What can Josh Doan become?

[LGR4GM]

He's been called a throw in, a 4th liner, a grinder, a late bloomer, a good checker, inexperienced, an unknown, good, bad. But what is he? First let us start with the games played, 62. That is barely enough to call it a sample and to put that in perspective, Zach Benson has 146, Jiri Kulich has 63. This is to say, Josh Doan has a bit of a mystery box to him because there isn't multiple seasons to look at. Now let me get this out of the way here, that is a problem and it is a reason why the Peterka trade has major flaws. The Sabres traded a forward with 238 games and his forward replacement has 62games. 

Now that we have acknowledged the experience and sample questions, let's look at what we do have in those 62 games. Really quickly, can this not become another "Adams is stupid" thread? I get it, 62 games and 23yrs old, there's some hope and some projection in there. But every thread is Adams is dumb and idk, can we focus on the player? Just asking. 

Josh Doan last year on Utah HC ranked 2nd in xGF% at 5v5 with a 61.45xgf%. The only player above him was Yamamoto who only had 133 5v5 minutes, compared to Doan's 600mins. Same for HDCF% where Doan has a 63.02hdcf%. Now zone starts can impact this for sure even though hockey is free flowing and there are a ton of on the fly changes (525), it does help to see who is getting helped most. Doan has 102ozone, 154nzone, and 74dzone starts. By far he started in the neutral zone most with a slight lean into the o over the d zone. I don't think that split would over produce his xGF or HDCF. 

The next part is how much offense was Doan creating? xGF% tells us the split between but not what was being created. In order to do that, we need to adjust for TOI especially for a first year player in Doan. xGF/60 puts Doan at 3rd on the Utah HC, behind Yamamoto and Hayton, with 3.08xGF/60. For reference, JJ Peterka was at 2.62xGF/60. Now remember those numbers are certainly influenced by systems and team play. Buffalo was bad at sustaining pressure and instead created most of the offense off of the rush (Peterka was really good at that). The Sabres have 0 player over 2.85xGF/60 (Kulich) and that shows you that the system itself is having an impact. But Doan was creating offense for Utah but it just was not clicking or turning into points.

Which brings us to PDO or "luck" as some call it. PDO measures PDO=(Shots For/Goals For×100)+(Shots Against/Saves×100) and if you are at 100, you are average, below or above is just that, below average or above average. Peterka had a 1.032PDO, the highest on the Sabres. Many look at McLeod and say he was lucky, he was but only 1.020. Doan on the other hand falls at 0.990 which suggest we see positive regression from him. Now this isn't to toss Peterka under the bus, we are looking at 5v5 specifically and Peterka will be making up for lost 5v5 production with PP production on a team that doesn't run the 24th PP in the league (Utah was 10th in pp%). It is more or less looking at Doan's stats and showing a comparable to understand what Analytics might have been talking to Adams about. I say Analytics because like the McLeod trade, the underlying numbers here seem to indicate at least some intent. AGAIN, I am not saying Doan is better than Peterka, I am merely giving you Peterka's Sabres' numbers for some context. 

With all of that said about Doan, his good 61.45xgf%, his fairly even zone starts, his 63.02hdcf%, 3.08xGF/60, and a bit below average PDO, the question is what will Doan actually be. After what is effectively 1 NHL season over two years, he has stats that average to 15.9g and 21.2a per 82gp. That's about a typical 3rd line player. At 23yrs old coming off of 1 season, is there an offensive jump to have? Will he get more TOI in Buffalo? He's going to at minimum slot behind Tuch and Thompson on the right but could still end up with McLeod as his center. In the end, the underlying stats look good but they are based on a 62 game sample on a team that plays far better overall hockey than Buffalo's run and gun style. My conclusion, there's enough here to make me believe that Doan has 20g, 30a potential and could be a legit 2nd line winger in his prime (26-30), but again, Adams is gambling because he already had a legit 2nd line winger in Peterka. Doan plays better defense. Peterka seems to score more goals (especially off the rush). Doan could also end up as a 10g, 15a type of guy which in the grand scheme of things would really require him to play elite defense to help balance this trade. In the end, we will certainly know a lot more about Doan after this season in Buffalo. My prediction? he'll have around 14g, 26a if he locks down a 3rd line role for all 82 games. 

[triumph_communes]

Michael Peca

[CallawaySabres]

The final piece to a Stanley Cup team that has been in the making for the last 14 years!

[DarthEbriate]

6 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Michael Peca

I'd say more of a peak Dixon Ward. Modern: Zucker

His focus determines his reality.

[Doohickie]

5 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

His focus determines his reality.

[DarthEbriate]

Regardless of the player he becomes, there’s a good bet that he’s Tuch’s inexpensive replacement in the top 6 next season. 

[LTS]

I think the Sabres look at analytics like them having the most 5v5 goals in the league and think, it's really not that important as that has not translated to wins.

We all know that as well.

The Peterka trade is not all about replacing offense but improving overall defense so the team can potentially give up a few 5v5 goals for while reducing the goals against (in all situations) by more.

I think Doan is a middle 6 player.  He will almost certainly be a character player in the lineup who leads by example. I haven't followed him recently and certainly some things are attributed to him because of his father.  However, from what I recall at draft, he's got that motor and desire to dig out pucks.  The team is not good at that.

I will remain optimistic that he will be a player that fans really enjoy watching and he's built as a player who can thrive in playoff hockey.  Naturally they have to get there first.

[K-9]

A future captain.

[ponokasabre]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Michael Peca

I think this is his ceiling to be honest. He may not be quite the hitter that Peca was, nobody in the nhl is, but he is a forechecking machine that has some talent. 

 

I really think Doan is going to be one of my favorite players this year, his growth could change this whole team

[Weave]

1 hour ago, triumph_communes said:

Michael Peca

 

1 minute ago, ponokasabre said:

I think this is his ceiling to be honest. He may not be quite the hitter that Peca was, nobody in the nhl is, but he is a forechecking machine that has some talent. 

 

I really think Doan is going to be one of my favorite players this year, his growth could change this whole team

You gotta consider that most players don’t hit their ceilings.  We do this so often.  It’s where the whole “concept of”. SS meme came from.  What’s an 80% of ceiling look like? That’s much more likely.

[dudacek]

14 years of losing while waiting for kids to grow makes it really hard for many to separate player from result.

Thats going to be particularly relevant to Doan, who was acquired for one of the few kids who actually did arrive.

In a vacuum, Doan looks to embody the care, effort and fearlessness Sabrespace has been crying for the team to add.

In reality he’s got 62 games under his belt and is probably going to take two more years before he comes into his own.

I think aesthetically he’s someone we should be able to appreciate on the journey, if too many losses dont get in the way.

Edited 13 hours ago by dudacek

[MattPie]

I player that'll win the cup... on another team after the Sabres trade him and the deadline in 3 years.

[Pimlach]

Middle 6 guy with a strong work ethic and a two way game.  He will play hard and make no excuses, just like his Dad. 

The Sabres Embedded video made him a key part of the trade.  They have high hopes.  

He is an RFA next season.  

 

[That Aud Smell]

28 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

You gotta consider that most players don’t hit their ceilings.  We do this so often.  It’s where the whole “concept of”. SS meme came from.  What’s an 80% of ceiling look like? That’s much more likely.

Sir! Sir!

It came from me. 

[LGR4GM]

45 minutes ago, Weave said:

 

You gotta consider that most players don’t hit their ceilings.  We do this so often.  It’s where the whole “concept of”. SS meme came from.  What’s an 80% of ceiling look like? That’s much more likely.

15g, 25a would be my rough guestimate as to his 80% but we don't have enough data. 

[French Collection]

I see Doan as a 35-40 point middle six winger who is hard to play against, a physical, forechecking pressure kind of guy.

The intangibles are pedigree, leadership and being best friends with Kesselring.

He could put up numbers below a Drew Stafford level while providing Mike Grier grit.

[Flashsabre]

Above all else hopefully he is a big part of the culture change that is desperately needed on this team. 
 

Hopefully Doan becomes that guy that message boards say “our team needs a Doan but where do you find them. Teams don’t trade away those types of players. Leaders who do all the little things, play with grit, go to the net.”

[Weave]

1 minute ago, French Collection said:

I see Doan as a 35-40 point middle six winger who is hard to play against, a physical, forechecking pressure kind of guy.

The intangibles are pedigree, leadership and being best friends with Kesselring.

He could put up numbers below a Drew Stafford level while providing Mike Grier grit.

Grier is a much more reasonable expectation than Peca.

[GASabresIUFAN]

He is another talent downgrade through trade by Adams.

Peterka (23) 238 gp, 67g, 150pts

Kulich (21) 63 gp, 15g, 24 pts

Doan (23) 62 gp, 12g, 28 pts

His upside, if there is one, is that of a 3rd line forward.

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

Grier is a much more reasonable expectation than Peca.

2 more in their prime Griers would go a long way towards making getting into the playoffs a thing that's theirs to lose rather than one they have to steal to get.

[triumph_communes]

27 minutes ago, Weave said:

Grier is a much more reasonable expectation than Peca.

Not sure those kind of stone hands will ever make it in the NHL ever again 

[Weave]

3 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

Not sure those kind of stone hands will ever make it in the NHL ever again 

Jordan Greenway .

[LGR4GM]

30 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is another talent downgrade through trade by Adams.

Peterka (23) 238 gp, 67g, 150pts

Kulich (21) 63 gp, 15g, 24 pts

Doan (23) 62 gp, 12g, 28 pts

His upside, if there is one, is that of a 3rd line forward.

JJ Peterka as a 21yr old rookie: 12g, 20a, 77games, 0.416ppg

Kulich has 0.381ppg, just noting the how close Kulich was to producing at Peterka's level. Kulich is also 3 months younger. Not saying he will produce at Peterka's level but we should compare apples to apples and rookies to rookies. We can have a discussion somewhere else about it being a downgrade and trading away a more finished product. 

Doan has 0.452ppg (but he's 23 so take that into account)

 

[K-9]

40 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

He is another talent downgrade through trade by Adams.

Peterka (23) 238 gp, 67g, 150pts

Kulich (21) 63 gp, 15g, 24 pts

Doan (23) 62 gp, 12g, 28 pts

His upside, if there is one, is that of a 3rd line forward.

His initial impact will be his defensive talent and tenacity. He’s already ahead of both JJ and Kulich in that department. 

[JP51]

About the same height, needs to fill out a bit more... But a Marcus Foligno with a smidge more scoring comes to mind on the top end.