Sabres are tied for 2nd in the NHL in Goals For

[7+6=13]

44 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

and now you know why I have been arguing for weeks (actually months) for KA to step up and try to fix the defense.  We have cap space, picks, prospects and an excess of NHL forwards to get a deal done.  I know he wants to stick to the plan, but it's time to find help for the struggling defense.  

The defense and goaltending will get addressed and you know it.  You keep posting the same thoughts and everyone agrees these are the two areas most critical to be fixed.

 

Trades this time of year are not common.  The player(s) to acquire must present themselves.  KA can't fix everything in 2 years.  I appreciate is methodical approach. 

[K-9]

41 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

What are you smoking?  That line is actually pretty good at defending.

 

Sure, order some from Amazon, it will arrive in 3-5 days.  It's that easy, right?

Over the last half dozen games or so, their defense has generated much of their offense. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

11 minutes ago, 7+6=13 said:

The defense and goaltending will get addressed and you know it.  You keep posting the same thoughts and everyone agrees these are the two areas most critical to be fixed.

 

Trades this time of year are not common.  The player(s) to acquire must present themselves.  KA can't fix everything in 2 years.  I appreciate is methodical approach. 

No, but they aren't uncommon either.  What does the underlined even mean?  yes, KA could have brought in better depth on D and better goaltending.  Two years and 20+ mill cap space a year is plenty of time to bring in better players than Butcher, Hagg, Pysyk, Comrie, Anderson, Subban, Dell, Pilut etc...  These also have been obvious areas of need of the 3 off-seasons KA has been in charge.

Edited December 6, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[Thorny]

48 minutes ago, Toilet_Mop said:

Who said it was easy 

When choosing-your-own-board-adventure, if you find you’ve reached the common “what could Kevyn Adams have even done?” brick-wall ending, you need to start over 

😉

- - - 

Kevyn Adams has done a promising job thus far in my estimation: full stop.

I think the distinction you’ll find at large is that it’s supposed he simply *could not* have done a better one. I don’t think there’s an environment present here that facilitates discussion on those topics: you’ll either get the “you are just one of those fans that can’t see the bigger picture” refrain or the altogether more common favourite designation of being a whiner who just wants to complain and focus on the negative (like the “you’ll just shift to saying playoffs isn’t enough once we make it!” talking points being dished at @PerreaultForeverin the other thread.) If the perception is that we are on the right track, any deviation from what we’ve actually seen Adams do is dismissed/can be dismissed on its face under the basis of “couldn’t have been wise as then it would have been in the plan”. I don’t believe the position that you can take issue with individual aspects of the plan while still having an appreciation for the overall totality of it is considered an allowable one.

Edited December 6, 2022 by Thorny

[JoeSchmoe]

Adams' good as far outweighed his bad, but I think most of us saw his one mistake coming a mile away.

That mistake was that UPL should NOT have been counted on as the #3 goalie in the organization... He still hasn't had just an average season in the AHL let alone a good one. UPL was not a good plan with a 41 year old in as the #2... Strangely, it was our #1 going down that got him in the NHL lineup, which is even worse, since Anderson's seemingly too frail to be shouldering the load.

He had he gotten a proven AHL vet like Tokarski back as the #3, we'd likely have another 2 wins right now, and UPL would have had to fight tooth and nail for his NHL existence, rather than looking like the sloppy mess he's been so far.

Maybe someone with more time on their hands than me can suggest a trade to Adams that brings us in a reliable NHL netminder, while sticking to our long term vision. I know many won't agree, but I'd personally even be willing to part with Levi at this point (given he's still a crapshoot), if him and maybe another pick could bring us in some proven long term help in net.

[Refuting]

21 minutes ago, JoeSchmoe said:

Adams' good as far outweighed his bad, but I think most of us saw his one mistake coming a mile away.

 

That mistake was that UPL should NOT have been counted on as the #3 goalie in the organization... He still hasn't had just an average season in the AHL let alone a good one. UPL was not a good plan with a 41 year old in as the #2... Strangely, it was our #1 going down that got him in the NHL lineup, which is even worse, since Anderson's seemingly too frail to be shouldering the load.

 

He had he gotten a proven AHL vet like Tokarski back as the #3, we'd likely have another 2 wins right now, and UPL would have had to fight tooth and nail for his NHL existence, rather than looking like the sloppy mess he's been so far.

 

Maybe someone with more time on their hands than me can suggest a trade to Adams that brings us in a reliable NHL netminder, while sticking to our long term vision. I know many won't agree, but I'd personally even be willing to part with Levi at this point (given he's still a crapshoot), if him and maybe another pick could bring us in some proven long term help in net.

 

 

Lol

[7+6=13]

58 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

No, but they aren't uncommon either.  What does the underlined even mean?  yes, KA could have brought in better depth on D and better goaltending.  Two years and 20+ mill cap space a year is plenty of time to bring in better players than Butcher, Hagg, Pysyk, Comrie, Anderson, Subban, Dell, Pilut etc...  These also have been obvious areas of need of the 3 off-seasons KA has been in charge.

We disagree that it should have been done already.  I guess you're only left with that KA either sucks at his job or doesn't care about winning.   I don't believe everything should have already been addressed.  IMO, that would be the wrong approach. 

[LGR4GM]

3 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Player and organizations philosophy based.

We all know the Sabres want to play the young guys.  They SHOULD get better but will make mistakes along the way.  Krebs, Peterka, Quinn, and even Cozens haven't bee the greatest in their own end.  That should get better as times goes on.   Just have those forwards get better in their own zone, keep the D-unit a bit healthier and get a little better goaltending, and that moves them up the rankings.  Those 3 things are the low hanging fruit.

These guys also need to get used to each other for D-zone coverage. The list of players currently playing on this team that haven't even played a full season (82 games) over the past 2 years is pretty long:  Tuch, Hinestroza, Mitts, Krebs, Jokiharju, Quinn, Peterka, Power, Samuelsson, Fitz, Jost, Pilut, Lyubushkin......all of those guys, through injury or being new, haven't even played 82 games of the 100+ possible games between this year and last.

 

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

Obviously whatever you are smoking makes you not remember anything beyond the last game or two.

I have chronicled over and over, referencing exact plays and actual replays of goals allowed this year, the mistakes they are making.

SEVERAL goals have been scored against the Sabres because Cozens doesn't play his position in his own end, instead chasing the puck.  Multiple goals and chance after chance occur he leaves the slot/anywere in the center of the ice to chase the puck into the corner (where other Sabres players already are) only to have the puck come back to the place he vacated where a great shot (and sometimes a goal) is scored.  This is his main weakness now.

As for Peterka and Quinn, they aren't out of position as much as Cozens, but they too have had chances and goals allowed vs the Sabres due to their losing battles on the board or turnovers. 

The line is playing better now, but over the course of this entire year, all 3 players have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against.  

Just because something doesn't fit your narrative, its a bit childish to ask somoeon "what they are smoking" when the facts are there to support THEIR (not your) point of view.

I'm sorry but no. The Cozens line is one of the best in the entire league at tilting the ice in favor of the Sabres. You wrote +/- but then ignore Quinn, jjp, and Cozens are all in the top 10 on this team in that stat.

We aren't losing because that line isn't defensively around. In fact they are shockingly good at shot suppression and some exits.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, mjd1001 said:

The line is playing better now, but over the course of this entire year, all 3 players have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against.  

Just because something doesn't fit your narrative, its a bit childish to ask somoeon "what they are smoking" when the facts are there to support THEIR (not your) point of view.

This is just objectively false. Like stats, eye test, old testament, casting dice, divining the stars or with any other method it's wrong. 

Edited December 7, 2022 by LGR4GM

[Taro T]

6 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

 

I'm sorry but no. The Cozens line is one of the best in the entire league at tilting the ice in favor of the Sabres. You wrote +/- but then ignore Quinn, jjp, and Cozens are all in the top 10 on this team in that stat.

We aren't losing because that line isn't defensively around. In fact they are shockingly good at shot suppression and some exits.

That line, for about the last 6 games has been scoring at a ridiculous rate.  They have also been out for a fair # of goals against this season.  Thing is, the ridiculous rate of scoring is greater than the # of goals they've been out for going the other way.  It's a good thing.

Both takes can be accurate.  They do tilt the ice, which is awesome.  But their aggressive style also results in goals against; both off the rush or pursuing the puck hard in the D-zone.  They are a very high event line.  And fortunately there is more good high event than bad high event.

It's going to be interesting to see whether the high events start tilting in the other direction as other teams put their top line out against them more rather than treating them like the 3rd line like they had been for most of the season.  

But they're doing exactly what is being asked of them right now.  They're being asked to look for more creative ways to attack & with that will not only come more highlight reel goals, but also some goals going the other way.  And they could be the biggest winners when the goaltending does get good (maybe if WE'RE lucky w/ Comrie's return) as their firewagon attack will give up even fewer goals with an oopsie because the goalie will be able to stop high danger chances.

As for their plus minuses being good, yeah, they've been out for a lot of points for and the vast majority of them have been at 5v5 or even SH.  They're scoring a lot.  They also give up a fair amount.  But a lot is more than a fair amount.  Thus a positive +/-.

[JoeSchmoe]

1 hour ago, Toilet_Mop said:

Lol

Is Tokarski (or someone like him) really that funny as a #3? Or did you confuse my 3 with a 1 or 2?

[Refuting]

All our goalies are laughable right now 

 

 

[Porous Five Hole]

They have to fix the PK. It is sixth worst in the league.  

[Digger]

There's been some great highlight goals this season for sure.  That's great.

Like many I have been critical of Adams for not acquiring a proven goaltender.  That being said I don't think this is our only problem as the defense is pretty weak on many of the goals against too.  Lots of games where you have a "big sigh" on the play.  Seems like another year of "pure development" and "wait until next year" to see how good we will be.  That feels okay with players like Quinn, Peterka, and Power who are contributing but not so much with Bryson, Fitzgerald, and UPL where we should have been able to do better without breaking the bank (or development plan).  Let them continue developing in Rochester.

[Taro T]

53 minutes ago, Porous Five Hole said:

They have to fix the PK. It is sixth worst in the league.  

Your best PKer is your goalie.  Just sayin'.

27 minutes ago, Digger said:

There's been some great highlight goals this season for sure.  That's great.

Like many I have been critical of Adams for not acquiring a proven goaltender.  That being said I don't think this is our only problem as the defense is pretty weak on many of the goals against too.  Lots of games where you have a "big sigh" on the play.  Seems like another year of "pure development" and "wait until next year" to see how good we will be.  That feels okay with players like Quinn, Peterka, and Power who are contributing but not so much with Bryson, Fitzgerald, and UPL where we should have been able to do better without breaking the bank (or development plan).  Let them continue developing in Rochester.

Yeah, the defensive zone play leaves a bit to be desired fairly often.  But 2 of the lines & 1 of the D pairings are "getting" the offensive ideas & really one of the other lines & both of the D pairings seem to get them as well, just not with the same kind of success (& when you look at the players in that mix really only Power & Okposo would be expected to be scoring at a level remotely like their teammates).

Would hope that Granato isn't waiting for every skater to fully get the O under their command before focusing some on the D.  Which would have that part of the game getting worked on sooner than later.

[nfreeman]

4 hours ago, Thorny said:

When choosing-your-own-board-adventure, if you find you’ve reached the common “what could Kevyn Adams have even done?” brick-wall ending, you need to start over 

😉

- - - 

Kevyn Adams has done a promising job thus far in my estimation: full stop.

I think the distinction you’ll find at large is that it’s supposed he simply *could not* have done a better one. I don’t think there’s an environment present here that facilitates discussion on those topics: you’ll either get the “you are just one of those fans that can’t see the bigger picture” refrain or the altogether more common favourite designation of being a whiner who just wants to complain and focus on the negative (like the “you’ll just shift to saying playoffs isn’t enough once we make it!” talking points being dished at @PerreaultForeverin the other thread.) If the perception is that we are on the right track, any deviation from what we’ve actually seen Adams do is dismissed/can be dismissed on its face under the basis of “couldn’t have been wise as then it would have been in the plan”. I don’t believe the position that you can take issue with individual aspects of the plan while still having an appreciation for the overall totality of it is considered an allowable one.

Well, it's a message board.  People disagree, and many who do so will be defending the home team, especially after a couple of wins.

But no one is being shouted down, and criticism of KA is far from prohibited. 

For that matter, I think there is quite a bit of support for calling things as they are, and plenty of recognition that the all-or-nothing perspective is flawed.  I think very few here would say that KA is batting 1.000.

Speaking only for myself, I take issue with the claims that KA has decided not to improve the team and is sitting on his hands for some unexplained reason, and that it's not difficult to get good players who want to be here.  Both of these are demonstrably false and IMHO kinda silly.  

That doesn't mean that I don't think KA is accountable for the team he ices and the results it produces, including, if Comrie isn't the guy and the goaltending stinks again, for failing to improve one of the most important spots on the roster.  He is 100% accountable. 

[PerreaultForever]

5 hours ago, Thorny said:

When choosing-your-own-board-adventure, if you find you’ve reached the common “what could Kevyn Adams have even done?” brick-wall ending, you need to start over 

😉

- - - 

Kevyn Adams has done a promising job thus far in my estimation: full stop.

I think the distinction you’ll find at large is that it’s supposed he simply *could not* have done a better one. I don’t think there’s an environment present here that facilitates discussion on those topics: you’ll either get the “you are just one of those fans that can’t see the bigger picture” refrain or the altogether more common favourite designation of being a whiner who just wants to complain and focus on the negative (like the “you’ll just shift to saying playoffs isn’t enough once we make it!” talking points being dished at @PerreaultForeverin the other thread.) If the perception is that we are on the right track, any deviation from what we’ve actually seen Adams do is dismissed/can be dismissed on its face under the basis of “couldn’t have been wise as then it would have been in the plan”. I don’t believe the position that you can take issue with individual aspects of the plan while still having an appreciation for the overall totality of it is considered an allowable one.

I don't disagree with this in general, but I have one basic issue. The usage of this term "the plan". What exactly is the plan? Is there a timeline? How long is the plan? When do you get to say it's going too slowly or alternately it's ahead of schedule? What is it measured against?

I see guesses and assertions but nowhere do I see the actual "plan". 

Most specifically, if the "plan" involves winning, how on earth can you logically say not getting a solid NHL goalie in place is a good "plan"????

[Porous Five Hole]

1 hour ago, Taro T said:

Your best PKer is your goalie.  Just sayin'.

Yeah, the defensive zone play leaves a bit to be desired fairly often.  But 2 of the lines & 1 of the D pairings are "getting" the offensive ideas & really one of the other lines & both of the D pairings seem to get them as well, just not with the same kind of success (& when you look at the players in that mix really only Power & Okposo would be expected to be scoring at a level remotely like their teammates).

Would hope that Granato isn't waiting for every skater to fully get the O under their command before focusing some on the D.  Which would have that part of the game getting worked on sooner than later.

I’m fine with your response, and I tried to come up with GA 5 on 5, but struck out. I think there’s a demonstrable difference in this team’s five on five play v PK, but I cannot produce analytical results.  

[LGR4GM]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

That line, for about the last 6 games has been scoring at a ridiculous rate.  They have also been out for a fair # of goals against this season.  Thing is, the ridiculous rate of scoring is greater than the # of goals they've been out for going the other way.  It's a good thing.

Both takes can be accurate.  They do tilt the ice, which is awesome.  But their aggressive style also results in goals against; both off the rush or pursuing the puck hard in the D-zone.  They are a very high event line.  And fortunately there is more good high event than bad high event.

It's going to be interesting to see whether the high events start tilting in the other direction as other teams put their top line out against them more rather than treating them like the 3rd line like they had been for most of the season.  

But they're doing exactly what is being asked of them right now.  They're being asked to look for more creative ways to attack & with that will not only come more highlight reel goals, but also some goals going the other way.  And they could be the biggest winners when the goaltending does get good (maybe if WE'RE lucky w/ Comrie's return) as their firewagon attack will give up even fewer goals with an oopsie because the goalie will be able to stop high danger chances.

As for their plus minuses being good, yeah, they've been out for a lot of points for and the vast majority of them have been at 5v5 or even SH.  They're scoring a lot.  They also give up a fair amount.  But a lot is more than a fair amount.  Thus a positive +/-.

Give me an hour. 

[mjd1001]

11 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

This is just objectively false. Like stats, eye test, old testament, casting dice, divining the stars or with any other method it's wrong. 

Ok, this has nothing to do with the 'eye test' in a traditional sense. You just apparently do not want to admit when you are wrong. 

Cozens is turning into a very good player but to ignore, or not even notice a flaw in is game and stick by that point so rigorously is showing you are more worried about making your point than you are about seeing what is real.

Let me spell this out for you, there are replays of goals there, and I have referenced them (go back and look at my posts, i'm not doning the work for you again)....

Here is an example of what actually HAS happened that I have spelled out:  Puck goes into the corner in the Sabres zone....Sabres D-man is there and gets to the puck first.  Other Sabres D-man is on the other side.  wingers are covering the boards up high. Coznes was in the center/slot and races down to chase the puck even though sabres have coverage there already....either a battle is lost by the D-man OR Cozens... OR the loose puck makes it way to the slot....Cozens is NOT there, an opposing player moves into that empty area and has a wide open shot that scores.

That has happened. Many times this year.  I have referenced it when it has happened (Usually in the gameday threads).  All of those goals allowed replays are available on NHL.com that shows this. Look at the examples of this where goals were scored against the sabres (not once, not twice but at least a handful of times) where this has happened and then tell me in those cases specifically why I am seeing ghosts.

  For you to come out and say it is objectively false is you just ignoring reality because reality doesn't support your case.  I can't argue/discuss this anymore with someone who's head is in the clouds about an issue just becasue it doesn't fit their narrative.  

Edited December 7, 2022 by mjd1001

[PASabreFan]

Stickler... I'd put Boston at 1 based on goals per game.

[LGR4GM]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Ok, this has nothing to do with the 'eye test' in a traditional sense. You just apparently do not want to admit when you are wrong. 

Cozens is turning into a very good player but to ignore, or not even notice a flaw in is game and stick by that point so rigorously is showing you are more worried about making your point than you are about seeing what is real.

Let me spell this out for you, there are replays of goals there, and I have referenced them (go back and look at my posts, i'm not doning the work for you again)....

Here is an example of what actually HAS happened that I have spelled out:  Puck goes into the corner in the Sabres zone....Sabres D-man is there and gets to the puck first.  Other Sabres D-man is on the other side.  wingers are covering the boards up high. Coznes was in the center/slot and races down to chase the puck even though sabres have coverage there already....either a battle is lost by the D-man OR Cozens... OR the loose puck makes it way to the slot....Cozens is NOT there, an opposing player moves into that empty area and has a wide open shot that scores.

That has happened. Many times this year.  I have referenced it when it has happened (Usually in the gameday threads).  All of those goals allowed replays are available on NHL.com that shows this. Look at the examples of this where goals were scored against the sabres (not once, not twice but at least a handful of times) where this has happened and then tell me in those cases specifically why I am seeing ghosts.

  For you to come out and say it is objectively false is you just ignoring reality because reality doesn't support your case.  I can't argue/discuss this anymore with someone who's head is in the clouds about an issue just becasue it doesn't fit their narrative.  

Here is your claim "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against."

So since I am "more worried about making your point than you are about seeing what is real" and "You just apparently do not want to admit when you are wrong" and " is you just ignoring reality because reality doesn't support your case.  I can't argue/discuss this anymore with someone who's head is in the clouds about an issue just because it doesn't fit their narrative" let us examine your claim. 

There are several ways to do this but let's start easy. All numbers are courtesy of natural stat trick or elite prospects. 

First let us take a look at the list of goals against in all situations for the Sabres. Cozens actually is at the top of that list (you are right! huzzah) with 34ga in all situations. Peterka is 11th with 18ga. Now Jack Quinn wrecks the "all 3 most other" point because he sits at 19th with 11ga. This is out of 21 qualifying players who have played 10 or more games. 

Second let us take the raw numbers and put them in context because GA is one metric but GF is the other and players with more toi will likely have a few more goals against. These numbers are for all situations so every second of ice time regardless of PP/EV/PK To do this we get a percentage of gf%. Jack Quinn is 2nd on the team with a 67.65%. JJP is 6th with a 58.14%. Cozens is 10th with a 52.11% and Cozens is the last player out of the 21 who has a gf% over 50 meaning more goals are scored when they are on the ice and under 50 is less. 

Quick note before moving away from raw goal counts. Cozens has been on the ice for 4 empty net goals against and 3 for so that doesn't really change his numbers much. 

Third, let us look at Cozens, JJP, and Quinn as a line, the full CPQ line at 5v5. They have only 92 minutes together (5v5) thus far which is a little light still but again we are examining where they stand. They have 9gf and 7ga but what interests me here is the xgf and xga numbers. Those show us an 8.16xgf and a 4.42xga suggesting that they are producing about a 1/3 more (64.86%) chances for themselves than they give up and that is impressive for a 21, 21, and 20 year old in the NHL. Since we went with "most other forwards" let us compare to the top line of the Sabres and then Olofsson and Mitts for poops and laughs. 

Tage, Tuch, Skinner have played 194 minutes together and have 13gf and 8ga against at 5v5. What is interesting is that their xgf and xga numbers show us 12.1xgf and 11.06xga which comes out to 52.24% and that is far below the 64.86% we see with the CPQ line even if they have a slight advantage in real goal differential. My guess is that Tage and Skinner's shooting abilities are part of the reason where as Cozens shot issues are somewhat known at this point and Quinn went through a weird slump before his recent breakout. 

Now the fun one... Olofsson and Mitts (Im not including a 3rd person here because they rotate that 3rd a lot). The 2 players have been on the ice together for 206minutes and in that time... my god. They are 3gf and 11ga but do have a slightly better xgf% at 6.87% with a 10.7%xga. So they are almost exactly at the xga with 11 v 10.7 compared to the young guns line that has 2.5 more goals against then they should by xgf (yes real goals count just looking at context). That results in a stunning xgf% of 39.10% which is shockingly awful. The short version would be that while the CPQ creates 64.86% of the offense when on ice the MO line creates only 39.10%. 

Again the xgf stuff is all at 5v5 because I think that is what we are really looking at and talking about. 

So where does that leave us? Well, I actually don't disagree with you as much as you think about Cozens playing a little outside of himself at times. I think he has been out of position at times but overall that isn't the case. He has some things to clean up in his own end for sure. JJP is a middle of the road guy on this team who is not worst than most forwards and is basically average with improvement clearly visible. Jack Quinn is one of the best forwards on this team. He is highly adept at shutting down other teams and creating chances. He is probably better than Cozens in some ways and will overtake him IMPO. Combined, in their 92minutes of 5v5 ice time, this line is not and has not been worst than most forwards. In fact they are better than the Tage line, and so superior to the Mitts line that comparing the 2 is laughable. 

Jack Quinn, John-Jason Peterka, and Dylan Cozens are not worse than most forwards on the team. All of them with or without eachother maintain a positive gf/ga ratio. At 5v5 overall (no regard for linemates) Jack Quinn is 1st on the team at xgf% with 61.34 and 3rd on the team in actual gf% with 61.54. JJP is 6th on the team with 55.04xgf% and 8th on the team in actual gf% with 55.26. Dylan Cozens is 4th on the team in xgf% with 55.49 (3rd if I ignore Jost) and tied with JJP at 55.26 for actual gf%. So yes it is objectively FALSE that they are "worst than most other forwards on the team" and in Jack Quinn's case, there might not be a better 200ft forward on this team right now. 

Conclusion, you think I don't believe you that Cozens has been out of position at times when in fact I do. He has some learning yet to do but generally speaking, Dylan is pretty good at stopping the opposition and getting the puck up ice. JJP is still a hair behind on some plays but I think that is a simple age learning curve issue and the game will continue to slow down for him. Jack Quinn has clicked, he is very efficient at stopping the opposing team, working up ice, creating chances. So for one last time, it is objectively false that "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against."

 

Edited December 7, 2022 by LGR4GM
spelling and clarity

[mjd1001]

4 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Here is your claim "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against."

So since I am "more worried about making your point than you are about seeing what is real" and "You just apparently do not want to admit when you are wrong" and " is you just ignoring reality because reality doesn't support your case.  I can't argue/discuss this anymore with someone who's head is in the clouds about an issue just because it doesn't fit their narrative" let us examine your claim. 

There are several ways to do this but let's start easy. All numbers are courtesy of natural stat trick or elite prospects. 

First let us take a look at the list of goals against in all situations for the Sabres. Cozens actually is at the top of that list (you are right! huzzah) with 34ga in all situations. Peterka is 11th with 18ga. Now Jack Quinn wrecks the "all 3 most other" point because he sits at 19th with 11ga. This is out of 21 qualifying players who have played 10 or more games. 

Second let us take the raw numbers and put them in context because GA is one metric but GF is the other and players with more toi will likely have a few more goals against. To do this we get a percentage of gf%. Jack Quinn is 2nd on the team with a 67.65%. JJP is 6th with a 58.14%. Cozens is 10th with a 52.11% and Cozens is the last player out of the 21 who has a gf% over 50 meaning more goals are scored when they are on the ice and under 50 is less. 

Quick note before moving away from raw goal counts. Cozens has been on the ice for 4 empty net goals against and 3 for so that doesn't really change his numbers much. 

Third, let us look at Cozens and JJP as a line and then the full CPQ line. They have only 92 minutes together (5v5) thus far which is a little light still but again we are examining where they stand. They have 9gf and 7ga but what interests me here is the xgf and xga numbers. Those show us an 8.16xgf and a 4.42xga suggesting that they are producing about a 1/3 more (64.86%) chances for themselves than they give up and that is impressive for a 21, 21, and 20 year old in the NHL. Since we went with "most other forwards" let us compare to the top line of the Sabres and then Olofsson and Mitts for poops and laughs. 

Tage, Tuch, Skinner have played 194 minutes together and have 13gf and 8ga against at 5v5. What is interesting is that their xgf and xga numbers show us 12.1xgf and 11.06xga which comes out to 52.24% and that is far below the 64.86% we see with the CPQ line even if they have a slight advantage in real goal differential. My guess is that Tage and Skinner's shooting abilities are part of the reason where as Cozens shot issues are somewhat known at this point and Quinn went through a weird slump before his recent breakout. 

Now the fun one... Olofsson and Mitts (Im not including a 3rd person here because they rotate that 3rd a lot). The 2 players have been on the ice together for 206minutes and in that time... my god. They are 3gf and 11ga but do have a slightly better xgf% at 6.87% with a 10.7%xga. So they are almost exactly at the xga with 11 v 10.7 compared to the young guns line that has 2.5 more goals against then they should by xgf (yes real goals count just looking at context). That results in a stunning xgf% of 39.10% which is shockingly awful. The short version would be that while the CPQ creates 64.86% of the offense when on ice the MO line creates only 39.10%. 

Again the xgf stuff is all at 5v5 because I think that is what we are really looking at and talking about. 

So where does that leave us? Well, I actually don't disagree with you as much as you think about Cozens playing a little outside of himself at times. I think he has been out of position at times but overall that isn't the case. He has some things to clean up in his own end for sure. JJP is a middle of the road guy on this team who is not worst than most forwards and is basically average with improvement clearly visible. Jack Quinn is one of the best forwards on this team. He is highly adept and shutting down other teams and creating chances. He is probably better than Cozens in some ways and will overtake him IMPO. Combined in their 92minutes of 5v5 ice time, this line is not and has not been worst than most forwards. In fact they are better than the Tage line, and so superior to the Mitts line that comparing the 2 is laughable. 

Jack Quinn, John-Jason Peterka, and Dylan Cozens are not worse than most forwards on the team. All of them with or without eachother maintain a positive gf/ga ratio. At 5v5 overall (no regard for linemates) Jack Quinn is 1st on the team at xgf% with 61.34 and 3rd on the team in actual gf% with 61.54. JJP is 6th on the team with 55.04xgf% and 8th on the team in actual gf% with 55.26. Dylan Cozens is 4th on the team in xgf% with 55.49 (3rd if I ignore Jost) and tied with JJP at 55.26 for actual gf%. So yes it is objectively FALSE that they are "worst than most other forwards on the team" and in Jack Quinn's case, there might not be a better 200ft forward on this team right now. 

Conclusion, you think I don't believe you that Cozens has been out of position at times when in fact I do. He has some learning yet to do but generally speaking, Dylan is pretty good at stopping the opposition and getting the puck up ice. JJP is still a hair behind on some plays but I think that is simple age learning curve issue and the game will continue to slow down for him. Jack Quinn has clicked, he is very efficient at stopping the opposing team, working up ice, creating chances. So for one last time, it is objectively false that "all 3 players (Cozens, JJP, Quinn) have made mistakes/been out of position more than most other forwards on the team allowing prime chances and goals against."

 

Ok, I browsed your 'wall or words' but at this point I'm not going to respond to every single bit of it because it is just too much.  You were wrong to make the comments you did to me. Period. End of story.

I think what you are missing is the whole POINT of my post.  I cited examples of where Cozens cost the Sabres goals. I have done the same with Peterka and Quinn.  My point is, and all examples I listed were in support of that main point that I will restate here (hopefully in a way easier to understand) again:   COZENS IS A VERY GOOD PLAYER THAT HAS A MAJOR FLAW IN HIS GAME THAT IF HE FIXES HE WILL BE THAT MUCH BETTER.

What the heck you are arguing about and telling me that I am just wrong about....It must be an ego thing with you.  The points I brought up are NOT wrong.  I see how you ignored the point where I said that I HAVE pointed out where he cost the sabres goals.  In NO WAY did I say he does not make good defensive plays, nor did I say he is a bad defensive player. What I did say (that you seem like you REALLY want to ignore) is that if he corrects ONE part of his game (being out of position too often in the defensive end) he can be even BETTER than he is now.

You must like arguing, or you must not like admitting when you are wrong...or you must be someone who just is dead set on picking out part of someones post that you can puff out your chest and dispute it out of context to make yourself feel better.  Whatver the case is....the points above you brough up may be correct, but where you are wrong, you are DEAD wrong is when you made the comment to me "what are you smoking" or in the post after that told me that my point was wrong.  

[LGR4GM]

25 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

You must like arguing, or you must not like admitting when you are wrong...or you must be someone who just is dead set on picking out part of someones post that you can puff out your chest and dispute it out of context to make yourself feel better.  Whatver the case is....the points above you brough up may be correct, but where you are wrong, you are DEAD wrong is when you made the comment to me "what are you smoking" or in the post after that told me that my point was wrong.  

I didn't make this comment to you, for the record. 

[matter2003]

16 hours ago, Gatorman0519 said:

we are 2 defenseman and a goalie away from being good again 

They are already good, they simply need goalies who don't let in long shots when they have clear views of the puck every night.  That can't happen regularly at the NHL level and doesn't for virtually any other team. Now up to 6th in CF%