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The Cozens Contract


DarthEbriate
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He's a team guy, but for him, does that team have to be the Sabres? I'm thinking not, and I think his agent will ask for a lot. Not saying he wouldn't be fine with being a Sabre long term, but I could see them playing hard ball much like Nylander did with Toronto. I doubt he gives any kind of discount so they'll probably have to pay him 8ish. 

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11 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

@SabresBillsFan must have been a jolly joker when he suggested the Tuch contract.  There is no possible way that happens and the Sabres would be foolish to start there.  The starting point for the Sabres should be the Tage deal + a bit for an 8th year.

Tuch is making 4.75 million. Yes, Dylan has gotten better but look at the point difference between him and Tuch. Plus you take Tuch off that Skinner and Tage line and I think those two point productions drop off. He is the one going in the corners and doing the dirty work for Tage and Jeff! You don’t want to be in cap hell when you have a lot of prospects and unknowns about how other players have been progressing. I have seen it first hand with some solid contracts handed out here in Vegas and some not good ones. Too me Dylan is a good player but not more than what Tuch is making.

Edited by SabresBillsFan
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11 hours ago, DarthEbriate said:

Under double Tuch's deal by cap hit, sure. 

If GM Sheevyn offers Cozens a 7x$4.75M, then Cozens' agent should immediately counter with a 2-year bridge and a trade demand to a team willing sign an extension 8x $8.5M+. GMs would line up for it. And if the Sabres play hardball, then look to sign an RFA offer sheet ASAP.

Sorry I’m not signing Cozens for 8.5 million until he shows way more then what he’s producing now! Not saying he won’t be worth it someday but if Tage is your highest paid player then others on the team need to be paid lower. Oh I forgot Skinner was the highest paid but I’m not a fan of that contract and if he’s not with Tuch and Thompson his numbers wouldn’t be is high as they are.

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4 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Tuch is making 4.75 million. Yes, Dylan has gotten better but look at the point difference between him and Tuch. Plus you take Tuch off that Skinner and Tage line and I think those two point productions drop off. He is the one going in the corners and doing the dirty work for Tage and Jeff! You don’t want to be in cap hell when you have a lot of prospects and unknowns about how other players have been progressing. I have seen it first hand with some solid contracts handed out here in Vegas and some not good ones. Too me Dylan is a good player but not more than what Tuch is making.

We found Larry Quinn!! Miller’s ceremony brought him to us!!

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4 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Tuch is making 4.75 million. Yes, Dylan has gotten better but look at the point difference between him and Tuch. Plus you take Tuch off that Skinner and Tage line and I think those two point productions drop off. He is the one going in the corners and doing the dirty work for Tage and Jeff! You don’t want to be in cap hell when you have a lot of prospects and unknowns about how other players have been progressing. I have seen it first hand with some solid contracts handed out here in Vegas and some not good ones. Too me Dylan is a good player but not more than what Tuch is making.

I'm sorry but suggesting that Cozens should make what Tuch does because 5 years ago Tuch signed a middle 6 deal is illogical. Tuch signed that deal in October 2018 and was coming off of 37pts in 78 games. He had 52 in 74 the first year after he signed before it kicked in. 

So at best we're talking 52pts in 74 games. Dylan Cozens is on pace for 76pts in 82 games this year. So it's 5 years later, he's going to out produce Tuch, and he plays center. Your post isn't logical. Cozens will and should get more than 4.75 mil a year. 

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4 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Sorry I’m not signing Cozens for 8.5 million until he shows way more then what he’s producing now! Not saying he won’t be worth it someday but if Tage is your highest paid player then others on the team need to be paid lower. Oh I forgot Skinner was the highest paid but I’m not a fan of that contract and if he’s not with Tuch and Thompson his numbers wouldn’t be is high as they are.

And if Thompson isn't with Skinner and Tuch his numbers are lower. If Tuch is with Mitts his numbers are lower. If Dahlin wasn't here his numbers are lower. Skinner being a useful contributor is a good thing regardless of how it came about. Mitts and Olofsson are now useful because we made a waiver claim on Jost.

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5 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Tuch is making 4.75 million. Yes, Dylan has gotten better but look at the point difference between him and Tuch. Plus you take Tuch off that Skinner and Tage line and I think those two point productions drop off. He is the one going in the corners and doing the dirty work for Tage and Jeff! You don’t want to be in cap hell when you have a lot of prospects and unknowns about how other players have been progressing. I have seen it first hand with some solid contracts handed out here in Vegas and some not good ones. Too me Dylan is a good player but not more than what Tuch is making.

I understand what you are saying and the logic except for the fact that for what Tuch brings he is very much underpaid in today's NHL market.  If he was up for a new contract we would be talking 8 x $8 for Tuch too.  Maybe a bit less since he is a winger and not a centre.

The Sabres are not likely to find themselves in cap hell.  Their best players are coming into big paydays just as the cap is most likely going to go up a lot.

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Over the next few years the Sabres will be paying the core big $

Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, and Samuelsson are locked in for at least the next 3 years for 25.179

The next 3 big contracts are Cozens (8 for 8?), Dahlin (8 for 11?) and Power (3 for 6?) to be signed this offseason or next.  After they sign we'll be paying $50 mill plus for 7 players.  That leaves about 32-34 million for everyone else.  

That will include JJP, Quinn, and maybe some or all of VO, Joki, Mitts, UPL, Krebs and Jost. Now add another 7 or 8 players. The money is going to start running out pretty quickly.  These decisions will have to come pretty quickly. 17 current players need new contracts over the next 2 off-seasons

Cap difficulty is coming.  Not next year, but probably in 2024-25 and certainly after that when Quinn and JJP need new deals.

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4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Over the next few years the Sabres will be paying the core big $

Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, and Samuelsson are locked in for at least the next 3 years for 25.179

The next 3 big contracts are Cozens (8 for 8?), Dahlin (8 for 11?) and Power (3 for 6?) to be signed this offseason or next.  After they sign we'll be paying $50 mill plus for 7 players.  That leaves about 32-34 million for everyone else.  

That will include JJP, Quinn, and maybe some or all of VO, Joki, Mitts, UPL, Krebs and Jost. Now add another 7 or 8 players. The money is going to start running out pretty quickly.  These decisions will have to come pretty quickly. 17 current players need new contracts over the next 2 off-seasons

Cap difficulty is coming.  Not next year, but probably in 2024-25 and certainly after that when Quinn and JJP need new deals.

Which, if played properly, can lead to a continuous recycling of young talented players through trading players you can no longer afford.  Obviously drafting takes on a large role but if the recent trend continues, I like their chances. 

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6 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Sorry I’m not signing Cozens for 8.5 million until he shows way more then what he’s producing now! Not saying he won’t be worth it someday but if Tage is your highest paid player then others on the team need to be paid lower. Oh I forgot Skinner was the highest paid but I’m not a fan of that contract and if he’s not with Tuch and Thompson his numbers wouldn’t be is high as they are.

There are players making 8.5 million that I would say Cozens is better than...Filip Forsberg comes to mind. Patrick Laine too.

Edited by matter2003
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9 minutes ago, inkman said:

Which, if played properly, can lead to a continuous recycling of young talented players through trading players you can no longer afford.  Obviously drafting takes on a large role but if the recent trend continues, I like their chances. 

There are certainly guys in the pipeline who we are pretty sure will make the team over the next few years like Levi, Kulich, Rosen and Savoie, but after that it gets a little murky.  There are lots of guys with promise like Östlund, Bloom, Nadeau. Kisakov and even Komorov, but none are a sure thing.

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33 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Over the next few years the Sabres will be paying the core big $

Tuch, Tnt, Skinner, and Samuelsson are locked in for at least the next 3 years for 25.179

The next 3 big contracts are Cozens (8 for 8?), Dahlin (8 for 11?) and Power (3 for 6?) to be signed this offseason or next.  After they sign we'll be paying $50 mill plus for 7 players.  That leaves about 32-34 million for everyone else.  

That will include JJP, Quinn, and maybe some or all of VO, Joki, Mitts, UPL, Krebs and Jost. Now add another 7 or 8 players. The money is going to start running out pretty quickly.  These decisions will have to come pretty quickly. 17 current players need new contracts over the next 2 off-seasons

Cap difficulty is coming.  Not next year, but probably in 2024-25 and certainly after that when Quinn and JJP need new deals.

This is not a recording, cap will be at lest $90 million if not more. Locking up the core early will be helpful. They may still have some issues, which is why they must continue to bring in talent on entry level deals, but they do have some flexibility.

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16 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

There are certainly guys in the pipeline who we are pretty sure will make the team over the next few years like Levi, Kulich, Rosen and Savoie, but after that it gets a little murky.  There are lots of guys with promise like Östlund, Bloom, Nadeau. Kisakov and even Komorov, but none are a sure thing.

Well they haven’t started trading their players that they can’t afford yet so let’s give ‘em some time 

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36 minutes ago, tom webster said:

This is not a recording, cap will be at lest $90 million if not more. Locking up the core early will be helpful. They may still have some issues, which is why they must continue to bring in talent on entry level deals, but they do have some flexibility.

According to whom?  Last projection I saw was for a $1 million increase next season.  
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/latest-nhl-salary-cap-projection-2023-24-bad-news-bruins?amp

 

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20 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

According to whom?  Last projection I saw was for a $1 million increase next season.  
 

https://www.nbcsports.com/boston/bruins/latest-nhl-salary-cap-projection-2023-24-bad-news-bruins?amp

 

I’m talking within 2 or 3 years but most insiders expect next years cap to go up more than the original $1M projection as well. Bettman took heat for overestimating the last two years so he was bring more cautious this year.

Remember, the cap is being artificially kept lower because of advances players got during COVID. 

I’ve talked to people who should know that expect it to approach $95M within three years.

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8 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Tuch is making 4.75 million. Yes, Dylan has gotten better but look at the point difference between him and Tuch. Plus you take Tuch off that Skinner and Tage line and I think those two point productions drop off. He is the one going in the corners and doing the dirty work for Tage and Jeff! You don’t want to be in cap hell when you have a lot of prospects and unknowns about how other players have been progressing. I have seen it first hand with some solid contracts handed out here in Vegas and some not good ones. Too me Dylan is a good player but not more than what Tuch is making.

Tuch would be getting 8 or 9 if he was signing a deal this summer. The fact that he's outplaying his contract shouldn't and won't matter to Cozens agent.

 

8 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

He’s not worth what Hughes is plus Hughes is a better player. 

Agreed and he will get less.

That said, Hughes signed his deal a year and a half ago, coming off seasons of 21 and 31 points. He fnished that year, his 3rd with 56 points in 49 games.

Cozens will be coming off his 2nd and 3rd seasons of 37 and 70-ish points and is the same draft as Hughes.

His agent will definitely be using Hughes as a comparable to start negotiations.

You can find comparables up thread. Forwards with similar age and pedigree and worse production are all signing long-term for at least $7 million.

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When it comes to contracts. Some fans are up to date and current with true value. Some fans look at contracts signed 2, 3, 4+ years ago thinking it’s still a valid comparison. Some fans just have a mental block about paying anyone not at the top of the scoring list, millions of dollars like it’s their money. 😂

At least that’s how I see it.

Fair for both sides at this point with all things considered is 7+ AAV for Cozens on a longer term.

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9 hours ago, SabresBillsFan said:

Sorry I’m not signing Cozens for 8.5 million until he shows way more then what he’s producing now! Not saying he won’t be worth it someday but if Tage is your highest paid player then others on the team need to be paid lower. Oh I forgot Skinner was the highest paid but I’m not a fan of that contract and if he’s not with Tuch and Thompson his numbers wouldn’t be is high as they are.

Cozens has 42 points (4th among Sabres forwards) in 45 games in only 16:49 minutes per game (4th Sabres among forwards). He's carrying two rookies on his line instead of getting proven linemates. He's got a 54.2 CF% (All) and 51.1 CF% (5-on-5 with said rookies) and is winning 49.5% of his faceoffs as a 21 year-old (and improving upon past seasons).

Here's Cozens' competition in the NHL. 2nd line centers (C under 18 min/gm), https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/points/all/center?stats-season=2023&limits=gp-36-90,points-29-130,toi-0-18  and if you sort by points it reads:
Tavares 45 pts
Hintz 44 pts (1C on his team)
Hayes 43 pts (huh? I'm completely shocked on this one)
Cozens 42 pts
Bergeron 37 pts (1C on his team)
Krejci 37 pts
Kadri 36 pts
Beniers 36 pts (1C on his team)

Every one of those other guys also gets PP times (and Cozens only has 14 PP points). What more production do you want from a 2C?
(This is where I'm of the mind that Cozens is the 1C soon and Tager becomes the high-octane and O-zone 2C.)

Edited by DarthEbriate
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18 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

Cozens has 42 points (4th among Sabres forwards) in 45 games in only 16:49 minutes per game (4th Sabres among forwards). He's carrying two rookies on his line instead of getting proven linemates. He's got a 54.2 CF% (All) and 51.1 CF% (5-on-5 with said rookies) and is winning 49.5% of his faceoffs as a 21 year-old (and improving upon past seasons).

Here's Cozens' competition in the NHL. 2nd line centers (C under 18 min/gm), https://www.capfriendly.com/browse/active/2023/points/all/center?stats-season=2023&limits=gp-36-90,points-29-130,toi-0-18  and if you sort by points it reads:
Tavares 45 pts
Hintz 44 pts (1C on his team)
Hayes 43 pts (huh? I'm completely shocked on this one)
Cozens 42 pts
Bergeron 37 pts (1C on his team)
Krejci 37 pts
Kadri 36 pts
Beniers 36 pts (1C on his team)

Every one of those other guys also gets PP times (and Cozens only has 14 PP points). What more production do you want from a 2C?
(This is where I'm of the mind that Cozens is the 1C soon and Tager becomes the high-octane and O-zone 2C.)

If Cozens is a 1C and Tage gets “demoted” to the second line, he will score 200 points a year feasting off of easier matchups/PP time/majority offensive zone starts. 

OK not literally, but this would be best case scenario for the team.  

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