2017-18 lineup prediction (the Original Lineup Thread)

[WildCard]

172 WHITEBOARDS!!! It is like virtual reality with WHITEBOARDS!!!

Only Zemgus can read more than 2 at once, and I'm not even sure Des can read period  :w00t:

[TrueBlueGED]

Y'all are focused on a name, but not the concept. It's not about the specific player. I don't care if we get Beagle or Boyle or any of a number of players. I'm trying to find someone who can win some faceoffs, improve the PK, hopefully give ROR some rest by limiting his PK minutes and maybe add a playoff experienced veteran to a lockeroom sadly lacking that experience once Gionta and Gorges are gone. Does Larsson fit this description?

At some point you're going to run out of room to backpedal to.

[WildCard]

At some point you're going to run out of room to backpedal to.

Brutal :lol:

[ubkev]

In my roster i'd much rather roll the dice with Baptiste/Bailey/Carrier types and completely exclude Ennis and Moulson from the roster. Short term pains for long term gains.

 

Agreed! I wasn't advocating for Moulson or anything, I just hate seeing Tyler Ennis' name anywhere on the Sabres. He's done. Beyond done. Moulson is done too, but he out produced the out of Ennis. Ennis skates OK, falls down, loses a puck battle and then produces no offense whatsoever.

[Sabel79]

Matty Mo's (relative) usefulness, plus his actual salary relative to cap hit gives me some hope that he'll be elsewhere come the beginning of next season.

 

Having read the sentence I just typed, I'm questioning my own grip on reality, but we'll roll with it. 

[Doohickie]

Matty Mo's (relative) usefulness, plus his actual salary relative to cap hit gives me some hope that he'll be elsewhere come the beginning of next season.

 

Having read the sentence I just typed, I'm questioning my own grip on reality, but we'll roll with it. 

 

You just package him as, "Oh, he just needs a fresh start somewhere."  Done.

[ubkev]

Matty Mo's (relative) usefulness, plus his actual salary relative to cap hit gives me some hope that he'll be elsewhere come the beginning of next season.

 

Having read the sentence I just typed, I'm questioning my own grip on reality, but we'll roll with it.

Don't get me started on money. I'm just glad I'm not paying him.

 

 

Having read that sentence, I think I just said I was glad I wasn't a billionaire...

 

...i take it back, but that contract, man

[Sabre fan]

one of the best moves the leafs actually did was getting rid of vets with huge contracts...heck Kessel still produces but they even got rid of his contract. If Ennis or Moulson produced half as good as kessel I 'd say keep them but unfortunately they are both finished and I really do not think Vegas will take either. Would you if you were the GM of Vegas starting a team? I highly doubt it. we are stuck with those contracts and it sucks cause I would much rather play young guys such as Bailey Fasching Carrier Baptiste etc

[TheAud]

Y'all are focused on a name, but not the concept. It's not about the specific player. I don't care if we get Beagle or Boyle or any of a number of players. I'm trying to find someone who can win some faceoffs, improve the PK, hopefully give ROR some rest by limiting his PK minutes and maybe add a playoff experienced veteran to a lockeroom sadly lacking that experience once Gionta and Gorges are gone. Does Larsson fit this description?

In bold...I think that was the Derek Grant concept. 

[Samson's Flow]

one of the best moves the leafs actually did was getting rid of vets with huge contracts...heck Kessel still produces but they even got rid of his contract. If Ennis or Moulson produced half as good as kessel I 'd say keep them but unfortunately they are both finished and I really do not think Vegas will take either. Would you if you were the GM of Vegas starting a team? I highly doubt it. we are stuck with those contracts and it sucks cause I would much rather play young guys such as Bailey Fasching Carrier Baptiste etc

To put it another way:

 

If we gave Baptiste/Bailey/Carrier a full 82 games on the Sabres, I would say they would luck into 25-30 points minimum. I don't think that's stretching it and there is potential for one or more of them to 'get it' and produce more.

 

The last few years, Moulson (81 games in both 2015 & 2016, 21 pts & 32 pts respectively) and/or Ennis (51 games in 2016 for 13 pts, prorated to 21pts over 82 games) have demonstrated that their ceiling over the past few years is that same 20-30pts.

 

The young kids are on entry level cheap contracts, wheras Moulson and Ennis are $5MM in cap space each. Good teams need to maximize the $ per point ratio, especially for replacement level players. It is comparatively okay to overpay a bit for 50+ pt players because they are not as easily replaceable, but the JAG guys need to be optimized in terms of cap space IMO.

[GASabresIUFAN]

In bold...I think that was the Derek Grant concept. 

Concept maybe, but Grant produced nothing else and wasn't a very good pker. 

 

By the way I'm not back tracking at all.  This is something I've advocated for months.  Go look at the Off-season gameplan thread. http://forums.sabrespace.com/topic/24762-off-season-gameplan-and-wish-list/?hl=off-season.  In that thread I wrote the following. 

5) 4th line veteran center and penalty killer. We need someone can take PK draws to lessen the burdens on ROR. 

 

[Samson's Flow]

To add to the analysis so that I am not blowing smoke with my initial projections for the young forwards:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: 4pts in 14GP, ATOI only 9:14/gm; extrapolated out to 23.5pts over 82 games. 

Justin Bailey: 4pts in 32GP, ATOI only 10:38/gm; extrapolated out to 10.25pts over 82 games.

William Carrier: 8pts in 41GP, ATOI only 9:00/gm; extrapolated out to 16 pts over 82 games.

 

The above extrapolations are still based on 9-10min/game. If we increase from 9min/gm to ~15min/gm (regular shift) similar to Marcus Foligno's usage (15:28/gm in 2017) I would expect increased production. At the same scoring rates as above, with Foligno's average ice time we get:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: expected 39.4pts playing 15:30/gm 

Justin Bailey: expected 15.0pts playing 15:30/gm 

William Carrier: expected 27.6pts playing 15:30/gm

 

the above are very comparable to Moulson/Ennis production for a fraction of the cost.

Figures quoted above from http://www.hockey-reference.com

[LGR4GM]

I bet we trade a 2nd round pick to get Vegas to take Moulson, Ennis, or Bogosian. My money is on Moulson. We have paid most of his actual salary and his cap hit will be needed to get to the floor especially in year 1 for Vegas. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

To add to the analysis so that I am not blowing smoke with my initial projections for the young forwards:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: 4pts in 14GP, ATOI only 9:14/gm; extrapolated out to 23.5pts over 82 games. 

Justin Bailey: 4pts in 32GP, ATOI only 10:38/gm; extrapolated out to 10.25pts over 82 games.

William Carrier: 8pts in 41GP, ATOI only 9:00/gm; extrapolated out to 16 pts over 82 games.

 

The above extrapolations are still based on 9-10min/game. If we increase from 9min/gm to ~15min/gm (regular shift) similar to Marcus Foligno's usage (15:28/gm in 2017) I would expect increased production. At the same scoring rates as above, with Foligno's average ice time we get:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: expected 39.4pts playing 15:30/gm 

Justin Bailey: expected 15.0pts playing 15:30/gm 

William Carrier: expected 27.6pts playing 15:30/gm

 

the above are very comparable to Moulson/Ennis production for a fraction of the cost.

Figures quoted above from http://www.hockey-reference.com

Regardless of whether they reach those numbers or not in their first full NHL seasons, we need to move these un-productive vets out asap and re-invigorate our team with youth and speed.  Capfriendly has a great tool that shows cap cost per point. When you look at Ennis, Moulson and even ROR the numbers are pretty bad.  

I bet we trade a 2nd round pick to get Vegas to take Moulson, Ennis, or Bogosian. My money is on Moulson. We have paid most of his actual salary and his cap hit will be needed to get to the floor especially in year 1 for Vegas. 

 

I said something similar in another thread and Pi gave me the shocked bird meme.

[LGR4GM]

Regardless of whether they reach those numbers or not in their first full NHL seasons, we need to move these un-productive vets out asap and re-invigorate our team with youth and speed.  Capfriendly has a great tool that shows cap cost per point. When you look at Ennis, Moulson and even ROR the numbers are pretty bad.  

ROR is a perfect example of why you don't just hand out contracts based on points scored. 

[WildCard]

ROR is a perfect example of why you don't just hand out contracts based on points scored. 

So is David Clarkson, Bergeron, etc.

[GASabresIUFAN]

ROR is a perfect example of why you don't just hand out contracts based on points scored. 

He got bonus money for his FO %!   :w00t:

 

Interestingly, he is the only Sabres forward who is an outlier, except guys on ELC or 2nd contract RFAs to the rule of thumb ($100k per point).  Kane, Gionta, Moulson, Foligno, Okposo, and Ennis are all basically paid 100k per point based on their average output in the couple of years leading up to their current contracts.   

Edited April 27, 2017 by GASabresFan

[Samson's Flow]

Regardless of whether they reach those numbers or not in their first full NHL seasons, we need to move these un-productive vets out asap and re-invigorate our team with youth and speed.  Capfriendly has a great tool that shows cap cost per point. When you look at Ennis, Moulson and even ROR the numbers are pretty bad.  

I fully recognize the challenges with extrapolating out small sample sizes, but I wanted to give some context so it doesn't look like i'm just making sh!t up.

 

To your point, it is imperative that we shed the bad contracts in order to continue the team improvement. Shedding bad cap hits can be just as productive as adding good players. I look at Toronto as the most recent example in a long list.

[SabresFanInRochester]

Y'all are focused on a name, but not the concept. It's not about the specific player. I don't care if we get Beagle or Boyle or any of a number of players. I'm trying to find someone who can win some faceoffs, improve the PK, hopefully give ROR some rest by limiting his PK minutes and maybe add a playoff experienced veteran to a lockeroom sadly lacking that experience once Gionta and Gorges are gone. Does Larsson fit this description?

 

Paul Gaustad role, right?

 

I'm too lazy to look up his age, but if he's getting an entry level contract, it's automatically two way.

 

I read that there would be a clause that if he was sent down to the AHL, he could return to the KHL. That tells me it would be a two-way, and also tells me he would be given every opportunity to make the big club.

[TheAud]

To add to the analysis so that I am not blowing smoke with my initial projections for the young forwards:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: 4pts in 14GP, ATOI only 9:14/gm; extrapolated out to 23.5pts over 82 games. 

Justin Bailey: 4pts in 32GP, ATOI only 10:38/gm; extrapolated out to 10.25pts over 82 games.

William Carrier: 8pts in 41GP, ATOI only 9:00/gm; extrapolated out to 16 pts over 82 games.

 

The above extrapolations are still based on 9-10min/game. If we increase from 9min/gm to ~15min/gm (regular shift) similar to Marcus Foligno's usage (15:28/gm in 2017) I would expect increased production. At the same scoring rates as above, with Foligno's average ice time we get:

 

Nicholas Baptiste: expected 39.4pts playing 15:30/gm 

Justin Bailey: expected 15.0pts playing 15:30/gm 

William Carrier: expected 27.6pts playing 15:30/gm

 

the above are very comparable to Moulson/Ennis production for a fraction of the cost.

Figures quoted above from http://www.hockey-reference.com

 

I was thinking along the same lines. Slightly different group of players to compare, aggregating their totals, normalizing to 82 games played and 12 minutes per game:

                               GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI SOG SPCT Age

William Carrier, LW     41 5 3 8     -1  21 9:00   50  10  22.4

Evan Rodrigues, RW    30 4 2 6     -7    4 12:56 51  7.8 23.8

Nicholas Baptiste, RW 14 3 1 4      1    6 9:14   16 18.8 21.6

Justin Bailey, RW        32 2 2 4      0    4 10:38 36  5.6  21.7

Totals                   117 14 8 22 -7  35 10:27 153 9.2% 22.4

82 games              82 10 9.8 6 15.4 -5 25 10:27 107 9.2%  

12 minutes/game  82 11.3 6.4 17.7 -6 28 12:00 123 9.2%                          

 

                                         GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI         SOG SPCT Age

Zemgus Girgensons, C 75 7 9 16 -7    18 13:10       112 6.3 23.3

Tyler Ennis, LW          51 5 8 13 -10 12  12:50         89   5.6 27.5

Marcus Foligno, LW   80 13 10 23 -1 73 15:28         97 13.4 26.7

Johan Larsson, LW     36 6 5 11   -7   20 16:51         49 12.2 26.8

Totals                  242 31 32 63 -25 123 14:34   347 8.9% 26.1

82 games             82 10.5 11 21.3 -8 42 14:34  117.6 8.9%  

12 min/game        82 8.6 8.9 17.6 -7 34 12:00    97 8.9%  

 

Recognizing that there are many other differences here (special teams playing time, quality of opposition and linemates, etc) and that I am not talkign Corsi% or anything more sophisticated, it's still striking that the more veteran (and except for Zemgus, older) group is in not at all more productive than the rookie group based on last year's performance. Presumably the younger guys have more upside and we know are a lot cheaper. 

 

Same # of points (18), more shots on goal. 

 

I really hope the new GM and Coach combo can figure this out in a way that ExGMTM and DDB could not. 

 

(edit: Obviously I need to learn how to format stuff on this forum)

Edited April 27, 2017 by Sakman

[Samson's Flow]

I was thinking along the same lines. Slightly different group of players to compare, aggregating their totals, normalizing to 82 games played and 12 minutes per game:

                               GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI SOG SPCT Age

William Carrier, LW     41 5 3 8     -1  21 9:00   50  10  22.4

Evan Rodrigues, RW    30 4 2 6     -7    4 12:56 51  7.8 23.8

Nicholas Baptiste, RW 14 3 1 4      1    6 9:14   16 18.8 21.6

Justin Bailey, RW        32 2 2 4      0    4 10:38 36  5.6  21.7

Totals                   117 14 8 22 -7  35 10:27 153 9.2% 22.4

82 games              82 10 9.8 6 15.4 -5 25 10:27 107 9.2%  

12 minutes/game  82 11.3 6.4 17.7 -6 28 12:00 123 9.2%                          

 

                                         GP G A PTS +/- PIM ATOI         SOG SPCT Age

Zemgus Girgensons, C 75 7 9 16 -7    18 13:10       112 6.3 23.3

Tyler Ennis, LW          51 5 8 13 -10 12  12:50         89   5.6 27.5

Marcus Foligno, LW   80 13 10 23 -1 73 15:28         97 13.4 26.7

Johan Larsson, LW     36 6 5 11   -7   20 16:51         49 12.2 26.8

Totals                  242 31 32 63 -25 123 14:34   347 8.9% 26.1

82 games             82 10.5 11 21.3 -8 42 14:34  117.6 8.9%  

12 min/game        82 8.6 8.9 17.6 -7 34 12:00    97 8.9%  

 

Recognizing that there are many other differences here (special teams playing time, quality of opposition and linemates, etc) and that I am not talkign Corsi% or anything more sophisticated, it's still striking that the more veteran (and except for Zemgus, older) group is in not at all more productive than the rookie group based on last year's performance. Presumably the younger guys have more upside and we know are a lot cheaper. 

 

I really hope the new GM and Coach combo can figure this out in a way that ExGMTM and DDB could not. 

 

(edit: Obviously I need to learn how to format stuff on this forum)

Your figures are a lot more comprehensive, but the same thought. Normalizing minutes and games shows that the bottom half of the roster is expensive for the same basic production. I think the top forwards are fine, but we are not maximizing the impact of the 'role players' area.

 

Chicago was successful identifying the handful of guys to pay and keep long term, then filling the rest of the roster with the best bang for your buck role players, often young entry-level contracts.

[LGR4GM]

If we can dump Moulson and ride out the last year of Ennis' deal or trade him somehow, I think we will be doing better. We have 3 bad contracts in my mind. Ennis, Moulson, Bogo. If we can ditch one to Vegas and somehow trade 1 more, I think we will be better off. I also think Bogo will be better under a different coach. 

[Taro T]

In bold...I think that was the Derek Grant concept.

 

Not really. Grant is a career AHLer & was brought in to be just that - an AHLer. Had some forwards not gotten injured right at the start, he wouldn't have seen nearly as many NHL games.

[dudacek]

Has everyone completely written off Bogosian?

No chance he can be a decent second-pairing guy under a new coach?

Edited April 27, 2017 by dudacek

[Sabres Fan in NS]

Has everyone completely written off Bogosian?

No chance he can be a decent second-pairing guy under a new coach?

 

No.

 

Yes.