Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

[Hoss]

Screw that. I want each GM sitting there with the specific number of lottery tickets their team has earned. After the drawing, we have to sit and wait while they each skim over each ticket to see if they have won. I want endless camera shots of GMs/presidents crumbling up lottery tickets waiting for someone to find the winner. Of course, with my luck, the winner's ticket would be the very top on on their pile, ruining everything.

This only works if they make a new minimum age for GMs of at least 80 years old.

Edited April 16, 2015 by Hoss

[pi2000]

Are you really getting hung up on the chance that a .02% result occurs over and over infinite times? Let's call that chance .00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 repeating

 

Nobody can argue that chance of infinite re-do's does NOT exist.   It's just highly unlikely.

 

Also I'm still feeling uneasy about this whole lottery thing...

 

- What type of machine do they use?  Gravity Pick or Air Mix?

 

- Are the balls weighed and measured?  When and by whom?   Where are the balls stored after measurement?

 

- Do they have duplicate sets of balls and choose one set at random for the draw?

 

- Is the equipment kept in a locked vault?

 

These simple lottery security procedures, which are standard practice these days to prevent malpractice, ie http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1980_Pennsylvania_Lottery_scandal

[qwksndmonster]

Nobody can argue that chance of infinite re-do's does NOT exist.   It's just highly unlikely.

I can argue that 0% is closer to the odds than any amount of 0s I could possibly put between the . and the 1%

 

Even if I tried for a week straight.

Edited April 16, 2015 by qwksndmonster

[TrueBlueGED]

The last page of this thread has amused me greatly. Thanks to the troll and the trollee :p

[pi2000]

I can argue that 0% is closer to the odds than any amount of 0s I could possibly put between the . and the 1%

 

Even if I tried for a week straight.

 

You win.

 

(I feel like I'm arguing with Mike Ehrmantraut, which usually doesn't end well for the other guy)

[qwksndmonster]

You win.

 

(I feel like I'm arguing with Mike Ehrmantraut, which usually doesn't end well for the other guy)

I promise you Mike Ehrmantraut would have never engaged in this conversation.  

 

And he seems like more of a baseball guy.

[pi2000]

There's a lot more universes where McDavid dies after he gets drafted by the Sabres.  That's what we should be freaking out about.

 

I wish you didn't say that... that's basically means it's gonna happen.

[PotentPowerPlay22]

If the Sabres are content with Eichel and believe he is close to McDavid in talent, what happens if Buffalo the wins the lottery?

 

Would the Sabres consider trading the first pick to Arizona if they called? Stop and consider the possibilities. The Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 and 2017 1st round picks or more.

 

How about the Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 1st round pick and Oliver Ekman-Larsson?

 

If you you would happy with Eichel by himself, wouldn't you be thrilled to get Eichel plus a couple more premium assets? I would consider it myself.

 

The Sabres have done stranger things. Remember the horrible move to match the offer sheet given to Vanek and forfeit four 1st round picks from Edmonton. How did that work out?

[Randall Flagg]

I'd do McDavid for just Eichel and OEL. But no gm is trading either of these picks.

[MattPie]

If the Sabres are content with Eichel and believe he is close to McDavid in talent, what happens if Buffalo the wins the lottery?

 

Would the Sabres consider trading the first pick to Arizona if they called? Stop and consider the possibilities. The Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 and 2017 1st round picks or more.

 

How about the Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 1st round pick and Oliver Ekman-Larsson?

 

If you you would happy with Eichel by himself, wouldn't you be thrilled to get Eichel plus a couple more premium assets? I would consider it myself.

 

The Sabres have done stranger things. Remember the horrible move to match the offer sheet given to Vanek and forfeit four 1st round picks from Edmonton. How did that work out?

 

 

I'd do McDavid for just Eichel and OEL. But no gm is trading either of these picks.

 

yep. I doubt AZ would trade their 2016 1st round (they'll probably be bad again) and 2 years out is enough time that I'm not sure I'd want their 2017 1st (they may be back on the up-swing).

[pi2000]

If the Sabres are content with Eichel and believe he is close to McDavid in talent, what happens if Buffalo the wins the lottery?

 

Would the Sabres consider trading the first pick to Arizona if they called? Stop and consider the possibilities. The Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 and 2017 1st round picks or more.

 

How about the Sabres trade the 1st pick to AZ for the #2 pick(Eichel), 2016 1st round pick and Oliver Ekman-Larsson?

 

If you you would happy with Eichel by himself, wouldn't you be thrilled to get Eichel plus a couple more premium assets? I would consider it myself.

 

The Sabres have done stranger things. Remember the horrible move to match the offer sheet given to Vanek and forfeit four 1st round picks from Edmonton. How did that work out?

 

I like this.

 

However, I don't ARI would give up their 2016 1st (chance to draft hometown boy Auston Matthews).  

 

Also considering GMTM can't stop dreaming about McDavid, I don't think he'd trade out of that spot for anything. 

[3putt]

All draft picks lose value as currency after this year due to the inherent uncertainty of the random draw for the top 4. You cant assign a value with any reasonable certainty to the unknown quantity.

[BagBoy]

All draft picks lose value as currency after this year due to the inherent uncertainty of the random draw for the top 4. You cant assign a value with any reasonable certainty to the unknown quantity.

This is definitely true for upper 1st round picks. I wonder if this was even considered by the League, and if they will have to eventually back track a bit on the random nature of next year's rules.

[Claude_Verret]

[shrader]

This only works if they make a new minimum age for GMs of at least 80 years old.

Round up one old guy for each team. It's a shame Tampa isn't in the lottery because they already have Phil Esposito.

[WildCard]

Good video Claude  :beer:

[carpandean]

Is it too late for an "almost surely you can't be serious" joke?

[BagBoy]

don't call me surely

 

--ba doom dum--

[Thorny]

SO, you're on a game show.  There are three doors, and behind one of them is a prize...

 

I absolutely LOVE this problem. It's one of those ones that takes you a little while to understand but once you do it's pretty cool. I like explaining it to people for the first time, it's so counter-intuitive that it usually takes people quite some time to pick it up. 

 

i guess the difference we're arguing is this... I'm arguing about the probability wrt  one of the the 200 out of 1001 numbers showing up.   Others are arguing about the chances of winning the lottery AGAINST other teams.   The chance of winning against other teams is 20%, but the chance of winning vs THE MACHINE is 19.98%.    So i'm arguing that you need to beat the machine, which all teams need to do, so all teams odds vs the machine are less 0.2%. 

 

Bingo. Except the last bit. Not 0.2, but 0.02.

 

Statistically possible.   I'm not trying to troll you, it's simply a mathematical possibility that nobody ever gets McDavid.    In some parallel universe somewhere, that is what happens, let's hope it's not the one we live in.

 

Probably true, and definitely awesome.

[LGR4GM]

Moving on...

 

Draft Profile #15 Jakub Zboril LHD

"Zboril is also not afraid to be physical in the defensive end of the ice, battling hard in front of the net and in the corners. He is not afraid to block shots. He could use some work on his positioning and reading of the play as this has caused some inconsistency in his defensive game this year, but again is something that he has improved over the course of the season."

[Eleven]

I still think the best way to televise the lottery is to have a board of teams lit up... Release the balls one by one and have the teams go dark if they have no possible combinations left. It might be tough and hard to understand for some, but it leaves the drama in.

 

Except instead of a light board, it's a row of GMs sitting on dunk tanks, right?

[Rasmus_]

Moving on...

 

Draft Profile #15 Jakub Zboril LHD

"Zboril is also not afraid to be physical in the defensive end of the ice, battling hard in front of the net and in the corners. He is not afraid to block shots. He could use some work on his positioning and reading of the play as this has caused some inconsistency in his defensive game this year, but again is something that he has improved over the course of the season."

 

Thanks for sharing,  he looks like the type of guy the team could use!  36 hours from now!

[shrader]

Thanks for sharing,  he looks like the type of guy the team could use!  36 hours from now!

 

But what happens in that parallel universe where the machine constantly spits out the same null results for the rest of mankind?  Do we have a shot at drafting him there?

[Hoss]

Except instead of a light board, it's a row of GMs sitting on dunk tanks, right?

Full of the blood of sacrificed Gary Bettman.

[Derrico]

McDavid, Strome, Hanifin and others will be attending the draft lottery. Eichel couldn't be there for family reasons.

Do you have a link for this.  Because Garth from Hockeybuzz (I know I know) is freaking out as to why Eichel won't be there lol