COVID-19

[PASabreFan]

An interesting bit of food for thought re: Sweden is that although the government didn't order mitigation efforts, a lot of the people did them on their own. I wish I could remember where I saw this story. It might have had something to do with cellphone data they can look at to study people's movements. Which raises the obvious question here in the U.S. The powers that be can say the stay at home orders are lifted and businesses can re-open, but will the public buy in?

11 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

How many people died in January and February before we called it Covid? 

Are you still casting shade or finally coming around into the sunlight (see the Even Randomer thread for further edification)? (Never mind, I read on in the thread.)

34 minutes ago, SDS said:

Where do you see mass hysteria? It may be different where you are, but there is no mass hysteria here in Maryland.

Believe me, there's no hysteria here either. I know where Woody gets around to, and speaking only for my side of the border, the folks don't even know what germs are and don't know what's on other side of them hills. And I'd like to know where Woody gets avocado toast in WNY.

Edited April 27, 2020 by PASabreFan

[SwampD]

8 minutes ago, Zamboni said:

It will be interesting if the percentage of infected and deaths in Sweden will be similar or way way worse than countries who‘s population really hammered home the social distancing, masks, and closed businesses route.

10 million vs. 330 million is a very different animal with a unique set of challenges they share and don’t share.

Yeah, I find the whole “look at Sweden” argument kind of ridiculous.

Same as I think the “look at New York” and applying it to the rest of the country, is as well.

[PASabreFan]

12 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

And all through last week the daily deaths were over 2,000. Sunday saw a dramatic drop, but maybe that's a lack of reporting. The idea of escaping this thing with 60,000 deaths is looking like a fantasy.

And the models that predicted less than 100k deaths were based on mitigation efforts continuing. Not necessarily that businesses wouldn't reopen but that people would stay smart. My big fear is that people will equate reopening with "back to normal."

[Neo]

Sweden ....  institutional green painted plasterboard wall.

The United States ...  Pablo Picasso on LSD mural painted brick wall.

We learn wherever we look.   It ain’t gonna be easy to learn correctly.

[Eleven]

I don't know where people are getting information on Sweden, but it is NOT handling this well.  It has two-three times the COVID mortality rates of other Nordic countries and its hospitals are turning away the afflicted.

Here, a man was airlifted to Turkey for treatment because a Swedish hospital refused to treat him:  https://www.expressen.se/kvallsposten/coronasjuk-man-fick-inte-vard-flogs-till-turkiet-/

A whopping 69% of closed Swedish COVID cases ended in death:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden ranks 11th worldwide in COVID deaths per capita: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (use the sort function).

Sweden does so, so much right that it's a little ridiculous to watch them screw this up so badly.

 

Edited April 27, 2020 by Eleven

[dudacek]

37 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

An interesting bit of food for thought re: Sweden is that although the government didn't order mitigation efforts, a lot of the people did them on their own. I wish I could remember where I saw this story. It might have had something to do with cellphone data they can look at to study people's movements. Which raises the obvious question here in the U.S. The powers that be can say the stay at home orders are lifted and businesses can re-open, but will the public buy in?

My wife says she isn’t leaving our current distancing model until she has to, or until the risk has demonstrably receded.

She’s busy and working from home is working well for her, the weather has been nice and the yard and driveway socializing has worked OK, and she has concerns about past pneumonia elevating her risk.

[LTS]

12 hours ago, Brawndo said:

 

If I am not mistaken there have been various points in time where deaths were attributed to COVID-19 without actual testing and positive identification. Mostly, I am sure, because they could not actually test everyone to confirm.  I wonder how many deaths could have been simply flu related, etc.  While I am being skeptical of overall reported deaths I am not trying to diminish the seriousness of the situation so much as, the numbers might not be as accurate (while still being significant).

12 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

How many people died in January and February before we called it Covid? 

This also... or did we go back and attribute deaths that seemed to match the symptoms and just assume?  (although clearly not in February if the number was 0)

2 hours ago, darksabre said:

I think this fails to account for the differences between us and Sweden when it comes to healthcare, socioeconomics, workplace dynamics (sick days). I believe Sweden had far greater hospital bed capacity than we do here in the US, which allowed them to easily absorb the extra load from coronavirus cases. They also believe in actually taking care of yourself and others by doing things like taking sick time off from work. And they also take better care of the less fortunate in their populations instead of feeding them into the wood chipper. That all contributes to their better response.

The threat of coronavirus in the US was always related to our garbage healthcare system's complete lack of capacity to handle anything beyond the normal (which you have admitted). Sweden was able to handle this situation because they were prepared to do so. The US could never have been adequately prepared because it is not designed to be.

Without being too political here this is a good reason why when people talk about universal healthcare, etc. I don't think it will succeed in the US.  It would be a massive culture shock for people to adopt the lifestyles and priorities that have worked in another culture. 

Spending 1 week in Sweden it was ABUNDANTLY clear that people operated differently and that it stems from an intrinsic social value system that is fundamentally different than the US.

 

[Curt]

2 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

With China, I don't know if we'll ever know what really happened. With Italy, probably. I had no cell service/internet access in the beginning of this whole mess so I didn't pay much attention. I would like to give a better answer, but sadly I cannot 

If the US had the deaths per capita that Italy has had, it would equate out to about 160,000 deaths.

In the beginning, Italy didn’t do enough and their hospital situation got completely out of control, then they locked everything down.  It hit them early on they have had 26k confirmed deaths.  They tried to do what Sweden is doing now, and their medical infrastructure just couldn’t handle it.  They had to change strategies.

[Taro T]

28 minutes ago, Eleven said:

I don't know where people are getting information on Sweden, but it is NOT handling this well.  It has two-three times the COVID mortality rates of other Nordic countries and its hospitals are turning away the afflicted.

Here, a man was airlifted to Turkey for treatment because a Swedish hospital refused to treat him:  https://www.expressen.se/kvallsposten/coronasjuk-man-fick-inte-vard-flogs-till-turkiet-/

A whopping 69% of closed Swedish COVID cases ended in death:  https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/sweden/

Sweden ranks 11th worldwide in COVID deaths per capita: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries (use the sort function).

Sweden does so, so much right that it's a little ridiculous to watch them screw this up so badly.

 

And, you are declaring the winner of the game at half time.

There's a good chance that an historic Bills playoff game will wind up a good analogy for how Sweden did regarding this virus.  We just don't know yet if this will end up 51-3 or 41-38.  When they chose this path, they knew the early numbers would look bad.  They've literally bet lives on it being the Greatest Game Ever Played.  Truly hoping it is; because if it's the Raiders game, that alternative is too gruesome.  

[sabills]

57 minutes ago, Taro T said:

And, you are declaring the winner of the game at half time.

There's a good chance that an historic Bills playoff game will wind up a good analogy for how Sweden did regarding this virus.  We just don't know yet if this will end up 51-3 or 41-38.  When they chose this path, they knew the early numbers would look bad.  They've literally bet lives on it being the Greatest Game Ever Played.  Truly hoping it is; because if it's the Raiders game, that alternative is too gruesome.  

The dead don't get a comeback.

[Taro T]

37 minutes ago, sabills said:

The dead don't get a comeback.

No they don't.  What point are you trying to make?

[SwampD]

3 minutes ago, Taro T said:

No they don't.  What point are you trying to make?

It's a heckuva thing to gamble with.

[PASabreFan]

How many people have died of COVID-19? It's likely been undercounted. One way they are trying to figure it out is by determining expected deaths in a population if the pandemic hadn't occurred and comparing that number with how many people actually died. ("Horton Close") (Too soon?)

Quote

The analysis calculates excess deaths by using a model to estimate how many people probably would have died absent the pandemic, and then subtracting that number from the overall deaths reported by the NCHS.

The analysis suggests that the deaths announced in the weeks leading up to April 4, based on reports from state public health departments, failed to capture the full impact of the pandemic. Those incomplete numbers were widely cited at a time when many states were making critical decisions about closing businesses and taking other actions to stem the spread of the virus.

The analysis also suggests that the death toll from the pandemic is significantly higher than has been reported, said Daniel Weinberger, a Yale professor of epidemiology and the leader of the research team. As of Sunday, more than 54,000 people had been killed by the novel coronavirus, according to numbers reported by state health departments and compiled by The Washington Post.

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/U-S-deaths-soared-in-early-weeks-of-pandemic-15228817.php

 

[Eleven]

3 hours ago, Taro T said:

And, you are declaring the winner of the game at half time.

There's a good chance that an historic Bills playoff game will wind up a good analogy for how Sweden did regarding this virus.  We just don't know yet if this will end up 51-3 or 41-38.  When they chose this path, they knew the early numbers would look bad.  They've literally bet lives on it being the Greatest Game Ever Played.  Truly hoping it is; because if it's the Raiders game, that alternative is too gruesome.  

Well, it's not a game, and there are no winners.  But Sweden will do no better than 11th worst in COVID deaths per capita unless people in other countries start suffering even more, which, as you note, is rather grim.

2 hours ago, sabills said:

The dead don't get a comeback.

Exactly.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, SwampD said:

It's a heckuva thing to gamble with.

It may be, but it is done every single day.  As a single example: What is the proper speed limit?  It could be knocked down to 5 or 10 miles per hour, but then commerce grinds to a halt and society effectively forces everybody to live in condensed NYC-ish quarters.  Which we are learning has issues of its own.

There are things we could do that drive society towards more authoritarianism which on the surface would increase safety but it would definitely change our way of life.  And the increased safety may turn out to merely be illusory.  So do we go there?  Not without public debate at a minimum.  (And some of us are very hesitant to go there at all.  Freedoms relinquished beyond temporary measures due to a crisis are rarely returned without bloodshed.  And history is full of examples where even the temporary measures turned out not to be temporary.)

Getting back to the case at hand, the Swedes took a gamble that building a herd immunity which sheltering those at greatest risk while the herd immunity builds will ultimately result in fewer deaths than shutting the economy down entirely and keeping the infection going through society for a longer time.  Every time an at risk person comes in contact with somebody new, they are effectively rolling the dice.  Do we have them roll the dice for many months or even years, or do we reduce the overall time that they need to be on heightened alert to a couple of months?  The Swedes are rolling (for now) with the latter plan and we with the former.  Which will ultimately turn out to be right?  We don't know.  The early returns say our plan will be more effective; but the early returns were ALWAYS going to give that result.  The thing that matters is the "score" at the end of the "game."

And even if we have better results according to deaths from the virus, if deaths from other causes go up enough due to our mitigation efforts; we may end up losing the game anyway.

Many states have had hospitals put off "elective" procedures.  What sort of complications will arise from those?  How many hospitals will close because of no / little revenues?  These are things that will factor into the analysis of whether we got it right or wrong, whether the Swedes got it right or wrong, of whether some hybrid model would've been better/ best.  We simply don't have those answers at present.

59 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

How many people have died of COVID-19? It's likely been undercounted. One way they are trying to figure it out is by determining expected deaths in a population if the pandemic hadn't occurred and comparing that number with how many people actually died. ("Horton Close") (Too soon?)

https://www.stamfordadvocate.com/news/article/U-S-deaths-soared-in-early-weeks-of-pandemic-15228817.php

 

And it would be good to get data on other diseases as well to better understand this disease.  It appears that EMT calls and hospitalizations for several items such as heart attacks and strokes are down significantly relative to normal rates.  It would seem reasonable that those are still occurring at rates comparable to historic norms.  (Maybe they're even elevated as stress levels are through the roofs lately and stress is a huge factor in their onset.)  If people are having heart attacks but not getting treated, how much more likely are they to die?  Those deaths may be getting attributed to the virus even though they shouldn't be as now "probable virus related deaths" are getting counted as virus caused deaths.  Yes, a lot of the additional deaths are most definitely caused by the virus.  But not all are.  So, simply stating the increase in deaths is due to the big ju x is overly simplistic and can actually be detrimental for planning purposes. 

Knowing what that breakdown is would help those in charge to figure out how we can get out of the lockdown.

 

[PASabreFan]

It's not like Sweden is just "letting it rip." There are social distancing rules. The rules are voluntary and rely on people being socially responsible. This article talks about the threat of closing establishments that aren't being safe. It's helpful when analyzing something to compare two extremes, but the U.S and Sweden aren't as far apart as it looks at first glance.

Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavirus restrictions

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUSKCN2262AX

 

[Eleven]

4 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

It's not like Sweden is just "letting it rip." There are social distancing rules. The rules are voluntary and rely on people being socially responsible. This article talks about the threat of closing establishments that aren't being safe. It's helpful when analyzing something to compare two extremes, but the U.S and Sweden aren't as far apart as it looks at first glance.

Sweden to shut bars and restaurants that ignore coronavirus restrictions

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-sweden-stockholm/sweden-to-shut-bars-and-restaurants-that-ignore-coronavirus-restrictions-idUSKCN2262AX

 

Sweden isn't just "letting it rip," but it doesn't treat COVID patients at hospitals and the social distancing has started very late.

[SwampD]

Guess where I live.

 

[PASabreFan]

The LOS ANGELES LAKERS will return millions of dollars they applied for and got as part of the Paycheck Protection Program. Good for the administration's calling out of some of these ham-handed entities, including Harvard and its $40 billion endowment, which took money from a fund intended to help colleges and universities.

[JujuFish]

9 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

The LOS ANGELES LAKERS will return millions of dollars they applied for and got as part of the Paycheck Protection Program. Good for the administration's calling out of some of these ham-handed entities, including Harvard and its $40 billion endowment, which took money from a fund intended to help colleges and universities.

Ah yes, how dare universities use government money to help students.

[spndnchz]

I need a haircut desperately.  Chz out. 

[Taro T]

27 minutes ago, JujuFish said:

Ah yes, how dare universities use government money to help students.

You have to admit that an organization with an 11 digit bank account (PA - the "bank account" is figurative ? ) taking money that is supposed to be used to help those barely getting by is a bad look.  If they wanted, they could give free tuition, room, and board to their entire undergraduate class for the next 20 years and still have MINIMUM 2/3's of their endowment left.

[JujuFish]

34 minutes ago, Taro T said:

You have to admit that an organization with an 11 digit bank account (PA - the "bank account" is figurative ? ) taking money that is supposed to be used to help those barely getting by is a bad look.  If they wanted, they could give free tuition, room, and board to their entire undergraduate class for the next 20 years and still have MINIMUM 2/3's of their endowment left.

Except that they didn't take any money.  Nor did they apply for any money.  The government just auto-allocated it to them.

 

And what do you think they do with their endowment?  Anyone who goes to Harvard (or Princeton, maybe Yale though I don't know for sure) does not have to graduate with debt, because they make up the difference that you cannot afford.

[darksabre]

1 hour ago, spndnchz said:

I need a haircut desperately.  Chz out. 

Same. I buzzed mine off a few months ago and was in the process of growing it back out and now it has reached the UGLY stage. Good thing I'm not here to impress anyone ?

[North Buffalo]

35 minutes ago, darksabre said:

Same. I buzzed mine off a few months ago and was in the process of growing it back out and now it has reached the UGLY stage. Good thing I'm not here to impress anyone ?

Mine has come back curly from chemo... my son says I look like a jewish rabi its getting unruly.  Need to just buzz the sides and back short but really not sure of my abilities with one of those beard trimmer things I recently bought... ps my son looks like a dark haired Shaggy from Scooby Doo.