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The Cozens Contract


DarthEbriate
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There is a ton of time before we really need to think about this, but the front office should be thinking about it everyday.

Our imperial officer is growing up fast! Cozens is showing enough (the offense is catching up, the PP work is there, the feistiness and grit, guiding 2 rookies much of the season) for quite the contract. He has the all-around skill set to become a 1A to Tage's 1B. Tage gets the easier matchups, Cozens handles the opposition's top line in playoff series. But how much cash are the Sabres willing to show him? How much cash do you show him?

Cozens is currently 41 pts/44 gms, with PP1 time and 2 rookies on his line. Points per season: 13, 38, 41 (in half a season). Good news from a team perspective, you have to sign him this year (before the cap potentially jumps a bunch, because you'll need that space for Rasmus).

Comparisons to consider:

$8.4.54M cap. 5yr/$42.295M - 83 pts in 82 gms in the season before signing the deal -- Sebastian Aho CAR
$8.350M cap. 8yr/$66.8M - 58 pts in 79 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Tim Stutzle OTT
$8.205M cap. 7yr/$57.5M - 36 pts in 56 gms in season before signing -- Brady Tkachuk OTT
$7.95M cap. 8yr/$63.6M - 55 pts in 65 gms in season before signing -- Josh Norris OTT
$7.875M cap. 8yr/$63M - 41 pts in 56 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Nick Suzuki MTL

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44 minutes ago, DarthEbriate said:

There is a ton of time before we really need to think about this, but the front office should be thinking about it everyday.

Our imperial officer is growing up fast! Cozens is showing enough (the offense is catching up, the PP work is there, the feistiness and grit, guiding 2 rookies much of the season) for quite the contract. He has the all-around skill set to become a 1A to Tage's 1B. Tage gets the easier matchups, Cozens handles the opposition's top line in playoff series. But how much cash are the Sabres willing to show him? How much cash do you show him?

Cozens is currently 41 pts/44 gms, with PP1 time and 2 rookies on his line. Points per season: 13, 38, 41 (in half a season). Good news from a team perspective, you have to sign him this year (before the cap potentially jumps a bunch, because you'll need that space for Rasmus).

Comparisons to consider:

$8.4.54M cap. 5yr/$42.295M - 83 pts in 82 gms in the season before signing the deal -- Sebastian Aho CAR
$8.350M cap. 8yr/$66.8M - 58 pts in 79 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Tim Stutzle OTT
$8.205M cap. 7yr/$57.5M - 36 pts in 56 gms in season before signing -- Brady Tkachuk OTT
$7.95M cap. 8yr/$63.6M - 55 pts in 65 gms in season before signing -- Josh Norris OTT
$7.875M cap. 8yr/$63M - 41 pts in 56 gms in season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Nick Suzuki MTL

There's a few others — Robert thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Matt Boldy, Jack Hughes and tage Thompson — but Dylan's probably going to be coming after a better season than almost any of them when he signs.

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9 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There's a few others — Robert thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Matt Boldy, Jack Hughes and tage Thompson — but Dylan's probably going to be coming after a better season than almost any of them when he signs.

Plus he's closer to the players having repaid the owners for the covid years & the corresponding cap increase.  Hoping he comes in at Skinner's deal.

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2 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

He will gladly sign the Thompson deal.  Team friendly to save a lot for Dahlin and Power.

Somebody ( @Brawndo?) said the rumor is the Sabres offered him the Thompson deal & his agent turned it down.

Edited by Taro T
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2 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Somebody ( @Brawndo?) said the rumor is the Sabres offered him the Thompson deal & his agent turned it down.

No way.  I don't buy it.

The rumour being out there ... sure, why not.  I don't believe it happened.  I don't see him turning down the Thompson deal.

We shall see soon enough, but mark my words.

 

Edited by Sabres Fan in NS
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1 minute ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

No way.  I don't buy it.

The rumour being out there ... sure, why not.  I don't believe it happened.  I don't see him turning down the Thompson deal.

We shall see soon enough, but mark my words.

 

That we shall.

Would love to see him come in @$50/7 but just not expecting it.

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56 minutes ago, dudacek said:

There's a few others — Robert thomas, Jordan Kyrou, Matt Boldy, Jack Hughes and tage Thompson — but Dylan's probably going to be coming after a better season than almost any of them when he signs.

I've tried to keep it mostly to centers (I threw in Tkachuk because of play-style and captain-potential). I thought Thomas and Kyrou but they're both on 2-year bridges already and are a few years older. I added Tage, but he falls into that same (STL-based) bridge bucket. I also left out Elias Pettersson because he was offered a 3-year bridge deal because Benning wanted to pay multiple 4th liners $3M instead of locking up his nearly ppg center.

Some more comparisons to consider (with an extra-fun one!):

$10.0M cap. 8yr/$80M - 57 pts in 61 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Jack Eichel BUF
$8M cap. 8yr/$64M - 31 pts in 56 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on rookie deal) -- Jack Hughes NJ
$7.142 cap 7/$50M - 68 pts in 78 gms in the season before signing (1 year remaining on bridge deal) -- Tage Thompson BUF

Cozens is matching or exceeding the production of all of these players listed except Aho and Eichel and he's going to start getting Selke votes soon as well. And he's doing it with 20 year-old wingers and 2nd line minutes.

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1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Somebody ( @Brawndo?) said the rumor is the Sabres offered him the Thompson deal & his agent turned it down.

People really have no idea what’s coming because of the Tage colossal steal lol. 

Going to say this again for the people in the back: this isn’t advanced analytics where the Tage contract makes all the other contracts around him better. The way the league works isn’t “find a huge underpay and hold everyone’s toes to the fire by that number.”

The benefit of Tage’s deal can be found in Tage’s deal itself: we *can* afford to give Cozens and Dahlin and others what they will command and Tage being on a team friendly deal aids greatly: but it’s *not an exponential benefit*. It does not transform every other deal on the team 

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11 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

The question is how many UFA years they buy.  The more they buy the bigger the $.  

8 x $8.

That's as high as I would go.  The Tage deal would buy only 2 UFA years. I think.  I would want him signed for that extra year.

Edited by Sabres Fan in NS
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3 hours ago, Sabres Fan in NS said:

He will gladly sign the Thompson deal.  Team friendly to save a lot for Dahlin and Power.

Why should he give up money he could earn so that other players on the team can earn even more than him?

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9 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Why should he give up money he could earn so that other players on the team can earn even more than him?

Because he is not a greedy bugger and he understands that some players are better than him and will command more money.  I just think he is a team first guy.  Like Tage.

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What is Cozens’ ceiling?

He may become more valuable than Tage in a few years. He won’t score as many goals but he may become the Sabres 2 way physical force, key faceoff guy and inspirational leader while providing more than a point per game.

This could be a great 1A 1B scenario.

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