Do the Sabres have the worst goaltending in the Eastern Conference?

[LGR4GM]

Dust has settled and it appears the goalie carousel has stopped. I like Lyons and think Buffalo did a good job bringing him in, but did they actually improve the goaltending? 

Do we have the worst goaltending in the East? If not, who would you rank below us? How would you rank all 16 Eastern teams?

To help this along... I limited to 5v5mins and 1000 minutes or more of TOI. That's roughly around 17 games played which helps eliminate some of the other fringe goalies. UPL ranks 53rd with -12.6gsaa (goals saved above average). Alex Lyon is at 42 with a -4.77gsaa. This is out of 58 qualifying goalies. Now we should note that I am not looing at GSAA based on TOI so Lyons has less but he also has half the toi. 

Edited yesterday at 02:59 PM by LGR4GM

[thewookie1]

Better than:

Philly

 

Possibly better than:

Carolina (Andersen is frequently injured)

Pittsburgh (Silovs has potential and Jarry is Russian Roulette)

Columbus (Merzlikins has declined greatly the last 3 years and their back up I have never heard of)

Red Wings (Gibson, which version shows up and for how long?)

[JP51]

41 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Dust has settled and it appears the goalie carousel has stopped. I like Lyons and think Buffalo did a good job bringing him in, but did they actually improve the goaltending? 

Do we have the worst goaltending in the East? If not, who would you rank below us? How would you rank all 16 Eastern teams?

To help this along... I limited to 5v5mins and 1000 minutes or more of TOI. That's roughly around 17 games played which helps eliminate some of the other fringe goalies. UPL ranks 53rd with -12.6gsaa (goals saved above average). Alex Lyon is at 42 with a -4.77gsaa. This is out of 58 qualifying goalies. Now we should note that I am not looing at GSAA based on TOI so Lyons has less but he also has half the toi. 

I am not sure about worst... I think we are closer to the over all worst defensive play to include defenseman and forwards playing two way...  I clearly an no where near enamoured with our goaltending... but, I am interested to see if it overall looks better if we have more of a two way team...  

[dudacek]

I think one thing that got overlooked in the big losing streak last season was how it effectively broke UPL.

After a slowish start, he had an excellent November with a .926 SP and a GAA under 2.

To my eyes, he reacted to the losses piling up in December by trying to do too much, overextending and getting caught out of position and his mechanics reverted to the AHL UPL.

I think he’s an average goalie who can win a lot of games behind a structured defence. At least that’s what he showed 2 years ago.

But he can get inside his own head and he’s out of his element when things break down.

I think his success or lack thereof will hinge on the predictability of the play in front of him.

[dudacek]

The interesting complement to my post above, is that Lyon is kinda the opposite of UPL.

Hes a guy who can get leaky when the team is playing solid hockey, then stand on his head when things break down.

The key to making the playoffs might be having the right goalie in to match whatever Sabre defence decides to show up.

[pi2000]

GMKA seems to think the goaltending metrics will improve if they play better team defense.

Is there any evidence to support this?

[Taro T]

30 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think one thing that got overlooked in the big losing streak last season was how it effectively broke UPL.

After a slowish start, he had an excellent November with a .926 SP and a GAA under 2.

To my eyes, he reacted to the losses piling up in December by trying to do too much, overextending and getting caught out of position and his mechanics reverted to the AHL UPL.

I think he’s an average goalie who can win a lot of games behind a structured defence. At least that’s what he showed 2 years ago.

But he can get inside his own head and he’s out of his element when things break down.

I think his success or lack thereof will hinge on the predictability of the play in front of him.

The biggest issue UPL has, and on many levels it's not a good one to have, is between the ears.  

He seems to need outside reinforcement to believe in his own abilities.  And, when things start going ferkakta he isn't going to get positive outside reinforcement.  Is it something he can't/ won't be able to overcome; not necessarily.  He did an admirable job of getting beyond the mental reluctance to push his hips to their limit after surgery that season that they just missed the playoffs by 1/2 points.  During that stretch and 1 or 2 others, he's shown an ability to truly believe in himself.  Maybe he can do it again.  For our sakes and the Sabres sake, we really need him to do that again.

When he's been focused, he's shown an ability to move post to post that few men that big can do.  But he's too easily taken off his game and then he overplays pucks and he gets too low in his stance and suddenly the glove misses things it should catch and the area above his shoulder and below the crossbar (which should NEVER be open when he's square due to his size) open up.

The level that having his issues lie in his head is good (possibly great) is that if he can ever consistently get out of his own head, he has the physical tools to be one of the best in the entire league.  And, the switch from subpar to superb can LITERALLY be like a light switch going on.  If he were on my payroll, would insist he see a sports psychologist (maybe Ryan Miller's is taking new clients) because whatever money that costs would be 100% worth it should the lightbulb not only go on, but stay on.

IF all 3 guys they have bring their A games, the Sabres could have one of the 5 best goaltending situations in the entire league.  But, as of now, we should expect about the 22nd or so best goaltending situations because that's a smidge better than the 3 they have have been when looking at their entire bodies of work and 2 of the 3 are getting closer to / into their primes.

[Weave]

Sabres goaltending probably has the lowest floor.  Probably not the lowest ceiling.

[GASabresIUFAN]

On paper the Sabres are the worst goaltending group in the East and probably the NHL.  
 

Lyon is a career journeyman who has played for 5 teams and never established himself as a starter in the NHL.  The last two years in Det were his best opportunity and he gave them Reimer level goaltending.  

Levi, besides his first games after college, has shown very little that he’s ready to be a full time NHL goalie.

UPL has had one good season in 5 pro seasons and 3 of the other 4 seasons were lousy at best.

It’s possible one of the 3 steps up and gives the Sabres NHL average goaltending.  If that happens, the Sabres will be improved, but I’m not optimistic.

[GoPuckYourself]

Yes this is the worst, we have 2 backups on any other team starting for us. 

[Thorny]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

GMKA seems to think the goaltending metrics will improve if they play better team defense.

Is there any evidence to support this?

I feel like it’s indisputable goaltending metrics improve with better defensive play because they’ll take less good shots and let in less goals. And good goalie play would increase D metrics as they’d be on the ice for less against 

I’m not sure there’s evidence to suggest we’ve improved anywhere, but yes, assuming improvement in one facet I think it bleeds into others 

this is functional in the shell game argument I always make. Issues can manifest in more than one way. I don’t think it’s guarantee our offence produces to the rate it was if our team D is more effective. Without proper outside supplementation it’s tended to yo-yo year over year 

The issues of youth and inexperience and lack of overall talent tent to pop up in different places when one hole is plugged 

maybe whack a mole is a better analogy. But same principle

[LGR4GM]

5 hours ago, pi2000 said:

GMKA seems to think the goaltending metrics will improve if they play better team defense.

Is there any evidence to support this?

Not with Wilford here and not with the least experienced team in the league. 

[Night Train]

UPL

 

[Big Guava]

Probably

[Scottysabres]

Yes, but they do

[DarthEbriate]

If Luukkonen can't recover his second-half of 2023-24 self, then yes. Lyon will give you solid backup numbers, but that's better than Luukkonen has been with the exception of that one half-season (December/January excellence, and otherwise fairly consistent).

A point on that consistency in 23-24, Luukkonen had a quality start rate of 67%. He was consistently solid, a few duds, and two excellent months where the team should have won more games. Thus far it appears to be the anomaly, however. But if he can be that goalie again for 50 starts.... 

Hope is the best strategy in the history of ever.

[spndnchz]

5 hours ago, Night Train said:

UPL

 

That was,…

[PerreaultForever]

15 hours ago, thewookie1 said:

Better than:

Philly

 

Possibly better than:

Carolina (Andersen is frequently injured)

Pittsburgh (Silovs has potential and Jarry is Russian Roulette)

Columbus (Merzlikins has declined greatly the last 3 years and their back up I have never heard of)

Red Wings (Gibson, which version shows up and for how long?)

Don't be so sure about Philly. I mean probably, but Ersson can be better than UPL and Vladar can be as good if not better than Lyon. Problem they've had is the 2 Russians were awful and Ersson got burned out. Ersson with a lighter workload could be better than UPL. 

The possibles are all possibles except for Silovs. I really like him and think he might be pretty good. Other teams would say the same thing you say about Gibson about UPL. 

I think the bottom line is IF goaltending is the key factor to making the playoffs we won't. 

[Archie Lee]

Since Lindy Ruff was fired as Sabre head coach in 2012, here is where his teams have finished in expected goals against all situations and goals against above expected all situations (source is MoneyPuck, the 1st # is expected goals against and the 2nd # is goals against above expected; 1 is the best, 30-32 is the worst).

2013-14 Dallas:        25 / 7

2014-15 Dallas:        23 / 29

2015-16 Dallas:        20 / 23 

2016-17 Dallas:        29 / 20

2020-21 Jersey:      27 / 27

2021-22 Jersey:      15 / 31

2022-23 Jersey:      3  / 14

2023-24 Jersey:     23 / 27

2024-25 Buffalo:     28 / 25 

Averages: 21st in expected goals against and 22nd in goals against above expected. 

This is the guy that Pegula and Adams were so sure would bring structure and defensive focus to a group of young players craving to be held accountable, that they eschewed an actual coaching search and just hired him. We are learning, I think, that there is more to defense, structure, and accountability than just yelling at players to manage the puck better.

The good news, I guess, is that that there are two big outliers. We can hope that some combination of our goalies does for the Sabres what the Dallas goalies did in 2013-14 and they far out-play the defense in front of them.  Or, we can hope that we somehow just play most of the season in the other team's end, like Jersey did in 22-23. 

Goaltending absolutely needs to be better. Under Ruff, goalies typically need to have near heroic performances to overcome what happens in front of them.  

Edited 9 hours ago by Archie Lee

[Porous Five Hole]

22 hours ago, dudacek said:

I think he’s an average goalie who can win a lot of games behind a structured defence. At least that’s what he showed 2 years ago.

 

LOL we are out here calling the Granato/Wilford youngest team in hockey a structured defense now? I’m trying to be funny here…

UPL’s one “good” year was an average year for an NHL goaltender. 16th in save percentage and 16th in goals saved above average.

He got hot enough to be NHL average for 50 games.  
 

Unfortunately, the only thing we have in the crease right now is hope. 

[Drag0nDan]

20 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

On paper the Sabres are the worst goaltending group in the East and probably the NHL.  
 

Lyon is a career journeyman who has played for 5 teams and never established himself as a starter in the NHL.  The last two years in Det were his best opportunity and he gave them Reimer level goaltending.  

Levi, besides his first games after college, has shown very little that he’s ready to be a full time NHL goalie.

UPL has had one good season in 5 pro seasons and 3 of the other 4 seasons were lousy at best.

It’s possible one of the 3 steps up and gives the Sabres NHL average goaltending.  If that happens, the Sabres will be improved, but I’m not optimistic.

I think they bungled it last year pretty badly.  Levi making the team and then being a backup was just such a weird decision. If Levi makes the roster, i would assume it is to start because you believe he is going to give you the best chance to win.  I also feel like... i don't want to say quick to hook - but you can't just have another completely lost season by january.  This is (should be anyway) a season where likely the entire coaching staff and management are potentially let go if they can't get the team over the hump.  

[Drag0nDan]

14 minutes ago, Archie Lee said:

Since Lindy Ruff was fired as Sabre head coach in 2012, here is where his teams have finished in expected goals against all situations and goals against above expected all situations (source is MoneyPuck, the 1st # is expected goals against and the 2nd # is goals against above expected; 1 is the best, 30-32 is the worst).

2013-14 Dallas:        25 / 7

2014-15 Dallas:        23 / 29

2015-16 Dallas:        20 / 23 

2016-17 Dallas:        29 / 20

2020-21 Jersey:      27 / 27

2021-22 Jersey:      15 / 31

2022-23 Jersey:      3  / 14

2023-24 Jersey:     23 / 27

2024-25 Buffalo:     28 / 25 

Averages: 21st in expected goals against and 22nd in goals against above expected. 

This is the guy that Pegula and Adams were so sure would bring structure and defensive focus to a group of young players craving to be held accountable, that they eschewed an actual coaching search and just hired him. We are learning, I think, that there is more to defense, structure, and accountability than just yelling at players to manage the puck better.

The good news, I guess, is that that there are two big outliers. We can hope that some combination of our goalies does for the Sabres what the Dallas goalies did in 2013-14 and they far out-play the defense in front of them.  Or, we can hope that we somehow just play most of the season in the other team's end, like Jersey did in 22-23. 

Goaltending absolutely needs to be better. Under Ruff, goalies typically need to have near heroic performances to overcome what happens in front of them.  

I can't name a single defenseman who played for those dallas teams - and i know they had lehtonen the entire time and while he played a lot of games, at his best he was not a top 10 or probably even 15 goalie in the league. 

The best season in jersey was when they had a healthy and motivated Dougie Hamilton.  The season after that he missed time, and Ruff was fired.  

[LGR4GM]

You know what sucks? Part me thinks there's a narrow path to making the playoffs but another part of me hopes they miss just because that will force Terry's hand to blow up this front office and maybe just maybe hire adults. 

[Eleven]

Well, a free agent goalie who is better than Lyon just became available.

[thewookie1]

9 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Well, a free agent goalie who is better than Lyon just became available.

I can't imagine the Sabres doing it; the PR would create more hand wringing than they'd deem acceptable.