Lehner: Mediocre or the Goalie of the Future?

[WildCard]

I don't like Lehner, personally. I don't like his attitude, I think his rebound control is absolute garbage, he's erratic and slow to get across the crease, plays the puck terrible on his stick, and gives up soft goals in big moments 
 
That being said, he has had phenomenal results lately. 
 
So, here's the question. Do you believe in Lehner? Is it him dominating, or is he failing? Soft goals or soft saves? Keep him or trade him?

Edited December 11, 2017 by Jokertecken

[darksabre]

Robin Lehner is that woman you went to high school who is 35 now and who has dated several guys long-term but for some reason has never ended up married. Objectively she looks like a great catch, but there's also something going on there that you can't put your finger on. 

He's a good goalie in a lot of respects.

 

Most nights he's not the reason they lose, but he's also not the reason they win.

 

Statistically he makes the saves you expect him to make, but he almost never makes that one save you need him to make. 

He's that co-worker who dependably shows up every day and does what you tell him, but is never going to go out of his way to work some OT or try to make the company better of his own volition. 

There's nothing inherently wrong with a goalie who just quietly does his thing and makes his saves and gives the team a chance to win every night.

 

But occasionally you need your goalie to come up big. To show they have the capacity to make that one impossible save when the team desperately needs it. Lehner is not that guy.

I have no doubt he will have a long NHL career and will play for several more teams. But he's always going to move on, and no one is ever really going to be able to figure out why, but they wont miss him when he's gone. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

Neither!  The poll needs another choice.   He is better then mediocre, but has some serious flaws in his game, like breakaways.  Considering that he gets bombarded night after night for the last 2 seasons with nary a complaint, shows up and plays hard, is something to admire.  He is about the only one on this team that does.  Sadly he can't do it alone.  2 goals a game isn't good enough.  

 

I don't think we'll ever know if he is the goalie of the future or if the flaws can be fixed because he won't be here by season's end.  To many team need decent goaltending and he is one of the best available.  With Ullmark looking ready to take over the No.1 job and save the franchise $3mill plus in cap, it only makes sense to move on from Lehner.

[MattPie]

I don't like Lehner, personally. I don't like his attitude, I think his rebound control is absolute garbage, he's erratic and slow to get across the crease, plays the puck terrible on his stick, and gives up soft goals in big moments 

 

That being said, he has had phenomenal results lately. 

 

So, here's the question. Do you believe in Lehner? Is it him dominating, or is he failing? Soft goals or soft saves? Keep him or trade him?

 

I keep coming back to mediocre. I want to be wrong, but for every good save he makes, there's one that it seems like he could have had. For instance, the second goal last night in St Louis (the one where the Blue snuck it in between Lehner's left and the post), it looked like he started to try to make a glove save before belatedly sealing off the post. I think if he moves to cover the post immediately that puck doesn't go in. In Chicago, it's the OT goal where Risto shouldn't be screening him, but he should have the bottom of the net covered (I think that one slipped in 5-hole). Maybe those can be coached out, but it's a bunch of little things that make me wonder.

[WildCard]

Robin Lehner is that woman you went to high school who is 35 now and who has dated several guys long-term but for some reason has never ended up married. Objectively she looks like a great catch, but there's also something going on there that you can't put your finger on. 

He's that co-worker who dependably shows up every day and does what you tell him, but is never going to go out of his way to work some OT or try to make the company better of his own volition. 

 

There's nothing inherently wrong with a goalie who just quietly does his thing and makes his saves and gives the team a chance to win every night.

 

But occasionally you need your goalie to come up big. To show they have the capacity to make that one impossible save when the team desperately needs it. Lehner is not that guy.

 

This is fantastic. Well done

[Thorny]

Robin Lehner is that woman you went to high school who is 35 now and who has dated several guys long-term but for some reason has never ended up married. Objectively she looks like a great catch, but there's also something going on there that you can't put your finger on. 

He's a good goalie in a lot of respects.

 

Most nights he's not the reason they lose, but he's also not the reason they win.

 

Statistically he makes the saves you expect him to make, but he almost never makes that one save you need him to make. He's that co-worker who dependably shows up every day and does what you tell him, but is never going to go out of his way to work some OT or try to make the company better of his own volition. 

There's nothing inherently wrong with a goalie who just quietly does his thing and makes his saves and gives the team a chance to win every night.

 

But occasionally you need your goalie to come up big. To show they have the capacity to make that one impossible save when the team desperately needs it. Lehner is not that guy.

I have no doubt he will have a long NHL career and will play for several more teams. But he's always going to move on, and no one is ever really going to be able to figure out why, but they wont miss him when he's gone.

 

I agree with a lot of this.

 

But to the bolded, Lehner has been making game-saving stops of which you speak left and right these last couple games. Big, top notch saves.

[darksabre]

I agree with a lot of this.

 

But to the bolded, Lehner has been making game-saving stops of which you speak left and right these last couple games. Big, top notch saves.

I don't agree. I think he's playing well. But pretty much every goalie in the league is making those saves every night. He's not doing anything that other goalies aren't doing. 

[Thorny]

I don't agree. I think he's playing well. But pretty much every goalie in the league is making those saves every night. He's not doing anything that other goalies aren't doing.

 

Statistically incorrect. His through the roof save percentage numbers the last few games prove otherwise. Unless you think he's somehow facing low quality shots due to our amazing defence, he's making more saves than most lately.

 

And some HUGE saves too. That save on the doorstep after that tic-tac-toe 3 way passing play yesterday from the Blues was a dandy.

[WildCard]

Statistically incorrect. His through the roof save percentage numbers the last few games prove otherwise. Unless you think he's somehow facing low quality shots due to our amazing defence, he's making more saves than most lately.

 

And some HUGE saves too. That save on the doorstep after that tic-tac-toe 3 way passing play yesterday from the Blues was a dandy.

I'm wondering though, and with WAR on Ice I can't know, the quality and location of these saves

[Thorny]

I'm wondering though, and with WAR on Ice I can't know, the quality and location of these saves

Eye test from Chicago and yesterday tells me he made several high quality saves. Even RJ, Ray, and the players have been raving about what he's doing lately.

[darksabre]

Statistically incorrect. His through the roof save percentage numbers the last few games prove otherwise. Unless you think he's somehow facing low quality shots due to our amazing defence, he's making more saves than most lately.

 

And some HUGE saves too. That save on the doorstep after that tic-tac-toe 3 way passing play yesterday from the Blues was a dandy.

I think he's facing low quality shots. Look at how much shooting Chicago was doing. This is like the Ted Nolan years when we were giving up tons of shots and Artus Irbe was making randos look like Hasek. 

 

Lehner is basically fine. I get it. Every objective way of looking at the guy says there's nothing wrong with him.

 

But... we know something is, right? 

Like...I would 100% not fault any coach or GM for buying in to Lehner and giving him some long term deal and thinking "yes, this is the guy". 

[Thorny]

This is a great positional save with tricky traffic in front, after he had already made the original save:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-back-to-back-saves/t-291062154/c-55605403

 

This is a nice point blank, tracking save at a time it was certainly needed: in overtime. This is a big time moment, no?

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-sliding-pad-save/t-291062154/c-55614303

 

Bailing his team out with a lightning quick glove after another brutal turnover:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-glove-save-on-barbashev/t-291062154/c-55606603

 

I think he's facing low quality shots. Look at how much shooting Chicago was doing. This is like the Ted Nolan years when we were giving up tons of shots and Artus Irbe was making randos look like Hasek.

Lehner is basically fine. I get it. Every objective way of looking at the guy says there's nothing wrong with him.

But... we know something is, right? Like...I would 100% not fault any coach or GM for buying in to Lehner and giving him some long term deal and thinking "yes, this is the guy".

 

I'm beginning to think what's wrong with him is that he doesn't get enough goal support. With just an extra goal here or there of support, his sv% numbers lately are going to translate to wins.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Bjorn Borg

[bcsaberks]

Eye test from Chicago and yesterday tells me he made several high quality saves. Even RJ, Ray, and the players have been raving about what he's doing lately.

Panger on the Blues broadcast last night also commented on his stellar play over past few games.

 

For me, he's good enough to win with.  Would be nice to see him steal one but always seems to come up 1 short.  Do also question his crazy and how that fits with this young group of players who have not had NHL success.

[Thorny]

This is the save I'm talking about: https://www.nhl.com/gamecenter/buf-vs-stl/2017/12/10/2017020458#game=2017020458,game_state=final

 

If you go to the 59 second mark of the main highlight video. Huge save on a point blank chance after a tic tac toe passing play, that got the Blues announcers chuckling in admiration.

[darksabre]

This is a great positional save with tricky traffic in front, after he had already made the original save:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-back-to-back-saves/t-291062154/c-55605403

 

This is a nice point blank, tracking save at a time it was certainly needed: in overtime. This is a big time moment, no?

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-sliding-pad-save/t-291062154/c-55614303

 

Bailing his team out with a lightning quick glove after another brutal turnover:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-glove-save-on-barbashev/t-291062154/c-55606603

 

 

I'm beginning to think what's wrong with him is that he doesn't get enough goal support. With just an extra goal here or there of support, his sv% numbers lately are going to translate to wins.

I want to say that I agree with you, but I just don't, and I really can't say why.

 

I think if this team starts scoring more goals he'll end up being worse. I think he looks the best and most useful when he's getting a lot of work. But if you ask him to make that one big save in a higher scoring game where he's not seeing as many shots, that's when he's going to kill you. 

 

I'm being presumptuous about where I think this team is headed, and I think as they get better it's less likely that he's "the guy". 

[Sabel79]

Given the luxury of having a team in front of him that isn’t a tire fire, especially on D (oh, yeah, they also can’t score), he’d be fine. Ryan Miller’s habit of ridiculous softies was very much mitigated by the fact that his team was winning anyway a lot of the time (until the end). Every goalie’s going to ship a few now and then. Lehner’s margin of error is very much zero. That’s never gonna work.

 

I’m not a proponent of spending too much money in goal in the salary-cap era in any event, and somebody will absolutely give him (relatively) silly money given the chance. Ship him out.

[MattPie]

This is a great positional save with tricky traffic in front, after he had already made the original save:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-back-to-back-saves/t-291062154/c-55605403

 

This is a nice point blank, tracking save at a time it was certainly needed: in overtime. This is a big time moment, no?

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-sliding-pad-save/t-291062154/c-55614303

 

Bailing his team out with a lightning quick glove after another brutal turnover:

 

https://www.nhl.com/video/lehners-glove-save-on-barbashev/t-291062154/c-55606603

 

 

I'm beginning to think what's wrong with him is that he doesn't get enough goal support. With just an extra goal here or there of support, his sv% numbers lately are going to translate to wins.

 

Here, at 5:00 or so. Indecision. I think Lehner loses track of the puck a little more than he should. It's not uncommon that he's looking around for the puck with no idea where it went.

[Thorny]

^By no means is he playing a perfect game. I pulled up some big saves because it's being said he doesn't make em at the right times. But I don't think anyone would argue he won't give a few away. That's most goalies. Hes making up for it, currently, with a high percentage of saves overall.

[dudacek]

Is it OK to say I agree with Mork, GA and Thorny?

 

Except the 35-year-old part. More like 28 or 29.

I think people consistently forget Lehner is still a baby in goalie terms.

There’s what, five starters younger than him?

[Thorny]

Is it OK to say I agree with Mork, GA and Thorny?

Except the 35-year-old part. More like 28 or 29.

I think people consistently forget Lehner is still a baby in goalie terms.

There’s what, five starters younger than him?

It's a point that bears thinking about. There's a reasonable, precedent-backed chance this is only the tip of the ice Borg with Lehner, and that he's going to get better. Within this season so far, he seems to be improving.

 

GA may be right that we move on from him and it may even be the best move right now. But I hope Botterill is taking a good long look and weighing Lehner's potential, with hoards of info we don't even have access to.

 

It would be very disappointing to move on too early and watch him become a top goalie.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Bjorn Borg

[darksabre]

It's a point that bears thinking about. There's a reasonable, precedent-backed chance this is only the tip of the ice Borg with Lehner, and that he's going to get better. Within this season so far, he seems to be improving.

 

GA may be right that we move on from him and it may even be the best move right now. But I hope Botterill is taking a good long look and weighing Lehner's potential with info we don't even have access to.

I agree.

 

I think the big thing for Botterill is: prospect/FA pool, and how much he's willing to tie up in goaltending cap going forward. 

 

What kind of contract do we think Lehner is looking at? $6mil/4 years? Do we want to tie a goalie up for that if we think Ullmark is coming up next year? 

 

I don't think so. I think Lehner goes elsewhere and gets a good contract and we go with Ullmark at $750k and ______ at ~$2.5mil.

 

 

[rakish]

I'm wondering though, and with WAR on Ice I can't know, the quality and location of these saves

 

JT, the last time you complained about not finding data, I tried to text you that I uploaded my data so everything is current, but SS told me I couldn't text you. I decided to not take it personally.

 

I can tell you the save percentage based upon the distance of the shot, but even that is highly contextual. Take Scott Darling. Last season, using that stat, he was the best goaltender in hockey, saving the Blackhawks, in even strength  play, .91 goals each 60 min. This year, being traded to a team that takes the opposite approach (tries to outshoot you), Darling saves the team .13 goals each 60 min. Same player, different context, totally different statistical result.

 

My view is that Lehner is having an OK to good season, despite moving from shooting percentage analytic (Bylsma) (.23) to a shot differential analytic (Housley) (.54), his numbers are better (using my method).  The save percentage drop (.920 to .910) is a lot less than I had expected, I had expected Lehner's save percentage numbers to look like Johnson's.

[Thorny]

I agree.

I think the big thing for Botterill is: prospect/FA pool, and how much he's willing to tie up in goaltending cap going forward.

 

What kind of contract do we think Lehner is looking at? $6mil/4 years? Do we want to tie a goalie up for that if we think Ullmark is coming up next year?

I don't think so. I think Lehner goes elsewhere and gets a good contract and we go with Ullmark at $750k and ______ at ~$2.5mil.

 

Agreed. And I don't think Botterill came into the season looking for an excuse to give Lehner a LT deal. It's just my guess but I think Botterill's default position heading in to the season was that Lehner was not going to get an extension, and that he'd have to go out and have a great season to change his mind.

 

Lehner certainly didn't have a great start to the season. I'm sure Botterill has noticed the stellar play from Lehner in the last couple, but I bet he's saying he'd like to see it for the remaining 50 odd games before he accepts that it's deserving of a new contract.

 

I'm good with that.

Edited December 11, 2017 by Bjorn Borg

[Huckleberry]

I agree Lehner is an asset that will be moved seeing the goalies we got in our system.

 

But he his an NHL starter, there are teams having a far worse #1 in goal.

[WildCard]

JT, the last time you complained about not finding data, I tried to text you that I uploaded my data so everything is current, but SS told me I couldn't text you. I decided to not take it personally.

 

I can tell you the save percentage based upon the distance of the shot, but even that is highly contextual. Take Scott Darling. Last season, using that stat, he was the best goaltender in hockey, saving the Blackhawks, in even strength  play, .91 goals each 60 min. This year, being traded to a team that takes the opposite approach (tries to outshoot you), Darling saves the team .13 goals each 60 min. Same player, different context, totally different statistical result.

 

My view is that Lehner is having an OK to good season, despite moving from shooting percentage analytic (Bylsma) (.23) to a shot differential analytic (Housley) (.54), his numbers are better (using my method).  The save percentage drop (.920 to .910) is a lot less than I had expected, I had expected Lehner's save percentage numbers to look like Johnson's.

Didn't even know you could try and text people on here

 

That is some good data to have though. I'm a little confused though; haven't you argued in the past that pure shot totals don't matter, but really it's the quality of those shots that show how a team is doing? But it looks like hear you're saying it's not as concrete for goalies