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2018 NHL draft


Crusader1969

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NHL news rated Brady better than Zadina and Bouchard and Dobson the two best NA defensemen..

 

 

NHL Central Scouting still has a bias to size. 

 

Last season they had Vilardi and Rasmussen 6'6 ranked 4 & 5 respectively, ahead of Makar. Glass, Tippett and Suzuki.  

 

I think that explains Tkachuk at 2 (over Zadina) and Dobson and Bouchard at 4 & 5 over Hughes.

 

 

edit  also may explain Noel 6'6 at 10 when some publications have him as a 2nd rounder.

Edited by Crusader1969
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49.4% for top 3 to be super specific.

1 - 18.5%

2 - 16.5%

3 - 14.4%

4 - 50.6%

No, at 2 we take svechnikov and 3 zadina. Both are high end wingers we desperately need. Svechnikov has 44g in 48 total games this year. Zadina is a bit more 2 way but also is a sniper.

I actually think that these percenta are faulty. They are true, but if we don't get number 1, then the chances for 2 and 3 go up. The percent for not picking number 4 should be lower I think.
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I actually think that these percenta are faulty. They are true, but if we don't get number 1, then the chances for 2 and 3 go up. The percent for not picking number 4 should be lower I think.

I'm not sure the NHL removes the balls of the team that has already been chosen before picking the next team. Or, if they do, it's only the 4 balls of the successful sequence, and 4 balls isn't a lot when relative to thousands

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I actually think that these percenta are faulty. They are true, but if we don't get number 1, then the chances for 2 and 3 go up. The percent for not picking number 4 should be lower I think.

 

He's got it right.

 

http://www.sportingnews.com/nhl/news/nhl-draft-2018-lottery-odds-order-date-time-mock-picks-projections-sabres-canucks-senators/hr6ut2u2p2r518sgz2qe7hr0p

 

http://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

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I actually think that these percenta are faulty. They are true, but if we don't get number 1, then the chances for 2 and 3 go up. The percent for not picking number 4 should be lower I think.

 

What you're picturing here is the probability of specifically winning the lottery for the 2nd overall pick assuming you've already lost the 1st pick.  In that case, it would be greater than the chance they had for the first pick.  But if you look at the chances overall for which pick you wind up with, those numbers were right.  Notice how they add up to 100%.

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I actually think that these percenta are faulty. They are true, but if we don't get number 1, then the chances for 2 and 3 go up. The percent for not picking number 4 should be lower I think.

I'm not sure the NHL removes the balls of the team that has already been chosen before picking the next team. Or, if they do, it's only the 4 balls of the successful sequence, and 4 balls isn't a lot when relative to thousands

What you're picturing here is the probability of specifically winning the lottery for the 2nd overall pick assuming you've already lost the 1st pick.  In that case, it would be greater than the chance they had for the first pick.  But if you look at the chances overall for which pick you wind up with, those numbers were right.  Notice how they add up to 100%.

Yeah I had it pretty close. There are 14 balls, so 14C4 = 1001. If that combination is chosen again, they simply redraw

 

http://nationalpost.com/sports/hockey/nhl/nhl-draft-lottery-five-things-you-might-not-know-about-this-crazy-process

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so if the Sabres don't get #1, we want the 2nd last place team to get it. 

Pretty much. That ensures the highest possible amount of re-draws we could have

 

So 1001 combinations, that means the Sabres get 185 of those (or just about), and the Sens get 135 of those. 

 

1001-135 = 866

 

185/866 = 21.4%, Which would be our odds for choosing 2nd overall at that point.

 

Though Eleven's link is telling me otherwise, so I'm probably missing something here

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