Johnny DangerFace Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Watkins trade will be looked at favorably if we become a good team. You all are over thinking it. If our line is good this year and clay is good at TE, then what exactly did Watkins cause us to miss out on. I didn't see anything to hint we would take ODB at 9 last year, I thought it was gonna be Enron (could be wrong about that). But Watkins + clay kills 19th pick + ebron. Now if we would've taken ODB at 9 without a trade, then that's another thing. Also it's been 1 year. Judging that draft is only a little less silly than judging this draft Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
darksabre Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Players that were available at 19 that have a good chance of having an impact right away and would've here: - Cameron Irving, OL, Florida State - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M - Bud Depree, DE/OLB, Kentucky - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida (the name a few said they think Buffalo would've taken) - Byron Jones, CB/S, UConn - Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke - Landon Collins, S, Alabama Any of those offensive linemen above would've likely started right away. Doubt Miller starts right away. He might be able to compete, but he probably isn't an immediate upgrade. I would have taken Bud Depree on name alone. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Players that were available at 19 that have a good chance of having an impact right away and would've here: - Cameron Irving, OL, Florida State - Cedric Ogbuehi, OT, Texas A&M - Bud Depree, DE/OLB, Kentucky - DJ Humphries, OT, Florida (the name a few said they think Buffalo would've taken) - Byron Jones, CB/S, UConn - Laken Tomlinson, OG, Duke - Landon Collins, S, Alabama Any of those offensive linemen above would've likely started right away. Doubt Miller starts right away. He might be able to compete, but he probably isn't an immediate upgrade. You can either see the future or you are just making stuff up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 So it was this year's 4th. :oops: I just now realized that there was a 4th involved in that deal at all. So now it's even worse. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 (edited) You can either see the future or you are just making stuff up I can see the future, but it doesn't really apply here. Those players were indeed available at 19 and they are all very talented. They would've competed for playing time and many will make an impact with their current team and would've made an impact here. Also, the Miller comment is easy enough. In a weak draft a third rounder probably isn't expected to start right away. Just because the opinion might not match your's doesn't mean I'm not allowed to have it. Edited May 3, 2015 by Hoss Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dudacek Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 I'm not to worried about the price, I just know he is a rare weapon, even injured with Marrone as his coach and Orton as his QB. Unless injuries spoil him, he will be remembered as the best offensive player on this team since Thurman and maybe since OJ. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WildCard Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Posted Today, 12:26 PM Ryan retweeted Jon Alhart @JonAlhart 21m21 minutes ago The #Bills could have the worst draft, but to give a grade now is ridic. For reference, check out Kiper 2009 gems. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 ^^ Accurate. Nobody knows what will actually happen. All you can do is judge the value that the teams got with the picks they have. At this point it doesn't look like the Bills did well... But maybe in a few years Miller is starting at guard, Darby gives the Bills a great tandem with Gilmore and one of the later picks is making a big impact. We'll see. Doesn't look good right now, but they weren't in a position for much of a good draft anyways. They built in free agency which has proven to be a horrible idea for a long time, but I've got faith that it'll work out this time around. Really excited for this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Draft experts are dumb. I'd be very surprised if any of them were better than a coin flip over time when it comes to player evaluation. How many times would guys like Kiper and McShay been fired if they were GMs? And that's not even getting into the Internet heroes who have ugly, cheap websites, and manage to claim expertise. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Draft experts are dumb. I'd be very surprised if any of them were better than a coin flip over time when it comes to player evaluation. How many times would guys like Kiper and McShay been fired if they were GMs? And that's not even getting into the Internet heroes who have ugly, cheap websites, and manage to claim expertise. McShay used to be a scout. Now he's just a guy that talks about the draft and tans too much. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Isn't value impossible to know since we know exactly 0 nfl draft boards? Mock people can do pretty decent of picking the 1st round guys, but that's about it. So we're really gonna judge the value based on those guys? As far as I'm concerned, value is relative to something else. Since we don't have anything of significance to compare it to, we can't determine value Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 I'm not to worried about the price, I just know he is a rare weapon, even injured with Marrone as his coach and Orton as his QB. Unless injuries spoil him, he will be remembered as the best offensive player on this team since Thurman and maybe since OJ. Injuries are part of the player. Their size, toughness, etc. You have to take that into account when taking guys. Considering Whaley has no clue on the O-Line and we will be starting Matt Cassel at QB, the trade is a burnout right now. You could have had Torry Smith or Andre Johnson for free this year. You could have used your 1st this year to get a vet QB on the market...Bradford,Cutler, Foles. You could have used the 4th last year on John Urschel at guard. #OneBuffalo!!! You then could have used the #9 last year to trade down or take Zach Martin, Beckham, or Donald....all taken within 5 picks and in the Pro Bowl. It's not fair to compare to Beckham, so.....Watkins......or Sam Bradford, Zack Martin, John Urschel, and Torry Smith? This is realistic, and before anyone wants to flame me, feel free to check out my rankings of players in the 2014 draft thread, who I thought we could take, and my begging to trade down. McShay used to be a scout. Now he's just a guy that talks about the draft and tans too much. And makes 6x the amount of money he did as a scout......... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 Speaking of scouting..... In the past 3 years of being GM, Doug Whaley has taken 20 of 21 picks from schools SOUTH of Louisville, KY. In the past 5 years the Bills have selected 36 of 39 players south of Louisville. I wonder how the scouts feel about this. One of 2 things. The scouts of the Big 10, Big 12 (outside of TX), Big East, mid majors have zero skill or input....or Whaley is goofy. To compare....let's look at the teams that made the Super Bowl in the same 5 year timeframe..... Buffalo....... 3 draft picks north of Louisville, KY 3/39 7% Whaley alone in the GM chair for 3 years is 1/21 4% New England.....16 draft picks north of Louisville, Ky 16./43 37% Seattle......21 picks north of Louisville, KY 21/47 44% Denver......14 picks north of Louisville, Ky 14/38 36% Baltimore....17 picks north of Louisville, KY 17/44 38% San Francisco......16 picks north of Louisville, KY 16/50 32% NY Giants......18 picks north of Louisville, KY 18/35 51% These are the best of the best......same GM and coach every year except for the firing of Fox and Harbaugh this offseason. This isn't "small sample size". It's pretty obvious the strike rate is about 35% in taking Northern kids with the Super Bowl teams. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted May 3, 2015 Report Share Posted May 3, 2015 What made you choose Louisville and what do the rest of the teams look like over the same sample? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Isn't value impossible to know since we know exactly 0 nfl draft boards? Mock people can do pretty decent of picking the 1st round guys, but that's about it. So we're really gonna judge the value based on those guys? As far as I'm concerned, value is relative to something else. Since we don't have anything of significance to compare it to, we can't determine value Opinions. This isn't just some blind study. When just about every expert agrees on something I'm inclined to think that many around the league and in these draft rooms have the same thoughts. It's not like there's a draft nerd convention where all the experts get together to make sure their opinions on a potential 3rd round pick match. Next to nobody thinks the Bills did well. At the moment, it appears they had a poor draft. I hope that's wrong in a few years, but the value they got wasn't great. This is one of those things that I brought up at some point in the last year... The experts are only shitheads when we don't value what they're saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K-9 Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 McShay used to be a scout. Now he's just a guy that talks about the draft and tans too much. Not in the traditional sense. Far from it. Suffice to say, he didn't have the kind of access and information enjoyed by and shared among scouts from either major cooperative as well as dedicated team scouts. GO BILLS!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TrueBlueGED Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Opinions. This isn't just some blind study. When just about every expert agrees on something I'm inclined to think that many around the league and in these draft rooms have the same thoughts. It's not like there's a draft nerd convention where all the experts get together to make sure their opinions on a potential 3rd round pick match. Next to nobody thinks the Bills did well. At the moment, it appears they had a poor draft. I hope that's wrong in a few years, but the value they got wasn't great. This is one of those things that I brought up at some point in the last year... The experts are only shitheads when we don't value what they're saying. Most of the criticism I've read is the Bills didn't address enough areas of need to grade out highly, not necessarily that they got poor value. Which is kind of a bogus argument, since if you're drafting 5th rounders and expecting them to start, then you've already lost. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoss Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 McShay was really getting picked apart by "league sources" around the time he got promoted to Kiper's sidekick.. That should tell you just about everything you need to know about ESPN's production plans. However, the biggest hate came from people around the league because of how staunchly against drafting Tebow and Clausen he was. He turned out to be very right about both. Strange that he gets hate for being right one of the few times he has been. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ghost of Dwight Drane Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 What made you choose Louisville and what do the rest of the teams look like over the same sample? Well they are getting knocks for FSU.....and it is obvious they have a thing for "the south" and the acc or sec. I think.....what is south? Kentucky most people would say is that. It doesn't include West Virginia...which I would, but then again in this example, Oklahoma is considered south instead of north which is sort of backwards. USC/UCLA/Stanford also considered south. It's not perfect......but the eye test says....."This M'F'r is drafting everything in groin chafing land." So the first thing I thought to do is compare that against the best teams. Feel free to to look all teams up, or think of other geographic devides.......bottom line is that the Bills are a 1 trick draft pony. Again, who in their right mind would scout the Big-10 or Big East, or Big 12, or mid majors for them? 5 years and nada.........either the scouts are horrible, or they are just cashing checks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Well they are getting knocks for FSU.....and it is obvious they have a thing for "the south" and the acc or sec. I think.....what is south? Kentucky most people would say is that. It doesn't include West Virginia...which I would, but then again in this example, Oklahoma is considered south instead of north which is sort of backwards. USC/UCLA/Stanford also considered south. It's not perfect......but the eye test says....."This M'F'r is drafting everything in groin chafing land." So the first thing I thought to do is compare that against the best teams. Feel free to to look all teams up, or think of other geographic devides.......bottom line is that the Bills are a 1 trick draft pony. Again, who in their right mind would scout the Big-10 or Big East, or Big 12, or mid majors for them? 5 years and nada.........either the scouts are horrible, or they are just cashing checks. By common definition, south is below the Mason Dixon line which means Maryland and below Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
inkman Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 By common definition, south is below the Mason Dixon line which means Maryland and below http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Southern_United_States_Civil_War_map.png Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 (edited) By common definition, south is below the Mason Dixon line which means Maryland and below http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/f/f8/Southern_United_States_Civil_War_map.png Yes, but the Mason-Dixon line, which predates America, much less the Civil War, defines the Penna.-Md. border. It is true that some Marylanders fought on the side of the South, and some North, but that is not what defines the lines that Messrs. Mason and Dixon surveyed. The cultural change between Penna. and Md. is palpable. W. Va. and Md., not so much, ESPECIALLY in that portion of Md. that borders W. Va. And Delaware is thoroughly northern. It's basically Filthadelphia. OTOH, WJAG, I will never consider Maryland to be a Southern state. It's just not. Edited May 4, 2015 by Eleven Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wjag Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Yes, but the Mason-Dixon line, which predates America, much less the Civil War, defines the Penna.-Md. border. It is true that some Marylanders fought on the side of the South, but that is not what defines the lines that Messrs. Mason and Dixon surveyed. "The Mason–Dixon line (or Mason's and Dixon's line) was surveyed between 1763 and 1767 by Charles Mason andJeremiah Dixon in the resolution of a border dispute involving Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware in Colonial America. It is still a demarcation line among four U.S. states, forming part of the borders of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia (originally part of Virginia). It represents the cultural border between the Southern United States and the Northern United States." from Wiki Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eleven Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 "The Mason–Dixon line (or Mason's and Dixon's line) was surveyed between 1763 and 1767 by Charles Mason andJeremiah Dixon in the resolution of a border dispute involving Maryland, Pennsylvania, Delaware in Colonial America. It is still a demarcation line among four U.S. states, forming part of the borders of Pennsylvania, Maryland, Delaware, and West Virginia (originally part of Virginia). It represents the cultural border between the Southern United States and the Northern United States." from Wiki Is that not what I said? Even including most of my edits? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Johnny DangerFace Posted May 4, 2015 Report Share Posted May 4, 2015 Opinions. This isn't just some blind study. When just about every expert agrees on something I'm inclined to think that many around the league and in these draft rooms have the same thoughts. It's not like there's a draft nerd convention where all the experts get together to make sure their opinions on a potential 3rd round pick match. Next to nobody thinks the Bills did well. At the moment, it appears they had a poor draft. I hope that's wrong in a few years, but the value they got wasn't great. This is one of those things that I brought up at some point in the last year... The experts are only shitheads when we don't value what they're saying. Sorry in my opinion, that's just a load of crap. If value is determined by how close you matched mock draft big boards then that is laughable. For starters, there is so much variation starting in round 2, and only increases afterwards. Two, it takes systems into no account which is huge in the NFL. Third, its stupid. Anytime someone goes against the mock big boards, its a bad value pick. Anytime someone picks someone that is dropping, its a good value pick. It sounds so silly. Bruce irvin was such a bad value pick. But trent richardson was spot on value! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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