Annual expectations thread 2023/24: #37 Casey Mittelstadt

[dudacek]

It has been a long, hard slog, but last year Mittelstadt finally gave Buffalo fans a taste of what made their imaginations soar in the 2018 WJC. After an at-times painful start, Casey took off in the New Year. His 40 points in 2023 ranked him tied for 42nd among NHL forwards with Jake Guentzel and Joe Pavelski, just ahead of Sebastian Aho and Jesper Bratt.  His 32 assists tied him for 15th with Tim Stutzle. Over the full season he finished 4th in the entire league in primary assists per 60, sandwiched between Draisaitl and Matt Tkachuk.

https://www.hockeydb.com/ihdb/stats/pdisplay.php?pid=192483

It was interesting to see the number of people backpedaling this spring with weak statements like “I thought he was a bust, but I’ll admit he’s a good 3rd-liner”. In terms of ice time, Mittelstadt was the Sabres clear #5 forward. In terms of point production, he was actually a fringe 1st-liner, finishing 84th among all NHL forwards in scoring. For the 1st time in his career, he was also a positive possession player 5-on-5. One open question is how much those numbers were a mirage boosted by a mad streak of 17 points in his final 11 games, much of that time spent centring the first line. Another open question is ‘do the Sabres have the depth to properly support repeats from each of Mitts, Tage and Cozens?’ Finally, is he actually even going to play centre this season?

What do you expect from Mittelstadt this year?
(Last year’s takes here)
https://www.sabrespace.com/community/topic/33397-annual-expectations-thread-202223-37-casey-mittelstadt/#comment-1520503

 

 

Edited September 3, 2023 by dudacek

[thewookie1]

To me he’ll likely stay a quiet enigma who has games all over the spectrum and if he stays healthy will get between 45-60 pts. Mind you it will primarily be assists so something akin to 14g 39a for 53pts. Where he will show up is in big moments near season’s end and potentially in the playoffs as well.

[Zamboni]

I am hoping Mitts takes another solid step forward. Even if it means he’s pretty identical to last season… At least that would show some consistency… Which is then a step forward. I’d like to see him Play a solid 200 foot game. And grab 50-60 points in a pretty healthy season.

[Claude Balls]

1 hour ago, thewookie1 said:

To me he’ll likely stay a quiet enigma who has games all over the spectrum and if he stays healthy will get between 45-60 pts. Mind you it will primarily be assists so something akin to 14g 39a for 53pts. Where he will show up is in big moments near season’s end and potentially in the playoffs as well.

And therewithin lies the problem. He's a no show for too long. I don't know why he gets better the later the season gets. He needs to show up for 82 games if he really wants to take the next step.   

[GASabresIUFAN]

20g 45a 65 pts player center and wing on all 3 top lines, but mostly as Cozens wingman helping Dylan to 35 goals.

Edited September 3, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[North Buffalo]

100 points and we all bow to the neon God we made.

[JustOneParade]

I find it interesting that some (not directed at you @dudacek) diminish Casey’s accomplishments, pointing to time spent with Tuch and Skinner on his wings as the reason for his output. Is it just his longer than expected development curve that has soured folks on Casey? We should be pleased to have a player who can step into the 1C role and keep that line cruising along (from memory and eye test). Other than Cozens I can’t see anyone else on the roster able to do that.

[JohnC]

9 hours ago, Claude Balls said:

And therewithin lies the problem. He's a no show for too long. I don't know why he gets better the later the season gets. He needs to show up for 82 games if he really wants to take the next step.   

He got dramatically better at the end of the season because his line mates were more talented and more capable goal scorers. It's going to be interesting to see how he performs on a line with Cozens and JJ, assuming that is where he is moved to. Maybe it would be better if he centered his own line? What adds to his value is that he is a player who can be moved up to a higher line and still be productive. 

On one of the broadcasts, Rob Ray was asked why it took so long for Mitts to start play up to the level of his draft status. He pointed out that it took a few years for him to physically mature and be able to physically handle the rigors of this tough man league. I believe his analysis was correct. The Sabres have so many intriguing player story-lines this upcoming season. Mitts is one of them. Quinn would have been another one if he didn't get hurt. 

[mjd1001]

20 goals, 65-70 total points.  I want/expect a little more progression in his game and if he shows that I think that is where he ends up.

[pi2000]

I predict an average of 15 kills, 30 Top 20s, and 5 Top 10s for Fortnite.

[Broken Ankles]

44 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

20 goals, 65-70 total points.  I want/expect a little more progression in his game and if he shows that I think that is where he ends up.

Your vote was with me in the 30-50.  If you think 70 pts, why did you select option 1?

  I expect PPG to remain close to what we saw last year but….

[Night Train]

The rosters biggest enigma. 

I want to put my arms around him so often and give him the benefit of the doubt. Yet so often, he looks to make a good play and loses control of the puck or fans on a shot. Struggles with poise and seems like a nervous wreck. Yet other times, he hustles and throws a nice pass in front of the net. Always seems to be fighting himself. 

I do NOT dislike him but cannot figure what version of him I'm getting for long stretches. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

4 hours ago, JustOneParade said:

I find it interesting that some (not directed at you @dudacek) diminish Casey’s accomplishments, pointing to time spent with Tuch and Skinner on his wings as the reason for his output. Is it just his longer than expected development curve that has soured folks on Casey? We should be pleased to have a player who can step into the 1C role and keep that line cruising along (from memory and eye test). Other than Cozens I can’t see anyone else on the roster able to do that.

There are Mitts haters on this board who made Mitts a scapegoat and have never relented despite the change on the ice.

He took the same development path as TNT.  Both players made the NHL quickly after college.  Both struggled with the NHL game, got sent to the AHL, didn't prosper in the NHL until they physically matured, and both broke out at the NHL level at the same age, except Mitts showed signs of good play at different points.  Both also suffered under RK.

Mitts 

Age 20 - .33 pts/gp

Age 21 - .29 pts/gp

Age 22 - .54 pts/gp

Age 23 - .48 pts/gp

Age 24 - .72 pts/gp

TNT

Age 20 - .22 pts/gp

Age 21 - .22 pts/gp

Age 22 - AHL/Injury

Age 23 - .37 pts/gp

Age 24 - .87 pts/gp

Age 25 - 1.21 pts/gp 

Edited September 3, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[dudacek]

I think Casey is probably the 2nd most interesting player on the roster, after Levi.

And by interesting I mean the player the broadest range of potential outcomes and the greatest chance of influencing where the team ends up, good or bad: it’s like he might be Holzinger, or he might be Roy.

After seeing Tuch and Dahlin and Thompson make the steps they did 2 years ago then improve even more last year under Granato, it’s pretty easy to see Casey following in their footsteps.

It might feel like he’s been around for as long as they have, but he’s basically a season behind them in terms of development and NHL games played.

I tend to think the inconsistencies of last year would chart as growth, rather than a series of peaks and valleys, and he’s won me over with his character.

Im optimistic.

Edited September 3, 2023 by dudacek

[nfreeman]

I agree that there is a pretty wide range of potential outcomes for Mitts, although if he stays with the Sabres I don't think Holzinger is one of them.  I think 50 pts is pretty close to a floor for him -- and although Holzinger got there once in a 10-year career, and was faster than Mitts, Holzinger's hands and overall offensive game were nowhere near Mitts' IMHO.

If he stays with the Sabres, I think Mitts will stay in the top 6 in ice time among forwards (probably in the 5-6 range), steadily improve his game and pretty regularly exceed 50 pts.  In Quinn's absence this coming season, I expect Mitts to hold down a spot on Cozen's line, which means he will continue to get a lot of ice time, with talented linemates.  I don't think he'll ever be one of the key pillars of the team, but he's made himself into a valuable, contributing supporting piece.  He's also clearly well liked by the coaches and his teammates.

Looking at his stats, it's kinda interesting IMHO that he played 77 games in his first full NHL season, which was Housley's 2nd year (76 pts, something like a 15-game losing streak in the 2nd half and Howie got fired!  Great job all around!).  Then, 31, 41 and 40 games, covering the glorious Krueger era and DM's first year and including a few serious injuries, then all 82 games last year.  So while he didn't cover himself in glory before last season, he also found himself in a highly dysfunctional environment in which his personal obstacles included injury.

[Pimlach]

I have him in between 50 and 70 points. I just don’t know what line he fits on, probably a 3C, but maybe a winger on the second line, and we know he produced centering the 1st line … good player to have around.   He is starting to use his size along with his skill, could be he best season ever coming.  Looking forward to watching him. 

[French Collection]

3 hours ago, dudacek said:

It might feel like he’s been around for as long as they have, but he’s basically a season behind them in terms of development and NHL games played.

I tend to think the inconsistencies of last year would chart as growth, rather than a series of peaks and valleys, and he’s won me over with his character.

Im optimistic.

It does seem like he’s been taking forever to get here.

Injuries and Krueger have set him back a year or two.

I like his versatility, W, C, PP some PK. I am optimistic of his upcoming season being good. I hope he ends up with Cozens and JJP, he would be a good playmaker for those two and be a LH faceoff option too.

Having him on the second line will give them a look at Krebs as a 3C and if that is a better option than Casey at 3C or W.

[steveoath]

I’d like to see him with greenway and Krebs. Could be a fun line. 

[Zamboni]

Speaking of Mitts haters… this was said only three short years ago on this forum ….

 

”Still think he's only worth a 4th round pick.  You find a GM that'll give you more, you jump on it.  He's garbage.  Watching him play against professional players in both the NHL and AHL has cemented my opinion.  He (Mitts) simply doesn't have what it takes to be a professional hockey player.”

 

😂

[nfreeman]

7 hours ago, Zamboni said:

Speaking of Mitts haters… this was said only three short years ago on this forum ….

 

”Still think he's only worth a 4th round pick.  You find a GM that'll give you more, you jump on it.  He's garbage.  Watching him play against professional players in both the NHL and AHL has cemented my opinion.  He (Mitts) simply doesn't have what it takes to be a professional hockey player.”

 

😂

Again: why do you keep doing this? Why don't you do this with your own posts?

[JohnC]

28 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Again: why do you keep doing this? Why don't you do this with your own posts?

The poster is basically pointing out that the perception of Mitts has dramatically changed over the past couple of years. He took a previous "quote" to illustrate his point. That's not an unreasonable take. 

[Doohickie]

35 goals/50 assists

[Claude Balls]

On 9/3/2023 at 9:47 AM, JohnC said:

He got dramatically better at the end of the season because his line mates were more talented and more capable goal scorers. It's going to be interesting to see how he performs on a line with Cozens and JJ, assuming that is where he is moved to. Maybe it would be better if he centered his own line? What adds to his value is that he is a player who can be moved up to a higher line and still be productive. 

On one of the broadcasts, Rob Ray was asked why it took so long for Mitts to start play up to the level of his draft status. He pointed out that it took a few years for him to physically mature and be able to physically handle the rigors of this tough man league. I believe his analysis was correct. The Sabres have so many intriguing player story-lines this upcoming season. Mitts is one of them. Quinn would have been another one if he didn't get hurt. 

Spot on. I knew he had a looong way to grow physically. We all did after the 1 pullup thingy. You can see he is much bigger. He just needs to put his size to use. He's good along the boards, but I also think he has the potential to be tough in front of the net and score dirty goals. We shall see. If he's late to the party again this year, I'll be done with him. I was pretty much done with him last year, and talked a lot of crap about him. But it's pretty much apparent the team still sees a bright future for him in Buffalo. So I'll just try to be patient another year. 

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, Claude Balls said:

Spot on. I knew he had a looong way to grow physically. We all did after the 1 pullup thingy. You can see he is much bigger. He just needs to put his size to use. He's good along the boards, but I also think he has the potential to be tough in front of the net and score dirty goals. We shall see. If he's late to the party again this year, I'll be done with him. I was pretty much done with him last year, and talked a lot of crap about him. But it's pretty much apparent the team still sees a bright future for him in Buffalo. So I'll just try to be patient another year. 

The one area where I would like to see him improve is the accuracy of his shot. There were a number of occasions where he missed on glorious opportunities. 

That failed chin-up picture you alluded to did a lot to give a false picture of him as a hockey player. He was simply a kid who wasn't prepared for the less than relevant test. 

Edited September 5, 2023 by JohnC

[Claude Balls]

2 hours ago, JohnC said:

The one area where I would like to see him improve is the accuracy of his shot. There were a number of occasions where he missed on glorious opportunities. 

That failed chin-up picture you alluded to did a lot to give a false picture of him as a hockey player. He was simply a kid who wasn't prepared for the less than relevant test. 

It's funny you bring up the accuracy of his shot. He has made some of the most crazy accurate passes I've seen. If he can put it all together, then there is hope.