Lehner vs. Nilsson - Looking Forward to Free Agency

[darksabre]

Here we are, 1/3 of the way through the season, and in my opinion it seems we're at an interesting point with our goalies. As a Lehner fan who wants him to succeed, I am starting to have doubts. 

On the stat sheet this season, they're putting up almost identical numbers, except in the win column.



Their NHL career stats aren't too dissimilar. Lehner, although younger, has more experience. His numbers overall are better. 





Now, I'm not digging into the fancy stats here, but what I'm curious about is whether or not the Sabres are playing better hockey in front of Nilsson. I have this gut feeling from watching him that the team in general is far more comfortable with him in net than Lehner. They seem to trust him a little more. That's just what my eyes tell me though.

 

GMTM will have to make decisions about both guys at the end of this season. Lehner is an RFA, and Nilsson is a UFA. Both are roughly the same age, although Lehner has seen more NHL games than Nilsson, who spent 2014-15 in the KHL where he played 38 games. 



As the season goes on, perhaps Lehner will emerge as the true number 1. But if he doesn't, should we be offering him a substantial RFA deal? Do we take him to arbitration? It's quite possible that Nilsson at 26 breaks out and Lehner doesn't. Perhaps Nilsson's time in the KHL helped his development. Both of them are right at the point in their careers where it's make or break for a goalie. Is Nilsson at 1.5 mil/per a better deal than Lehner at 3.0 mil/per? 

We shall see. I don't think Lehner is under-performing, but I also didn't expect him to be challenged by Nilsson. 
 

Edited December 7, 2016 by d4rksabre

[sabills]

The concern with Nilsson is whether he can keep up those type of stats with a full workload, something he's never done. Of course, there is the same concern of Lehner...

 

Honestly, Nilsson means almost nothing to me. How many goalies have we seen come through the Sabres over the last 5 years and perform adequately? I really believe there are 3 tiers of goalies in the NHL. Bad Goalies (bottom 10-15%), everyone else, and Great Goalies/Henrik Lundqvist. Its a position I'm not going to really be concerned about until I have reason to be concerned about it. 

 

My only problem with Lehner is that he cost me a 1st to get him.

[darksabre]

The concern with Nilsson is whether he can keep up those type of stats with a full workload, something he's never done. Of course, there is the same concern of Lehner...

 

Honestly, Nilsson means almost nothing to me. How many goalies have we seen come through the Sabres over the last 5 years and perform adequately? I really believe there are 3 tiers of goalies in the NHL. Bad Goalies (bottom 10-15%), everyone else, and Great Goalies/Henrik Lundqvist. Its a position I'm not going to really be concerned about until I have reason to be concerned about it. 

 

My only problem with Lehner is that he cost me a 1st to get him.

I think what's interesting is that Nilsson hasn't had a real shot at the NHL like Lehner has. If Lehner gets hurt again and Nilsson plays 30 games this year and looks good, should we just say "hey, these guys are both middle of the road, let's pay the cheaper one who gets hurt less"? 

[Sabel79]

Right or wrong, GMTM made a significant investment in bringing Lehner here. It'd probably take something fairly spectacular, in one direction or another, to have him give up on the guy.

 

I'm kind of having ETHRON! flashbacks with Nilsson though. A lot of angst surrounding the goaltender position since way back when the emo kid took over. The backup always seems to look better in short stints.

[darksabre]

Right or wrong, GMTM made a significant investment in bringing Lehner here. It'd probably take something fairly spectacular, in one direction or another, to have him give up on the guy.

 

I'm kind of having ETHRON! flashbacks with Nilsson though. A lot of angst surrounding the goaltender position since way back when the emo kid took over. The backup always seems to look better in short stints.

I don't really know if that situation is comparable. Lehner hasn't proven to be as durable as Miller, and unlike Miller, he didn't set the league on fire his rookie season. Sure, Enroth had some success as a backup, but it was never in doubt that Miller was in possession of the starting job even if their numbers looked similar at times. 

 

Lehner doesn't have the separation from Nilsson that Miller had from Enroth. 

 

 

[dudacek]

It would be interesting to read a paper on fan psychology as it pertains to backup goalies.

 

Lehner has been perfectly fine as a starter, Nilsson the same as a backup.

Neither has performed in a manner to suggest they are due any kind of significant raise.

 

Season still has a long way to go, but I'd be perfectly happy giving them reasonable raises and going into next year with the same pair.

 

Salary could be a factor, but if Murray believed in Lehner before I don't know how his play this year would have changed his mind.

 

I'm with SAbills take on goalie rankings. Lehner is as good as most.

Edited December 7, 2016 by dudacek

[Peppy22]

Easy pick for me... I pick Lehner over Nilsson... Nilsson's rebound-control has been terrible at times... Sabres score a little bit more goals with Nilsson in net which isn't really something u can blame on Lehner :D

[Doohickie]

Two things I like better about Nilsson-

 

1. Better shootout performance (which explains better W-L for similar stats?)

 

2. Better rebound control (which is why team looks more comfortable with him).

[pi2000]

Nilsson gets the weaker opponent on back-to-backs, so naturally he has a better winning % than Lehner (and more goal support). 

 

However, Lehner's performance in shootouts is a major concern.  

[beerme1]

Is there a reason we cant have both next year?

[rakish]

I don't think save percentage is a useful statistic. I think it's why it's difficult to draft goaltenders.

 

If you break down their game logs, despite what Pi thinks, Nilsson has played a much more difficult group of teams. The Sabres will score more against the Rangers than they do against the Bruins because the style of play changes. Nilsson's opponents have averaged 75.5 goals so far (I'm too tired to calculate goals per game, which would be better) where as Lehner's opponents score under 69.5.

 

Additionally, Bylsma will play a different game regarding his confidence in his goaltending, so in the end, I think the only valuable stat is GF-GA as compared to opponents GF/GA, which is decidedly Nilsson right now.

 

Let's look at a few games

Lehner

Montreal: Lehner gives up bad goal on long wrist shot, 1 rebound, 1 deflection, 1 scrum

Edmonton: 2 weak side rebounds

Calgary: 1 bad rebound, 1 bad foligno, 1 bad Lehner, 1 bad O'Reilly

Vancouver: One bad Bogo, one bad foligno/O'Reilly

Minnesota: Bad rebound coupled with bad O'Reilly/Larsson

Toronto: 1 bad Kulikov, 1 bad Risto/Foligno/Larsson

Ottawa: 1 bad Larsson

New Jersey: 1 bad Kane, 1 bad Nelson, 1 bad Lehner/Risto/Girgensons, 1 bad Risto

St Louis: PK rebound, bad Risto/Reinhart, bad Nelson/Falk

Tampa: Reinhart, Kane, Baptiste (worth the bus ticket the next day), Risto/Larsson

Calgary: Franson, PK Risto/Grant

Detroit: Fedun or O'Reilly

Boston

Washington

 

Nilsson

Philadelphia: 3 PKs, 2 on Bylsma (which I will discuss at another time), the other is a Bogo/Foligno botch

Minnesota: 1 bad Nilsson, 1 bad Franson, 1 bad Grant/Delo, 1 no highlight

Florida: Shutout

New Jersey: 1 bad Gionta/Larsson, 1 Penalty Shot

Pittsburgh: Grant

Ottawa

Washington

Rangers

Edmonton

 

OK, conclusions? I think Lehner's been OK. Playing tight without having any scoring in the lineup has been good for his save percentage. I think Nilsson has been better.

Edited December 7, 2016 by rakish

[Two or less]

Nilsson has received better goal support then Lehner so far and Nilsson has struggled some on the PK. Nilsson .851 save % compared to .886 % for Lehner. Not sure he can keep it up, but I think Nilsson has earned more playing time but I don't think Lehner has really been the problem either.

[JJFIVEOH]

Nilsson gets the weaker opponent on back-to-backs, so naturally he has a better winning % than Lehner (and more goal support).

 

However, Lehner's performance in shootouts is a major concern.

Regardless of back to back, he's faced Washington, Edmonton, New York and Pittsburgh in his last 5 starts. That's not weak.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Is there a reason we cant have both next year?

There isn't one. We can certainly protect Lehner from expansion and re-sign Nilsson, who has has been very solid. I think keeping both will keep pushing Lehner to improve. I'd sign Lehner to 3 years max however as Peterson is coming. I think the acquisition, GMTM's 8th choice for backup) has worked much better then expected.

 

I'm glad to see Chad Johnson carry over his good play from last season into this one with the Flames.

[Radar]

Not to say I'm totally sold on either but this idea that we gave up a lot for Lehner. Go back and do history of lower first round picks and don't think it was that great a risk compared to who we may have picked at that spot.

[MattPie]

I don't think save percentage is a useful statistic. I think it's why it's difficult to draft goaltenders.

 

SNIP the GOOD DATA

 

GT's are hard to draft because every young goaltender has holes. The good ones can learn and adjust to what the "book" on them is once they get to the NHL and shooters can place shots better. The flame-outs are the GT's that can't adjust or open other holes when they fix something, even if their raw athleticism got them by in juniors/etc. The comparison is made to QB in football a lot; the reason QBs are hard to predict is they have to be able to adjust to the NFL D and a whole different level of player. The average college team has a couple of guys on D that might see the NFL; Every NFL team as essentially all-stars from the college level. Some QBs can process that, many can't.

[LGR4GM]

Not to say I'm totally sold on either but this idea that we gave up a lot for Lehner. Go back and do history of lower first round picks and don't think it was that great a risk compared to who we may have picked at that spot.

Brock. Boeser.

[rakish]

I think Matt, we are making the same argument. If save percentage was a useful stat, drafting goaltenders would be simple, but it far too contextual and I think you're right it doesn't seem to translate between skill levels. The same holds true for Quarterbacks.

 

Minor league forwards, on the other hand, project much easier with a bit of data manipulation, since goals and assists is a useful stat.

[beerme1]

I'm glad to see Chad Johnson carry over his good play from last season into this one with the Flames.

 

I'm happy for Chad. Playing so damn well and being at home. Good for him I hope he continues to carry it on and gets them to the playoffs where they humiliate the Oil in 4 :rolleyes:

[Thorny]

Right or wrong, GMTM made a significant investment in bringing Lehner here. It'd probably take something fairly spectacular, in one direction or another, to have him give up on the guy.

I'm kind of having ETHRON! flashbacks with Nilsson though. A lot of angst surrounding the goaltender position since way back when the emo kid took over. The backup always seems to look better in short stints.

  

Not to say I'm totally sold on either but this idea that we gave up a lot for Lehner. Go back and do history of lower first round picks and don't think it was that great a risk compared to who we may have picked at that spot.

Right. I certainly hope Murray isn't tied to Lehner because we gave up a pick for him. More likely would be that Murray is tied to Lehner due to the reason he traded for him. Because he had and still has faith in him.

 

Having said that, I'm more in line with dudacek's line of thinking.

[bob_sauve28]

http://buffalonews.com/2016/12/07/mike-harrington-time-sabres-go-hot-hand-net/

 

Pretty interesting

[Ogre]

I'm happy for Chad. Playing so damn well and being at home. Good for him I hope he continues to carry it on and gets them to the playoffs where they humiliate the Oil in 4 :rolleyes:

+1

[PASabreFan]

http://buffalonews.com/2016/12/07/mike-harrington-time-sabres-go-hot-hand-net/

 

Pretty interesting

Incoming obligatory Harrington snark. Meanwhile, he's a very fine sportswriter.

[Huckleberry]

Lehner isn't going anywhere , Nilsson might be, but we still got Ullmark in the wings.

The goalies aren't my worry tbh.

[Two or less]

Lehner isn't going anywhere , Nilsson might be, but we still got Ullmark in the wings.

The goalies aren't my worry tbh.

 

Murray took a costly risk to acquire Lehner, and i still think he believes in him. But, i don't think Murray is married to him because he spend a first round pick on him. Martin Biron over the summer mentioned on radio he heard Murray had inquired about Ben Bishop. So if Lehner struggles, i don't think it'll be long before Murray starts looking at other options.