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2016 NHL Draft


Crusader1969

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McDavid-Laine would be stupid good. And would allow them to trade Hall, who would easily get the best return out of the players they wind up trading.

 

PK Subban is heading west

 

I love Taylor Hall, I really do. But Montreal would have to be a special kind of stupid to trade Subban for a winger not named Patrick Kane.

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I love Taylor Hall, I really do. But Montreal would have to be a special kind of stupid to trade Subban for a winger not named Patrick Kane.

....so PK is heading West? I mean, it is Bergevin we're talking about here

 

If I'm Montreal, I'd want Drasaitl/RNH + some

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....so PK is heading West? I mean, it is Bergevin we're talking about here

 

If I'm Montreal, I'd want Drasaitl/RNH + some

 

 

You guys should rent a room at pearl street.

 

 

Rnh, nurse, this year's 2nd for Subban would be a ballpark id guess

 

Sounds right to me, though if I were MTL I'd push for Klefbom.

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Sounds right to me, though if I were MTL I'd push for Klefbom.

The question is, is EDM smart enough to know they need to make a charge. They should also trade Eberle or Hall.  Make McDavid captain too. Also they should draft Puljujarvi over Laine.  They need that 2-way style. Maybe they will get lucky and draft 3rd, save themselves from themselves. 

 

Quick note I would be very happy with Laine, but in Edmonton's case, I would want a player who can keep up with McDavid's speed and is better at the 2-way game, hence Puljujarvi. Columbus, Phoenix, Calgary, any of those teams should take Laine 2nd. 

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BUF lands in the 8th spot.

 

chances...

 

1st: 6.00%

2nd: 6.36%

3rd: 6.76%

 

8th: 39.22%

9th: 34.76%

10th: 6.63%

11th: 0.27%

 

chance of moving UP: 19.12%

chance of staying at 8: 39.22%

chance of sliding DOWN: 41.66%

 

AVG pick: 8.23

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BUF lands in the 8th spot.

 

chances...

 

1st: 6.00%

2nd: 6.36%

3rd: 6.76%

 

8th: 39.22%

9th: 34.76%

10th: 6.63%

11th: 0.27%

 

chance of moving UP: 19.12%

chance of staying at 8: 39.22%

chance of sliding DOWN: 41.66%

 

AVG pick: 8.23

I'd like to lump 9 in with 8 as it makes me feel a little better
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So of the 16 "worst" choices they listed 2 were ours.  Awesome.

 

The good news is that we now have a ~93% chance of drafting top 9, and our franchise history for drafting top 9 is actually pretty good. Of the 13 selections, 2 are Hall of Famers (Perreault, Housley), 4 went on to have excellent NHL careers (Martin, Schoenfeld, Barrasso, Turgeon), 3 are current Sabres whom we all like (Risto, Reinhart, Eichel), 1 is still playing and having a solid NHL career though maybe a bit underwhelming for his talent level (Vanek), 1 was having a decent career before injuries struck (Cyr), 1 was just ok but at least lasted a decade in the league (Rasmussen), and 1 could be safely called a "bust" but at least managed 8 seasons in the NHL (Anderson).

 

Now contrast this top 9 drafting history with the Bills.....

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Without a change to the order... this is what I could see happening.

Matthews - Tor

Laine - Edm

Puljujarvi - Van

Tkachuk - Cbus

Chyrchrun - Cgy

Nylander - Wnp

Dubois - Phx

Sergachev/Juolevi - Buf

I like it except I think McLeod will be taken by either Calgary or Winnipeg. Columbus is in desperate need of a centre - could they trade down? perhaps to 8th? Plus I don't think Calgary takes a Dman. I'm just guessing here but I think Juolevi goes before Chychrun. Edited by Crusader1969
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I like it except I think McLeod will be taken by either Calgary or Winnipeg. Columbus is in desperate need of a centre - could they trade down? perhaps to 8th? Plus I don't think Calgary takes a Dman. I'm just guessing here but I think Juolevi goes before Chychrun.

I think EDM and ARI are the logical candidates to go with Defense. I think Juolevi and Chychrun are gone by the time eighth comes around. That would possibly leave DuBois, Bean or Sergachev available.

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The good news is that we now have a ~93% chance of drafting top 9, and our franchise history for drafting top 9 is actually pretty good. Of the 13 selections, 2 are Hall of Famers (Perreault, Housley), 4 went on to have excellent NHL careers (Martin, Schoenfeld, Barrasso, Turgeon), 3 are current Sabres whom we all like (Risto, Reinhart, Eichel), 1 is still playing and having a solid NHL career though maybe a bit underwhelming for his talent level (Vanek), 1 was having a decent career before injuries struck (Cyr), 1 was just ok but at least lasted a decade in the league (Rasmussen), and 1 could be safely called a "bust" but at least managed 8 seasons in the NHL (Anderson).

 

Now contrast this top 9 drafting history with the Bills.....

nice work!
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BUF lands in the 8th spot.

 

chances...

 

1st: 6.00%

2nd: 6.36%

3rd: 6.76%

 

8th: 39.22%

9th: 34.76%

10th: 6.63%

11th: 0.27%

 

chance of moving UP: 19.12%

chance of staying at 8: 39.22%

chance of sliding DOWN: 41.66%

 

AVG pick: 8.2

 

 

We're in a much better position than I than I thought. Nearly a 20% chance of moving into the top 3? Remarkable.

Edited by Flatlander
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We're in a much better position than I than I thought. Nearly a 20% chance of moving into the top 3? Remarkable.

Essentially the same chance of moving into the top 3 as we had of winning the lottery last year. I want top 3 just as much for the F you it gives to the NHL, as for the high end talent it would mean.

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I like it except I think McLeod will be taken by either Calgary or Winnipeg. Columbus is in desperate need of a centre - could they trade down? perhaps to 8th? Plus I don't think Calgary takes a Dman. I'm just guessing here but I think Juolevi goes before Chychrun.

I think it will be hard for Cbus to pass on Tkachuk

 

I think EDM and ARI are the logical candidates to go with Defense. I think Juolevi and Chychrun are gone by the time eighth comes around. That would possibly leave DuBois, Bean or Sergachev available.

There is a 0% chance that Edmonton drafts a defender at #2 overall. If they end up drafting 5th, maybe, but at #2 they are taking a Finn and trading for a defender. I personally think defenders will slide a bit. It is a trend that has cropped up in the last few drafts. I think this will mean only 1 of the defenders goes before Buffalo selects at #8. While it is possible another defender comes off the board, Sergachev/Juolevi/Chyrchrum one will still be available for Buffalo to take. If all 3 of them are gone, it means a very good forward prospect has slid to us. You can probably assume that Matthews, 2 Finns, Tkachuk, and either Dubois or Nylander will be gone in the top 7. That is potentially 6 forwards. If Mcleod somehow ends up in that mix as well, the better for us. Either way there is a definite dip at 10. We should get someone good.

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I think it will be hard for Cbus to pass on Tkachuk

 

There is a 0% chance that Edmonton drafts a defender at #2 overall. If they end up drafting 5th, maybe, but at #2 they are taking a Finn and trading for a defender. I personally think defenders will slide a bit. It is a trend that has cropped up in the last few drafts. I think this will mean only 1 of the defenders goes before Buffalo selects at #8. While it is possible another defender comes off the board, Sergachev/Juolevi/Chyrchrum one will still be available for Buffalo to take. If all 3 of them are gone, it means a very good forward prospect has slid to us. You can probably assume that Matthews, 2 Finns, Tkachuk, and either Dubois or Nylander will be gone in the top 7. That is potentially 6 forwards. If Mcleod somehow ends up in that mix as well, the better for us. Either way there is a definite dip at 10. We should get someone good.

As long as we aren't drafting 10th or 11th
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As long as we aren't drafting 10th or 11th

That's the catch. I mean, I hope the defenders slide and they could not, it is possible. Right now you got 3 defenders and 7 forwards who I would put in that tier 1 and then you have that tier 2 of roughly 3-4 players. 

Forwards: Matthews, Laine, Puljujarvi, Tkachuk, Nylander, Dubois, and Mcleod. 

Defenders: Juolevi, Chychrun, Sergachev

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Where does Vessey and Caggiula rank between the top 7 forwards? (Tkachuk, Matthews, Finns, Dubois, Nylander, Mcleod) Obviously different circumstances but just for the sake of comparison? I know very little about NCAA hockey.

Edited by IrwinNelson
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Dubois or Nylander if we don't win the lottery please and thank you.

 

Also, not sure this belongs in the trade thread or here.  If we end up with pick 8 is he worth Cam Fowler straight up?  Who would have to add?

I would risk taking one of the defenders over trading it for Fowler. I think Fowler is good but I think you have the very real potential of getting a better player at #8.  

Where does Vessey and Caggiula rank between the top 7 forwards? (Tkachuk, Matthews, Finns, Dubois, Nylander, Mcleod) Obviously different circumstances but just for the sake of comparison? I know very little about NCAA hockey.

Hard to say because they are both older. I saw more of Vessey than I did Caligula.  Vessey is good and I think would rank in that Dubois/Nylander/McLeod grouping. 

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