Brawndo Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 The Oilers looked very good last night. They were playing at a speed that we are not capable of playing at. They should have much better second half of the season. Who ever said Derek Roy isn't a winner? He may well propel us to the Shart! `Todd Nelson is actually a heck of a coach. He led a largely devoid of talent OKC Barons to the AHL Playoffs last season. They are not making the playoffs but, it will be interesting to see what he can do over the next 41 games with the Oilers. Unrelated, but there's this:Check out @D_Jedamski's Tweet: https://twitter.com/...7649999872?s=09 So what you are saying is if they improve their corsi by 1.7% per game they are a playoff team? :P Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Randall Flagg Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 Wow. I'm sorry, I could've sworn you were Numark. Unrelated, but there's this:Check out @D_Jedamski's Tweet: https://twitter.com/...7649999872?s=09 I don't know how far our shooting % has come down, but just looking at Enroth who was well above his career .911 SP, and the last ten or so has been below .900, if he goes back to his career average, do you think that would be enough to keep us out of last? Or are you not worried at all? If you had a rough guess at a % chance we finish in last place based on our stats, what would it be? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't know how far our shooting % has come down, but just looking at Enroth who was well above his career .911 SP, and the last ten or so has been below .900, if he goes back to his career average, do you think that would be enough to keep us out of last? Or are you not worried at all? If you had a rough guess at a % chance we finish in last place based on our stats, what would it be? Based on stats we have a 50/50 shot which is all based on what Edmonton does. It'll take more than our sucking to win it this year since we created separation at one point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Robviously Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 Wow. I'm sorry, I could've sworn you were Numark. Unrelated, but there's this:Check out @D_Jedamski's Tweet: https://twitter.com/...7649999872?s=09 If anything, that's not a ringing endorsement of Corsi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 I was once a numark! Go shart Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derrico Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 :cry: True doesn't remember who I actually am :P (Arcsabresfan, that college kid who rarely knows what he's talking about) I get ya, but more than once this week I got around to thinking that it probably looks bad that we haven't posted much with regards to how they're playing :P So this was a nice way to put out what I was thinking. I finish up work soon to head back to school, so I get to see the rest of the ###### show, won't miss anymore games, woohoo! I also plan to stop any anti-tank stuff at this point other than to poke fun maybe, cause we're close enough to the end now that I can manage, especially cause I seem to remember real hockey games being present on NBC and the like a lot more often once the new year turns. There have been a couple of ppl willing to accept the suckitude the rest of the way now that the season is over half over. Please god let us win the shart and then never speak of this year again haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qwksndmonster Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 I was once a numark! Go shart Professor man doesn't think us youngins are important enough to learn our names. What a dick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted January 10, 2015 Report Share Posted January 10, 2015 I don't know how far our shooting % has come down, but just looking at Enroth who was well above his career .911 SP, and the last ten or so has been below .900, if he goes back to his career average, do you think that would be enough to keep us out of last? Or are you not worried at all? If you had a rough guess at a % chance we finish in last place based on our stats, what would it be? Completely off the cuff I'd say 40%. I expect Enroth to bounce back from the recent stretch, but I was never sold on him as a 913 as a starter, so if he doesn't climb all the way back up I wouldn't be surprised. I do think we're the worst team in the league, and I think both Edmonton and Carolina are better than their records show, but I also don't think we're going to drop 9 of every 10 the rest of the way. Combine that with the fact that we still haven't caught them, and it's far from a sure thing. That said, I think our chances are better than any other team now that we've had a slide which puts us in the ballpark. If anything, that's not a ringing endorsement of Corsi. Really depends what you're using it for. If you want to explain how a team can go from winning 10/13 to losing 9/10, the extreme shooting and save percentages are of course going to overwhelm the Corsi. But this is nothing new, it's well known that shooting and save percentages explain past outcomes better than Corsi, especially when dealing with extreme values. The reason Corsi is valuable is its stability, which means it's better at telling us what a team's true talent is. So if you want to try to predict where the Sabres are going to end up at the end if the year, you're much better off relying on Corsi as the foundation of the prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 11, 2015 Report Share Posted January 11, 2015 SO win for Carolina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 11, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 11, 2015 Current standings through games played 1/10. Team ----- GP - L - W - OT - PTS - MPP Edmonton 42 23 10 9 55 135 Buffalo 43 26 14 3 55 133 Carolina 42 24 13 5 53 133 New Jersey 44 21 15 8 50 126 Arizona 41 21 16 4 46 128 Philadelphia 42 19 16 7 45 125 Columbus 40 19 18 3 41 125 Colorado 42 16 18 8 40 120 Ottawa 41 16 17 8 40 122 Dallas 41 16 18 7 39 121 MPP = Maximum Possible Points Eulers play their game in hand tonight against the Cats. 0 points would officially put the Sabres in a 2 way (possibly 3 way if Canes pick up 2 in their game in hand) tie for 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sabres Fan in NS Posted January 11, 2015 Report Share Posted January 11, 2015 Sorry NS and FormerlyNumark, I should have had an emoticon in my post. Just having a little fun with the back and forth, not meant as a serious call out :) No problem, sparky. I am still anti-tank, but stuck in reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Analytics aside, the important stat to watch is team goal differential. The team finishing with the worst gf/ga differential has finished last 15 of the past 16 years. Buffalo at -71 is almost 30 goals worse than EDM (-44) and its only half way through the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
... Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I like the additional info in the standings sheet, but it formats horribly on mobile devices. I guess I can probably say that, as it stands now, Tank was right about the wildcard slots; there's no way this team vies for 9/8/7 (in the NHL). What's left is to figure out where they'll land in the CHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LastPommerFan Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Rotating the screen seems to solve the formatting issues for me. I'm willing to put that kind of effort into the tank. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 Maybe we could turn to team abbreviations for the standings? Might help formatting for mobile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 According this article, the Sabres have the best chance at the CHL Championship. http://www.wgr550.com/What-do-stats-say-about-where-the-Sabres-will-fini/20684208 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 According this article, the Sabres have the best chance at the CHL Championship. http://www.wgr550.co...l-fini/20684208 Highly enlightening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabresFuture Posted January 12, 2015 Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 While we took care of our games, it wasn't the greatest weekend for us in the CHL. This week is another crucial one for the top 3 teams: The Sabres play Detroit, Minnesota, and Philadelphia. We will be well rested with the Hasek ceremony also taking place on Tuesday. Jimmy Howard was injured over the weekend so they will be starting one of their backups. Our talent level is still so far inferior right now, especially with our injuries, so hopefully we can get a win. Minnesota's goal-tending has been atrocious, but they desperately need some losses. As for Philadelphia, they're a mess right now too. Hopefully they can score just enough to lose to us this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 12, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 12, 2015 I like the additional info in the standings sheet, but it formats horribly on mobile devices. I guess I can probably say that, as it stands now, Tank was right about the wildcard slots; there's no way this team vies for 9/8/7 (in the NHL). What's left is to figure out where they'll land in the CHL. I like the additional info in the standings sheet, but it formats horribly on mobile devices. I guess I can probably say that, as it stands now, Tank was right about the wildcard slots; there's no way this team vies for 9/8/7 (in the NHL). What's left is to figure out where they'll land in the CHL. Is the formatting issue onky in the OP, or is it in the daily updates as well? I am aware of the issue in the OP, and expected that a compromise on the wrap around issue was to leave the OP that way but only add the MPP column to the daily update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Taro T Posted January 13, 2015 Author Report Share Posted January 13, 2015 Current standings through games played 1/12. Team ----- GP - L - W - OT - PTS - MPP Edmonton 43 24 10 9 57 135 Buffalo 43 26 14 3 55 133 Carolina 42 24 13 5 53 133 New Jersey 44 21 15 8 50 126 Arizona 41 21 16 4 46 128 Philadelphia 43 19 17 7 45 123 Colorado 43 17 18 8 42 120 Ottawa 41 16 17 8 40 122 Columbus 40 19 18 3 41 125 Dallas 41 16 18 7 39 121 MPP = Maximum Possible Points 7 teams in action Tuesday night including 2 potential 1 pointers: Avs @ Candy Canes & Otters @ No Stars. If Detroit & St. Louis do their parts, Sabres could share 1st place about 4 hours after Dom's banner is raised. Worst case 4 points back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pi2000 Posted January 13, 2015 Report Share Posted January 13, 2015 IMHO, OTT and DAL are no longer CHL members. DAL is almost 20 points out of first, OTT 17 points out at the half-way mark is not realistic they can make up all that ground in 40 games. COL and CBJ are in the same boat, they're too talented and their goaltending is back to normal. The real CHL contenders at this point are PHI, ARI, NJ, CAR, BUF, and EDM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
shrader Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 IMHO, OTT and DAL are no longer CHL members. DAL is almost 20 points out of first, OTT 17 points out at the half-way mark is not realistic they can make up all that ground in 40 games. COL and CBJ are in the same boat, they're too talented and their goaltending is back to normal. The real CHL contenders at this point are PHI, ARI, NJ, CAR, BUF, and EDM. We need the extra teams to fill out the fake brackets that someone will put together during the playoffs. That could be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CallawaySabres Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Canes lose Sabes Win Yotes losing 1-0 Sabes alone in 2nd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K8prisoner Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 Looks like a two team race ..Carolina is too good with the staals . Edmonton looks committed to winning a few more if they can get one win on the road trip. They actually have undeveloped nhl talent . If they put an experienced guy like Roy that played every shift on each line the talent might actually not bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brawndo Posted January 14, 2015 Report Share Posted January 14, 2015 EDM ran into the worse team in the CHL, a win for them was inevitable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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