GDT: Sabres @ Penguins 3/5/17 5pm

[Randall Flagg]

Flagg, all I needed was the eye test to see the statement was ridiculous.

But outstanding work

 

PS: What's the big change?

I'm going for a PhD in physics, starting this summer. Luckily hockey is my only hobby, but, particularly these next two years, I'm going to be strained for free time.

[rickshaw]

With the stat you refer to, you actually just give our ranking relative to the league and avoid what the actual number was, so I'm going to take a look at that. But first, some other team stats:

 

Sabres ranking in ES goals against this year: 14th, 2.05 per game.

Sabres ranking in ES goals against during the 2014-15 tank season: 27th, 2.40 per game.

Sabres ranking in ES goals against during the 2013-14 tank season: 26th, 2.28 per game.

 

Sabres ranking in total goals against this year: 16th, 2.77 per game.

Sabres ranking in total goals against during the 2014-15 tank season: 29th, 3.28 per game.

Sabres ranking in total goals against during the 2013-14 tank season: 25th, 2.96 per game.

 

Sure, this stat can be influenced by goalies. Let's look for some shot suppression:

Sabres ranking in shots against per game this year: 30th, like you said, with 33.9 shots against per game.

Sabres ranking in shots against per game during the 2014-15 tank season: 30th, with 35.6 shots per game, almost 2 more per game, which is often enough to jump 10-15 spots in this category most years.

Sabres ranking in shots against per game during the 2013-14 tank season: 28th, 34.3 shots against per game.

 

Shots aren't the whole story, how do the shot attempts match up? The Sabres this season are 24th in CA per 60, with 58 attempts allowed per 60 minutes. The McEichel tank team? 30th place, with 67.4 shot attempts allowed per 60 minutes. They had 61.4 shot attempts per 60 the season before that one, 29th place. 13/14's number is one of the worst since this started being tracked, and the McEichel team's CA per 60 is by far the worst ever recorded. This year's team isn't even bottom 5 among teams in 2016-17 by itself.

 

So they are better at suppressing shots than they were those seasons. Let's take a look at where they came from:

Heat map, 2013-14:

...yeah.

 

Heat map, 2014-15:

...yeah.

 

Heat map, 2016-17:

 

This tells us a lot more than raw shot numbers. Not only have we lowered our shots against (in one case by enough to jump as many as 10 spots in the standings if we were to lower that amount from a different team) this season relative to those, but it is hard to exaggerate how much better we are at limiting high quality shots. The "NHL defensemen" we employed during the tank let teams go absolutely nuts from every prime scoring area, where the heat map for this season shows that we are better than average at keeping teams out of high scoring areas this season. Sure, our shots against aren't ideal and are pretty high, but they're from low-percentage areas which is likely by design. Sure, they'd be lower than this if our defensemen were in a system that allowed them to transition the puck and weren't Josh Gorges/Zach Bogosian. But from a total defenseman set standpoint, you have to jump through a lot of hoops to call this defense worse at defense than the tank ones. Another place the discrepancy shows up is that Lehner is near the top of the NHL in save percentage but actually has pretty bad numbers facing shots from high danger areas - he just doesn't see many of them. He'd be pitiful if he dealt with the defense allowing the shots that the tank ones did.

 

On an individual defenseman level, here are the guys that played more than 15 games for the 13-14 tank team:

In the 2013-14 season, here are the defensemen that played for the Sabres:

Ehrhoff, 79 GP, 33 PTS, (-27 for pi), 46.4 CF%

McBain, 69 GP, 17 PTS, (-13), 41.6 CF%

Weber, 68 GP, 9 PTS, (-29), 40.2 CF%

Tallinder, 64 GP, 8 PTS, (-21), 42.3 CF%

Myers, 62 GP, 22 PTS, (-26), 43.9 CF%

Pysyk, 44 GP, 7 PTS, -11, 45.9 CF%

18 year old Ristolainen, 34 GP, 4 PTS, -15, 40.9 CF%

Sulzer, 25 GP, 2 PTS, -3, 41.3 CF%

Ruwhedel, 21 GP, 1 PT, -3, 44.9 CF%

 

So we roughly ran

Ehrhoff - Myers

McBain - Tallinder

Weber - Pysyk

with a rookie Risto, Sulzer, and Ruwhedel getting some time.

 

Offensively, all defensemen that played generated a total of 105 points in 82 games, for 1.28 points per game. 3 of these 9 players play a regular shift in the NHL, and the rest belong nowhere near it, and didn't then either.

 

14-15 tank team, defensemen with over 15 GP:

Ristolainen, 78 GP, 20 PTS, -32, 37.3 CF%

Weber, 64 GP, 7 PTS, -22, 38.5 CF%

Zadorov, 60 GP, 15 PTS, -10, 39.3 CF%

Meszaros, 60 GP, 14 PTS, -13, 39.1 CF%

Benoit, 59 GP, 9 PTS, -19, 36.8 CF%

Myers, 47 GP, 13 PTS, -15, 34.8 CF%

Strachan, 46 GP, 5 PTS, -30, 37.1 CF%

Gorges, 46 GP, 6 PTS, -28, 34.5 CF%

Bogosian, 21 GP, 7 PTS, -7, 41.0 CF%

 

So you could say we ran

Weber - Risto

Zadorov - Myers/Bogosian

Meszaros/Gorges - Benoit/Strachan

 

Offensively our defensemen generated 100 points in 82 games, for 1.22 points per game. 5 of these 9 players play a regular shift in the NHL and only 4 of them should.

 

This season, we have

Ristolainen, 65 GP, 39 PTS, -5, 43.9 CF%

McCabe, 60 GP, 15 PTS, +4, 46.7 CF%

Franson, 58 GP, 18 PTS, 0, 50.3 CF%

Gorges, 49 GP, 3 PTS, -1, 42.1 CF%

Falk, 41 GP, 7 PTS, 0, 50.3 CF%

Bogosian, 39 GP, 7 PTS, -15, 48.7 CF%

Kulikov, 39 GP, 2 PTS, -17, 45.1 CF%

Fedun, 25 GP, 7 PTS, +3, 54.0 CF%

 

The lines are generally

McCabe - Ristolainen

Kulikov - Bogosian

Falk/Gorges - Franson/Fedun

 

With a lot of injuries. In particular, Kulikov has an injury that is absolutely crippling and has us wondering how he's even playing. Bogosian and Gorges plain suck, and Risto, McCabe, Franson are bona fide top 4 players on good teams this season (well, call Franson a 5) with Falk and Fedun playing very passable bottom pair minutes. The defensemen have scored 98 points in 66 games for 1.48 points per game. In a system that plays against most of these guys' strengths, they are still far, far better on paper, individually, and as a unit both offensively and defensively than either tank team. Gorges is the only guy that doesn't belong on NHL ice even in sheltered minutes.

 

There is no possible way to maintain a grasp on reality while claiming that the tank teams had better defensemen, or a better defensive unit on the whole. There is no lens you can look through that will even give the illusion it's now worse, unless you maintain that league rankings of one and only one particular stat without comparing the actual numbers to each other, and then an incorrect assumption about scoring rates, is a fair and meaningful lens through which to look.

 

DD pulls forecheckers and focuses on prevent defense, and has been yelled at by Murray for doing it, specifically after the Flyers game earlier this season. He does try to reign them in. So do many other coaches in the league. It's not why DD is a problem. There has been a lot of analysis on this board as to why DD is the problem, though I've gotten the sense that you don't buy into it, which is cool, but vague claims about 07-08 teams (which had lost their best two players and were thus plain bad at hockey relative to those that came before, playing guys in positions above their level which also contributed to the view that they failed as leaders when really they just weren't #1 C's/W's/whatever) playing with leads without bringing stats/evidence and then concluding that Dan is not to blame based on that is not going to move many needles here.

 

Listen, we are all busy people so please, if you're going to post, do a little research first otherwise you're just wasting our time!!!????

[Randall Flagg]

Welp.  You are 100% completely right and I was wrong.  We have a better defense than we did two years ago when we were trying to lose.  We're still terrible, but better than two years ago.  I guess that's something?  It's barely worth caring about right now.

 

I do feel completely terrible that you spent so much time putting this together on a Sunday night.  I was mostly venting and I'm honestly not even surprised I was wrong.  

 

Hopefully the rest of your night is better than this, my friend.

Haha no worries. I do it because I love it! I do have to sleep though it's been about 40 hours since I was able to for traveling and airport reasons. 

 

Overall, I agree with your point that GMTM did a poor job building a good defense and that his analysis of defensemen doesn't line up with what is needed for success in the NHL today. 

[Robviously]

Haha no worries. I do it because I love it! I do have to sleep though it's been about 40 hours since I was able to for traveling and airport reasons. 

 

Overall, I agree with your point that GMTM did a poor job building a good defense and that his analysis of defensemen doesn't line up with what is needed for success in the NHL today. 

Goodnight.  I hope that by the time you wake up, the Sabres have made you a job offer.

[Randall Flagg]

Goodnight.  I hope that by the time you wake up, the Sabres have made you a job offer.

:beer:

[PASabreFan]

There have been many epic collapses against the Pens, especially in Pittsburgh, in the Igloo and whatever they are calling that building today. This was one of them.

 

Sorry, I know everyone's emotional because the hockey team is bad, but how did the Pegulas screw Buffalo again?

Our waterfront looked like a demilitarized zone a few years back before they showed up.

The Pegulas get credit for Canalside now? They put up rinks over a donut shop. Good for them.

 

They don't, though.  It's not like our ticket prices are super high.

 

Anyway, it's tough for me to see any way the Pegulas have been bad for the city.  They aren't good at owning winning teams but it's not really the type of job you can prepare for so they're learning as they go.  I'm hoping they get better.  (Soon.)

Their fatal flaw is something they shouldn't have had to learn (and still haven't learned from all accounts). They don't know they don't know what they're doing, and their massive egos will never allow them to step back. Terry would rather go oh-for-the-rest-of-his-life while playing fantasy owner than win a Cup and a Super Bowl while watching from Del Boca Vista. That's not fixable.

[Stads]

So I turned it off after the 1st to get some stuff done. Did I miss anything?

[inkman]

Yall pick some weird games to lose your .

[SwampD]

Yall pick some weird games to lose your ######.

:lol:

[Brawndo]

I'm going for a PhD in physics, starting this summer. Luckily hockey is my only hobby, but, particularly these next two years, I'm going to be strained for free time.

Aren't you the same Flagg who described himself as dumb as a box of rocks? ;)

 

Congratulations Buddy! That's quite an accomplishment!

[TrueBlueGED]

I'm going for a PhD in physics, starting this summer. Luckily hockey is my only hobby, but, particularly these next two years, I'm going to be strained for free time.

 

Neither here nor there, but have you decided where you're going yet? Or narrowed it down, anyway.

Edited March 6, 2017 by TrueBlueGED

[Doohickie]

They don't, though.  It's not like our ticket prices are super high.

 

Anyway, it's tough for me to see any way the Pegulas have been bad for the city.  They aren't good at owning winning teams but it's not really the type of job you can prepare for so they're learning as they go.  I'm hoping they get better.  (Soon.)

 

Not saying I agree.  Just trying to explain what I thought he was saying.

[DarthEbriate]

Most of the time when we picked up the puck in our zone we just flipped it back to the Pens. Not even an attempt to possess the puck for even a few seconds. Coaching? Conditioning? Players? ...who knows. But, this was a carbon copy of the Preds game a week ago.

It wouldn't be so bad if we dumped the puck in and then clogged the neutral zone so well that the opposition had no choice but to dump it back to our end -- then our excellent puck-playing goalie ala Brodeur would immediately clear the zone with a good pass or put it right to one of our D. No possession for anyone.

 

But alas, as soon as we dump the puck we go full-on retreat and allow them full speed into our zone. We play with a lead as though we were icing our AHL lineup of 2-3 seasons ago, instead of trying to pad our stats and dominate the opponent.

[Marvelo]

There have been many epic collapses against the Pens, especially in Pittsburgh, in the Igloo and whatever they are calling that building today. This was one of them.

 

The Pegulas get credit for Canalside now? They put up rinks over a donut shop. Good for them.

 

Their fatal flaw is something they shouldn't have had to learn (and still haven't learned from all accounts). They don't know they don't know what they're doing, and their massive egos will never allow them to step back. Terry would rather go oh-for-the-rest-of-his-life while playing fantasy owner than win a Cup and a Super Bowl while watching from Del Boca Vista. That's not fixable.

 

[carpandean]

I'm going for a PhD in physics, starting this summer. Luckily hockey is my only hobby, but, particularly these next two years, I'm going to be strained for free time.

 

Congratulations and good luck!  Every program is a little different, but what most have in common is that the first two years are very tough and designed to trim the group down.  In addition to the original acceptance letter, there were three other letters that we received in the first two-and-a-half years that could have said "you're done."

[Huckleberry]

Yall pick some weird games to lose your ######.

 

still say that goal was high stick :p

[Doohickie]

still say that goal was high stick :P

 

Simply couldn't tell from the angles.  The most definitive one I saw made it look like it contracted the puck just above waist level.

[dudacek]

I'm going for a PhD in physics, starting this summer. Luckily hockey is my only hobby, but, particularly these next two years, I'm going to be strained for free time.

Good luck.

[PASabreFan]

Yall pick some weird games to lose your ######.

I remember when your balls were as big as your calves.

 

Simply couldn't tell from the angles.  The most definitive one I saw made it look like it contracted the puck just above waist level.

It's an impossible call to make. I wonder what the variance is? A lot of goals are probably scored six inches to a foot above the bar. You just can't prove it. At least they get the obvious ones. Not sure what the answer is. Going back to shoulder height makes the most sense but is inherently unfair.

[Randall Flagg]

Neither here nor there, but have you decided where you're going yet? Or narrowed it down, anyway.

Nope! I have 2 more visits and haven't heard back from 8 yet, including 2 I'd really like to go to.

Congratulations and good luck! Every program is a little different, but what most have in common is that the first two years are very tough and designed to trim the group down. In addition to the original acceptance letter, there were three other letters that we received in the first two-and-a-half years that could have said "you're done."

You were physics too??

And thanks dudacek and BRAWNDO.

[PromoTheRobot]

Rape the fans of Buffalo

Yup. This market is so rich it's worth overpaying for two teams just to take advantage of us. :doh: Does Donald Trump write your hot takes?

[Eleven]

Yup. This market is so rich it's worth overpaying for two teams just to take advantage of us. :doh: Does Donald Trump write your hot takes?

 

I heard Pegula told Rex to punt in the Miami game.

[PromoTheRobot]

Sorry, I know everyone's emotional because the hockey team is bad, but how did the Pegulas screw Buffalo again?

 

Our waterfront looked like a demilitarized zone a few years back before they showed up.

Buffalo is obviously the most attractive sports market to plunder. The KBC is packed with fans paying $6 a ticket on StubHub. The Pegulas are laughing all the way to the bank. :blink:

That said, what is the record for blown leads in an NHL season?

[TrueBlueGED]

Nope! I have 2 more visits and haven't heard back from 8 yet , including 2 I'd really like to go to.

Well, that's annoying :lol:

[Robviously]

There have been many epic collapses against the Pens, especially in Pittsburgh, in the Igloo and whatever they are calling that building today. This was one of them.

 

The Pegulas get credit for Canalside now? They put up rinks over a donut shop. Good for them.

 

Their fatal flaw is something they shouldn't have had to learn (and still haven't learned from all accounts). They don't know they don't know what they're doing, and their massive egos will never allow them to step back. Terry would rather go oh-for-the-rest-of-his-life while playing fantasy owner than win a Cup and a Super Bowl while watching from Del Boca Vista. That's not fixable.

Rinks and a hotel over a donut shop is literally the most progress in Buffalo's waterfront maybe ever.  It's the most progress downtown since we finished building the Marine Midland Arena 20 years ago.  It's still super rare to see cranes building something in this city.

 

Oh, and the Bills didn't move to Toronto or LA because of them.  I guess that's also not worth being thankful for?

 

Everyone please get a grip.  Despite the fact that a couple new buildings went up downtown, Buffalo is still an insanely poor city .  The Pegulas investing in it is a good thing.