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triumph_communes

Larsson/Girgensons Contracts

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Both UFA at season's end.  Making 1.55/1.6 currently.  Their agents likely tell them to wait to UFA and test the market.

 

Can Botterill sign them now?  Should Boterrill sign them now?  For how much?  For how long?

 

And god forbid, if we had to choose, which one is the right choice?!  Larsson is 27, the typical player's peak age.  Girgensons is 25.

 

What happens with these two is probably what makes/breaks our cap structure for the new few years.  Reinhart will probably get around 7.  Mittelstadt will get a cheap bridge.  Ullmark/Montour need raises.  Okposo's contract is still to be dealt with.  Asplund can come up to take maybe one of their roles, but other than that we don't really have anything in our system to replace these two in the future.  Many teams have gotten into binds by overpaying bottom-6 players too much.  But these two make a duo that really stands out in the league.  Do we fall for the same trap?

Edited by triumph_communes

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They can't re-sign until after January 1st.  If they do stick around, it's never going to be for much more than they have right now, cheap 1-2 year deals.

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The landscape of NHL contracts is changing.  Teams are learning you can't throw 10-20 mill on bottom six guys. Even really good ones like these two. Unless a GM outsmarts himself and throws a 3 year 10 mill contract at one of these guys, we should be fine to re-sign them at 2-2.5 mill each.

Teams are going to be made up of 10 mill guys and 2 mill guys and not much in between. I think the contracts that Bogo and Okposo received are going to dry up throughout the league.  

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2 minutes ago, inkman said:

The landscape of NHL contracts is changing.  Teams are learning you can't throw 10-20 mill on bottom six guys. Even really good ones like these two. Unless a GM outsmarts himself and throws a 3 year 10 mill contract at one of these guys, we should be fine to re-sign them at 2-2.5 mill each.

Teams are going to be made up of 10 mill guys and 2 mill guys and not much in between. I think the contracts that Bogo and Okposo received are going to dry up throughout the league.  

Or more small length deals like MoJo’s.  I don’t think the hockey middle class will completely dry up, but it will get squeezed more and more.  

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14 minutes ago, inkman said:

The landscape of NHL contracts is changing.  Teams are learning you can't throw 10-20 mill on bottom six guys. Even really good ones like these two. Unless a GM outsmarts himself and throws a 3 year 10 mill contract at one of these guys, we should be fine to re-sign them at 2-2.5 mill each.

Teams are going to be made up of 10 mill guys and 2 mill guys and not much in between. I think the contracts that Bogo and Okposo received are going to dry up throughout the league.  

I agree with this. 2.5 x 2 or 2 x 3 maybe?

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My sense is these guys are going to be willing to deal.  They make each other better, and here they are on a team ostensibly on the ascension.  I think a cap-friendly 3 year extension per player is likely.

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The general consensus is that players and the league are looking to shorten contracts overall.  The target being the 5 year mark for the major contracts.  It's expected that in the next CBA the current 7 year (8 year) limit is reduced to 5 year (6 year).  This should change things considerably.

I think a lot of what happens will depend greatly on the Sabres record on Jan 1.  If the team shows signs of faltering then the veterans are likely to look to more established markets.  They'll almost force their way out of town by not signing a contract and becoming parts of trades at the trade deadline.

I don't think Botterill will have reservations about pulling up 2-3 bodies from Rochester this season if he needs to move people at the deadline.  The depth in those roles is established.

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9 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I agree with this. 2.5 x 2 or 2 x 3 maybe?

I asked in the lineup thread if Jbot should re-sign Girgensons and Larsson for 3 years each at 2.25 per season.  This adds stability to our depth and rewards the efforts these two have made embracing and excelling in their grinder/PKer role.  It would also lock up these two through their primes (Z is 25 and Larry 27).  

Others thought no way Jbot locks up depth players for 3 years.  While I understand this argument, I think if you have someone that is working, you keep it.  With KO signed for another three years and his chemistry with Z and Larry, I like the idea of keeping them together.  

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Just now, GASabresIUFAN said:

I asked in the lineup thread if Jbot should re-sign Girgensons and Larsson for 3 years each at 2.25 per season.  This adds stability to our depth and rewards the efforts these two have made embracing and excelling in their grinder/PKer role.  It would also lock up these two through their primes (Z is 25 and Larry 27).  

Others thought no way Jbot locks up depth players for 3 years.  While I understand this argument, I think if you have someone that is working, you keep it.  With KO signed for another three years and his chemistry with Z and Larry, I like the idea of keeping them together.  

I think Okposo and a pick or a player are destined for Seattle.  Not sure how receptive Okposo would be to that but I would think that it might be the hopeful target for Botterill.

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Girgs & Larry are right where they belong salary wise(maybe even a bit high).  They are good bottom 6 guys, but I'd continue to go at them with one or two year contracts as long as possible.   I don't want Botts to start handing out 3 and 4 year deals to bottom 6 forwards who have pretty much peaked(grinders who put up 10-15 points per year).

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4 minutes ago, LTS said:

I think Okposo and a pick or a player are destined for Seattle.  Not sure how receptive Okposo would be to that but I would think that it might be the hopeful target for Botterill.

That is certainly an interesting idea.  If Jbot can pull that off and not have to retain a significant piece of KO’s cap hit that would be a miracle.  I wouldn’t count on it.  I can see Jbot preferring to keep his assets and allow Seattle to take a middle D like McCabe.

Based on the current team the Sabres will deploy the 7-3-1.  The forwards are Eichel, Sam, Skinner, Mittelstadt, Thompson, Olofsson and Asplund.  The D are Dahlin, Joker and either Risto or Montour.  This is where the Risto trade next off-season comes in.  We move Risto for a top 6 forward exempt prospects to refill the pipeline is Asplund and Thompson establish themselves as legit NHL players.  

If Risto is traded for a top 6 forward, then Asplund, McCabe and Miller will be our best available players in expansion.  

If Risto is traded for picks/prospects, then McCabe and Miller will be our best available players.  

Frankly, losing any of these 3 players is almost meaningless to the franchise long-term as guys like Pekar, Davidsson, Samuelsson, Laaksonen and Johnson will be pushing for those jobs anyway and remember we only lose one player.

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44 minutes ago, LTS said:

The general consensus is that players and the league are looking to shorten contracts overall.  The target being the 5 year mark for the major contracts.  It's expected that in the next CBA the current 7 year (8 year) limit is reduced to 5 year (6 year).  This should change things considerably.

Link?  I think the league would like to do this, but not the players.

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42 minutes ago, LTS said:

I think Okposo and a pick or a player are destined for Seattle.  Not sure how receptive Okposo would be to that but I would think that it might be the hopeful target for Botterill.

This will never happen. Vegas didn't make it to the finals by making deals with each team to take their terrible contracts. They're going to take the best player to suit their needs.

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Yeah 1 or 2 year deals only. I don't think its smart to commit multiple years to bottom 6 players hitting 30. Also there's other players in the pipeline that could very well be pushing for ice time. Players that would be cheaper & younger & perhaps offer more upside.

And that Larsson line is playing well now. To a surprise to almost everyone.... 6 games into the season. Perhaps they're overachieving & can't keep it going, who knows? Lets wait to see how that line looks in January or February before we start talking about multiple year contract extensions.

I mean just a few months ago when they were given 1 year deals, lots of fans were upset that they would be playing here again this year. Now 6 games into the season after some success we're talking multi year deals.

Such is the rollercoaster of being a sports fan i guess. But a wise GM i would think takes a patient & cautious approach before throwing the money around.

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I think Girgs sticks around for a few more years if he can stay around the 1.7 million range.  I see them moving on from Larry after this year and handing it over to Asplund.

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My thought is to enjoy them while they are playing well, but then wish them good luck if they do not accept a short-term deal with a modest increase.  I would like to see a 4th line with more speed and scoring, as it seems to me that the league style is emphasizing more offense lately.

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4 hours ago, triumph_communes said:

Both UFA at season's end.  Making 1.55/1.6 currently.  Their agents likely tell them to wait to UFA and test the market.

 

Can Botterill sign them now?  Should Boterrill sign them now?  For how much?  For how long?

 

And god forbid, if we had to choose, which one is the right choice?!  Larsson is 27, the typical player's peak age.  Girgensons is 25.

 

What happens with these two is probably what makes/breaks our cap structure for the new few years.  Reinhart will probably get around 7.  Mittelstadt will get a cheap bridge.  Ullmark/Montour need raises.  Okposo's contract is still to be dealt with.  Asplund can come up to take maybe one of their roles, but other than that we don't really have anything in our system to replace these two in the future.  Many teams have gotten into binds by overpaying bottom-6 players too much.  But these two make a duo that really stands out in the league.  Do we fall for the same trap?

Doubt they end up hot commodities league wide.  Though if the Sabres do surprise and make the playoffs, they'll end up recognized as key contributors to that effort. 

I'd expect them to both get 2 year deals for a smidge under $2/yr but maybe Girgensons get a 3 year offer for around that.

Larsson is tricky to go beyond 2 years as they have Asplund pushing to get his job and Larsson is good at exactly 1 role on the roster. He is an excellent forecheck in and defensive C but cannot play a wing and would provide even less offense than any of the current 9 offensive line skaters in any other role than his current 1.

Girgensons has some additional flexibility to his game and is younger than Larry, so he'd presumably be the 1 to keep if only 1 was kept.  (But if they like having a player custom designed for the single role he is asked to fill, then Larry would get the nod.  But would expect Asplund is penciled in as his replacement a couple years from now.)

6 minutes ago, Carmel Corn said:

My thought is to enjoy them while they are playing well, but then wish them good luck if they do not accept a short-term deal with a modest increase.  I would like to see a 4th line with more speed and scoring, as it seems to me that the league style is emphasizing more offense lately.

As long as the other team doesn't score against them, they can continue contributing their 25 goals per year. 

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6 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Girgs & Larry are right where they belong salary wise(maybe even a bit high).  They are good bottom 6 guys, but I'd continue to go at them with one or two year contracts as long as possible.   I don't want Botts to start handing out 3 and 4 year deals to bottom 6 forwards who have pretty much peaked(grinders who put up 10-15 points per year).

Exactly. 

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7 hours ago, LabattBlue said:

Girgs & Larry are right where they belong salary wise(maybe even a bit high).  They are good bottom 6 guys, but I'd continue to go at them with one or two year contracts as long as possible.   I don't want Botts to start handing out 3 and 4 year deals to bottom 6 forwards who have pretty much peaked(grinders who put up 10-15 points per year).

 

45 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

Exactly. 

Until they walk and your 4th line is Kevin Porter, Vlad Sobotka and Remie Elie. 

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7 hours ago, nfreeman said:

Link?  I think the league would like to do this, but not the players.

Sorry, it was discussion on NHL Radio on Sirius.  I was listening to it the other day while driving 3 hours.

The players very much want this because they're looking to get into that UFA status as early as possible. The league wants it so they can be out of bad contracts quicker.  I think it will happen and I think the UFA age might drop as well.  There was a lot of discussion on that.

I can see the arguments..

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There are players who are easy to replace, and players who are hard to replace. If Larsson or Girgs think they are worth more than one or two year deals, you move on from them. If they think they deserve much more than qualifying offers, you move on from them. Those two are at the very very very bottom of my “I’m concerned about their next contract” list.

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$2.5/3MM each for Larsson and Girgs??!!!!  I think some people might need to take a deep breath.  I would but I just threw up in my mouth thinking about paying a checking line $12MM that has doesn't have skaters good enough to move up and down the lineup. 

It looks like we have a coach that knows how to get the most out of people, so I'm not worried about paying anyone next year not named Samson (likelay $7.5-8.5/8 years) or Montour (idk yet).  Nobody else up for a contract has any leverage;  I don't care what type of year they have in '19-'20.

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2 hours ago, inkman said:

 

Until they walk and your 4th line is Kevin Porter, Vlad Sobotka and Remie Elie. 

There will be 4th liners available for the kind of money they earn now better than that. Grab some guy off Boston or St. Louis or some other deep team with tenacious extras. You just can't pay stars big money and pay for 3rd/4th liners as well. It's simply a reality of the cap era. Ideally, we get good again and then decent veterans will consider signing cheap for that chance to be on a cup winner. That's a luxury good teams get. 

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