Offseason Gameplan 2022 - Solving the goaltending system wide.

[Taro T]

19 minutes ago, JohnC said:

He's a utility player who will play intermittently. He's also useful as a PK. 

Playing intermittently is another way of saying he isn't getting a regular shift. 😉

 

[JohnC]

12 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Playing intermittently is another way of saying he isn't getting a regular shift. 😉

 

That's part of it. It also means that he will periodically, if not regularly, be designated to watch the games from the team box. He's a depth roster player who will most likely be in and out of the lineup. As you and others have noted this team is steadily adding credible depth so that when injuries do happen the impact won't be so catastrophic. 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, sweetlou said:

Could trade him to Arizona for 5th rd pick.  They like those young guys who have not proven anything and on cheap contracts.

You could send Bjork to Rochester.  If someone claims him, meh.

[GASabresIUFAN]

16 hours ago, Brawndo said:

I’m not sure how they could make an accurate assessment of His NHL Ability. 

Sure He was 2-5-2 in His Appearances with the Sabres this season, but that was before the team started improving.

He also had the best analytics, albeit in a small sample size, of the three main Sabres Goalies this season. 

Since January He has been playing behind an ECHL Level Defense for a Team that gives up a lot of scoring chances. 

Rochester is going to have minimal legitimate NHL Prospects on Defense next season even if Ryan Johnson signs, so it will probably be a heavy amount of AHL Veteran Defenseman  next season, not the best situation for a NHL Prospect to be in next year. 

None of that changes his rebound control issues, the getting beat on long-range shot attempts or the other issues Biron has pointed out time and again.  That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually become a capable NHL goalie.  It just means there is a ton to work on and I doubt he’ll be ready for NHL duty next year.  KA better be ready if he fails because I think his forward group is already playoff caliber.  He cannot let next season fail because of inadequate goaltending.  The Sabres lost 19 games this season is OT/SO (11 games) or by just 1 goal (8 games). With better goaltending we might have won 1/2 of those games giving us another 14 points and upping our season totals to 87 with 2 games left. 

[Brawndo]

26 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

None of that changes his rebound control issues, the getting beat on long-range shot attempts or the other issues Biron has pointed out time and again.  That doesn’t mean he won’t eventually become a capable NHL goalie.  It just means there is a ton to work on and I doubt he’ll be ready for NHL duty next year.  KA better be ready if he fails because I think his forward group is already playoff caliber.  He cannot let next season fail because of inadequate goaltending.  The Sabres lost 19 games this season is OT/SO (11 games) or by just 1 goal (8 games). With better goaltending we might have won 1/2 of those games giving us another 14 points and upping our season totals to 87 with 2 games left. 

This is the exact reason He should have been up in the NHL, the team in front of Him in Rochester was/is Hot Garbage on Defense. Marty also mentioned in one of His Radio Hits on WGR550, that part of the problem with UPL could be that He is attempting to do much and is overcompensating for The Problems on the Amerks. 
 

Despite the supposed interest in keeping Anderson for another season, there is zero chance He is part of the Sabres Long Term Plans. Given that Adams put a higher priority on development than Amerks Making the Playoffs, UPL should have gotten those games in Buffalo over Tokarski and Anderson. 
 

The Sabres have gotten much better defensively and UPL would have benefited playing behind this team. 
 

The Sabres should have seen if UPL could improve on the team’s  sub .900 Save Percentage, if He couldn’t back to the Amerks for Him. 
 

The Biggest Concern for UPL going back to the Amerks next season, He is going to be playing behind a Defense with zero bonafide NHL Prospects and Appert’s High Event System. 
 

And I agree, Adams Three Biggest Priorities this Offseason 

 

1. Goaltending ( By far the Biggest Concern) 

2. RHD Partner for Power

3. 4th Line Center 

[dudacek]

Why haven't we talked more about Semyon Varlamov?

One year left at $5 million makes him hard to trade for by teams tight to the cap and perfect for us and our no-blocking.

Islanders need cap space and he's become their backup. Yes, he's got a partial no-trade but I'm not sure that's insurmountable

His numbers this year are fine.

I don't see a better target given what Adams is allegedly looking for.

[GASabresIUFAN]

48 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Why haven't we talked more about Semyon Varlamov?

One year left at $5 million makes him hard to trade for by teams tight to the cap and perfect for us and our no-blocking.

Islanders need cap space and he's become their backup. Yes, he's got a partial no-trade but I'm not sure that's insurmountable

His numbers this year are fine.

I don't see a better target given what Adams is allegedly looking for.

We have, but it's unclear if the NYI want to trade him and he has a M-NTC and there is speculation that we are on the NT list.  I actually mentioned Varlomov very early in the goaltending thread and said I thought he'd like a chance to be a starter again.  I thought then that he'd be traded at the deadline but it didn't happen leading to the speculation that the NYI aren't interesting in trade him.
I don't mind LanceI don't mind Lance's suggestion in the TBN to give Holtby a 2 year 10 mil deal to be the bridge goalie here.

Edited April 25, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

11 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have, but it's unclear the NYI want to trade him and he has a M-NTC and there is speculation that we are on the NT list.  I actually mentioned Varlomov very early in the goaltending thread and said I thought he'd like a chance to be a starter again.  I thought then that he'd be traded at the deadline but it didn't happen leading to the speculation that the NYI are interesting in trade him.

I don't mind Lance

I don't mind Lance's suggestion in the TBN to give Holtby a 2 year 10 mil deal to be the bridge goalie here.

No idea what Lou or Varly are thinking.

That said, GMs are generally OK with moving $5 million backups.

$5 million backups are generally OK about being moved to a place where they will start.

***

We gotta be able to do better than Holtby at $5 million.

I think his rebound numbers this season are a bit of a mirage. I mean Scott Wedgwood's are better on that team.

(Can't remember why exactly, but I've always had the impression he's a bit of a diva too)

[Norcal]

This guy would look good in Rochester maybe?

Mentioned him a while back. Could he come to the US?

He's of age to hit his prime and he's been good in the KHL. 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ivan-fedotov-is-making-a-case-for-flyers-goaltending-role

Philly has some guys in front of him already too

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, Norcal said:

This guy would look good in Rochester maybe?

Mentioned him a while back. Could he come to the US?

He's of age to hit his prime and he's been good in the KHL. 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/ivan-fedotov-is-making-a-case-for-flyers-goaltending-role

Philly has some guys in front of him already too

Does anyone know if currently unsigned Russian players will be eligible to attend training camps or play in the NHL next year? Seems like a pretty big concern at this point.

[GASabresIUFAN]

Leafs sign Hobey winner Dryden McKay.

[North Buffalo]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

We have, but it's unclear if the NYI want to trade him and he has a M-NTC and there is speculation that we are on the NT list.  I actually mentioned Varlomov very early in the goaltending thread and said I thought he'd like a chance to be a starter again.  I thought then that he'd be traded at the deadline but it didn't happen leading to the speculation that the NYI aren't interesting in trade him.
I don't mind LanceI don't mind Lance's suggestion in the TBN to give Holtby a 2 year 10 mil deal to be the bridge goalie here.

At that point the isles still had a chance at the playoffs and V was still not fully back from injury... I get why no trade happened then but could see one this summer.  

[Archie Lee]

15 hours ago, dudacek said:

No idea what Lou or Varly are thinking.

That said, GMs are generally OK with moving $5 million backups.

$5 million backups are generally OK about being moved to a place where they will start.

***

We gotta be able to do better than Holtby at $5 million.

I think his rebound numbers this season are a bit of a mirage. I mean Scott Wedgwood's are better on that team.

(Can't remember why exactly, but I've always had the impression he's a bit of a diva too)

I am sure there was a report that the Oilers inquired about Varlamov. The Oilers were on his no trade list and he refused to waive. He may simply value living on the island and in a particular community over being a starting goalie. 
 

I agree on Holtby. I would be fine with adding him but he is not a guy I would throw $5 million per at, even for a very short-term. I realize that Adams is in a position where he has to do something, but I don’t think it ever makes sense to do something that is that far outside of what any other GM would do. If you sign Holtby for $5 mil per and he far underperforms his AAV, which would be likely, Adams would be rightly criticized for throwing ridiculous money at a player who was unlikely to earn it with his performance. 

[Taro T]

57 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

I am sure there was a report that the Oilers inquired about Varlamov. The Oilers were on his no trade list and he refused to waive. He may simply value living on the island and in a particular community over being a starting goalie. 
 

I agree on Holtby. I would be fine with adding him but he is not a guy I would throw $5 million per at, even for a very short-term. I realize that Adams is in a position where he has to do something, but I don’t think it ever makes sense to do something that is that far outside of what any other GM would do. If you sign Holtby for $5 mil per and he far underperforms his AAV, which would be likely, Adams would be rightly criticized for throwing ridiculous money at a player who was unlikely to earn it with his performance. 

In a vacuum, would agree w/ the bolded take.  But the Sabres are coming into the off-season in a rather unique position.  They have most of the roster they want & it is very young & therefore very inexpensive.  They need to get to the cap floor & want to do so without bringing on LT contracts that will force them to make decisions 3 years from now that they don't want to have to make.  So, spending reasonably big $'s on ST GTing is actually filling at least 3 needs and arguably a 4th - getting capable GTing, getting to the cap floor, not messing up the salary structure by overpaying a skater, and maintaining maximal flexibility in constructing the roster when the kids are entering their primes.

That said, not sure Holtby is the right guy to bring in.  Would much rather see Husso, Varlamov, Kuemper, or Fleury brought in.  (No idea whether Adams could get any of them, but they're higher on the wish list.)

Edited April 26, 2022 by Taro T

[GASabresIUFAN]

Throwing $5 mill at Holtby is similar to TM giving Meszaros $4 mill for a season to get to the cap floor, but with hopefully better results.  The biggest difference between now and then is the position of the two squads.  TM’s squad was designed to fail and Meszaros was part of that.  This time, this team is at the cusp of being playoff competitive for the first time in a decade+ and KA needs to throw his money into the right places.  Goaltending will certainly be one of them, so he needs to get the who right. I think Holtby has had a nice rebound season, is a Cup and Vezina winner and is only 32.  On the face of things he could be a perfect bridge for the next few years.  

[dudacek]

56 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

Throwing $5 mill at Holtby is similar to TM giving Meszaros $4 mill for a season to get to the cap floor, but with hopefully better results.  The biggest difference between now and then is the position of the two squads.  TM’s squad was designed to fail and Meszaros was part of that.  This time, this team is at the cusp of being playoff competitive for the first time in a decade+ and KA needs to throw his money into the right places.  Goaltending will certainly be one of them, so he needs to get the who right. I think Holtby has had a nice rebound season, is a Cup and Vezina winner and is only 32.  On the face of things he could be a perfect bridge for the next few years.  

Your logic is entirely sound, based on you view of Holtby. I just disagree on your view of Holtby.

I guess all that really matters is Adams is right about whatever goalie he picks.

For the record, 17/12/2 says that Adams had a better reading on Craig Anderson than I did.

[GASabresIUFAN]

22 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Your logic is entirely sound, based on you view of Holtby. I just disagree on your view of Holtby.

I guess all that really matters is Adams is right about whatever goalie he picks.

For the record, 17/12/2 says that Adams had a better reading on Craig Anderson than I did.

Holtby is just one option, which is why I said “on the face of things”. We are going to have to rely on the scouts and management staff to choose the right guy.  Maybe it’s Varlamov in trade, maybe it’s DeSmith, maybe it’s one of the Russian RFAs?  I honestly have no idea how this is going to play out, other then KA must do something more then he has done the last two years.  After looking at this 20 ways to Sunday, I have a much longer list of who I don’t want or think will come here.  

If I had to guess on someone, I think Husso has to be near the top of KA’s wish list.  I’d also guess Holtby and DeSmith are high on the list as well.  These 3 make the most sense to me given KA’s past actions and statements.  I doubt Kuemper, MAF or Campbell are coming here.  I’d also guess Korpisalo, despite his poor season, is on the list because of his age but only as a bargain option. The wild card is whether KA is willing to trade for an RFA like Samsonov, Georgiev, or Vanacek.  To me these are the most intriguing options.  They are still young with upside.  If they succeed we might end up with a franchise goalie at a long term reasonable contract.  I honestly have zero faith in UPL at this point. 

 

Edited April 26, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[nfreeman]

I don't think Husso is realistic.  He doesn't turn 28 until February and will be one of the top UFA goalies available.  He's going to want a 6- or 7-year deal.  KA isn't going to give that kind of term to Husso or any other goalie for that matter.

I think KA wants to see what he's got in the 3 young goalies and isn't going to commit starter money for more than 3 years to anyone.

[dudacek]

25 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

I don't think Husso is realistic.  He doesn't turn 28 until February and will be one of the top UFA goalies available.  He's going to want a 6- or 7-year deal.  KA isn't going to give that kind of term to Husso or any other goalie for that matter.

I think KA wants to see what he's got in the 3 young goalies and isn't going to commit starter money for more than 3 years to anyone.

I doubt anyone goes that long on Husso with a one-year sample size.

Best contract i can remember in a similar situation is thatcher Demko's 5 for 5 and he was already a Canuck so they knew exactly what they were getting.

Husso's track record prior to this season isn't significantly different than UPL's. I'm thinking 4 for 4 or 3 for 5.

Edited April 26, 2022 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, dudacek said:

I doubt anyone goes that long on Husso with a one-year sample size.

Best contract i can remember in a similar situation is thatcher Demko's 5 for 5 and he was already a Canuck so they knew exactly what they were getting.

Husso's track record prior to this season isn't significantly different than UPL's. I'm thinking 4 for 4 or 3 for 5.

This is fair.  Grubauer got 6 years x $5.9MM after splitting the #1 job for a few years, and of course Ullmark got 4 years x $5MM with no more than 37 starts in any season, but you are probably right that 6 or 7 years isn't likely for Husso.

Even so, I doubt KA gives a 4-year deal to a FA goalie.

[Weave]

51 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

 

Even so, I doubt KA gives a 4-year deal to a FA goalie.

This perplexes me.  

Most likely best case scenario, Levi and Portillo sign at the end of next season.  Most likely both will spend the bulk of their first full season in Rochester.  If one excels, he starts the following season in Buffalo.

22-23 both goalies in NCAA

23-24 both goalies in Roc

24-25 one goalie in Buffalo

Why in the hell wouldn’t KA give a good NHL goalie a 4yr deal?  When both goalie prospects will be ready for NHL duty (big assumption here), that 4 yr deal is an expiring deal.  Those are readily moved if the goalie has any tread left.

If pigs ever fly, UPL shows up as a good NHL goalie, and one of the college kids ever make it, we’ll have tradebait.

If FA goalie “X” and UPL scares away our prospects……. I mean, UPL shouldn’t be scaring away a guy that's confident in his game.

And we still don’t have a starting goalie until we actually have a starting goalie.  KA cannot afford to roll the dice on this roster while UPL, Portillo, and Levi sort themselves out over the next 3-4 seasons.

[GASabresIUFAN]

@Weave Well said.

[Flashsabre]

7 minutes ago, Weave said:

This perplexes me.  

Most likely best case scenario, Levi and Portillo sign at the end of next season.  Most likely both will spend the bulk of their first full season in Rochester.  If one excels, he starts the following season in Buffalo.

22-23 both goalies in NCAA

23-24 both goalies in Roc

24-25 one goalie in Buffalo

Why in the hell wouldn’t KA give a good NHL goalie a 4yr deal?  When both goalie prospects will be ready for NHL duty (big assumption here), that 4 yr deal is an expiring deal.  Those are readily moved if the goalie has any tread left.

If pigs ever fly, UPL shows up as a good NHL goalie, and one of the college kids ever make it, we’ll have tradebait.

If FA goalie “X” and UPL scares away our prospects……. I mean, UPL shouldn’t be scaring away a guy that's confident in his game.

And we still don’t have a starting goalie until we actually have a starting goalie.  KA cannot afford to roll the dice on this roster while UPL, Portillo, and Levi sort themselves out over the next 3-4 seasons.

Totally agree. This idea that these young goalies are ready to take the brass ring is silly.

UPL is an unknown. Levi and Portillo haven’t signed yet. The Sabres need a known NHL commodity in net to stabilize the team. Let the young kids fight to take the crease when they eventually make it. A good NHL starter on a 3 to 4 year deal to settle the position would do wonder for this team.

[nfreeman]

1 hour ago, Weave said:

This perplexes me.  

Most likely best case scenario, Levi and Portillo sign at the end of next season.  Most likely both will spend the bulk of their first full season in Rochester.  If one excels, he starts the following season in Buffalo.

22-23 both goalies in NCAA

23-24 both goalies in Roc

24-25 one goalie in Buffalo

Why in the hell wouldn’t KA give a good NHL goalie a 4yr deal?  When both goalie prospects will be ready for NHL duty (big assumption here), that 4 yr deal is an expiring deal.  Those are readily moved if the goalie has any tread left.

If pigs ever fly, UPL shows up as a good NHL goalie, and one of the college kids ever make it, we’ll have tradebait.

If FA goalie “X” and UPL scares away our prospects……. I mean, UPL shouldn’t be scaring away a guy that's confident in his game.

And we still don’t have a starting goalie until we actually have a starting goalie.  KA cannot afford to roll the dice on this roster while UPL, Portillo, and Levi sort themselves out over the next 3-4 seasons.

I agree with all of this, and if the Sabres somehow obtained a top-shelf starting goalie who came with a 4- or 5-year commitment, I'd be fine with it.

BUT I also think:

- KA knows he needs to convince Levi and Portillo to sign here

- KA thinks giving a 4-year (or longer) deal to an established goalie will impair his ability to sign Levi and Portillo

- KA thinks there is a decent possibility that UPL will be good enough to take the #1 job well before 4 years have elapsed

- KA is a firm believer in the "don't box the young guys out of NHL slots" approach

- Giving a goalie a 4-year deal would conflict with that approach

So my prediction is that KA will not do so.

YMMV, of course.

 

[thewookie1]

3 hours ago, nfreeman said:

I agree with all of this, and if the Sabres somehow obtained a top-shelf starting goalie who came with a 4- or 5-year commitment, I'd be fine with it.

BUT I also think:

- KA knows he needs to convince Levi and Portillo to sign here

- KA thinks giving a 4-year (or longer) deal to an established goalie will impair his ability to sign Levi and Portillo

- KA thinks there is a decent possibility that UPL will be good enough to take the #1 job well before 4 years have elapsed

- KA is a firm believer in the "don't box the young guys out of NHL slots" approach

- Giving a goalie a 4-year deal would conflict with that approach

So my prediction is that KA will not do so.

YMMV, of course.

 

It could also purely be the fact there aren't any goalies worth the 4 year commitment