Offseason Gameplan 2022 - Solving the goaltending system wide.

[PromoTheRobot]

How about this guy?

 

[Zamboni]

Is MAF an upgrade over Anderson?

I think so. 
 

So would it be MAF and UPL?

Or …

Bring back Anderson and have MAF? And let UPL marinate one more year in Rochester?

 

I personally have seen enough of Anderson and under no circumstances  do I want him back. But that’s me…

Edited April 20, 2022 by Zamboni

[GASabresIUFAN]

3 minutes ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How about this guy?

 

MAF is certainly on the list. Holtby is only 32 and could be here long enough to let one of the kids become a starter 

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Zamboni said:

Is MAF an upgrade over Anderson?

I think so. 
 

So would it be MAF and UPL?

Or …

Bring back Anderson and have MAF? And let UPL marinate one more year in Rochester?

 

I personally have seen enough of Anderson and under no circumstances  do I want him back. But that’s me…

Have no problem w/ bringing Anderson back.*

 

 

 

* Provided he isn't expected to start any more than 25 games.  So, if you have a 57+ game guy to pair with him, sure, why not.  He'd be a good #2.

[Flashsabre]

Even if Fleury doesn’t come here it takes one team out of competition for a goalie.

Kuemper is the A1 choice if available.

Husso is a guy where the scouts and analytics guys have to do their work to see what changed in him from last year to this year.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I did find it interesting the Buff News story discussed bringing Subban back at the veteran in Rochester. I have nothing against this idea.  I would still like for KA to sign a young UFA for Rochester like SJS just did with Strauss Mann.  

Edited April 20, 2022 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

Offer Fleury one year at $10 million, be sad when he turns it down. Kuemper and Freddie Anderson are also guys I’d overpay for a year, maybe 2, but they’ll want term. I’d definitely do the same for Husso and heks a guy I’d consider signing to term. Doubt Adams will.

Braden Holtby is probably more durable than Anderson but otherwise I prefer Craig.

I have no interest in signing a Strauss Mann type unless it’s on a 1-year deal. I’m not replacing or blocking Levi and Portillo until I know I have to.

I’m slowly coming around to Marty Biron’s idea of Casey DeSmith as being the guy who best fits within Adams’ parameters. I’m not high on DeSmith, but I can buy into Karmanos and Ventura having some insight there. Can we run with Anderson UPL and DeSmith in an open competition?

Edited April 20, 2022 by dudacek

[GASabresIUFAN]

44 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Offer Fleury one year at $10 million, be sad when he turns it down. Kuemper and Freddie Anderson are also guys I’d overpay for a year, maybe 2, but they’ll want term. I’d definitely do the same for Husso and heks a guy I’d consider signing to term. Doubt Adams will.

Braden Holtby is probably more durable than Anderson but otherwise I prefer Craig.

I have no interest in signing a Strauss Mann type unless it’s on a 1-year deal. I’m not replacing or blocking Levi and Portillo until I know I have to.

I’m slowly coming around to Marty Biron’s idea of Casey DeSmith as being the guy who best fits within Adams’ parameters. I’m not high on DeSmith, but I can buy into Karmanos and Ventura having some insight there. Can we run with Anderson UPL and DeSmith in an open competition?

I hate a 3 headed goalie monster.  What happens when/if DeSmith and UPL outplay the 41 year old Anderson?  I'd hate to put the classy veteran in that position.  

Hopefully Anderson will save KA from himself and either retire or take a job with a team in Florida.  

https://sabrenoise.com/2022/03/23/buffalo-sabres-craig-anderson-continue-playing-career/

My only real issue with signing DeSmith is that he has never been a starter in the NHL.  The most he's played is 36 games in a season.  His age is perfect to be here 2-4 years and be part of the equation.  He comes from a winning organization is familiar with our management and they with him.   His career NHL numbers are good with 92 games a 2.69 and .914.  This year he is a little under those numbers.  

I like Holtby better because he has starter experience but has also won a Vezina, Jennings and a Cup.  He is also only 32 and like DeSMith is young enough to be here for 2-4 years as our kids mature.  I love that he's having a nice bounce back year.   I also think he'd come to Buffalo to be part of an emerging team and to be a starter again.  The biggest issue here is is this rebound sustainable.  

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I hate a 3 headed goalie monster.  What happens when/if DeSmith and UPL outplay the 41 year old Anderson?  I'd hate to put the classy veteran in that position.  

Hopefully Anderson will save KA from himself and either retire or take a job with a team in Florida.  

https://sabrenoise.com/2022/03/23/buffalo-sabres-craig-anderson-continue-playing-career/

My only real issue with signing DeSmith is that he has never been a starter in the NHL.  The most he's played is 36 games in a season.  His age is perfect to be here 2-4 years and be part of the equation.  He comes from a winning organization is familiar with our management and they with him.   His career NHL numbers are good with 92 games a 2.69 and .914.  This year he is a little under those numbers.  

I like Holtby better because he has starter experience but has also won a Vezina, Jennings and a Cup.  He is also only 32 and like DeSMith is young enough to be here for 2-4 years as our kids mature.  I love that he's having a nice bounce back year.   I also think he'd come to Buffalo to be part of an emerging team and to be a starter again.  The biggest issue here is is this rebound sustainable.  

I don't think Holtby would come here. He's not after an emerging team, he wants a contender. 

[dudacek]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I hate a 3 headed goalie monster.  What happens when/if DeSmith and UPL outplay the 41 year old Anderson?  I'd hate to put the classy veteran in that position.  

Hopefully Anderson will save KA from himself and either retire or take a job with a team in Florida.  

https://sabrenoise.com/2022/03/23/buffalo-sabres-craig-anderson-continue-playing-career/

My only real issue with signing DeSmith is that he has never been a starter in the NHL.  The most he's played is 36 games in a season.  His age is perfect to be here 2-4 years and be part of the equation.  He comes from a winning organization is familiar with our management and they with him.   His career NHL numbers are good with 92 games a 2.69 and .914.  This year he is a little under those numbers.  

I like Holtby better because he has starter experience but has also won a Vezina, Jennings and a Cup.  He is also only 32 and like DeSMith is young enough to be here for 2-4 years as our kids mature.  I love that he's having a nice bounce back year.   I also think he'd come to Buffalo to be part of an emerging team and to be a starter again.  The biggest issue here is is this rebound sustainable.  

So much about goaltending is personal taste and belief. Holtby makes sense on paper, but I don’t see him as a culture guy and I’m not a believer in his game.

I think Anderson could make the “3-headed monster” work. He’s essentially there as a safety net and/or assistant coach if the other 2 guys are playing well, and to share the load if one of them doesn’t. UPL can still be sent down if he’s not earning his job. Anderson can be waived and kept in Buffalo, with a poison pill contract to protect him if we need a roster spot.

I dont trust any of the 3 to be a number 1, but I’m OK with 1 of the 3 emerging.

Edited April 20, 2022 by dudacek

[JohnC]

10 hours ago, Taro T said:

Have no problem w/ bringing Anderson back.*

 

 

 

* Provided he isn't expected to start any more than 25 games.  So, if you have a 57+ game guy to pair with him, sure, why not.  He'd be a good #2.

If you are receptive to Anderson as your secondary goalie, then are you in essence saying that UPL should not be your primary goalie and be with the big club? 

My sense (opinion) is that KA will bring in a veteran goalie who can be our #1 goalie and have UPL as the secondary goalie.

Speaking for myself when discussing the position I am very humble about evaluating players at this position. Sometimes the grade A player you expect to be good and who has played well in the past becomes a disappointment, while the second-rate player who has had a lackluster career and is added to the roster becomes a stalworth player for you. The players who play that position are so mercurial season to season and within-season. One way to support the goalie is to build a good defensive unit around that pivotal position. And that is what the organization is doing. 

 

[Taro T]

17 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So much about goaltending is personal taste and belief. Holtby makes sense on paper, but I don’t see him as a culture guy and I’m not a believer in his game.

I think Anderson could make the “3-headed monster” work. He’s essentially there as a safety net and/or assistant coach if the other 2 guys are playing well, and to share the load if one of them doesn’t. UPL can still be sent down if he’s not earning his job. Anderson can be waived and kept in Buffalo, with a poison pill contract to protect him if we need a roster spot.

I dont trust any of the 3 to be a number 1, but I’m OK with 1 of the 3 emerging.

Agree wrt Holtby.

 Actually am sort of hoping for the "3 headed goalie monster" though not sold on DeSmith as the guy penciled in at #1.  Guess really am hoping for a "2 headed backup monster" w/ UPL starting the year in Ra-cha-cha and then him forcing his way into the backup role at which point Anderson takes a backseat.  In that scenario, Kuemper is the 1 but no idea how Adams convinces him to come to Buffalo.

[PromoTheRobot]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

I hate a 3 headed goalie monster.  What happens when/if DeSmith and UPL outplay the 41 year old Anderson?  I'd hate to put the classy veteran in that position.  

Hopefully Anderson will save KA from himself and either retire or take a job with a team in Florida.  

https://sabrenoise.com/2022/03/23/buffalo-sabres-craig-anderson-continue-playing-career/

My only real issue with signing DeSmith is that he has never been a starter in the NHL.  The most he's played is 36 games in a season.  His age is perfect to be here 2-4 years and be part of the equation.  He comes from a winning organization is familiar with our management and they with him.   His career NHL numbers are good with 92 games a 2.69 and .914.  This year he is a little under those numbers.  

I like Holtby better because he has starter experience but has also won a Vezina, Jennings and a Cup.  He is also only 32 and like DeSMith is young enough to be here for 2-4 years as our kids mature.  I love that he's having a nice bounce back year.   I also think he'd come to Buffalo to be part of an emerging team and to be a starter again.  The biggest issue here is is this rebound sustainable.  

I'm of a mind to let Craig retire happily to Florida. He was a great teammate and played well enough. But I don't think he can keep it up another year.

Edited April 20, 2022 by PromoTheRobot

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, JohnC said:

If you are receptive to Anderson as your secondary goalie, then are you in essence saying that UPL should not be your primary goalie and be with the big club? 

My sense (opinion) is that KA will bring in a veteran goalie who can be our #1 goalie and have UPL as the secondary goalie.

Speaking for myself when discussing the position I am very humble about evaluating players at this position. Sometimes the grade A player you expect to be good and who has played well in the past becomes a disappointment, while the second-rate player who has had a lackluster career and is added to the roster becomes a stalworth player for you. The players who play that position are so mercurial season to season and within-season. One way to support the goalie is to build a good defensive unit around that pivotal position. And that is what the organization is doing. 

 

Have no faith in UPL as an NHL starter.  Hoping that's selling him short and he can do it, but won't be convinced until he actually demonstrates it.  Those preseason & early season over the glove goals are too etched to forget even though to a large degree (though not completely) he's fixed that part of his game.

Right now, he's nearly Lehner-level bad against breakaways, which with a dose of success could be cleared up quite rapidly.  He looks like he expects to lose that 1v1, getting some confidence could totally fix that.  

Not sure how he fixes the long range/ bad angle goal just going through him.  Were Dwight still here, expect we'd get all kinds of cool theories about his vision, but really don't know what that issue is.  Expect that'll be a tougher one to clean up.

[JohnC]

1 minute ago, Taro T said:

Have no faith in UPL as an NHL starter.  Hoping that's selling him short and he can do it, but won't be convinced until he actually demonstrates it.  Those preseason & early season over the glove goals are too etched to forget even though to a large degree (though not completely) he's fixed that part of his game.

Right now, he's nearly Lehner-level bad against breakaways, which with a dose of success could be cleared up quite rapidly.  He looks like he expects to lose that 1v1, getting some confidence could totally fix that.  

Not sure how he fixes the long range/ bad angle goal just going through him.  Were Dwight still here, expect we'd get all kinds of cool theories about his vision, but really don't know what that issue is.  Expect that'll be a tougher one to clean up.

Counting on UPL makes me queasy. You and others have mentioned it that his injuries may have stunted his development. I'm not sure if the best approach in handling him as a prospect is to play him full time in Rochester a little longer or to bring him up and play him up as a B goalie with less games under his belt? If I had to bet I think that KA is a true believer in the big goalie and will have him up in Buffalo. 

[sweetlou]

2 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I don't think Holtby would come here. He's not after an emerging team, he wants a contender. 

So this begs the question of what teams are contenders that would need a #1 goalie?

Edmonton, Colorado, and Toronto are really the only teams who are in the playoffs and will need a #1 next year.  Current goaltenders for teams are Koskinen, Kuemper, and Campbell, who are all UFA's after the season.   There maybe a carousel between them but you also have UFA's in MAF, Holtby, Husso, DeSmith, Greiss, and Korpisalo.  RFA's who may be available are Kahkonen, Georgiav, Samsonov or Vanecek.

 

I personally would go for Kahkonen or Husso as my starter with DeSmith as a back up. I want UPL to play a full season in Rochester with either Tokarski or Subban as back up. That would give the organization 4 goaltenders all capable of playing in NHL if injuries occur.

[matter2003]

UPL should help, he was by far the best goalie stat wise on the team although he had a small sample size. Posted a very respectable .917 Save Percentage and 2.74 GAA.  Record was only 2-5-2 however.

The others have been mostly bad.  Tokarski, Dell and Anderson rank 46th, 48th and 59th out of 69 goalies ranked in Goals Saved Above Average.  In short, the 3 have combined to allow more than 20 goals over what an average goalie would have allowed.  In comparison, Shesterkin from the Rangers leads the league in allowing 47 fewer goals than the average goalie would allow. 

In Goals Saved Above Expected per 60 minutes, with goalies who have at least 9 games played, UPL ranks 35th at -0.048 which is the best Sabre.   Tokarski is 55th at -.306, Anderson is 57th at -.319 and Dell is 61st at -.467 out of 75 qualifying goalies.

Clearly, no matter what way you slice it, UPL is far and away the best goalie of the bunch but even he was slightly worse than what would be expected. The others give up an extra goal once every 3ish games or so than what they should have.  Part of this issue is the Sabres goalies are very bad at allowing more rebounds than expected, Anderson being the best but still well below average ranking 44th. Tokarski, Dell and UPL are 57th, 60th and 71st in this metric.  UPL can kind of be expected as he is young and still honing his craft. I would expect him to improve in this area, which should lead to improvements in other areas.

We definitely need better. Imagine if we had a goalie who actually HELPED in this department rather than hurt us.  Probably the biggest need of the offseason.  The Sabres should do whatever they need to do to improve that area.  It is the weak link holding back even better progress from this group.

Edited April 20, 2022 by matter2003

[GASabresIUFAN]

@matter2003

No question goaltending is the greatest need. While UPL was decent during his time here, he has some serious flaws in his game that Marty Biron has pointed out on occasion.  Frankly, I’d wipe the slate clean.  I don’t trust UPL at all, nor do I want Anderson or Tokarski back in the NHL.

The biggest problem facing KA this off-season is who is a proven upgrade on Anderson & Co. who is willing to come here.  Most of the available players have flaws or allegedly don’t want to come here.  For example DeSmith has never played more then 36 NHL games in a season; Holtby hasn’t started to 2 years and not sure if his rebound in performance is sustainable; MAF is old, expensive, and probably won’t come here etc…

Husso, Kuemper, and Campbell are probably the top 3 UFA starters and all 3 play for contenders.  I honestly can’t see Colo (Kuemper) and Tor (Campbell) letting their starters walk.  Husso is the most obvious player to invest in at 27 except this was only his second season in the NHL and his numbers were drastically improved year over year.  Stl is committed to Binnington via a longterm deal with a NTC, thus Husso should be available.  Sadly I just don’t see KA taking that risk.

[matter2003]

10 minutes ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

@matter2003

No question goaltending is the greatest need. While UPL was decent during his time here, he has some serious flaws in his game that Marty Biron has pointed out on occasion.  Frankly, I’d wipe the slate clean.  I don’t trust UPL at all, nor do I want Anderson or Tokarski back in the NHL.

The biggest problem facing KA this off-season is who is a proven upgrade on Anderson & Co. who is willing to come here.  Most of the available players have flaws or allegedly don’t want to come here.  For example DeSmith has never played more then 36 NHL games in a season; Holtby hasn’t started to 2 years and not sure if his rebound in performance is sustainable; MAF is old, expensive, and probably won’t come here etc…

Husso, Kuemper, and Campbell are probably the top 3 UFA starters and all 3 play for contenders.  I honestly can’t see Colo (Kuemper) and Tor (Campbell) letting their starters walk.  Husso is the most obvious player to invest in at 27 except this was only his second season in the NHL and his numbers were drastically improved year over year.  Stl is committed to Binnington via a longterm deal with a NTC, thus Husso should be available.  Sadly I just don’t see KA taking that risk.

Campbell has been brutal for Toronto lately, definitely don't want him.

[dudacek]

I want UPL in the NHL next year. It's time.

If he doesn't make the jump, we probably shouldn't count on him to ever make it.

But we need to see what he's got.

[sweetlou]

15 hours ago, PromoTheRobot said:

How about this guy?

 

I like the idea because it would be a short contract.

one of my takes...

https://www.capfriendly.com/armchair-gm/team/3205742

[LabattBlue]

12 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I want UPL in the NHL next year. It's time.

If he doesn't make the jump, we probably shouldn't count on him to ever make it.

But we need to see what he's got.

As a #2 behind a solid #1 where UPL only has to be counted on for 25-30 games, fine.  But any more than that, and you are playing with fire. 

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, LabattBlue said:

As a #2 behind a solid #1 where UPL only has to be counted on for 25-30 games, fine.  But any more than that, and you are playing with fire. 

Agreed. There is no world where I want to hand UPL the number one slot.

If he steals the job because he outplayed a real NHL goalie, fine. But anointing him the starter would be folly.

[matter2003]

On 4/19/2022 at 8:45 PM, PromoTheRobot said:

How about this guy?

 

Can we get someone that isn't in their 40s?

[matter2003]

19 hours ago, dudacek said:

I want UPL in the NHL next year. It's time.

If he doesn't make the jump, we probably shouldn't count on him to ever make it.

But we need to see what he's got.

He was far and away the best goalie we had in his stint up here although still slightly below average based on metrics and among worst in the NHL in giving up rebounds. If he can improve that area of his game he will likely make a very big improvement in both save percentage and GAA as there will be less point blank chances where he is out of position.

The other goalies we have are basically below replacement level, ranking 44th or lower out of 75 goalies in metrics like expected goals allowed below average and goals saved above average. See my post up thread for talk about this in more detail.

Edited April 21, 2022 by matter2003