Defense remake underway! Who is moving on?

[inkman]

37 minutes ago, RochesterExpat said:

This is what I expect as well, but I see a lot of references (especially on Reddit) to Johnson Jr. being a Sabre this season. I thought it odd since at no point over the last year did I think he was going to be an immediately impactful player. I wanted to make sure I wasn't totally off-base. Don't get me wrong, I'd absolutely love it if he made the team this season because it means we're only improving, but I just don't see it happening.

I think part of the issue is he played with Brock Faber and Jackson LaCombe who will almost certainly see NHL time next season. Faber is virtually guaranteed a roster spot this season in Minnesota due to the salary cap (they have $7.5m and still need to sign Gustavsson and three forwards). LaCombe is similarly likely to get a crack at the Ducks' roster as the team only has four defensemen signed who played exclusively in the NHL last season (that's counting Drysdale's QO as a signing). One of those signed players is Robert Hägg so we're not exactly talking about an elite D-core. A fifth, Colton White, played the majority of the season in Anaheim, but still played some in San Diego. Of course, the Ducks also have cap space to make moves if they want to. But, as it stands now, LaCombe is likely to play in the NHL.

I was wondering where the Ryan Johnson talk was stemming from.  I didn’t know Reddit had a Sabres forum.  Sounds delightful.  I don’t think anyone on this board has him penciled for anywhere other than Rochester. 

[Taro T]

8 minutes ago, inkman said:

I was wondering where the Ryan Johnson talk was stemming from.  I didn’t know Reddit had a Sabres forum.  Sounds delightful.  I don’t think anyone on this board has him penciled for anywhere other than Rochester. 

Yeah, prior to his follow up post you referenced, had thought he was confusing Erik Johsnon with Ryan Johnson.  Apparently not.

And, yeah, could see Ryan getting a couple of games at some point if the Sabres D are getting hit by injuries.  But can't see him higher than 8 on the depth chart (and since Stillman has to clear waivers and he doesn't he'd still effectively be 9) and right now would have him 10 (behind Clague, can't put him at 11 behind Bryson too, just can't get there).

[French Collection]

I can see Chicago picking p Bryson on waivers, they have cap space and only 4 NHL D.

A lot can happen in the next 2 months, and maybe nothing due to the summer doldrums.

Clague on a 2-way deal makes Bryson even more expendable imo.

[GASabresIUFAN]

I just watched the Johnson and Clifton videos and a couple of things stood out.

From Clifton:  How much DG helped his development with the USNTDP.  He said DG taught him more in a month than he ever learned previously.  He also said how much Monte helped his confidence and allowed him to open his offensive game.  However the biggest takeaway way his PT with Lindholm and playing 22 minutes a night.  I’d love to see the analytics on this pairing, but it has to be part of the basis of their confidence he can play with Power or even Dahlin.  Lindholm had 10g and 53 pts last year.  He’s also 6’4 215. 

From Johnson: The change to a more defensive mind set was the standout point.  

After hearing both guys talk about coaching to a certain extent, I wonder how much are these guys going to be debriefed by DG and KA about what made them successful with their old teams and are those concept DG might employ here?  For example, what did the coaches do to get McKinnon to buy in to back checking and a better D structure?  What specifically did Monte do to open Clifton puck moving abilities? What system does Monte employ that allowed Boston to be an NHL leader in GF and the leader in goal prevention?  Can those principals be employed in Buffalo?  

[GASabresIUFAN]

1 hour ago, mjd1001 said:

Honestly, I just want 3rd pair D-guys who are good enough to keep Dahlins ice time down a couple minutes a game (to about 23) and Powers ice time down to about 21 minutes per game.

Having 2 great D-men so at least one of them can be on the ice for the majority of the games in the playoffs may be more important than in the regular season. Have a guy back there who can get to and move the puck out of your zone will be very valuable in playoff hockey.

While you need to have your stars play a lot to GET you to the playoffs, once you get there those guys need to be somewhat rested AND fully healthy.

Great post.

@RochesterExpat  One of great things about KA’s work this summer is that despite being 10 deep in Buffalo right now, there is literally no one blocking either Johnson or Novikov’s path to Buffalo in a year.  Outside the top 4 all the other 6 guys are on one year contracts.  The setup gives them the kids freedom to develop properly in the A and not be rushed to the NHL while also creating an NHL opportunity in a year if they prove ready. 
 

 

Edited July 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[JohnC]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

It's expectations and hopium.  I hoped for a real upgrade on defense and instead, we acquired Stillman.  It was a wasted opportunity.  A better upgrade may have gotten us into the playoffs.  That's all water under the bridge at this point.  

I am rapidly learning that KA does not like the prices for the Chychrun and Pesce of the world.  He has kicked the tires and came up unwilling to part with key pieces of his pipeline. I get that. He has a young team with a deep pipeline and wants to build from within.   At some point, however, the pipeline won't give you what you need and he will have to do what Stl did and go get the missing piece or two even it costs you a Östlund, Rosen.  

That said, I really like what KA added on defense.  Johnson is the type of player, a veteran leader who can still play, that we've needed on the backend for two years.  Clifton is not quite the proven 4 Pesce would have been, but I think this is a very reasonable gamble given his progression over the last 5 years.  As I've said before, KA is playing moneypuck and hopefully it works.

What I don't like is not upgrading the non-Levi goalies.  I think this is an opportunity to spend some capital.  With a proven goaltender and the D upgrades, this team could be a beast.  Without it, it's still possible, but unlikely.

With the improved goaltending, the question for the season will be, given that other teams in the East, like Det, upgraded on paper, will just adding defense be enough to get beyond just sneaking into the playoffs?  Honestly, I'm not sure.  

You are very astute in recognizing that KA is committed to the moneypuck approach to building and running a franchise. That adherence was bravely applied to the Ullmark saga. Last year, he talked about the Ullmark saga and explained on WGR what his stance was toward the player and his philosophy in genera. He clearly stated that he and his analytical staff established a value for him, and he was not willing to go beyond it. (As it applied to this player, I disagreed then and now. Too inflexible for me. I believe that his decision cost us a playoff spot.)  

In general, I agree with your observations with the exception over the goaltending situation. You know my often-stated position so there is no need to rehash. In my view acquiring Levi and watching his performance at the end of the season altered how I viewed the situation. Is it a risk depending so much on a young goalie? Yes. Is it worth the risk to take? As I see it, yes. 

With respect to your last paragraph and the questions you present, I am a little more sanguine than you. I expect better defense from the blueline, better PK, more responsible two-way play from the lines and internal improvement from many of the young players on this team. I'm in the cautious optimistic category. 

[GASabresIUFAN]

47 minutes ago, JohnC said:

With respect to your last paragraph and the questions you present, I am a little more sanguine than you. I expect better defense from the blueline, better PK, more responsible two-way play from the lines and internal improvement from many of the young players on this team. I'm in the cautious optimistic category. 

In this century how many goalies have played 40 or more games at age 21?  5 since 2000.  https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/21-year-old-nhl-goalies.html

1. Steve Mason - 58 games - 3.05, .901

2. Carey Price - 52 games - 2.83, .906

3. MAF - 50 games - 3.25, .898

4. Luongo - 47 games - 2.44, .920

5. Hart - 43 games - 2.42, .914

6. Korpisalo - 31 games - 2.60, .920

7.  Ward - 28 games - 3.68, .882

So are we asking Levi to give us 50 quality games? Given these stats, is that a reasonable expectation?  I think 40-45 is much more reasonable.  So if Levi is only going to play 50% of the games, do you trust the Swiss Cheese boys with the other 40+?

Edited July 5, 2023 by GASabresIUFAN

[MattPie]

4 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

I love Novikov. I think with the defensive depth in Buffalo now both Ryan and Nikita will be in Rochester for the majority or all of the year. Next year they will have chances to join the Sabres depending on what they do with Lybushkin and Erik Johnson.

I think EJohns retires, going out with a cup win is a fine way to wrap up his career.

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In this century how many goalies have played 40 or more games at age 21?  5 since 2000.  https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/21-year-old-nhl-goalies.html

1. Steve Mason - 58 games - 3.05, .901

2. Carey Price - 52 games - 2.83, .906

3. MAF - 50 games - 3.25, .898

4. Luongo - 47 games - 2.44, .920

5. Hart - 43 games - 2.42, .914

6. Korpisalo - 31 games - 2.60, .920

7.  Ward - 28 games - 3.68, .882

So are we asking Levi to give us 50 quality games? Given these stats, is that a reasonable expectation?  I think 40-45 is much more reasonable.  So if Levi is only going to play 50% of the games, do you trust the Swiss Cheese boys with the other 40+?

This is a really good point and to further it--all of those players except for Korpisalo played in the AHL or NHL the year prior to their age 21 season.

Steve Mason: Age 20 season spent in the NHL with 61 regular season games (plus 3 in the AHL) and 4 playoff games (68 total). Age 19: 47 games (OHL/WJC)

Carey Price: Age 20 season spent in the NHL with 41 regular, 11 post-season games + 10 AHL games (62 total). Season prior he played 2 regular + 22 post- season AHL games and 46 WHL games (70 total).

MAF: Age 20 season in the AHL for 54 regular and 4 post season games (58 total). Age 19 was 43 games between NHL, QMJHL, AHL and WJC.

Luongo: Age 20 season split between 24 NHL, 26 + 6 AHL (56 games). Age 19 was 73 games between QMJHL and WJC

Hart: Age 20 season split between 31 NHL, 18 AHL, 3 WWC (52 total). Age 19 was 63 WHL games and 6 WJC (69 total).

Korpisalo: Age 20 season split between 38 + 2 in Liiga + 3 AHL (43 total). Age 19 he played for like 7 different teams in Finland for only 20 total games.

Ward (worth noting he actually played 51 NHL games his rookie season as he added 23 playoff games): Age 20 was 50+11 AHL games (61 total). Age 19 was 56 + 19 (75 total) WHL games. 

Devon Levi last season played 34 NCAA games, 7 NHL games and 1 WC game (42 total). The year prior he played 32 NCAA games.  Of all the goalies above, he played fewer games than anyone in the season prior and lower than all but Korpisalo for D-2. 

Buffalo is making one hell of a gamble.

Best case? He turns out to be close to Bob who, for his age 22 season, was only 3 months older than Levi will be for his age 21 season. Bob played 35 KHL regular season games and 12 MHL post season games (47 total) before coming to NA. Bob's first NHL season he played 54 games, posted 28-13-8 record with a 2.59 GAA and .915 SV%.

Of course, if that happens, I look forward to trading Levi in two years and signing an aging goalie to a 9 year contract that we buy out two years later and spend the next 13 years eating the cap hit.

Edited July 5, 2023 by RochesterExpat
I can't into typing.

[PerreaultForever]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

What specifically did Monte do to open Clifton puck moving abilities? What system does Monte employ that allowed Boston to be an NHL leader in GF and the leader in goal prevention?  Can those principals be employed in Buffalo?  

Bruins basically retained the same defensive system they'd been using with Cassidy. This is hard for us to employ because it requires a lot of disciplined structure from the forwards. Good luck getting Skinner to buy into that. Hopefully we figure out something. 

In terms of the D, we already employ what Monty brought. He just let the D drive and join the rush. I've said for a while I think Clifton is a seamless fit for us because of that. He has the speed and he already has the style. he pairs perfectly with Power or Dahlin. He blocks shots and hits a lot as well. Only drawbacks are his size/reach and his tendency to sometimes go for the extra hit and get caught out of position. 

[JohnC]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

In this century how many goalies have played 40 or more games at age 21?  5 since 2000.  https://www.quanthockey.com/nhl/player-age/21-year-old-nhl-goalies.html

1. Steve Mason - 58 games - 3.05, .901

2. Carey Price - 52 games - 2.83, .906

3. MAF - 50 games - 3.25, .898

4. Luongo - 47 games - 2.44, .920

5. Hart - 43 games - 2.42, .914

6. Korpisalo - 31 games - 2.60, .920

7.  Ward - 28 games - 3.68, .882

So are we asking Levi to give us 50 quality games? Given these stats, is that a reasonable expectation?  I think 40-45 is much more reasonable.  So if Levi is only going to play 50% of the games, do you trust the Swiss Cheese boys with the other 40+?

Entering this season, the bigger issue/s than the play of the goalies (regardless which one is inhabiting the position) is the play of the blueliners, the PK unit and more responsible two-way play. Simply put: team defense. That's the bigger issue that circumscribes the goalie issue. What makes me more encouraged than most here is the end of the season's tighter play during the push for the playoffs when Levi was mostly entrusted with the position. That demonstrated that the team can play that brand of hockey when determined to do so. And as I see it, with the additions that were brought in, the Sabres should be better in the areas that I was concerned about before the acquisitions. 

The sunglasses that I wear are rose colored. I'm seeing things with an upbeat tint. 🏒

Edited July 5, 2023 by JohnC

[shrader]

5 hours ago, French Collection said:

I can see Chicago picking p Bryson on waivers, they have cap space and only 4 NHL D.

 

Yeah, but I think they'd rather add an NHL defenseman.

[Doohickie]

5 hours ago, GASabresIUFAN said:

After hearing both guys talk about coaching to a certain extent, I wonder how much are these guys going to be debriefed by DG and KA about what made them successful with their old teams and are those concept DG might employ here?  For example, what did the coaches do to get McKinnon to buy in to back checking and a better D structure?  What specifically did Monte do to open Clifton puck moving abilities? What system does Monte employ that allowed Boston to be an NHL leader in GF and the leader in goal prevention?  Can those principals be employed in Buffalo?  

Call me skeptical but I can't see a coach/GM picking a player's brain for how they should run the team.

[SABRES 0311]

A little late to the conversation. I know we are all thinking of where Clifford and Johnson fit in the lineup. One option is for one or both to be used in trades. If not and based on what I am reading here, Clifford could be Power’s partner. Coming off a winning team culture his mentorship may help cultivate a developing star defenseman.

Johnson could slot in on the third pair. The question then becomes what happens with Joker and Busch?

[LGR4GM]

38 minutes ago, SABRES 0311 said:

A little late to the conversation. I know we are all thinking of where Clifford and Johnson fit in the lineup. One option is for one or both to be used in trades. If not and based on what I am reading here, Clifford could be Power’s partner. Coming off a winning team culture his mentorship may help cultivate a developing star defenseman.

Johnson could slot in on the third pair. The question then becomes what happens with Joker and Busch?

You don't sign a ufa guy and then immediately trade them. That's just ***** management. 

[Taro T]

2 hours ago, SABRES 0311 said:

A little late to the conversation. I know we are all thinking of where Clifford and Johnson fit in the lineup. One option is for one or both to be used in trades. If not and based on what I am reading here, Clifford could be Power’s partner. Coming off a winning team culture his mentorship may help cultivate a developing star defenseman.

Johnson could slot in on the third pair. The question then becomes what happens with Joker and Busch?

Really would be truly shocked if either Cliffton or E. Johnson are traded this summer.  You are NOT going to get agents telling their clients it's a good place to sign if they don't even make it to October on the roster.

[French Collection]

It’s great to have depth on D. The Sabres are in a position of strength with D and can make a trade and sustain a few injuries.

It is a fine line though, for team chemistry. We have been guessing at the pairings and who will be sitting out. These guys are professional athletes, geared to play and play as much as possible.
If guys like Joki, Boosh, EJ and Stillman are in a rotation like Krebs, Quinn, Peterka and Asplund were last year there will probably be some grumbling and demands for more ice time. They have contracts that pay them well even if they sit but these guys want to play.

Early team success will help boost the morale. A few injuries will get everyone some games but I hope the room is strong enough to keep everyone “happy”.

I think Bryson and Joki will be moved with Clague being #8.

[Cheektorado]

I'm starting to think that none of these 9 Ds are getting moved until the start of the season.  It's a hedge against injuries and gives time to see exactly who is playing better.  If everyone is healthy Bryson is the first to get moved.  Joki as part of a trade might happen but if it doesn't, I got no problem with him on the 3rd pairing or #7D.  It will all come down to if they want 7 or 8 D to start the season.  I'm thinking 8 may be the smart move.

[dudacek]

Interesting quote from Donnie this morning in the Athletic:

You’ll see us do that on the defensive side. People say left-handed defensemen can’t play on the right side. That’s because they haven’t gotten reps. Get them reps! As we’ve seen that’s worked and guys get comfortable. We won’t change that even though we have three right-shot defensemen. 

Context is making sure players are flexible and are capable of playing multiple roles, and with multiple teammates.

[dudacek]

Further to the above, I’m pretty sure Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, Johnson and Clifton add up to 4…? 🤷

[Doohickie]

43 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Further to the above, I’m pretty sure Jokiharju, Lyubushkin, Johnson and Clifton add up to 4…? 🤷

Well, you know..... math was never Donny's strong suit.

[Drag0nDan]

20 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

Bruins basically retained the same defensive system they'd been using with Cassidy. This is hard for us to employ because it requires a lot of disciplined structure from the forwards. Good luck getting Skinner to buy into that. Hopefully we figure out something. 

In terms of the D, we already employ what Monty brought. He just let the D drive and join the rush. I've said for a while I think Clifton is a seamless fit for us because of that. He has the speed and he already has the style. he pairs perfectly with Power or Dahlin. He blocks shots and hits a lot as well. Only drawbacks are his size/reach and his tendency to sometimes go for the extra hit and get caught out of position. 

Some improved back skating and back checking would go a long way to improving team defense.  There are WAY too many wide open shots from the high slot, and a guy like VO or Skinner just sort of drifting behind the play looking to turn up ice.  I think all 4 of the centers need to prioritize this as well as something that just can't happen.  

On the PK i think they can do a better job at the blue line on making zone entry more challenging, they also got caught puck watching way too much as the season wore on.  Seemed like teams figured out how to attack us down-low on their PP's, and we just gave up a lot of space.  Backdoor cross crease passing was also just wide open for business, and there wasn't a tandem that did a great job there clearing that out. 

[Curt]

Granato in a press conference today talked about the Sabres having 3 LHD (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson) that E Johnson (and Clifton) could pair with and benefit any of them.

My takeaways were I hope that they don’t overplay Johnson too much, and also it sounds like they intend to play Dahlin on the left side.

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Curt said:

Granato in a press conference today talked about the Sabres having 3 LHD (Dahlin, Power, Samuelsson) that E Johnson (and Clifton) could pair with and benefit any of them.

My takeaways were I hope that they don’t overplay Johnson too much, and also it sounds like they intend to play Dahlin on the left side.

@Thorny's in heaven right now with that thought.  😉

[Thorny]

52 minutes ago, Taro T said:

@Thorny's in heaven right now with that thought.  😉

I’m not actually a proponent of doing it one way or the other, merely a proponent of the idea that it should be acknowledged as a notable consideration in team building.