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Annual expectations thread 2022/23: #72 Tage Thompson

dudacek

By dudacek
in The Aud Club

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What do you expect from Tage Thompson?  

50 members have voted

  1. 1. Which of these best describes what you think the Sabres will get from Thompson this year?

    • Legit point-per-game 1st-line centre, what we saw the 2nd half of last season was for real
      17
    • Another 65-point season in a first-line role
      22
    • He had a career year and will slip back a bit, 50-something points is likely
      9
    • Last year was a blip, he's going to struggle and finish with 30-40 points
      2

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Doohickie Hall of Famer

Doohickie

Posted
Posted
On 9/17/2022 at 2:02 PM, dudacek said:

I think so, at least that the polls are trending optimistic. I kinda expected that overall, but not so much with Tage.

Gonna do a wrap/review when they're done in a week or two.

Just Peterka Bryson Tuch and Bjork to go, unless people really want Riley Sheahan thread.

WE WANT MALCOLM!  WE WANT MALCOLM!  WE WANT MALCOLM!  WE WANT MALCOLM!  WE WANT MALCOLM! 

  • 2 weeks later...
Zamboni First Liner

Zamboni

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, French Collection said:

The other wasn’t elite, he was generational.

Another term that gets thrown out there a lot.

That didn’t really answer my question but… OK. 
 

Going on a different tangent than what my question was… Eichel is not generational and Tage is not elite. Obviously the tweet was a tongue in cheek poke at Eichel.

  • Like (+1) 1
GASabresIUFAN Hall of Famer

GASabresIUFAN

Posted
Posted (edited)

I know I'm in the minority here, but I expect Tage to regress a little this season, not in terms of his play but in terms of production.  I think he'll score around 30 and add 25-30a this season.  

I think his shooting % will decrease to a more sustainable 12% or so and with others doing well he may actually lose a little PT at DG spreads the wealth and rolls 4 lines.  

None of this is a criticism of Tage, it's just how I see the team being constructed. 

When you look at the Sabres, obviously Tage and Skinner can put up 60+ pts.  However, I see Mitts, Cozens, Quinn, Tuch, VO and even JJP and Krebs having that kind of potential.  That's a huge amount of talent to have floating around and if Mitts and Cozens fulfill that promise this year as I suspect they might, we are going to be a matchup nightmare for many teams.

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
Doohickie Hall of Famer

Doohickie

Posted
Posted
4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

If we define elite as the top 10, I don't think Tage will be elite. Very good (top20) seems likely. 

I define elite as Tage & up.  😉

....and the whole elite thing wasn't the point of that post.  I was just reporting that Tage bought Jack's old place.

LGR4GM Hall of Famer

LGR4GM

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Doohickie said:

I define elite as Tage & up.  😉

....and the whole elite thing wasn't the point of that post.  I was just reporting that Tage bought Jack's old place.

I wasn't responding to your post about the house but this... 

8 hours ago, French Collection said:

The other wasn’t elite, he was generational.

Another term that gets thrown out there a lot.

... as a way to define elite and then talk about Tage. 

Generational is the top 1 or 2 guys. McDavid is generational. MacKinnon is elite. Tage is below elite right now. 

  • Like (+1) 2
GASabresIUFAN Hall of Famer

GASabresIUFAN

Posted
Posted (edited)

https://theathletic.com/3621131/2022/09/28/nhl-regression-candidates-2022-23/
 

Quote

 

age Thompson, C, Buffalo Sabres

I’m not here to argue that Tage Thompson is a one-year wonder or that the Sabres necessarily made a mistake handing him a long-term extension. It’s clear that moving to centre changed everything for Thompson and that he’s an excellent, improved shooter. With that said, he’s also probably not going to be on the cusp of 40 goals again this season.

Colleague Jonathan Willis did a compelling deep dive explaining why:

Thompson’s success last season is also a testament to the remarkable growth in his finishing ability. Coming into 2021-22, he had scored 12 goals on 230 shots at five-on-five at the NHL level, a 5.2 shooting percentage. Last year he tallied 24 five-on-five goals on 170 shots, a 14.1 percent clip, nearly triple his previous average.

There’s actually a long track record of Thompson struggling to score goals at even strength. In his draft year, he played 36 games for the University of Connecticut and scored a single even-strength goal. As an AHLer — and lumping in power-play minutes — he had a career shooting percentage of 10.6 percent against minor-league goalies.

In watching the tape, Thompson has clearly taken strides as a finisher. But considering he’s a high-volume shooter, I wouldn’t bet on his shooting percentage staying this elevated — he profiles much closer to being someone who consistently pushes for 30 goals per year rather than 40.

 

 

Edited by GASabresIUFAN
Doohickie Hall of Famer

Doohickie

Posted
Posted
5 hours ago, bg17 said:

Give him a letter. 

He's had an A during the preseason. 

I think he's going to take another big leap this year.  He may not score much more but I think he's just going to be become every team's player they least want to play against.  When he's moving he can just dominate, and he has the size, and finally knows how to use it, that you really can't stop him with physical play. 

When they need that late goal, put Tage, Skinner, Tuch, Dahlin and Power out there, with Cozens as the 6th skater. 

JustOneParade Fourth Liner

JustOneParade

Posted
Posted
13 hours ago, bg17 said:

Give him a letter. 

This is interesting. The Sabres have gone how many years with a dearth of leadership? Now, between the present and emerging leaders in this organization there is the possibility that a handful of them will never wear a letter simply due to numbers, not worthiness.  

mjd1001 First Liner

mjd1001

Posted
Posted

I have no idea how many goals he will score, whether he will regress or not. I'm hoping he doesn't and if I had to place a bet I'd say he won't, but I would not be surprised by anything.

A lot of it has to do with the fact that scoring is up across the NHL, due to rule changes, how the game is getting called, goalie equipment. Whatever. Tage finished 19th in the league in goals last year with 38.  Go back a decade ago and the 20ths best goal scorer in the league were hitting the high 20's or right around 30 goals. He is actually listed as 28th in the league in terms of 'goals per game'  last year with anyone that played more than half the season (.49 ggp).  Can he repeat that?  Sure.  If scoring goes up slightly again next year, and his 'goals per game' goes up to .5 or .52 (a slight increase) and he playes a full 82 games...there is your 40+ goals.

And if he takes a step back, how much?  It'll be interesting to track his production as the season progresses, in light of his new contract extension.

dudacek Hall of Famer

dudacek

Posted
  • Author
Posted

We will find out where Tage's game goes when the real games start, but the guy has become fun to watch.

Speed, strength, skill, shot and attitude: he's ticking all the boxes

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