 year old - 8/10 potential, 50% chance of reaching it 20 year old - 7/10 potential, 60% chance 22 year old - 6/10 potential, 85% chance But when you have a situation where Player A - 18 years old - 9/10 potential 40% chance Player B - 23 years old - 9/10 potential, 75% chance It would be the wiser move to take Player B. That's how I see it. Also will pay off sooner. This is kind of what I was getting at. From my perspective, Lehner's NHL production is able to be predicted at, say, 80% certainty. The prospect we pick at #21 can only be predicted with less than 50% certainty. Even if the ceiling on the #21 prospect is higher, the range of expected outcomes is far wider. That and we need to wait three years for that prospect to even be in the NHL. It's a timeline issue above all else. I agree. I also think alot of angst from the fans comes from the fact that #21 has been tied to any potential ROR deal. Obviously ROR is a bigger name than Lehner and there is a feeling that TM could have gotten more value for 21 (I.E. ROR). But we don't know whats going on behind the scenes. With TM coming out and saying Lehner was his #1 choice then the 21st pick isn't a huge price to pay considering reports are a first round pick alone isn't enough to secure the services of Talbot. With Lehner off the market Talbot's price just went up. TM is ahead of the curve on this one. As another poster indicated if 21 was such an intrigal part of the ROR deal then Murray may have not made the Lehner trade. I'm sure we are still in on ROR. My fear is if the price will be too steep. But then again we are last place team. Some fans fall in love with players or names that may have been good or "up and coming" at one time and haven't produced. We have alot of "mediocre" on the team and to trade some of that way for great isn't a bad thing. In the end it's the best four lines you can put on the ice. Hopefully we have enough talent where big names aren't making it. That and the overlooked value is that Lehner is on a cost controlled contract with RFA status in 2 years. So we control his rights for at least through his next contract. RoR contract means we are paying market rate for his services (in addition to trade price). To have a cup winning team, you need quite a few players on small contracts that greatly out perform what you are paying them. That's the bonus of the Lehner trade if he turns out as good as GMTM thinks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter2003 Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Lehner is only 23, which means he hasn't peaked yet...I think this is going to take a few year to really shake out... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spndnchz Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Miller had a concussion. So there's that... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 (edited) Wow. Look, he essentially "drafted" a 24-year-old, ready-to-play goaltender instead of an unknown 18 year old prospect, and people are going ape####. Edited June 26, 2015 by Eleven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Miller had a concussion. So there's that... soooooo? Miller was average :rolleyes: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Samson's Flow Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow. Look, he essentially "drafted" a 24-year-old, ready-to-play goaltender instead of an unknown 18 year old prospect, and people are going ape####. And he got a 25-goal scorer in the mix, too, albeit an aging and expensive one. That's what i've been trying to get at. My posts were just longer and more confusing. GMTM moved up the development of *insert top goalie drafted in 2015* three years at the cost taking on Legwand's contract. It fits our timeframe for being a competitive team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Wow. Look, he essentially "drafted" a 24-year-old, ready-to-play goaltender instead of an unknown 18 year old prospect, and people are going ape####. And he got a 25-goal scorer in the mix, too, albeit an aging and expensive one. Reaallllyy reaching on that one, eh Eleven? :lol: I am happy that he is young, cheap, an RFA, and a big, nasty goalie. I'm not happy with the price we paid because I wanted to use #21 to move up or trade for another forward, but so be it. I'll have a more firm opinion when I see what Talbot and company go for. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Reaallllyy reaching on that one, eh Eleven? :lol: I am happy that he is young, cheap, an RFA, and a big, nasty goalie. I'm not happy with the price we paid because I wanted to use #21 to move up or trade for another forward, but so be it. I'll have a more firm opinion when I see what Talbot and company go for. Edited to remove something that I obviously mis-heard on the radio. He had 27 points, not goals, last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Edited to remove something that I obviously mis-heard on the radio. He had 27 points, not goals, last year. Ah gotcha. I thought you were referring to his one 27 goal season awhile back Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Another thought.... Everyone is suggesting Brian screwed Tim in this deal. Maybe they made a trade where they each agreed in his value and no one screwed anyone? Given what they both know about the kid - maybe they talked and came up with a reasonable price they both could live with and pulled the trigger. They both know the inside scoop. I don't think Brian was looking to fleece his nephew and hide anything. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Another thought.... Everyone is suggesting Brian screwed Tim in this deal. Maybe they made a trade where they each agreed in his value and no one screwed anyone? Given what they both know about the kid - maybe they talked and came up with a reasonable price they both could live with and pulled the trigger. They both know the inside scoop. I don't think Brian was looking to fleece his nephew and hide anything. I said something similar upthread. I'm sure it has something to do with it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Hopefully the fire cools down a little bit. Lehner was drafted in 2009 when GMTM was AGM in Ottawa and GM in Binghamton. It can't be known if GMTM was the reason he was drafted, but it's possible. Lehner was the 2nd goalie drafted in 2009 at #46 (6'6" Koskinen from Finland at #31 who fled from the Islanders back to Finland after his ELC). Was IS known is that Lehner was brought to the AHL asap to play for Binghamton and became the starter almost immediately before gettin callups to Ottawa. That would likely be the result of GMTM as GM of Bingo. Tim's been watching this kid since before the 2009 draft. If any GMs know him, it's him and Terry Murray. We knew Tim was going to make a move on a goalie soon. I didn't think he would risk next season to the decisions of the free agents or the other GMs trying to sign goalies. I speculate that Tim was given first right of refusal on Lehner by Terry. As Duffer says, almost apologetically, if Lehner is the player Tim thinks he can be, we just got a good deal. He's the right age too- he should develop on a similar timeline as the other kids. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matter2003 Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 (edited) Reaallllyy reaching on that one, eh Eleven? :lol: I am happy that he is young, cheap, an RFA, and a big, nasty goalie. I'm not happy with the price we paid because I wanted to use #21 to move up or trade for another forward, but so be it. I'll have a more firm opinion when I see what Talbot and company go for. But how many forwards can we have at one time? some combination of Ennis, Kane, Moulson, Girgensons, Rheinhart, and Eichel will make up the top 2 lines(with maybe Girgensons moves to a 3rd line center), so that is going to open up 1 spot on the wing, and I'm sure we have no shortage of up and coming prospects to fill that position, or even someone with some untapped potential playing with a highly skilled center such as Foligno or maybe even Larrsson... We have plenty of 3rd and 4th line players, so no worries there... Edited June 26, 2015 by matter2003 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GoPre Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Alright, haven't had a chance to see how things are going. Heard something about San Jose offering their first for Talbot. This true? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PotentPowerPlay22 Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 (edited) Wow. Look, he essentially "drafted" a 24-year-old, ready-to-play goaltender instead of an unknown 18 year old prospect, and people are going ape####. Lehner is arguably no better than Lindback or Neuvirth or Enroth. You could get any one of these goaltenders without giving up anything but salary! This is a bad freaking trade!! Giving up a 1st round choice for an average goaltender is irresponsible and shows bad judgment by Murray. Murray brags about drafting Corey Perry with the 28th pick. The Sabres selected Tyler Ennis 26th. The 21st pick in a deep draft is a valuable pick! Murray blew it! (again) http://www.tsn.ca/sabres-pay-the-price-to-get-lehner-1.318675 "At 6-foot-5, Lehner's frame covers a lot of the net, and when he's on, he looks every bit a future number one goaltender. However, his focus isn't always where it needs to be. Using War-on-Ice's definitions for low-medium-high danger save percentages, Lehner ranked 52nd out of 53 goaltenders that played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes last season when it came to low-danger shots. Those are the ones that he really should stop." Edited June 26, 2015 by PotentPowerPlay22 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Another thought.... Everyone is suggesting Brian screwed Tim in this deal. Maybe they made a trade where they each agreed in his value and no one screwed anyone? Given what they both know about the kid - maybe they talked and came up with a reasonable price they both could live with and pulled the trigger. They both know the inside scoop. I don't think Brian was looking to fleece his nephew and hide anything. It makes sense that Brian knew Tim overvalued Lehner and took advantage of it. I find it extremely hard to believe that there was another team out there willing to give Ottawa anything close to what the Sabres did. Brian took Tim to the woodshed and gave the boy a whooppin on this one. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nfreeman Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 DeLuca: Lehner has 4 dogs. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deluca67 Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 DeLuca: Lehner has 4 dogs. Can any of them play goal? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 It makes sense that Brian knew Tim overvalued Lehner and took advantage of it. I find it extremely hard to believe that there was another team out there willing to give Ottawa anything close to what the Sabres did. Brian took Tim to the woodshed and gave the boy a whooppin on this one. We'll be putting lipstick on this pig for a long, long, time. This is the draft I will judge GMTM by. So far, he has handed out draft picks like a drunken sailor. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robviously Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Lehner is arguably no better than Lindback or Neuvirth or Enroth. You could get any one of these goaltenders without giving up anything but salary! This is a bad freaking trade!! Giving up a 1st round choice for an average goaltender is irresponsible and shows bad judgment by Murray. Murray brags about drafting Corey Perry with the 28th pick. The Sabres selected Tyler Ennis 26th. The 21st pick in a deep draft is a valuable pick! Murray blew it! (again) http://www.tsn.ca/sabres-pay-the-price-to-get-lehner-1.318675 "At 6-foot-5, Lehner's frame covers a lot of the net, and when he's on, he looks every bit a future number one goaltender. However, his focus isn't always where it needs to be. Using War-on-Ice's definitions for low-medium-high danger save percentages, Lehner ranked 52nd out of 53 goaltenders that played at least 1000 5-on-5 minutes last season when it came to low-danger shots. Those are the ones that he really should stop." :sick: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SarasotaSabre Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Hopefully the fire cools down a little bit. Lehner was drafted in 2009 when GMTM was AGM in Ottawa and GM in Binghamton. It can't be known if GMTM was the reason he was drafted, but it's possible. Lehner was the 2nd goalie drafted in 2009 at #46 (6'6" Koskinen from Finland at #31 who fled from the Islanders back to Finland after his ELC). Was IS known is that Lehner was brought to the AHL asap to play for Binghamton and became the starter almost immediately before gettin callups to Ottawa. That would likely be the result of GMTM as GM of Bingo. Tim's been watching this kid since before the 2009 draft. If any GMs know him, it's him and Terry Murray. We knew Tim was going to make a move on a goalie soon. I didn't think he would risk next season to the decisions of the free agents or the other GMs trying to sign goalies. I speculate that Tim was given first right of refusal on Lehner by Terry. As Duffer says, almost apologetically, if Lehner is the player Tim thinks he can be, we just got a good deal. He's the right age too- he should develop on a similar timeline as the other kids. any relation to that arrogant, A-hole IRS Director who would have already been fired three times over in the private sector ?...... :flirt: :flirt: Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pastajoe Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 I like GMTM's quote: "If you would have told me the last day we had the three 1st round picks before the Kane trade that on this day we’re getting Eichel, Kane and Lehner, I would have said you’re on mushrooms,” Murray said. “I would have said, ‘There’s no way that’s going to happen.'" In Tim I trust. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lalalalalaFontaine Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 DeLuca: Lehner has 4 dogs. Hopefully he train them to take a bite or two out of Hodgson It makes sense that Brian knew Tim overvalued Lehner and took advantage of it. I find it extremely hard to believe that there was another team out there willing to give Ottawa anything close to what the Sabres did. Brian took Tim to the woodshed and gave the boy a whooppin on this one. I wonder what Terry thinks about the fact that his brother took Timmy to the cleaners?? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SDS Posted June 26, 2015 Report Share Posted June 26, 2015 Brian took Tim to the woodshed and gave the boy a whooppin on this one. I categorically reject this line of thought. Everyone is throwing around stats and opinions of other people to try and discredit this trade. The presumption is that Tim Murray doesn't know any of this and that his uncle pulled one over on him. That's complete horseshit. Tim knows exactly what he is trading for and he knows exactly the price he paid for it. Tim probably knows this guy better than his own mother. This doesn't mean that it was a good trade but nobody was fooled here. It's just a matter of disagreement on the value between him and the fanbase. If anything, we should be excited to learn what he apparently sees in this guy… Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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