2023 NHL Summer Trade Thread

[tom webster]

48 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I doubt Hellebuyck goes to any team without a long term contract in place, it wouldn’t make much sense for him.

A) he really doesn’t have a say

B) Buffalo would be a no lose situation for him. He leads them to the playoffs, he will cash in. He doesn’t and the Sabres weren’t ready.

C) Even though Winnipeg did well with PLD trade, they are still in a rebuild mode 

[shrader]

20 minutes ago, Flashsabre said:

He doesn’t have a say as he has no trade protection

He does have a say in his contract situation though. 

[Turbo44]

10 minutes ago, shrader said:

He does have a say in his contract situation though. 

Yep - he could extend with Buffalo when the trade is consummated or he could bet on himself, play out the year, put up great stats in Buffalo and sign anywhere when the cap goes up $4m

Edited July 4, 2023 by Turbo44

[freester]

21 minutes ago, Turbo44 said:

Yep - he could extend with Buffalo when the trade is consummated or he could bet on himself, play out the year, put up great stats in Buffalo and sign anywhere when the cap goes up $4m

I feel like his contract demands will substantially lower his trade value. He’s definitely only a rental. 

[Buffalonill]

1 minute ago, freester said:

I feel like his contract demands will substantially lower his trade value. He’s definitely only a rental. 

Yeah I would rather spend those Assets for an impact forward at the deadline for the playoffs 

 

[nfreeman]

2 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I doubt Hellebuyck goes to any team without a long term contract in place, it wouldn’t make much sense for him.

 

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

A) he really doesn’t have a say

B) Buffalo would be a no lose situation for him. He leads them to the playoffs, he will cash in. He doesn’t and the Sabres weren’t ready.

C) Even though Winnipeg did well with PLD trade, they are still in a rebuild mode 

 

As I’ve said, previously, I think it’s 80% likely that there is no team out there that is both willing to give Helle the long-term contract he wants right now and that is a good enough team for him to want to sign there.

I agree that for him, going to the Sabres, with either one year left on his contract or with an additional one-year extension is pretty much a no lose situation. Having thought it over, it is somewhat possible that he would agree to a one-year extension. It will depend on his and his agent’s evaluation of how much cap space there will be around the league in summer 2024 with good teams in the market for a goalie.

I still think that, as great as it would be for the Sabres, a one year extension is less than 25% likely. 

[GoPuckYourself]

5 hours ago, tom webster said:

A) he really doesn’t have a say

B) Buffalo would be a no lose situation for him. He leads them to the playoffs, he will cash in. He doesn’t and the Sabres weren’t ready.

C) Even though Winnipeg did well with PLD trade, they are still in a rebuild mode 

Couldnt he just say I'm not playing for you without a deal?

[thewookie1]

23 minutes ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Couldnt he just say I'm not playing for you without a deal?

He would be suspended and not paid in that case. Additionally there would be a chance he’d get blackballed by the league

Edited July 5, 2023 by thewookie1

[tom webster]

1 hour ago, GoPuckYourself said:

Couldnt he just say I'm not playing for you without a deal?

A) he’s not going to give up $6M by sitting out 

B) he can’t become a free agent till he plays out the year 

[dudacek]

Chevy is saying he’s content with Hellebuyck staying going into the season because he has to establish leverage.

But he has to know full well the last time anyone spent anything significant on a rental goalie was Ryan Miller and that blew up in Doug Armstrong’s face.

if he can’t make a summer deal before the market locks up, he’s going to be left praying a contender’s goalie suffers a season-ending injury. Because he’s not getting more than a late 1st and the equivalent prospect at the deadline.

[PerreaultForever]

10 hours ago, GoPuckYourself said:

I doubt Hellebuyck goes to any team without a long term contract in place, it wouldn’t make much sense for him.

Actually I think it makes a lot of sense. But I think he'd want to go to a team with a good D where he is in a position to succeed.

Not many teams have any money left and don't want to sign up guys for long term but when the cap goes up and reportedly up and up again after that the vaults will open so he can then get his long deal right into the end of his career. A year from now he gets a bigger deal than signing one now, bet on it. 

[tom webster]

7 hours ago, dudacek said:

Chevy is saying he’s content with Hellebuyck staying going into the season because he has to establish leverage.

But he has to know full well the last time anyone spent anything significant on a rental goalie was Ryan Miller and that blew up in Doug Armstrong’s face.

if he can’t make a summer deal before the market locks up, he’s going to be left praying a contender’s goalie suffers a season-ending injury. Because he’s not getting more than a late 1st and the equivalent prospect at the deadline.

And this is a huge point. Historically, goaltenders don’t move at the deadline. Besides Miller I remember Huet and no one else. I’m sure someone will remember others.

There is more to the concept of a goalie adapting to the team in front of him then most realize besides the fact that teams that aren’t interested now won’t be interested at the deadline unless, as Dudacek points out, there’s an injury.

[Doohickie]

21 hours ago, tom webster said:

I think they want Hellebuyck, I think they are willing to take him for a year, I think they prefer for him to agree to a one year extension, I think they are not really close to a deal, I think both GM’s are notoriously patient, I think it’s possible they settle for Gibson. 
To be clear, this is all me putting dots together and nothing else.

You're one of the more thoughtful dot-connectors on the forum, so...

 

Thanks for the speculation/info.

[Doohickie]

18 hours ago, Flashsabre said:

He doesn’t have a say as he has no trade protection

But he doesn't have to agree to a short term extension.  If the Sabres trade for him he will be a free agent after one year and he can sign a 1-year extension if he wants, or insist on 8 years (or 7 with another team).  I think @GoPuckYourself is talking about a sign-and-trade situation.

[FrenchConnection44]

On 7/4/2023 at 7:05 AM, LGR4GM said:

I have no idea why anyone wants Gibson after looking at his numbers and hearing some of his issues. Asking for a trade then denying it and refusing modern goalie equipment... hard pass.

Completely agree. 

I don’t get all this talk. Gibson has dropped off and frankly I’d rather run with the potential upside of UPL than the downside of Gibson (when look at not only save % but also his quality save % and various advanced stats; just not great). 

I am not a huge UPL fan or defender. But his 9 games two years ago comp just as well with Levi’s 7 last year. Levi is the better goalie prospect imo but UPL is still only 23. Plenty of goalies don’t come into their own until they get older and more experienced. Anecdotally, when one looks back at Ullmark for example, he didn’t even break in to be a starter (30 + starts) til he was 25. And his first full year he ranked pretty low (30s in most categories); he didn’t really become quality starter til 26. 

I wanted to sign a vet goalie on a 2 yr deal to help take the pressure off our young guys. Esp. Levi. But I still think UPL can improve and we could have a good tandem with Levi for a few years. Not confident it will be this year. But hope springs eternal. 

[FrenchConnection44]

As to cap space, Buffalo is right at the middle of the pack in the league (essentially even with 3 other teams bet 12-15). Cap space around the league is not quite as bad as many are saying. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/cap/

Id give up future draft considerations, VO, maybe Östlund and another for Helly. But I’m not giving up any prime assets in the pipeline. 

[Crusader1969]

17 hours ago, nfreeman said:

 

 

As I’ve said, previously, I think it’s 80% likely that there is no team out there that is both willing to give Helle the long-term contract he wants right now and that is a good enough team for him to want to sign there.

I agree that for him, going to the Sabres, with either one year left on his contract or with an additional one-year extension is pretty much a no lose situation. Having thought it over, it is somewhat possible that he would agree to a one-year extension. It will depend on his and his agent’s evaluation of how much cap space there will be around the league in summer 2024 with good teams in the market for a goalie.

I still think that, as great as it would be for the Sabres, a one year extension is less than 25% likely. 

My thought is at age 31 or 32.   He will be looking for long term. 

[Brawndo]

 

[Buffalonill]

12 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

 

On Brett Pesce so Buffalo is on it I'm guessing. 

Damn

Edited July 5, 2023 by Buffalonill

[FrenchConnection44]

From The Athletic on Pesce (given what he wants and with 3 young D studs to keep; he’d be a 1 year loaner). But if I am the Hurricanes I’d keep Pesce barring a massive haul relative to the player. They are a bonafide Cup contender. 

———

Pesce is probably looking for a max-term contract worth something in the $6.5 million range annually.

The Hurricanes have been reluctant to give out big-ticket, long-term contracts to those in their late 20s and have several players (Aho, Skjei, Martin Necas, Seth Jarvis, Jalen Chatfield) who will expect raises starting with the 2024-25 campaign. Things could be tight, even with a spike in the salary cap next summer.

Any team negotiating with Pesce must also consider his injury history. He has twice had his season cut short due to shoulder injuries, and the wear and tear of playing more than 13,000 minutes since coming into the league in 2015 will catch up to him at some point.

What the Hurricanes must weigh is how many years Pesce can be expected to play at or near his current level before the drop-off occurs. And if Pesce is indeed seeking an eight-year extension in the $50 million to $55 million range, that might be too rich for Carolina’s blood.

So, then what? The Hurricanes could certainly play out next season with Pesce, who is still a key part of their defense. Carolina hasn’t shied away from using its pending UFAs as “own rentals” in the past — see Micheal Ferland, Dougie Hamilton and Vincent Trocheck.

The problem is half of the team’s expected top six — Pesce, Skjei and Chatfield — have contracts that are up after the 2023-24 season. So while Carolina has been able in the past to let a few players leave via free agency without compensation, it cannot allow three defensemen to walk for nothing.

That means exploring alternatives — and it’s the reason Pesce’s name has come up in trade rumors.

[RochesterExpat]

1 hour ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

As to cap space, Buffalo is right at the middle of the pack in the league (essentially even with 3 other teams bet 12-15). Cap space around the league is not quite as bad as many are saying. 

https://www.spotrac.com/nhl/cap/

Id give up future draft considerations, VO, maybe Östlund and another for Helly. But I’m not giving up any prime assets in the pipeline. 

That's a bit misleading as it doesn't have qualified RFA's signed and some rosters are missing the minimum player requirement. Just looking at teams ranked around Buffalo:

9th is Minnesota: $7.5m left to resign RFAs Brandon Duhaime ($1m), Calen Addison ($1.5m) and Filip Gustavsson ($3m+). Assuming they sign those RFAs, that leaves them with 11 forwards and 6 defensemen. Assuming they are pulling up Faber ($925K) and Lettieri ($775K) and one of Fogarty/Rossi, we can just go ahead and assume another $2.5m in cap is going to get used to round out the roster from internal callups.

10th is Boston: $6.2m left to sign RFAs  Ian Mitchell ($1-1.5m), Trent Frederic ($2m+) and Jeremy Swayman ($4m). Boston is in a very tricky cap situation.

11th is the Rangers: $6.1m left to sign RFAs Alexis Lafreniere (likely around $2.1m that KK got) and K'Andre Miller (who should sign a multiyear at $4m+ AAV). Considering the Rangers need to sign KK, Lindgren, and Schneider next offseason and have 5 of 13 forwards currently making $800k or less a year and will still need another backup goalie next season--ouch!

12th is Buffalo. We have 25 of 23 roster spots filled currently. The Sabres really do have $5.8m in cap space available. Murray and Weissbach need two-ways deals if we are getting really pedantic about it.

13th is San Jose at $5.7m.They've got a full roster right now. So, like Buffalo, this is real cap space.

14th is New Jersey at $5.6m. Assuming they intend to fill the 12th and 13th forward slots with rookie talent, and they sign RFA Kevin Bahl for $1.3-1.6, they've probably got around $2.7m in cap space. That's a good spot to be in for a competitive team.

15th is Edmonton with $4.8m to sign RFAs McLeod ($1.9-$2.3m) and Bouchard ($3.75m per Seravalli so lets say $3.5-4m). Ouch.

So, reranking those 9th through 15th slots:

9th - Buffalo: $5.8m

10th - San Jose: $5.7m

11th - New Jersey: $2.7m

12th - Rangers - $0

13th -  Minnesota - -$500K

14th - Edmonton - -$600K

15th  - Boston - -$800K

There really is a cap crunch in the league right now. That's not an invented issue.

 

[FrenchConnection44]

Duffer & Biron discussing Sabres defense in this episode. They both predict the top 4 to be Dahlin, Samuelsson, Power, Clifton. 

Marty thinks 5-6 will go to Johnson and Lyubushkin (!). Thinks Lyu really came on at the end last year. Assuming everyone is healthy. Thinks they will carry 7-8 on D depending on whether they have 2 or 3 goalies. And he thinks Joki is a big trade possibility if that is the case (didn’t say who would be 7th but based on their conversation one can assume it will be Stillman; if Joki is traded). Of course, that assumes perfect health. 

 

[Scottysabres]

22 minutes ago, FrenchConnection44 said:

Duffer & Biron discussing Sabres defense in this episode. They both predict the top 4 to be Dahlin, Samuelsson, Power, Clifton. 

Marty thinks 5-6 will go to Johnson and Lyubushkin (!). Thinks Lyu really came on at the end last year. Assuming everyone is healthy. Thinks they will carry 7-8 on D depending on whether they have 2 or 3 goalies. And he thinks Joki is a big trade possibility if that is the case (didn’t say who would be 7th but based on their conversation one can assume it will be Stillman; if Joki is traded). Of course, that assumes perfect health. 

 

If we go with that we better get one hell of a 1A goalie. They'll need it to bail out that defense.

[Buffalonill]

13 minutes ago, Scottysabres said:

If we go with that we better get one hell of a 1A goalie. They'll need it to bail out that defense.

Yeah I'm not excited 

[RochesterExpat]

  I'd rather Joki than Johnson and I say that as someone who has a pretty low opinion of Joki.