Sabrestrike Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Looks like some of the heavy duty tankers are ready to abandon the tank, or are thinking that it is futile. Most of you would have gladly taken a split with the arch rival Coyotes, at least that is what I remember reading in this thread. The Sabres are exactly where they were before the pivotal 2 game series with the Coyotes, but with fewer games left to be played. When the biggest fancy stat guy (I say that with the utmost respect) around here says that this thing is virtually in the bag I would think that you guys would / should listen to him. I'm not pessimistic or optimistic, just nervous. But I really disagree with the "this is the same Sabres team that has only 50 points all season" argument. They look much better to me than they did last month. Great effort, outshooting opponents, etc. If not for a health dose of bad luck against Colorado and Dallas, we'd be tied with the Yotes right now. I really think the Sabres are better than Arizona, and they have a softer schedule. I'm not giving up by any stretch, but this isn't the same team it was, especially not when taking into account the balance of their schedule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Buffalo vs: TOR 2-3-0 TOR at home 2-0-0 CHI 0-2-0 CHI at home 0-1-0 NYI 1-2-0 NYI at NYI 1-1-0 CAR 1-2-0 CAR at home 1-1-0 CBJ 1-2-0 CBJ at CBJ 1-0-0 PIT 0-3-0 PIT at home 0-1-0 Projects to six-ish points? Doesn't factor post-deadline roster, goaltending. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Reform, the line. This is war. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Same thing for the Coyotes: ARI vs: SJ 1-3-0 SJ at SJ 1-1-0 SJ at ARI 0-2-0 CGY 3-2-0 CGY at CGY 0-2-0 VAN 3-2-0 VAN at VAN 0-2-0 ANA 0-5-0 ANA at ARI 0-2-0 Projects to ARI picking up maybe one point. If the season series with the remaining opponents are any indication, it's gonna be close. Real close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 No, it's not "because Buffalo" for me. It's because I've watched this team all season and know that they're capable of easily winning again Toronto and Carolina. A point in any other game and it's over (I don't see Arizona getting another point from here on out). For all the "voice of reason" stuff out there... Here's why you should be freaking out: - 4 of 6 at home for Buffalo. They've gotten 29 points in 37 home games (.8 PPG - 3 points in 4 games projected) - 3-4-1 with a -12 goal differential (-9 of which is against Pittsburgh) against remaining opponents (5 points projected) I'll put my faith in the larger sample of games with a more representative roster (see: post-deadline games) over the matchups over a smaller sample with better roster, thanks. I also find it amusing you point out how much of the goal differential came against Pittsburgh but conveniently neglect the impact Anton Forsberg had. Since the deadline we've gotten 27% of available points (7 in 14 games) and suddenly were going to get 5 out of 12, or 42% of available points? You can say "yea but Toronto sucks" which is true, but 3/7 post deadline points for us came against Arizona, so yea. It's a slam dunk we blow it with these numbers? Gimme a break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weave Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 I'll put my faith in the larger sample of games with a more representative roster (see: post-deadline games) over the matchups over a smaller sample with better roster, thanks. I also find it amusing you point out how much of the goal differential came against Pittsburgh but conveniently neglect the impact Anton Forsberg had. Since the deadline we've gotten 27% of available points (7 in 14 games) and suddenly were going to get 5 out of 12, or 42% of available points? You can say "yea but Toronto sucks" which is true, but 3/7 post deadline points for us came against Arizona, so yea. It's a slam dunk we blow it with these numbers? Gimme a break. You are sweating a little. You know it. KNOW it. C'mon. Admit it. Read IKP last two posts again. You're nervous. :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Claude_Verret Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 (edited) The shart will be ours. I look at it this way, would I be willing to switch records and schedules with the yotes right now? No F'n way. I'd rather dance with the one who brung ya. Edited March 31, 2015 by Claude_Verret Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Mike Smith, you're our only hope.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LGR4GM Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Mike Smith, you're our only hope.... Do or do not, there is no try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 "I never try anything, I just do it... wanna try me?" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neo Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 Same thing for the Coyotes: ARI vs: SJ 1-3-0 SJ at SJ 1-1-0 SJ at ARI 0-2-0 CGY 3-2-0 CGY at CGY 0-2-0 VAN 3-2-0 VAN at VAN 0-2-0 ANA 0-5-0 ANA at ARI 0-2-0 Projects to ARI picking up maybe one point. If the season series with the remaining opponents are any indication, it's gonna be close. Real close. This (along with your prior post) is exactly how I saw it a few days back, and still do. You have the Yotes at 1 more. This, plus the Detroit win "gives" them 3 or less. I had the Sabres at 6 or more. Both totals exclude the head to head, just completed. We needed two regulation losses to have any margin. I saw some great analyses that took the season's winning percentages, points per game, etc., into account. I don't think each team's season long trajectory overcomes the short term strength of schedule difference. TBPhD pointed out the tie breaker to me. That was good news. If not for that, my money would be on the Yotes. With that, it's pick 'em to me. PS ... I understand the sporstclub stats page has strength of schedule worked in to it. Their 89% is comforting, although my eyeballs don't see where it's coming from. Neo ... B.A. Statistics ... SUNY Buffalo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
woods-racer Posted March 31, 2015 Report Share Posted March 31, 2015 "I never try anything, I just do it... wanna try me?" White Zombie Going "old school" on us...nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 (edited) I don't look at the lottery as chances to get the top pick... But a top two pick. If you look at it this way finishing second can be a little less end of the world than it seems: McEichel odds 1 100% 2 33.5% 3 11.5% 4 9.5% 5 8.5% 6 7.5% 7 6.5% 8 6.0% 9 5.0% 10 3.5% 11 3.0% 12 2.5% 13 2.0% 14 1.0% Note: no changes since nobody played tonight Magic Numbers for games played through 3/30 (12 days left in the regular season) Now featuring the best NHL record Buffalo can finish with while still finishing behind these teams: Edmonton - 4 (4-1-1) Arizona - 9 (2-4-0) Nashville, Montreal, NY Islanders, Anaheim, NY Rangers, Tampa Bay, Detroit, St Louis, Pittsburgh, Chicago, Washington, Minnesota, Vancouver, Calgary, Winnipeg, Los Angeles, Boston, San Jose, Dallas, Ottawa, Florida, Colorado, Philadelphia, New Jersey, Columbus, Carolina, Toronto - Clinched Oilers can clinch April 1st. Sabres can't clinch the Carrion until at least April 4th. Current worst case: 11.5% in lottery - 4th pick Edited April 1, 2015 by Tank Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tondas Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 I'm getting that Bills-Cowboys Monday Night game feeling. Please make it stop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Leafs win second in a row--it's not a given we beat them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Beat Tampa too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Leafs win second in a row--it's not a given we beat them. Beat Tampa too. Very true, and encouraging, but it was at home. 72% of their wins come at home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted April 1, 2015 Author Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Current standings through games played 3/31. Team GP L W OT PT MPP PR RPTC M# CPM Buffalo 76 47 21 8 102 114 12 9 8 19.7 Arizona 77 47 22 8 100 110 10 11 15 13.4 Edmonton 76 40 23 13 93 105 12 18 22 11.7 Toronto 77 42 29 6 90 100 10 -- 9.5 Carolina 75 37 27 11 85 99 14 -- 8.4 Columbus 76 35 37 4 74 86 12 -- 6.1 CPM per sportsclubstats.com and lottery weighting - last updated 3/28 in PM TO looking to get blanked for the 3rd straight game in a potential 1 pointer Wednesday night. Eulers could be eliminated by night's end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Bernier the starter for Leafs tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jsixspd Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah, I've seen that, too... they even have an ad on the boards at Gila River! Very odd. Yeah, I had to watch the Coyotes feed last night - I saw Roby with the Yancey's Fancy advert too! I thought the feed had switched to Buffalo, but no... it was the Coyote feed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah, they've been marketing Yancey's to the Phoenix market for a while now; I think I mentioned on SS a year or two ago when I was randomly watching a late game out of Phoenix. Costco carries Yancey's on a periodic/promotional basis here in TX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Very true, and encouraging, but it was at home. 72% of their wins come at home. Well tomorrow night WILL be a home game for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calti Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 I'm getting that Bills-Cowboys Monday Night game feeling. Please make it stop. don't let mckelvin anywhere near the arena Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IKnowPhysics Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 Yeah, they've been marketing Yancey's to the Phoenix market for a while now; I think I mentioned on SS a year or two ago when I was randomly watching a late game out of Phoenix. Costco carries Yancey's on a periodic/promotional basis here in TX. Gila RIver also has Tim Horton's concession stand inside. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doohickie Posted April 1, 2015 Report Share Posted April 1, 2015 While we're on the subject, did you know there's a Ted's Hot Dogs in the Phoenix area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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