Power and Mittelstadt Extensions Next?

[Porous Five Hole]

Just now, Taro T said:

In time, sure.  But they are trying to make the playoffs this coming year.   Any sophomore slump from Frick or Frack or Greenway not fitting in and the F cupboard starts getting thin if Mittelstadt is gone.

They can get that top 4 D-man via FA.  IF they can convert him into something really good on D or in net that they can't get otherwise; fine.  But they already are likely moving on from a 28 goal scorer.  Not sure that it makes sense to move on from a guy that got upper 50's last year along with him.

This is totally reasonable. Maybe I’ve deviated from my point in conversations  and what I perceived to be the point of the thread…which is an extension for Casey. That is what I am against at this time.
But happy to have him in the lineup next year if he doesn’t need to be used to get a good D on this squad. 

[Doohickie]

Just now, Porous Five Hole said:

This is totally reasonable. Maybe I’ve deviated from my point in conversations  and what I perceived to be the point of the thread…which is an extension for Casey. That is what I am against at this time.
But happy to have him in the lineup next year if he doesn’t need to be used to get a good D on this squad. 

If Kevyn can get Casey on a team friendly deal now, go for it.  Even if he's not sure he wants to keep him.  If he's on a good contract, he'll make a good trading chip.

My gut feel is that he will play whatever role he is given, and has the talent to play up and down the lineup, which will make him very valuable to Kevyn's system.  Why move him?

In two or three years if Savoie or Kulich is crowding him out, then yeah, move him.  But even then I don't think they will be bringing what Casey brings.

[Porous Five Hole]

1 minute ago, Doohickie said:

If Kevyn can get Casey on a team friendly deal now, go for it.  Even if he's not sure he wants to keep him.  If he's on a good contract, he'll make a good trading chip.

My gut feel is that he will play whatever role he is given, and has the talent to play up and down the lineup, which will make him very valuable to Kevyn's system.  Why move him?

In two or three years if Savoie or Kulich is crowding him out, then yeah, move him.  But even then I don't think they will be bringing what Casey brings.

It’ll be interesting to see the @dudacek
preseason poll on what Sabres fans expect of Casey—and what his production will turn out to be. Since he is an RFA after this upcoming season, I hope the Sabres slow play this one. And with that, I’m off to my poker app 😀

[nfreeman]

I've been a Mitts skeptic as long as the next guy, but I'm OK with a reasonably priced extension.  The coaches and management extol his work ethic and his teammates love him.  He gets a bit better every year.  I don't expect him to be the 5th-best forward next year, as I think Quinn and perhaps JJP will surpass him, but if he's your 7th-best forward, you have a really GD good offense.  And as others have said he fits pretty much anywhere in the top 9.  I am totally fine with a 3rd line next year of Mitts-Krebs-Kulich.

$5MM x 5 years is too rich for my blood for him.  I'd be fine with $4.25MM x 4 years though.  And they should only trade him if there is a really good player coming back.

 

[MattPie]

10 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

I did count his last three seasons. He was a 40 pt player for two of the three. I think I’m good here. 🍻

At 40 points this year, he'd be around 160th in forwards. On average, that's 5th of 6th best on a team (160/32). If he'll sign something about $5M/yr you do it; having 2nd line production on your 3rd line is how good teams work. And that's 40 points, not the 59 points he actually scored this season which puts him coincidentally #59 in points. That is solidly 1st line (!!!). Now, if he was playing like a floaty winger (ahem, VO) maybe you don't, but he's also playing a solid all-around game.

Edited June 13, 2023 by MattPie
Run-on sentence

[kas23]

10 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

This is totally reasonable. Maybe I’ve deviated from my point in conversations  and what I perceived to be the point of the thread…which is an extension for Casey. That is what I am against at this time.
But happy to have him in the lineup next year if he doesn’t need to be used to get a good D on this squad. 

I actually agree with your hesitancy. People point out he was injured in 21-22, which is why he was forgettable. However, he replicated this same forgettable performance in the first half of 22-23. So, was it really the injury that derailed his 21-22 season? It’s probably part of it, but it’s certainly not the only reason. 
 

That said, I think if we subtracted Mitts from last season and replaced him with a top 4 D, I still don’t think we would’ve made the playoffs. While a top 4 D would’ve been nice, Mitts single-handedly won us a bunch of games down the stretch. We would’ve been toast without him during the final 30 games, especially when Tage was injured. 

[Zamboni]

I would like to see Power with a 7 or 8 year extension.
And Mitts with a 3 year extension. Revisit Mitts in 3 years. 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, kas23 said:

We would’ve been toast without him during the final 30 games, especially when Tage was injured. 

This is a key point and why I wouldn't hesitate with a healthy contract for Mitts.  Perhaps based on his stats he doesn't quite command $5.5 million (or whatever).  But in terms of being able to step up when called upon?  Priceless.  The team needs players like that and I would say the two players that stepped up into the breech big time the last couple years have been Tage and Mitts, ironically each filling in when the other was injured.

[Doohickie]

41 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

I would like to see Power with a 7 or 8 year extension.
And Mitts with a 3 year extension. Revisit Mitts in 3 years. 

Agree on Power, but Power may prefer a bridge deal to get a better deal in a few years.

I think 3 years is the minimum I want to see with Mitts, with probalby 5 as the max.  If they can get him at a good AAV he will be much more valuable to the team in three years if he still has two left on his contract, and I mean that whether they want to keep him or trade him at that point.  (I would hope the current Amerks stars are contributing at a level similar to Mitts in probably 2-3 years.)

[Curt]

21 hours ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Hopefully a top 4 D on the open market!
 

A lot of people are putting a lot of faith in Casey’s last 50 games like it is his new baseline. I’m not ready to do that. 

If you had to predict, what would you guess for Mitts point production next next season?  Assuming no major changes to the forward group and a mostly healthy season for Casey.

Im not actually advocating for signing him to a big extension this offseason, I think it may be better to wait.  I just think he is pretty important part of the forward group right now.

[Buffalonill]

9 minutes ago, Curt said:

If you had to predict, what would you guess for Mitts point production next next season?  Assuming no major changes to the forward group and a mostly healthy season for Casey.

Im not actually advocating for signing him to a big extension this offseason, I think it may be better to wait.  I just think he is pretty important part of the forward group right now.

45 points 

[Scottysabres]

5 hours ago, Zamboni said:

I would like to see Power with a 7 or 8 year extension.
And Mitts with a 3 year extension. Revisit Mitts in 3 years. 

I believe it's highly unlikely your going to see Power on a 7 or 8 year extension. His agent has to know a 1 to 3 yr deal post ELC sets Power up for a fat long term deal from 23 to 25 yrs old on up. Just my hunch.

[Carmel Corn]

5 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Agree on Power, but Power may prefer a bridge deal to get a better deal in a few years.

I think 3 years is the minimum I want to see with Mitts, with probalby 5 as the max.  If they can get him at a good AAV he will be much more valuable to the team in three years if he still has two left on his contract, and I mean that whether they want to keep him or trade him at that point.  (I would hope the current Amerks stars are contributing at a level similar to Mitts in probably 2-3 years.)

 

1 minute ago, Scottysabres said:

I believe it's highly unlikely your going to see Power on a 7 or 8 year extension. His agent has to know a 1 to 3 yr deal post ELC sets Power up for a fat long term deal from 23 to 25 yrs old on up. Just my hunch.

Agree on the liklihood Power will want a bridge deal.  With that said, what do we think is a reasonable average per year amount to try and convince him to do 8 years?  IMHO - less that $8 million will not be enough and therefore are we supportive of something more like $9 to $10, which is what I think it would take.

[Scottysabres]

Just now, Carmel Corn said:

 

Agree on the liklihood Power will want a bridge deal.  With that said, what do we think is a reasonable average per year amount to try and convince him to do 8 years?  IMHO - less that $8 million will not be enough and therefore are we supportive of something more like $9 to $10, which is what I think it would take.

I believe he'll want Dahlin money.

[Zamboni]

Say, right now…. Power wants to sign an 8 year deal at 8.5 mil with a full NTC/NMC. Say he wants the guaranteed money for as long as the CBA allows. That would take him to 28 years old.

IF you were KA, would you?

[French Collection]

30 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

I believe he'll want Dahlin money.

He’ll never put up Dahlin numbers without taking over PP1.

[Scottysabres]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

Say, right now…. Power wants to sign an 8 year deal at 8.5 mil with a full NTC/NMC. Say he wants the guaranteed money for as long as the CBA allows. That would take him to 28 years old.

IF you were KA, would you?

At 8.5? Yes

1 hour ago, French Collection said:

He’ll never put up Dahlin numbers without taking over PP1.

He's a 1st OA pick that looks every bit the part. Power is going to continue to grow in to that frame of his, he's going to be a force on the back end imho.

[French Collection]

2 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

At 8.5? Yes

He's a 1st OA pick that looks every bit the part. Power is going to continue to grow in to that frame of his, he's going to be a force on the back end imho.

I’m just trying to suppress his cap hit. With Dahlin getting a point per game, his top end might be 60 pts.

[Scottysabres]

Just now, French Collection said:

I’m just trying to suppress his cap hit. With Dahlin getting a point per game, his top end might be 60 pts.

Power is just getting started, I don't see him as complete of an offensive d man as Dahlin, close, but not complete. What I do see is a beast both in the D zone and the transition game. I saw Power grow as the season progressed in protecting the puck, puck control and the transition game. His positioning and coverage in the D zone improved as well. He still had the occasional gaffe as all youngsters will, but I was impressed over all.

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

If you had to predict, what would you guess for Mitts point production next next season?  Assuming no major changes to the forward group and a mostly healthy season for Casey.

Im not actually advocating for signing him to a big extension this offseason, I think it may be better to wait.  I just think he is pretty important part of the forward group right now.

Presuming your Q was open to all, would say most likely he hits 55.  But if he's getting 2nd line usage (with actual 2nd line linemates, not the ones he spent most of October with) wouldn't be at all surprised to see 65.

Personally expect to see him get 5 years x $5.5 and there being a great outcry when that contract is announced.

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Scottysabres said:

I believe it's highly unlikely your going to see Power on a 7 or 8 year extension. His agent has to know a 1 to 3 yr deal post ELC sets Power up for a fat long term deal from 23 to 25 yrs old on up. Just my hunch.

You may be right but I’m not sure if really will make that much difference to him from a financial standpoint.  I really don’t think he will earn Dahlin $ of $10M+, because he isn’t going to play PP1 and put up those same point totals.

Let’s do the math.

 

A 2 x $6M bridge = $12M

Followed by 8 x $10M = $80M

= $92M over 10 years

 

A 8 x $8M deal = $64M

Followed by something like 6 x $12M (but only counting the first 2 seasons) = $24M

= $88M over 10 years

 

Thats about how I see it working out.  If he signs a bridge, he might make a few $M more over the next 10 years, but if he signs long term now, he will get more money sooner, and it’s always better to get the money sooner because you can invest it and get that compounding interest going sooner, so I see it as pretty much a wash.  Plus, just the security of locking that contract in right away is really worth something in terms of piece of mind and financial certainty.

I would say that he actually makes out better by taking a long term deal now.

You could quibble with the numbers I used above, but I doubt they are off by much.  Does anyone really think that 2 years from now Power will be able to command a contract bigger that 8 x $10M?  I’d be shocked if he was able to get even that much.

Edited June 13, 2023 by Curt

[Broken Ankles]

2 hours ago, Curt said:

You may be right but I’m not sure if really will make that much difference to him from a financial standpoint.  I really don’t think he will earn Dahlin $ of $10M+, because he isn’t going to play PP1 and put up those same point totals.

Let’s do the math.

 

A 2 x $6M bridge = $12M

Followed by 8 x $10M = $80M

= $92M over 10 years

 

A 8 x $8M deal = $64M

Followed by something like 6 x $12M (but only counting the first 2 seasons) = $24M

= $88M over 10 years

 

Thats about how I see it working out.  If he signs a bridge, he might make a few $M more over the next 10 years, but if he signs long term now, he will get more money sooner, and it’s always better to get the money sooner because you can invest it and get that compounding interest going sooner, so I see it as pretty much a wash.  Plus, just the security of locking that contract in right away is really worth something in terms of piece of mind and financial certainty.

I would say that he actually makes out better by taking a long term deal now.

You could quibble with the numbers I used above, but I doubt they are off by much.  Does anyone really think that 2 years from now Power will be able to command a contract bigger that 8 x $10M?  I’d be shocked if he was able to get even that much.

The bold, it’s our only leverage. If he signs a 3 year bridge like Dahlin did, based as some insiders cap estimates of ~$100m+ in 2027, a 12% of the cap total would yield at least $12m for his next deal.  I advocate  $8m *8 after July 1st.  

[Porous Five Hole]

6 hours ago, Curt said:

If you had to predict, what would you guess for Mitts point production next next season?  Assuming no major changes to the forward group and a mostly healthy season for Casey.

Im not actually advocating for signing him to a big extension this offseason, I think it may be better to wait.  I just think he is pretty important part of the forward group right now.

Good question.  For me, it’s more that I don’t want to spend 5MM on a guy whose anticipated production is replaceable for the back-half of his next contact (I believe in Krebs, I believe in Kulich, and I have high hopes for Savoie). If the Sabres extended Casey for four years after this upcoming season, I would be disappointed.

To answer your question, I have zero feel for what to expect from him next year. Real talk: He is better than any internal option at this time. But that’s not always how GM’s evaluate a player. There’s a longer timeline in mind. 

This thread was about an extension for Casey, and I’m not ready to assume his 2023 is the baseline of what to expect.  So no extension please. 

[SwampD]

On 6/12/2023 at 10:37 PM, nfreeman said:

I've been a Mitts skeptic as long as the next guy, but I'm OK with a reasonably priced extension.  The coaches and management extol his work ethic and his teammates love him.  He gets a bit better every year.  I don't expect him to be the 5th-best forward next year, as I think Quinn and perhaps JJP will surpass him, but if he's your 7th-best forward, you have a really GD good offense.  And as others have said he fits pretty much anywhere in the top 9.  I am totally fine with a 3rd line next year of Mitts-Krebs-Kulich.

$5MM x 5 years is too rich for my blood for him.  I'd be fine with $4.25MM x 4 years though.  And they should only trade him if there is a really good player coming back.

 

I think that that would end up being a great deal for the Sabres.

[Curt]

5 hours ago, Broken Ankles said:

The bold, it’s our only leverage. If he signs a 3 year bridge like Dahlin did, based as some insiders cap estimates of ~$100m+ in 2027, a 12% of the cap total would yield at least $12m for his next deal.  I advocate  $8m *8 after July 1st.  

The cap is projected to take a couple large jumps in coming years, but I doubt that it reaches 100M by 2027.

Even if it did, Power would basically need to have established himself as no doubt one of the top 5 Defensemen in the NHL in order to get a 12% cap hit type of contract.  There are currently only 3 Defensemen who have contracts with 12% cap hit at the time of signing.

The situation you lay out is like a 1% probability type of scenario.