Zemgus Girgensons is (mostly) fine!

[TrueBlueGED]

I don't think it's much of a stretch to suggest that most of us were expecting Zemgus to have a better season than he's had, and I don't think it's a stretch at all to say we collectively expected him to score more than 5 goals. The first part of this post I hope to explain the output, then the second part I'll have some numbers on his impact outside of goal scoring.

 

The stats:

 

Shooting Percentage

As a rookie he shot 7%, as a sophomore he shot 13%, and this year he's at 5.3%. His career average is 8.642.

 

Time on Ice

Last season he averaged 19:05 per game, this season he's down 4 full minutes to 15:05 per game. So, what minutes did he lose? He's down from 1:58 of PP time per game to 45 seconds per game, so about a 62% reduction in PP time. His ES time is down 1:41 per game. So of his lost ice time, nearly all of it has come in situations that he would be expected to be able to produce offense.

 

Shot Generation

Zemgus' shot generation has remained amazingly consistent throughout his young career. His shots per minute of ice time, starting with his rookie season:

2013: .11

2014: .104

2015: .105  

 

Corsi% relative to team, forwards >300 ES minutes

2013: 2.1, 3rd on team trailing Larsson and...D'Agostini

2014: -3.6, 10th on team ahead of only Deslauriers and Kaleta --all hail Teds Nolans!

2015: 2.1, 4th on team behind Reinhart, Kane, and....Moulson (don't read too much into this one, Moulson's usage is drastically different than the others)

 

High Danger Scoring Chances per 60 minutes of ES ice time, team rank | HDSCF%, team rank

2013: 11.81, 3rd | 49%, 2nd

2014: 10.61, 4th | 40%, 8th

2015: 9.45, 8th   | 46.42%, 11th

 

Zone Starts

Outside of his misguided stint as 3rd line center, he's actually starting a bit more frequently in the offensive zone relative to teammates than in years past, as he's been sheltered on Jack's wing rather than the all-situations center of last year. The difference is really quite small though, ~2 percentage points different. It's also worth noting the entire team is starting more in the offensive zone, because ya know, not tanking.

 

Teammates: 4 most common forwards at even strength, with minutes together

2013: Flynn (369), Ennis (317), Moulson (221), Hodgson (162)

2014: Ennis (548), Moulson (410), Stewart (220), Gionta (154)

2015: Eichel (228), Gionta (215), Moulson (195), Larsson (186)

 

My Conclusion

Some bad puck luck, an uncertain role (huge spread of teammates, shutdown role to top-6 winger to playing with AHL call-ups during injury times), and far lower offensive opportunity have combined to torpedo his offensive output, but his underlying numbers are still pretty good. His shot generation is the same as ever, and he's still one of our top possession players. Without touching anything else, his shooting percentage being his career average and his ES & PP ice time being that of last season, he'd have 11 goals in 63 games. Last year he had 15 goals in 61 games. That's not far off, and if his SH% was the same as last year, he'd have 16 goals this season. While he's generating about 1 less high danger chance every ~4 games, he's also on the ice for far fewer against--his overall play on this metric is arguably better than last season.

 

I think most of the decline in his offensive output can be attributed to a change in role, with a simply more talented roster pushing him down the lineup, and a sprinkling of blame to Bylsma for thinking he was Jordan Staal at the start of the season. His underlying numbers being the same (or in some cases better) points mostly to changing circumstances as the culprit for his "decline." In fact, I don't think he's declined at all. Perhaps a better way of looking at it is he has stagnated to some degree, but the notion that he has regressed or fallen off a cliff is not empirically supported, in my view.

 

What about non-scoring aspects of hockey? AKA does he make those he plays with better?

In short, yes. He makes every single teammate he plays with better in goal scoring, goal prevention, and possession. When apart, he also suffers less of a dropoff in these categories than his linemate. Hell, just look at how good he is with Eichel, and compare their stats together to the Kane-Eichel-Reinhart line everybody loved. Zemgus himself may never be an offensive powerhouse, but he looks to be a pretty valuable complementary piece.

 

This post is already long so rather than typing more, I'll post a pdf of my Excel spreadsheet and the with or without you (WOWY) stats for his 4 most common linemates. Semi-small sample warning applies because his most common linemates have spent more time with other players, but it's all we have to work with. All numbers at even strength (I don't have score-adjusted because Puckalytics does not yet have it implemented, and going to close-situation would cut the sample down even further. I felt including all data was for the best).

 

Book1.pdf

Edited March 24, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[That Aud Smell]

Kudos on the work, sir.

 

Also: TL, DR.  :P

 

I look forward to Zemgus bouncing back next year. I feel like that story line will be one that is part of pushing the Sabres to the playoff bubble in 2017.

[qwksndmonster]

He's still good on the boards, but his play with the puck lately has been severely lacking in confidence.

 

Thanks for the stats, Blue.

[inkman]

Interesting. Surprising. Encouraging.

[WildCard]

Two things, True:

1) Where did you get the .pdf stats?

2)Do you have any stats on his zone entries, or performance based on position?

[TrueBlueGED]

Two things, True:

1) Where did you get the .pdf stats?

2)Do you have any stats on his zone entries, or performance based on position?

1) Puckalytics.com

 

2) No. I know there's proprietary stuff out that, but I'm not aware of anything publicly available. I doubt they'd be impressive though, controlled entries and stick handling through/around defensemen doesn't seem to be his thing.

 

Could do performance based on position using date ranges, but that would require knowing exactly when every position change happened then parsing the data properly and tallying it up. See: too much work :lol:

[pi2000]

 

Teammates: 4 most common forwards at even strength, with minutes together

2013: Flynn (369), Ennis (317), Moulson (221), Hodgson (162)

2014: Ennis (548), Moulson (410), Stewart (220), Gionta (154)

2015: Eichel (228), Gionta (215), Moulson (195), Larsson (186)

 

 

 

When he was drafted, he was projected as a 3rd line center.    He was thrust into the top of the lineup, notice all the minutes he's spent with Ennis the last few years.  

 

As you mentioned, he's been pushed down the lineup due to the influx of talent, and his numbers have declined.   Although I'd argue they've declined a bit too much for a guy who's spent significant time in the top 6 and who is at an age where they should be improving.    

 

Bylsma preaches a north/south system.   Rarely do you see the defensemen hinge the puck to their partner in the d-zone.    This is a noticeable change from years past.    What this does, however, is put pressure on the forwards to quickly regroup and head back up ice.    A guy like Moulson is a victim of this system due to his lack of speed.   I believe Girgensons doesn't fit very well in his system either. 

[WildCard]

Well the question now is, as he seems good compadres to his teammates, how is he relative to the league? Can we win with him going forward?

[TrueBlueGED]

When he was drafted, he was projected as a 3rd line center. He was thrust into the top of the lineup, notice all the minutes he's spent with Ennis the last few years.

 

As you mentioned, he's been pushed down the lineup due to the influx of talent, and his numbers have declined. Although I'd argue they've declined a bit too much for a guy who's spent significant time in the top 6 and who is at an age where they should be improving.

 

Bylsma preaches a north/south system. Rarely do you see the defensemen hinge the puck to their partner in the d-zone. This is a noticeable change from years past. What this does, however, is put pressure on the forwards to quickly regroup and head back up ice. A guy like Moulson is a victim of this system due to his lack of speed. I believe Girgensons doesn't fit very well in his system either.

The age point is fair, but you and I definitely define "significant time in the top-6" much differently. A clear majority of his time has been spent in the bottom-6 this season.

 

As to the system, time will tell. As others have mentioned plenty of times, this is his first time in any kind of a real pro sysyem--his previous coaches have been Rolston (both the AHL and NHL) and Nolan. He had a cup of coffee with Ruff, that's it. I'd like to see him have more time.

Well the question now is, as he seems good compadres to his teammates, how is he relative to the league? Can we win with him going forward?

To be determined, I think. He seems to me like exactly the type of cost efficient secondary piece teams like LA, Anaheim, and Chicago place around their stars. In a permanent top-6 role I think he would give McGinn-level offense while being much better at every other aspect of the game. Edited March 24, 2016 by TrueBlueGED

[WildCard]

To be determined, I think. He seems to me like exactly the type of cost efficient secondary piece teams like LA, Anaheim, and Chicago place around their stars. In a permanent top-6 role I think he would give McGinn-level offense while being much better at every other aspect of the game.

Could he play the Shaw role that Chicago employs?

[PASabreFan]

Read it. Maybe even learned something from it. Well done, Blue.

[Weave]

Could he play the Shaw role that Chicago employs?

 

Jarret Stoll.  What I was hoping Zemgus would become.

[Darryl Shannon's +/-]

Selfishly a down year coming into his RFA contract isn't a bad thing for the team going forward. 

[Thorny]

To be determined, I think. He seems to me like exactly the type of cost efficient secondary piece teams like LA, Anaheim, and Chicago place around their stars. In a permanent top-6 role I think he would give McGinn-level offense while being much better at every other aspect of the game.

 

Original post was very informative, and this bit here is very encouraging. You've certainly convinced me to take a more wait-and-see approach in regards to Girgensons.

[Doohickie]

I just like TrueBlue's use of the word complementary. Noice.

[dudacek]

Good to see the fancy stats support the eye test on Girg's all-around game.

Nice work Blue.

 

I have a small quibble with the PP part of the piece.

Despite all the PP time he had last year, his PP production was abysmal: 1 goal and 4 points.

So you can't really blame that for his poor production.

 

What I miss most in the eye test are those big play skill moves he uncorked rushing the puck from time to time and the number of impressive turnovers he caused by hounding the puck seem down.

I peg both on his attempts to stay within Bylsma's system.

Edited March 25, 2016 by dudacek

[TrueBlueGED]

Good to see the fancy stats support the eye test on Girg's all-around game.

Nice work Blue.

 

I have a small quibble with the PP part of the piece.

Despite all the PP time he had last year, his PP production was abysmal: 1 goal and 4 points.

So you can't really blame that for his poor production.

 

What I miss most in the eye test are those big play skill moves he uncorked rushing the puck from time to time and the number of impressive turnovers he caused by hounding the puck seem down.

I peg both on his attempts to stay within Bylsma's system.

 

This is what I get for making an assumption and not confirming. Good catch. Though our PP is worlds better this season (15th vs 30th), so maybe he'd have made more of his time there if given a greater opportunity? Who knows. Maybe he just stinks on the PP. 

[Randall Flagg]

This is what I get for making an assumption and not confirming. Good catch. Though our PP is worlds better this season (15th vs 30th), so maybe he'd have made more of his time there if given a greater opportunity? Who knows. Maybe he just stinks on the PP.

I pulled my hair out when he passed out of the slot to the point last game. He definitely doesn't look very confident right now, and it shows in power play situations.

[TrueBlueGED]

I pulled my hair out when he passed out of the slot to the point last game. He definitely doesn't look very confident right now, and it shows in power play situations.

 

That may have been among the worst decisions I've ever seen a player make on the PP. 

[...]

Haven't looked at the PDF yet, but I will. A compelling study on Z's progress. I will need to find out what a "high danger scoring chance" is before I can say I see the picture with 100% accuracy.

 

But I think you've supported your conclusion well enough for me despite my uncertainty about that particular stat. I'm not sure he is the right complimentary piece for our top 6 talent, though, unless he either gains an additional 10 lbs of muscle and the equivalence in nasty, or can increase his simple offensive output to something that is truly complimentary.

 

Otherwise, he will get pushed down the lineup again and will, essentially, have no place to go. The third line is set, IMHO, while Gionta is still here. He's really not a fourth line guy, and he doesn't belong on the PP. All that would be left for him is the PK.

 

The saving grace is Foligno and his growth this year. If Z can follow a similar trajectory next season I can see him sticking around, but if not, he's gone.

[nucci]

When he was drafted, he was projected as a 3rd line center.    He was thrust into the top of the lineup, notice all the minutes he's spent with Ennis the last few years.  

 

As you mentioned, he's been pushed down the lineup due to the influx of talent, and his numbers have declined.   Although I'd argue they've declined a bit too much for a guy who's spent significant time in the top 6 and who is at an age where they should be improving.    

 

Bylsma preaches a north/south system.   Rarely do you see the defensemen hinge the puck to their partner in the d-zone.    This is a noticeable change from years past.    What this does, however, is put pressure on the forwards to quickly regroup and head back up ice.    A guy like Moulson is a victim of this system due to his lack of speed.   I believe Girgensons doesn't fit very well in his system either. 

I would have had higher expectations for the 14th pick in the draft.

[That Aud Smell]

I would have had higher expectations for the 14th pick in the draft.

Looking at 14th overall picks, and it seems like your mileage starts to vary. Brent Seabrook is there at #14, sure. As are several good NHLers. But so too are Sasha Pokulok and Jamieson Oleksiak. Oh, and Jeff Jillson.

 

Getting more out of Zemgus next season is probably one of the team's biggest needs.

[jsb]

First thing I like Girgs but his production has been nothing short of atrocious this year.

Playing with Reinhart and Jack who have 14 SOG in their last 5 games, Girgs has 4

Deslauriers gets better linemates he has twice as many SOGs in the same time frame

He has 1 point in his last 5 games playing with these 2 guys and getting PP minutes, annual total at this rate 16

He has less points than Moulson and Franson this year.

 

I'm impressed with the information you put forth True but if anybody deserves a bunker it's this guy

He's shown nothing but 4th line production so far and no offense to him, hopefully if this continues the team is able to add enough firepower to do just that next year.

 

 

 

 

[SwampD]

I can't believe he is only 22. I guess we had to expect a down year after his whirlwind season last year, what with the ASG and all. I think Zemgus will be fine once he matures a little more and figures out how to incorporate his high motor into system play. Again, I can't believe he is only 22

[hsif]

The saving grace is Foligno and his growth this year. If Z can follow a similar trajectory next season I can see him sticking around, but if not, he's gone.

 This......

A year ago, I'd have switched the names......