What do you expect from: #71 Victor Olofsson?

[JoeSchmoe]

Given his season this year, he'll have to come cheap. Given his past production he has the chance of being good. Unless the teams medical staff says otherwise, this seems like a low risk (cost), with a potential for high reward (could score 30 goals).

[JohnC]

7 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

Of course, you can take those multiple picks and make them better.  It might not always work but maybe take a pick that is in the late 20's in the first round, package that with a 2nd..and move up to the late teens or early 20s. Then take that pick and package it with another mid-first rounder, and move up to the 10th-15th pick.  You have a find a team willing to move, but if you are pretty full of prospects and another team is picking there and wants more quality prospects, then go for it.

If you are going to trade anyone, you get the best thing you can for him, even if that is a pick. Doesn't mean you have to use that pick in the draft. If it has value, it can be moved for a player in the offseason that might not be available now..or moved with other picks to turn them into a better pick. 

If Olofsson regains his scoring and shooting form, he is a valuable asset for this team right now. It's time to consider the present instead of worrying about the horizon. The Sabres have plenty of draft assets for the next couple of years. Subtracting talent that has been developed within our system would in my opinion would be a mistake. Olof the shooter would be a great complement to Krebs on a line. Unless there is an unrealistic offer I say no with a potential trade. 

[JohnC]

15 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

The Sabres have:

Buffalo 2022 1st

Vegas 2022 1st

Florida 2022 1st

Buffalo 2022 2nd and 3rd

-----

Buffalo 2023 1st and 2nd

Philly 2023 2nd

Vegas 2023 2nd

no 3rd round pick in 2023

source: https://www.capfriendly.com/teams/sabres

Thanks for the listing of picks. If Olofsson returns to form he would be more valuable to this team for the present and future than an additional pick. Unless his contract demands is out of line with his talent level I prefer that he is kept.

[Taro T]

55 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I wouldn’t trade Him for anything less than a first. 
 

Find out what His Contract Demands are and if prohibitive sign Him to a One Year Deal and move Him at the TDL in 2023

This.

47 minutes ago, dudacek said:

/end thread

And this.  😉

 

[Brawndo]

The Sabres Top Six is currently 

Skinner-Tage-Tuch

Krebs-Cozens-VO

With Mitts, Quinn and probably Peterka ready to step in this year or next. 
Two, probably all three of those players are better than VO and one will take His Spot most likely.
 

Depending what His Contract Demands are, it’s possible that the Sabres would be paying a Third Line Winger North of 5 Million when in a few short years most of those previously mentioned players will need new deals.

If the Sabres acquired a 4th First Round Pick this Year or a 2nd Next Season, moving one of those picks as part of a package for a Young RHD becomes most realistic. 

[Weave]

Simple answer, keep.

Lets see him made obsolete before deciding to move him.

Better yet, lets ensure we have depth on the wing through line 3 to maximize the likelihood of success of all those 2Cs we’ve managed to collect.

[Curt]

1 hour ago, JohnC said:

I wouldn't trade him for a first. We have three first round picks this year, and I believe two first round picks ??? the next year. In addition, we have multiple second and third round picks for the next couple of years. Assuming that his contract demand is reasonable, and if it appears that he has regained his scoring form, it would make no sense to give up a player that we developed in our system. 

What this team needs are additions and not subtractions to its talent base. There needs to be a commitment to win sooner rather than later. You do it with players on hand rather with future assets. 

Digging into the bolded.

What do you see as a reasonable contract?  What’s the most that you would agree to?

As of now, it does not appear that he has regained his shooting form.  What if he goes the rest of the season without looking like a dangerous shooter?

These are the concerns regarding Olofsson, and you are kind of glossing over them.  If Olofsson is looking like a really good shooter, and also only requires a modest contract, then yes, I’d sign him too.

[woods-racer]

One thing the injury has shown is he is a bit one dimensional. Limit the big slapper and he no longer scores. 

How much is a player worth that is in that situation?

[Zamboni]

14 minutes ago, woods-racer said:

One thing the injury has shown is he is a bit one dimensional. Limit the big slapper and he no longer scores. 

How much is a player worth that is in that situation?

[PromoTheRobot]

Keep. You won't get the value you want anyway.

[GASabresIUFAN]

While I wrote trade, we've had this discussion in another thread.  He'll be 27 next season.  Outside of Skinner, who we are stuck with, the rest of the core forwards are 25 and younger.  Tuch (25) and Thompson (24) are the oldest, with Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Quinn, and JJP ranging from 20-23.  That's already 8 forwards with more on the way in Rosen, the 2 Russians, and probably another top 8 forward draft pick from this coming draft.   

I just don't see VO as having a big roll here beyond the next 2 seasons.  

The argument for keeping him is of course there is no guarantee that all the kids will pan out and if we make a good deal, contract wise now, we can always trade him later.  

Ultimately it depends on the offers we get.  

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

Simple answer, keep.

Lets see him made obsolete before deciding to move him.

Better yet, lets ensure we have depth on the wing through line 3 to maximize the likelihood of success of all those 2Cs we’ve managed to collect.

Yep.  Well stated.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Digging into the bolded.

What do you see as a reasonable contract?  What’s the most that you would agree to?

As of now, it does not appear that he has regained his shooting form.  What if he goes the rest of the season without looking like a dangerous shooter?

These are the concerns regarding Olofsson, and you are kind of glossing over them.  If Olofsson is looking like a really good shooter, and also only requires a modest contract, then yes, I’d sign him too.

Well said.

It seems likely that he has a serious issue in his shoulder that has impaired his shot, which is his best NHL talent, and which will not magically heal this season.  If that's the case, then we're looking at shoulder surgery this summer -- right after he's produced maybe 12 goals and 35 pts and right when he needs a new contract.

I don't think they would, or should, commit, say, $4.5MM x 4 years to VO in that situation.

OTOH, if they give him a 1-year deal and he comes back healthy next fall, he's reasonably likely to put up 30 goals in his UFA contract year, which would make him highly likely to be too expensive to keep.  I'd be pretty disappointed to lose another good player because we didn't give him a long-term deal when we had the chance.

I'd try to give him a 2-year deal at, say, $4MM per year, and if he kills it next year, try to extend him the following summer.  But if he's willing to bet on himself, he probably wouldn't agree to that kind of deal.

It's a tricky one for KA. 

 

3 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I wrote trade, we've had this discussion in another thread.  He'll be 27 next season.  Outside of Skinner, who we are stuck with, the rest of the core forwards are 25 and younger.  Tuch (25) and Thompson (24) are the oldest, with Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Quinn, and JJP ranging from 20-23.  That's already 8 forwards with more on the way in Rosen, the 2 Russians, and probably another top 8 forward draft pick from this coming draft.   

I just don't see VO as having a big roll here beyond the next 2 seasons.  

The argument for keeping him is of course there is no guarantee that all the kids will pan out and if we make a good deal, contract wise now, we can always trade him later.  

Ultimately it depends on the offers we get.  

As noted upthread, the Sabres are far from having too many good players.  We can be pretty comfortable with the top line and reasonably confident in Krebs and Cozens.  But Quinn and Mitts so far haven't produced anything at the NHL level and can't stay healthy, JJP looks great but also hasn't done anything in the NHL and Rosen, the Russians and whoever they draft this year are just rolls of the dice. 

If they think they can get VO healthy, it would be nuts to trade him on the assumption that they have plenty of good young forwards who can take his place.

 

[dudacek]

41 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

While I wrote trade, we've had this discussion in another thread.  He'll be 27 next season.  Outside of Skinner, who we are stuck with, the rest of the core forwards are 25 and younger.  Tuch (25) and Thompson (24) are the oldest, with Mitts, Cozens, Krebs, Quinn, and JJP ranging from 20-23.  That's already 8 forwards with more on the way in Rosen, the 2 Russians, and probably another top 8 forward draft pick from this coming draft.   

I just don't see VO as having a big roll here beyond the next 2 seasons.  

The argument for keeping him is of course there is no guarantee that all the kids will pan out and if we make a good deal, contract wise now, we can always trade him later.  

Ultimately it depends on the offers we get.  

I want to emphasize that Power, Peterka, Quinn, Levi, Johnson, Krebs, Cozens, Dahlin, and Samuelsson will all turn 24 within 2 years of each other, starting about 2 years from now. That is when the Sabres will be fully in their window. Mittelstadt, Thompson, Tuch and UPL will all still be in their primes. Rosen, Poltapov and the 22 and 23 drafts will be knocking on the door.

Any decisions on Olofsson needs to be based on how he is going to fit into the roster and the cap at that time.

Edited February 16, 2022 by dudacek

[msw2112]

While the Sabres have a lot of talent in the pipeline, it often takes several years for young players to develop.  VO is already developed.  He's a proven goal scorer.  Keep him, pay him a reasonable but not outrageous salary (he's restricted, so the team has some control) and let him help the team now (this year and into next).  I think that he's had a down year due to injuries and the lack of current talent on the roster.  When fully healthy and playing with other good players on a regular basis, he's a good NHL player that knows how to put the puck in the net.  He's arguably a 2nd-line talent, but if the team improves and becomes stacked with talented forwards (we can only hope), there's nothing wrong with having a player like that on the 3rd line.  Back when the Sabres were a good team ('06-'07), they had talented guys on the 3rd line that could score.  The 3rd line wasn't just JAGs.

If, down the road, the young guys mature, and VO is pushed down or out of the lineup, trade him then.  Teams always need goal scorers.  

Edited February 16, 2022 by msw2112

[woods-racer]

39 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well said.

It seems likely that he has a serious issue in his shoulder that has impaired his shot, which is his best NHL talent, and which will not magically heal this season.  If that's the case, then we're looking at shoulder surgery this summer -- right after he's produced maybe 12 goals and 35 pts and right when he needs a new contract.

I don't think they would, or should, commit, say, $4.5MM x 4 years to VO in that situation.

OTOH, if they give him a 1-year deal and he comes back healthy next fall, he's reasonably likely to put up 30 goals in his UFA contract year, which would make him highly likely to be too expensive to keep.  I'd be pretty disappointed to lose another good player because we didn't give him a long-term deal when we had the chance.

I'd try to give him a 2-year deal at, say, $4MM per year, and if he kills it next year, try to extend him the following summer.  But if he's willing to bet on himself, he probably wouldn't agree to that kind of deal.

It's a tricky one for KA. 

 

As noted upthread, the Sabres are far from having too many good players.  We can be pretty comfortable with the top line and reasonably confident in Krebs and Cozens.  But Quinn and Mitts so far haven't produced anything at the NHL level and can't stay healthy, JJP looks great but also hasn't done anything in the NHL and Rosen, the Russians and whoever they draft this year are just rolls of the dice. 

If they think they can get VO healthy, it would be nuts to trade him on the assumption that they have plenty of good young forwards who can take his place.

 

If they think they can get VO healthy,

 

That is the multi million dollar question. If he gets healthy I think he really shines because he will  have a lot of talent around him so getting him at 3.5 for 3 would seem like a steal. He's on a 2 year deal now at 3 mill per year. 

edit;

 

The best I can tell from capfriendly he is right in line with his production (based on last year) for his current contract with his pers.

 

Edited February 16, 2022 by woods-racer

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

Digging into the bolded.

What do you see as a reasonable contract?  What’s the most that you would agree to?

As of now, it does not appear that he has regained his shooting form.  What if he goes the rest of the season without looking like a dangerous shooter?

These are the concerns regarding Olofsson, and you are kind of glossing over them.  If Olofsson is looking like a really good shooter, and also only requires a modest contract, then yes, I’d sign him too.

I would say $3.5 to $4.5 per year on a medium length term, three years at most. 

I'm not glossing over what he is capable of as a player. Before he was hurt he was arguably the best shooter on the team. And when he was healthy he was an exceptional scorer on the PP. The organization knows what he is capable of when healthy. What shouldn't be minimized is the injury to his shoulder and how it affected his play. 

The season is slightly over the half way mark. How he plays in the remaining portion of the season will certainly have an influence on the size of his next contract. I just don't think that it is smart to shed a player that was developed in the system on a team that requires more additions. My evaluation on him relates to how he played when healthy. In my opinion it will be a big mistake to make an evaluation of him based on his limited production when he was hurt. 

[Curt]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I want to emphasize that Power, Peterka, Quinn, Levi, Johnson, Krebs, Cozens, Dahlin, and Samuelsson will all turn 24 within 2 years of each other. That is when the Sabres will be fully in their window. Mittelstadt, Thompson, Tuch and UPL will all still be in their primes. Rosen, Poltapov and the 22 and 23 drafts will be knocking on the door.

Any decisions on Olofsson needs to be based on how he is going to fit into the roster and the cap at that time.

For me, I honestly don’t view his future fit as the issue.  If he is productive and his salary is reasonable, he will be movable when/if that becomes necessary.

I think that the dilemma is more immediate.  Ideally you would like to give him a 1 year deal to prove himself after a very disappointing season, but he will be a UFA if you do that, and who knows if he will resign at that point.  If the Sabres and Olofsson can’t agree on his worth, Olofsson has the option to go to arbitration, take a one year deal and then head to UFA.

Do the Sabres feel confident enough that he will rebound to give him a 3-4 year deal?  How much does Olofsson expect to be worth?  Do Sabres agree?  Is there some other team out there willing to pay him that, and willing to pay a good trade price for him?

I just don’t know the answers, but these are the questions that I have in mind.

Edited February 17, 2022 by Curt

[Curt]

35 minutes ago, JohnC said:

I would say $3.5 to $4.5 per year on a medium length term, three years at most. 

I'm not glossing over what he is capable of as a player. Before he was hurt he was arguably the best shooter on the team. And when he was healthy he was an exceptional scorer on the PP. The organization knows what he is capable of when healthy. What shouldn't be minimized is the injury to his shoulder and how it affected his play. 

The season is slightly over the half way mark. How he plays in the remaining portion of the season will certainly have an influence on the size of his next contract. I just don't think that it is smart to shed a player that was developed in the system on a team that requires more additions. My evaluation on him relates to how he played when healthy. In my opinion it will be a big mistake to make an evaluation of him based on his limited production when he was hurt. 

I don’t disagree with you. I don’t think they should get rid of him due to his current injury.  I don’t want to get rid of him.

But his current contractual situation is precarious.  What if he presents the Sabres with two options, (1) he believes that he is a 20+ goal 50+ point scorer and  thus worth $5M+ per season, (2) he wants a 1 year deal at low money so he has the chance to prove his value?  What are the Sabres to do?

[Taro T]

3 minutes ago, Curt said:

I don’t disagree with you. I don’t think they should get rid of him due to his current injury.  I don’t want to get rid of him.

But his current contractual situation is precarious.  What if he presents the Sabres with two options, (1) he believes that he is a 20+ goal 50+ point scorer and  thus worth $5M+ per season, (2) he wants a 1 year deal at low money so he has the chance to prove his value?  What are the Sabres to do?

It's possible we're all worrying about him potentially being intransigent needlessly.  He seems to like it here & it's quite possible he appreciates the fact the Sabres took a chance on him way back when & he'd like to be a part of the solution here.  We all saw how psyched his team was when he scored.  That wasn't just because they were on the verge of a 2 game winning streak.

My expectation is they'll work out a 3 or 4 year deal that works for both sides.  No idea what the $'s will be but wouldn't be surprised if the AAV was in the $4's.

[Zamboni]

Because I personally don’t consider him part of “the core”. He’s moveable. Especially IF he wants more than a 2 yr deal and/or wants more than 3.5 mil.

[Curt]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

It's possible we're all worrying about him potentially being intransigent needlessly.  He seems to like it here & it's quite possible he appreciates the fact the Sabres took a chance on him way back when & he'd like to be a part of the solution here.  We all saw how psyched his team was when he scored.  That wasn't just because they were on the verge of a 2 game winning streak.

My expectation is they'll work out a 3 or 4 year deal that works for both sides.  No idea what the $'s will be but wouldn't be surprised if the AAV was in the $4's.

I agree completely.  That wouldn’t surprise me either, though I might not be as confident as you.  I hope that it happens actually.  It depends on the nature of his injury of course.

I just want people to realize that what Olofsson wants is going to weigh very heavily into his resulting contract.  He has a lot of control in this situation and the Sabres are not going to dictate terms.

[triumph_communes]

2.5 mil max. Likely means trade.  Injury broke him

[inkman]

8 minutes ago, triumph_communes said:

2.5 mil max. Likely means trade.  Injury broke him

Just for perspective, Joel Armia makes $3.4 milll

[Carmel Corn]

IMHO - it would be nice to know if he's been playing 100% healthy or not.  If he's been playing with an injury, then we know we haven't gotten his best and it may be worth keeping him around.  If he's healthy, but just ineffective, then he may have already peaked.