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Official 2015 NHL Draft Thread

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Derrico First Liner

Derrico

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Posted

This team is going nowhere next season.   Think of how bad Buffalo has been since the deadline... 2-7-1... and one of those 2 wins they were severely outplayed (BOS). 

 

Without McEichel this team is easily a bottom 2 team next season.   Talent wise, BUF is still far and away bottom of the barrel even with Kane in the lineup.    

 

It'll be a at least one more season before BUF starts their climb out of the basement. 

 

Will they tank next year?  No.  How can they get any worse?  They can't.   This is the bottom of the rebuild, and they'll improve, but even with some improvement they're still a bottom 2 team.    

 

Consider their CorsiFor % is 6.5 percentage points worse than the next worse team (37% vs 43.5%).   That next worse team is 11 percentage points worse than the top team in the league.  Bear with me here... so even if Buffalo improves their CF% by 50% of the 17 percentage point difference between them and the top team, that number improves to 37+8.5=45.5%, which would give them the 3rd worst CF% in the entire league.   And with a huge question mark in net (no Enroth or Neuvirth to ride) they should be a bottom 2 team again.

Also, if you're talking since the deadline then don't forget Girgs has been out that entire stretch.  Our four centres are literally AHL call-ups.  Girgs will be back centering a line next year.  Plus, I don't have huge expectations for Reinhart for his first season but I still think he plays all or atleast the majority of the season with the big club.  How will he fair as a rookie?  It has to be better than Phil Varone doesn't it?  Throw in a legit top 6 winger in Kane and an improved D core and there's no way they are in the bottom 2.

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pi2000 First Liner

pi2000

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Also, if you're talking since the deadline then don't forget Girgs has been out that entire stretch.  Our four centres are literally AHL call-ups.  Girgs will be back centering a line next year.  Plus, I don't have huge expectations for Reinhart for his first season but I still think he plays all or atleast the majority of the season with the big club.  How will he fair as a rookie?  It has to be better than Phil Varone doesn't it?  Throw in a legit top 6 winger in Kane and an improved D core and there's no way they are in the bottom 2.

 

I'm not saying BUF won't improve.  They will improve, they'll be better, but you're talking about an improvement for team that is statistically an order of magnitude worse than the next worse team in the league.    They'll be better, but that doesn't mean they're not still a bottom 2 team.  

 

Let me put it this way, which team(s) are you saying will be worse than BUF?   ARI with McEichel?  TOR with a new coach minus Kessel?   CAR?  CBJ?   Even with all the additions you mentioned, the Sabres will still have the least talented team in the league.    

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Take last night's team and put Girgs, Kane, Bogo, Gorges, Pysyk and Reinhart in for Ellis, Dalpe, Mesz, Strachan, Benoit and Varone

Add new coach and a solid free agent or two? We should be better for sure.

Absolutely. I expect an entertaining bottom-10 finish (assuming McEichel). Maybe that doesn't sound like much, but a 25 point improvement really is huge. And again, the biggest thing is it should he fun to watch regularly.

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Derrico First Liner

Derrico

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I'm not saying BUF won't improve.  They will improve, they'll be better, but you're talking about an improvement for team that is statistically an order of magnitude worse than the next worse team in the league.    They'll be better, but that doesn't mean they're not still a bottom 2 team.  

 

Let me put it this way, which team(s) are you saying will be worse than BUF?   ARI with McEichel?  TOR with a new coach minus Kessel?   CAR?  CBJ?   Even with all the additions you mentioned, the Sabres will still have the least talented team in the league.    

It's tough to say who will be the teams below Buffalo next season as I didn't expect a team like CBJ to be bottom 5 or 6 in the league this year.  But as mentioned above, and assuming a coaching change, there is no way we will be bottom 2.  I believe somewhat in the Corsi matrix but prior to this year, didn't the 2014/2015 leafs have the worst Corsi rating?  They finished 5th or 6th last.  It takes a special kind of suck to finish bottom 2 (as we all know) and I can't see us adding all of those players, adding a competent coach and still finishing there.

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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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I'm expecting not-bottom-five (20ish point improvement). I'm hoping for just above bottom ten (30ish point improvement).

 

The challenge is that it's an improvement in goal differential by +70 to +100. And that's a ###### lot.

Well, having the puck more than 1/3 of the time should help that tremendously.

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IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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Well, having the puck more than 1/3 of the time should help that tremendously.

Troof.  We probably only need to average 5-6 shots for more per game (+21-26%)and reduce shots against by 3-6 shots per game (-8-17%).  I think that could be accomplished with a healthy defense corps of Bogo, Gorges, Pysyk, Risto, Zad, Weber, and McCabe, a healthy Zemgus, and the addition of three more 20+ goal scorers, one of which could be McEichel or a (re-)emergence of any of the following: CoHo, Foligno, Larsson, Reinhart.


 

And I seriously don't understand how this is still a close race in the standings.  Goaltending?  Maybe it's goaltending.

Edited by IKnowPhysics
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TrueBlueGED Hall of Famer

TrueBlueGED

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Troof. We probably only need to average 5-6 shots for more per game (+21-26%)and reduce shots against by 3-6 shots per game (-8-17%). I think that could be accomplished with a healthy defense corps of Bogo, Gorges, Pysyk, Risto, Zad, Weber, and McCabe, a healthy Zemgus, and the addition of three more 20+ goal scorers, one of which could be McEichel or a (re-)emergence of any of the following: CoHo, Foligno, Larsson, Reinhart.

 

 

And I seriously don't understand how this is still a close race in the standings. Goaltending? Maybe it's goaltending.

I think it's close because the Yotes current roster is completely devoid of any forward capable of scoring goals. They have the puck but have zero finishing ability. If Hanzal and Boedker weren't shelved for the year, I think we'd already be popping the champagne. Alternatively, if Mike Smith weren't hot garbage before their roster got shredded by injuries and trades, we'd pop the champagne that way too. Their season events have just lines up perfectly to tank.

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dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

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I'm not saying BUF won't improve.  They will improve, they'll be better, but you're talking about an improvement for team that is statistically an order of magnitude worse than the next worse team in the league.    They'll be better, but that doesn't mean they're not still a bottom 2 team.  

 

Let me put it this way, which team(s) are you saying will be worse than BUF?   ARI with McEichel?  TOR with a new coach minus Kessel?   CAR?  CBJ?   Even with all the additions you mentioned, the Sabres will still have the least talented team in the league.    

 

And yet everyone is ready to concede 30th to a team that didn't start tanking until February.

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ddaryl Fourth Liner

ddaryl

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Posted

Take last night's team and put Girgs, Kane, Bogo, Gorges, Pysyk and Reinhart in for Ellis, Dalpe, Mesz, Strachan, Benoit and Varone

Add new coach and a solid free agent or two? We should be better for sure.

 

 

That thought gives me a warm fuzzy feeling

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IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

Posted
Posted (edited)

Craig Button on Eichel: "he's the best player in NCAA hockey right now."

 

 

Jack Eichel (Boston University – 2015 NHL Draft, Hobey Baker Finalist)

 

Eichel is the third player in Hockey East history to be named Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year in the same season, joining Brian Leetch and Paul Kariya. He leads the nation in scoring and as the fourth youngest player in NCAA hockey this season, it's an unprecedented feat. His blend of power, skill, smarts and determination allows him to make a material impact on the game. And that impact was felt by the Terriers with his arrival on campus as they became one of the nation's very best teams. The 2015 draft has been highly-anticipated because of Eichel and Connor McDavid - two generational players. And there's no doubt - he's the best player in NCAA hockey right now.

 

 

 

McDavid Consensus Top Pick in NHL.com Mock Drafts

 

McDavid is viewed by many scouts as the best draft-age prospect since Sidney Crosby in 2005. Despite playing about 20 fewer games than most of the scoring leaders in the OHL, McDavid finished third in scoring with 120 points and tied for fourth with 44 goals.

 

Both mock drafts feature the same player going second, Boston University freshman center Jack Eichel. The 6-foot-2, 196-pound forward dominated NCAA hockey, leading all players in scoring at an average of 1.83 points per game.

McDavid and Eichel are Nos. 1 and 2, respectively, in NHL Central Scouting's midterm ranking of the top North American skaters for the 2015 draft.

 

"During the [Central Scouting midterm] meetings there were no negative components brought forward on Eichel or McDavid since both are recognized as truly outstanding, gifted young hockey players," Director of NHL Central Scouting Dan Marr said. "They play different styles, yet both bring the exceptional skills, character and intangibles to be a franchise-type player for an NHL club."

Edited by IKnowPhysics
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3putt First Liner

3putt

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Everyone seems to be of a consensus that nobody would trade the #1pick. That has a lot to do with one's impression of the gap between McDavid and Eichel. But what if...the Sabres have the 1 and the Yotes have the 2, would you entertain the Yotes 2015 1st, 2016 1st, Oliver Ekman Larson, Max Domi, Brendan Perlini for our 2015 1st and the Isles 2015 second? That may be hefty price, but for the sake of argument assume the Yotes would pay. Would you do it?

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Sabres Fan in NS Hall of Famer

Sabres Fan in NS

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Everyone seems to be of a consensus that nobody would trade the #1pick. That has a lot to do with one's impression of the gap between McDavid and Eichel. But what if...the Sabres have the 1 and the Yotes have the 2, would you entertain the Yotes 2015 1st, 2016 1st, Oliver Ekman Larson, Max Domi, Brendan Perlini for our 2015 1st and the Isles 2015 second? That may be hefty price, but for the sake of argument assume the Yotes would pay. Would you do it?

 

Absolutely, but the Coyotes, IMO, would never make that deal.

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IKnowPhysics First Liner

IKnowPhysics

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Everyone seems to be of a consensus that nobody would trade the #1pick. That has a lot to do with one's impression of the gap between McDavid and Eichel. But what if...the Sabres have the 1 and the Yotes have the 2, would you entertain the Yotes 2015 1st, 2016 1st, Oliver Ekman Larson, Max Domi, Brendan Perlini for our 2015 1st and the Isles 2015 second? That may be hefty price, but for the sake of argument assume the Yotes would pay. Would you do it?

 

That's insanity.  But I'd do it.  It's not even close.

 

It'd be:

Buffalo gets: the next Mike Modano, OEL, Domi, Perlini, and the Yotes 2016 1st

Yotes get: the next Sidney Crosby, and a low 2nd.

 

The difference between McDavid and Eichel is not big enough to envelope even OEL (that's how good OEL is), let alone OEL plus what will assuredly be a top-ten (possibly even a top-three) 2016 pick. Then toss on Domi and Perlini.

 

But if that deal is made, Buffalo is launched into contention within two years.  The back end with OEL, Bogo, Risto, Zad, Pysyk, Gorges, and McCabe is bonkers (three top ten overall picks, two mid 1st rounders, one should-have-been late first rounder).  You draft a skilled winger in '16, make a move for a goalie (Gorges?), and then you have this crazy young, crazy skilled team with an improvement in net.  Give them one or two battle-hardened seasons, and they're a top-four team.

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