Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[rakish]

Didn't even know you could try and text people on here

 

That is some good data to have though. I'm a little confused though; haven't you argued in the past that pure shot totals don't matter, but really it's the quality of those shots that show how a team is doing? But it looks like hear you're saying it's not as concrete for goalies

 

I think I'm being consistent. Bylsma (like Teds) was more worried about the quality of the shot than the quantity. It makes your corsi numbers look bad and your goaltender look good. The Sabres moved from that style to become more interested in shot differential, thus the number of shots against a goaltender go down, but the difficulty tends to go up.

[WildCard]

I think I'm being consistent. Bylsma (like Teds) was more worried about the quality of the shot than the quantity. It makes your corsi numbers look bad and your goaltender look good. The Sabres moved from that style to become more interested in shot differential, thus the number of shots against a goaltender go down, but the difficulty tends to go up.

For sure yeah, I get that. But I'm confused by the Darling statement. How is the .91/60 calculated? I'm reading that as in, Darling was the best goalie in the league on save % from shots from a low scoring area. The Canes don't care where the shots are from, as long as they have more, and now his numbers have regressed significantly because of that; he's facing harder shots

[Jacque Richard]

Craig rivet thinks he is good, he has no help in front of him

[Thorny]

Craig rivet thinks he is good, he has no help in front of him

Dammit.

 

Ok, I think Lehner sucks and he's definitely the main issue.

[pi2000]

He's not the problem right now.    Let's see how he performs when facing 20-25 shots/gm vs 45-50.     There's no way to know right now.

[Gramps]

Neither!  The poll needs another choice.   He is better then mediocre, but has some serious flaws in his game, like breakaways.  Considering that he gets bombarded night after night for the last 2 seasons with nary a complaint, shows up and plays hard, is something to admire.  He is about the only one on this team that does.  Sadly he can't do it alone.  2 goals a game isn't good enough.  

 

I don't think we'll ever know if he is the goalie of the future or if the flaws can be fixed because he won't be here by season's end.  To many team need decent goaltending and he is one of the best available.  With Ullmark looking ready to take over the No.1 job and save the franchise $3mill plus in cap, it only makes sense to move on from Lehner.

 

And short-side goals

[dudacek]

I agree.

I think the big thing for Botterill is: prospect/FA pool, and how much he's willing to tie up in goaltending cap going forward.

 

What kind of contract do we think Lehner is looking at? $6mil/4 years? Do we want to tie a goalie up for that if we think Ullmark is coming up next year?

I don't think so. I think Lehner goes elsewhere and gets a good contract and we go with Ullmark at $750k and ______ at ~$2.5mil.

 

The question is whether or not Botterill becomes convinced Lehner can push past the pack of 20 or so average starters and join the group of a dozen or so good ones.

 

If you don’t think he can, then the moneypuck decision is an easy one: move on to Ullmark at a fraction of the cost. I don’t think he can.

 

But I also don’t expect Ullmark to be an improvement, at least not right away, and I recognize there is a good chance Lehner could emerge elsewhere.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Mick O’Manly

[rakish]

Darling in 2016:

What I have is that he was on the ice for 51 (even strength) goals. Based upon the distance of each shot, he should have given up 73 goals. So he saved the team (using this metric) 22 goals in 24 games worth of even strength play (1447 min)

 

Why this metric doesn't really work is that I believe the Blackhawks are good at not giving up odd man rushes, that a shot from 10 feet being harassed by a defenseman is much safer than a 2-1 with the pass going across, even though it results in a 10 ft shot. So this year in Carolina he sees more odd man rushes, more dangerous shots, even though they don't look more dangerous on the shot-distance map.

[darksabre]

He's not the problem right now. Let's see how he performs when facing 20-25 shots/gm vs 45-50. There's no way to know right now.

This is kinda my thing. It's hard for me to feel like he's going to be the goalie this team needs when it is good and he's seeing less shots.

The question is whether or not Botterill becomes convinced Lehner can push past the pack of 20 or so average starters and join the group of a dozen or so good ones.

 

If you don’t think he can, then the moneypuck decision is an easy one: move on to Ullmark at a fraction of the cost. I don’t think he can.

 

But I also don’t expect Ullmark to be an improvement, at least not right away, and I recognize there is a good chance Lehner could emerge elsewhere.

I don't expect Ullmark to be an improvement either.

 

But I don't see myself caring that much. I need the rest of the team to get better.

[dudacek]

I don’t trust Lehner either, but he seems very capable of being a 2 GAA man when his team plays a predictable structured style.

Objectively, he should do well with a good team.

[darksabre]

I don’t trust Lehner either, but he seems very capable of being a 2 GAA man when his team plays a predictable structured style.

Objectively, he should do well with a good team.

Right, objectively. 

 

Guys like Lindback and Nilsson have had the best statistical seasons of their careers playing for the Sabres the last few years. 

 

I'm just super wary of looking at Lehner's stats on a bad Sabres team and trying to draw any kind of meaning out of it. I think playing on a bad team can create the illusion of a goalie being good. 

[Weave]

I think Lehner is prone to giving up the goal that needs to be saved for the win because the team in front of him is mor prone to giving up more of those opportunities.

 

Having said that, I don’t trust Lehner to pull out the tough win any more than I e xpect Jack to make the winning play.

 

I mean, how weird is it that we have a statstically good goalie who can’t stop a break away to save his life, and we have a #1 center who is statistically really good that can’t bury a break away to save his life? And always seems to be involved in the losing play?

[darksabre]

I think Lehner is prone to giving up the goal that needs to be saved for the win because the team in front of him is mor prone to giving up more of those opportunities.

 

Having said that, I don’t trust Lehner to pull out the tough win any more than I e xpect Jack to make the winning play.

 

I mean, how weird is it that we have a statstically good goalie who can’t stop a break away to save his life, and we have a #1 center who is statistically really good that can’t bury a break away to save his life? And always seems to be involved in the losing play?

It really is...unnerving...isn't it? 

 

Not confidence inspiring. 

[Rasmus_]

I'm ready to give someone else a chance.  While he's credible enough to be average/middle of the pack.  While it makes sense that he could be the goalie this team needs long term, with a retool needed.  It would be more beneficial to trade him off for futures.  So no, I personally do not believe he is the answer long term.

Edited December 11, 2017 by De Listig Ett

[PromoTheRobot]

All I will say is that Lehner, who is far from ideal, is not the reason we suck.

[WildCard]

Are we about to have a conversation that Jack can't come up in the big moments?

[miles]

i am surprised that so many people think he is good enough. it seems to me if the puck is not hit directly at him it goes in. break aways, slap shots, you name it

[MattPie]

i am surprised that so many people think he is good enough. it seems to me if the puck is not hit directly at him it goes in. break aways, slap shots, you name it

I voted "good enough", which isn't necessarily the same as "good". He's adequate on the team that is scoring a bunch of goals. I want the Sabres to be that team. I don't think he's better than average for NHL starters though. I don't think he's a $4M player though, seems like there are better bargains out there for average.

[dudacek]

i am surprised that so many people think he is good enough. it seems to me if the puck is not hit directly at him it goes in. break aways, slap shots, you name it

Come on man, you are describing most goalies in this league.

First thing: Carey Price is the best goalie in the league because he is so positionally good he is constantly forcing the other team to shoot it directly at him.

Second thing: Lehner makes all kinds of difficult saves; did you watch the past two games?

[Drunkard]

Lehner is good but not great. He's worth keeping around for relatively cheap but I don't think I'd shell out big money to keep him long term. Better to trade him near the deadline (if there's a good offer) and go with Ullmark and whomever next year so we can use the cap space elsewhere.

[bob_sauve28]

I keep coming back to mediocre. I want to be wrong, but for every good save he makes, there's one that it seems like he could have had. For instance, the second goal last night in St Louis (the one where the Blue snuck it in between Lehner's left and the post), it looked like he started to try to make a glove save before belatedly sealing off the post. I think if he moves to cover the post immediately that puck doesn't go in. In Chicago, it's the OT goal where Risto shouldn't be screening him, but he should have the bottom of the net covered (I think that one slipped in 5-hole). Maybe those can be coached out, but it's a bunch of little things that make me wonder.

I've been watching other goalies lately and they seem to do a better job looking around, under or through the screens. Lehner just seems to try and look over them and doesn't get down to block the shot as well. 

[nfreeman]

Leaving aside the soft goals in the 3rd/OT issue that Lehner has, I agree with the comment upthread about short-side goals and would just add in particular that these goals arise because he repeatedly commits the simple mental error of coming off the post.

[darksabre]

Leaving aside the soft goals in the 3rd/OT issue that Lehner has, I agree with the comment upthread about short-side goals and would just add in particular that these goals arise because he repeatedly commits the simple mental error of coming off the post.

Lehner is well known among goalie coaches/critics for lazy play when he's down in the reverse VH. Greg Balloch on twitter is a good follow if you're looking for someone who is on the watch. 

[pi2000]

Right, objectively. 

 

Guys like Lindback and Nilsson have had the best statistical seasons of their careers playing for the Sabres the last few years. 

 

I'm just super wary of looking at Lehner's stats on a bad Sabres team and trying to draw any kind of meaning out of it. I think playing on a bad team can create the illusion of a goalie being good. 

 

 

Most goalies play their best when facing a steady barrage of shots.    It's easy to stay focused, engaged and loose.

 

That said, does Lehner have the mental capacity to stay sharp when seeing half the shots he's getting now?   I'm not sure there's any reliable way to make that prediction until he's put in that situation.... and with the current team in front of him, it may be a while before he faces that challenge.

[TrueBlueGED]

Is it OK to say I agree with Mork, GA and Thorny?

 

Except the 35-year-old part. More like 28 or 29.

I think people consistently forget Lehner is still a baby in goalie terms.

There’s what, five starters younger than him?

Here's the thing: has he gotten better at all? I've seen zero development in his game. He remains, to my eye, gloriously average.