2017-18 lineup prediction (the Original Lineup Thread)

[Samson's Flow]

Toronto has the league assisting them we do not have such advantages

Sorry, I ran out of tin foil halfway through this season.

[Doohickie]

I agree. Typed Franson in to illustrate the type of quality we'd likely be slotting in, if they fail to get an upgrade over Bogo.

 

Mike Weber's available....

[jsb]

Mike Weber's available....

[Doohickie]

No realli.  Hee iz.

[dudacek]

Thought it might be interesting to look at the depth chart the new GM will be inheriting.

Only listed the guys under contract, or reasonably likely^ to be — no UFAs.

Put the guys in their most natural position, although several* play multiple positions.

 

CENTRE

Eichel

O'Reilly*

Reinhart*

Larsson*^

Girgensons*^

Cornel*

Malone

 

RIGHT WING

Okposo

Rodrigues*^

Bailey*

Baptiste

Fasching

Nylander*

 

LEFT WING

Kane

Foligno^

Ennis*

Moulson

Carrier

Deslauriers

Smith

Dupuy*^

Karabacek

 

RIGHT DEFENCE

Ristolainen

Bogosian

Antipin*^

Nelson

 

LEFT DEFENCE

McCabe

Gorges

Falk

Guhle

Austin^

Stephens

Martin

 

GOALIE

Lehner^

Ullmark^

Kasdorf

 

We will lose one of the above to Vegas.

There's a chance Austin and Dupuy won't be tendered. I'm betting Justin Kea won't be.

Assuming the rest are signed, we have room to add 15 contracts.

 

We will have about $23 million in cap space, plus the contract we lose to the Knights.

With that we have to give raises to Foligno, Larsson, Girgensons, Lehner, Ullmark and Rodrigues.

The latter two are low-wage replacement players. The first three shouldn't get much more than their qualifiers. Lehner's will be interesting.

 

We also have Estephan and Possler who must be tendered by June 1, and a handful of others (most notably Petersen) who could be.

 

After the RFAs and expansion shakes out, the new guy will likely have between $10 and 15 million in cap space to add, keeping in mind big raises loom for Jack and Sam, while Kane, Gorges, Deslauriers and Falk go to UFA next summer.

Edited April 29, 2017 by dudacek

[dudacek]

I think we have 12 legitimate NHLers:

Eichel, ROR, Reinhart, Larsson, Girgensons, Okposo, Kane, Foligno, Ristolainen, McCabe, Bogosian and Lehner.

I think we've seen enough from Ullmark, Carrier, and Falk to pencil them in as at least support players.

 

* I like Eichel Reinhart Okposo Kane and ROR leading the offence. With growth from the first two, that's an excellent top five.

* I like Girgensons, Larsson, Foligno and Carrier as foot soldiers. They're young relatively cheap and edgy.

* I think Ennis and Moulson aren't good enough anymore to complement the top guys, don't have the right kind of game to play in the bottom half of the roster and need to be moved. They are leaders by their age, but not by their play and it's bad for morale.

* I like the potential of pencilling in two of Baptiste, Fasching and Bailey to replace them. They add some needed size and speed on the wings.

* I like the versatility of Rodrigues as a 13th forward.

* I think Nylander is our second most skilled forward. I don't think he's ready opening night, but I do expect him to play next year.

* I think it's unrealistic to expect each of the last five guys to make the jump. At least one middle six veteran winger needs to be added. Gionta appears to be the best option out there. A versatile veteran bottom six guy should also be added to smooth out the ups and downs of the kids in the room and provide on-ice depth and insurance.

 

Yes, that is not a lot of change up front, but I think we have a good group of forwards and we are young enough to expect some growth.

Edited April 29, 2017 by dudacek

[inkman]

I think Nylander is our sixth or lower most skilled forward. I'd put 15,23,90,21 and 9 ahead of him in the skill department. Right now he's fighting with Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Rodrigues for #6.

Edited April 29, 2017 by inkman

[dudacek]

As we all know, the defence needs work.

 

* Risto is great and a warrior. He can play on any team's top pair. I'd like to see his defensive minutes cut.

* I think McCabe's ceiling is higher than we think. He's still a kid and he's a warrior. I'm good with him on the second pair.

* love to see Bogo rebound under a new coach. Won't count on it. Pencil him in on the third pair and cross your fingers. As I've posted elsewhere, wouldn't mind seeing him paired with Risto on an offensive pair.

* Falk is a surprisingly capable seven.

* Gorges might be capable of playing on the third pair and killing penalties. Rather we move on.

* Antipin has to be pencilled in to the top six or he wouldn't be coming over. Guhle looked like an NHL defenceman in a brief showing. They each have the skill set we needed, but it would be foolish to pencil either in higher than the bottom pair.

 

We need a first pairing guy and a second pairing guy. Not going to happen. But there is also no way we can go into next season and succeed with the above as our top seven. It's imperative we acquire a guy who can at least be a capable 2nd pair player and another player at least the equal of Falk for depth.

 

 

I think Nylander is our sixth or lower most skilled forward. I'd put 15,23,90,21 and 9 ahead of him in the skill department. Right now he's fighting with Bailey, Baptiste, Fasching and Rodrigues for #6.

9 beats him as a skater but can't touch his hands or hockey sense. 23 and maybe 90 might be better passers but they can't shoot or skate like he can. 21 maybe has his shot, but nothing else. Nylander's issue is he's a practice player now, hasn't got the strength or experience to put those skills to use against men yet. He may never put it all together, but his skill set is underrated on this board.

Edited April 29, 2017 by dudacek

[Thorny]

Great write-up, dudacek.

 

I'd like to see them add a left shot winger to the group, as our LW depth chart is less than inspiring. For this reason, I'd like to see that middle 6 vet add you mentioned be this player, rather than Gionta.

 

Agreed on the defence, the addition of a top 4 guy is an absolute must and priority number 1. McCabe and Guhle will be on the left side, Ristolainen and Bogosian on the right. I'm guessing Antipin, being able to play both sides, will play the side opposite to whatever side shot the hopeful acquisition is.

 

Nylander will be a fixture in our top 6 for years to come. I've seen nothing this year to change my view that he has sky high potential, and see no reason to doubt him becoming an accomplished addition to our forward group in time.

Edited April 29, 2017 by Thorny

[bob_sauve28]

None of the free agent defensemen available would upgrade our defense? I have to think there is something out there.

[Rasmus_]

I think we have 12 legitimate NHLers:

Eichel, ROR, Reinhart, Larsson, Girgensons, Okposo, Kane, Foligno, Ristolainen, McCabe, Bogosian and Lehner.

I think we've seen enough from Ullmark, Carrier, and Falk to pencil them in as at least support players.

 

* I like Eichel Reinhart Okposo Kane and ROR leading the offence. With growth from the first two, that's an excellent top five.

* I like Girgensons, Larsson, Foligno and Carrier as foot soldiers. They're young relatively cheap and edgy.

* I think Ennis and Moulson aren't good enough anymore to complement the top guys, don't have the right kind of game to play in the bottom half of the roster and need to be moved. They are leaders by their age, but not by their play and it's bad for morale.

* I like the potential of pencilling in two of Baptiste, Fasching and Bailey to replace them. They add some needed size and speed on the wings.

* I like the versatility of Rodrigues as a 13th forward.

* I think Nylander is our second most skilled forward. I don't think he's ready opening night, but I do expect him to play next year.

* I think it's unrealistic to expect each of the last five guys to make the jump. At least one middle six veteran winger needs to be added. Gionta appears to be the best option out there. A versatile veteran bottom six guy should also be added to smooth out the ups and downs of the kids in the room and provide on-ice depth and insurance.

 

Yes, that is not a lot of change up front, but I think we have a good group of forwards and we are young enough to expect some growth.

 

All of this is sound judgement.  I also really agree that Ennis and Moulson are on the outs within the top 9.  Ennis is skilled enough, but when finally healthy looked like a cast off.  Moulson is just not what he once was.  Here's hoping Ennis is shipped to Vegas and we can pay 50% of moulsons contract to get him out of here.  

 

Kane / Nylander - O'Reilly - Okposo

Kane / Nylander - Eichel - Reinhart

Foligno - Larsson - Bailey / Carrier / Gionta

Carrier / Rodrigues - Girgensons - Gionta / Bailey / Baptiste / Fasching

Extra: Moulson / Ennis (whomever is not claimed)

 

LD (Draft/FA) - Ristolainen

McCabe - Bogosian

Antipin / Guhle - ________ (UFA)

Extra:  Falk and Gorges

 

Lehner 

Ullmark 

Pederson

Edited April 30, 2017 by TheCerebral1

[thewookie1]

Alzner, Williams, Boyle are the 3 non-Buffalo UFA's I'd be interested in.

[GASabresIUFAN]

While Antipin may be the first roster change, to Kane or Not to Kane, that is the biggest lineup question.

 

Pluses

1) Speed

2) Scoring, especially 5 on 5

3) Plays physical

4) Still relatively young that he can be a part of a championship team (will be 26 early next season)

5) With one year left on a mostly reasonable deal and his age should make him a very sought after player.

 

Minus

1) Personality? Attitude - does his "style" fit in with the Sabres long-term and the new culture TP wants to create and will the new GM put up with him?

2) Cost - $5.25 mill currently for a 25-30 goal scorer is probably fair, but can we afford a long-term to invest in a KO type contract after this season, especially given his injury history.

3) Bad Penalties

4) Oft injured

5) Doesn't create much for linemates.

 

Ultimately the new GM will have to make up his mind about the direction he wants the Sabres to go and the decision on Kane will be a huge piece of that direction. When healthy and motivated, Kane can be unstoppable. When not, he is downright horrible. If the GM is Fenton, I can see him moving Kane out nearly immediately for more D help. Guys like Botterill and Zito, I have no idea what they'd do. This decision will affect how the GM approaches this roster this off-season and in the future. The decision might also hinge on whether the new GM gets a win now mandate from TP.

 

If the GM keeps Kane and extends him this off-season, the New GM's off-season moves will be dominated by fixing the D through smaller trades or FAs. I don't see how he secures a big D in trade without using Kane as bait (I don't see Sam as the bait because he is still cheap, under control and we didn't win the lottery). Keeping Kane also likely means bigger roles immediately for Guhle and Antipin, unless the new GM can shed some contract like both Ennis and Moulson to be to afford an Alzner and Kane.

 

The half measure here, is to keep Kane and see how the season plays out. This is a mistake IMHO. It risks Kane getting injured (a likely problem) not playing well and diminishing his trade value and could ultimately lead to the wasting of the last year of Jack and Sam's ELC. It would also mean likely foregoing the team's best opportunity to secure a a young vet top 4 D like Vatanen or Brodin through expansion related trades.

 

However moving Kane now for a young vet D, like Brodin or Vatanen or Fowler etc.., should solidify our top 3 for years to come, giving us a more competitive next season, while also giving the new GM the luxury of rebuilding the D pipeline and maybe even playing Guhle in the A if he proves he isn't quite ready for the NHL. The new GM will have to be pretty confident that guys like Bailey, Carrier, Baptiste, and Fasching can step right in a pick up some of the offense leaving with Kane's departure or he can find a couple of serviceable players in trade or FAs

Edited May 1, 2017 by GASabresFan

[dudacek]

Any interest in Ron Hainsey as that cheap veteran extra defenceman?

[GASabresIUFAN]

Any interest in Ron Hainsey as that cheap veteran extra defenceman?

Sure, but only for a year and only if other options, like Quincey, aren't avaiable.

[Rasmus_]

If he played 15 games or something, sure. But he played more than 40 and took 200 faceoffs and logged 100 minutes on the penalty kill. 

Whereas any of Bailey, Baptiste, ERod, Carrier, or even Cal O'Reilly or Cole Schneider would have been more productive. 

But I think Byslma saw him as that veteran (in terms of age) face-off/defensive guy "concept" even though in actuality, he sucks. But he did win over 52% of his face-offs!

 

Cal O'Reilly is a career AHL talent as well.  We won't see Derek Grant back in Buffalo for sure.  Unless there is some drastic rush of injuries and we make a lazy waiver claim.   

[pi2000]

I think it's comical how some here think Bogo's struggles were because of Bylsma, and at the same time every player that excelled under Bylsma did it on their own.

 

I think guys like Kane, Okposo, Eichel, guys that can get up and down the ice did well in that system. Risto had a big year offensively as well.

 

How come Risto was so much better than Bogo in the same system?

 

Answer is because Bogo has been and always will be a trainwreck in his own end. His decision making under pressure is horrendous. That has nothing to do with Bylsma.

[TrueBlueGED]

I think it's comical how some here think Bogo's struggles were because of Bylsma, and at the same time every player that excelled under Bylsma did it on their own.

 

I think guys like Kane, Okposo, Eichel, guys that can get up and down the ice did well in that system. Risto had a big year offensively as well.

 

How come Risto was so much better than Bogo in the same system?

 

Answer is because Bogo has been and always will be a trainwreck in his own end. His decision making under pressure is horrendous. That has nothing to do with Bylsma.

 

Correct. However, it is Bylsma's fault that he implemented an approach to hockey that relied on more Dzone time, and limited the freedom with which defensemen could rush the puck (Bogo's one strength). 

[pi2000]

Correct. However, it is Bylsma's fault that he implemented an approach to hockey that relied on more Dzone time, and limited the freedom with which defensemen could rush the puck (Bogo's one strength).

Bylsma's system wasn't designed to increase time spent in the dzone. In fact, it was quite the opposite (get pucks

quickly moving north up and out of the zone).

 

The problem was possession. BUF could not get pucks back in their own end for a myriad of reasons I've already gone over in other threads... the short of it is slow dmen, and forwards who don't have any defensive skill.

 

In Bogo's case he lacks quickness and awareness... not a Bylsma issue.

Edited May 8, 2017 by pi2000

[qwksndmonster]

Bylsma's system wasn't designed to increase time spent in the dzone. In fact, it was quite the opposite (get pucks

quickly moving north up and out of the zone).

 

The problem was possession. BUF could not get pucks back in their own end for a myriad of reasons I've already gone over in other threads... the short of it is slow dmen, and forwards who don't have any defensive skill.

Whether or not it was designed that way, the Sabres sure spent most of their time in the D-zone.

[WildCard]

Shaving 10s off of you exiting the zone in return for adding 2m retrieving it once it's inevitably back in your zone from said garbage exit is not the brightest move

[pi2000]

Whether or not it was designed that way, the Sabres sure spent most of their time in the D-zone.

The 3rd and 4th lines don't any defensively skilled players.

[qwksndmonster]

The 3rd and 4th lines don't any defensively skilled players.

Not true. We just abandoned our D-men without any puck support. Our team was so bad at transitioning the puck up the ice. Eichel keeping it himself was the only consistent method we had of gaining the zone.

[dudacek]

The 3rd and 4th lines don't any defensively skilled players.

Foligno, Gionta, Larsson, Girgensons: train wrecks?

[Winston]

I want Botterill to bring in Nick Bonino. He's a UFA that he could bring along from Pittsburgh. Also a BU guy (not that it means anything, but still cool for Eich)

 

Center spine of:

 

Eichel

Reinhart/ROR (other on RW)

Bonino

Larsson