GDT: Sabres @ Mighty Ducks, Feb 15, 2023, 10pm, MSG WGR

[Mustache of God]

10 minutes ago, IKnowPhysics said:

 

 

 

Waiting to see today's practice lines.

 

I'd like to see a buddy cop movie starring Judge Judy and Stone Cold Steve Austin. 

[Doohickie]

Tage Thompson all gussied up

Just kidding.  It's actor John Barrymore, born this day in 1882 (Drew Barrymore's grandfather)

[IKnowPhysics]

3 minutes ago, Mustache of God said:

I'd like to see a buddy cop movie starring Judge Judy and Stone Cold Steve Austin. 

I'd settle for an episode of Judge Judy with wrestlers as plantiffs/defendants and Stone Cold as bailiff and they play it totally straight faced.  It'd have been nice to have Mean Gene as the post-decision interviewer a la People's Court.

[Brawndo]

No morning skate for the team today

[IKnowPhysics]

10 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

No morning skate for the team today

40 minutes ago, Taro T said:

If yesterday's practice lines are an indication, then the top line is back together but EVERYTHING else (including all 3 D pairs) is jumbled still.

[PerreaultForever]

is Comrie finally going to play? This would seem to be the right moment for it. 

Ducks are terrible so if we lose this one you can start thinking about better picks than 14. 

Just don't let Zegras be Zegras and if he is, somebody smack him. 

[Contempt]

55 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

No morning skate for the team today

They haven't skated the past two games, why start now?

[French Collection]

I would start Comrie, the other two have not played well in their last starts.

Comrie could seize the moment and play well to keep the net.

[Weave]

47 minutes ago, PerreaultForever said:

 

Just don't let Zegras be Zegras and if he is, somebody smack him. 

I think Zegras is becoming more Jeff Skinner than Jeff Skinner.  

[Thorny]

1 hour ago, IKnowPhysics said:

I'd settle for an episode of Judge Judy with wrestlers as plantiffs/defendants and Stone Cold as bailiff and they play it totally straight faced.  It'd have been nice to have Mean Gene as the post-decision interviewer a la People's Court.

More less his Podcast 

[Thorny]

Win or ot loss today prevents us from falling below Deluca .500. 
 

Not every deluca team makes it, but teams below that line never do 

- - - 

currently pacing for 88 points - a non-negligible, 6-win improvement over last season 

the 12 point improvement would be the most between 82 game seasons since between 17-18 and 18-19, when Bottterill’s Sabres improved by 14 points year over year

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Eleven]

Tonight's the night Thompson hits 50 goals.  I'm calling it.  FIFTEEN GOALS.

Edited February 15, 2023 by Eleven

[Pimlach]

2 hours ago, Doohickie said:

Tage Thompson all gussied up

Just kidding.  It's actor John Barrymore, born this day in 1882 (Drew Barrymore's grandfather)

Here is Drew's great uncle Lionel, calling for the arrest of George Bailey of the Bailey Building and Loan.  

[Indabuff]

Let's ***** win this one goddamit!

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, Eleven said:

Tonight's the night Thompson hits 50 goals.  I'm calling it.  FIFTEEN GOALS.

 

 

[Sidc3000]

4 hours ago, Mustache of God said:

Hopefully tonight kicks off a 12 game win streak.

[Thorny]

Re: playoff case 

Pens are pulling away, so the Caps going 4-6 in their last 10 has carried a fair bit of water in keeping us within striking distance even with our recent 4 game down-turn. 

As mentioned above this game may present somewhat of the first true “must win” of the season - we are 6 points back of the Caps for 8th - with 4 games in hand - but they are only useful if you win them. Being 6 points back, with 3 games in hand, isn’t a very great equation.

Winning today goes a long way towards keeping the math more in our favour 

[Sidc3000]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Re: playoff case 

Pens are pulling away, so the Caps going 4-6 in their last 10 has carried a fair bit of water in keeping us within striking distance even with our recent 4 game down-turn. 

As mentioned above this game may present somewhat of the first true “must win” of the season - we are 6 points back of the Caps for 8th - with 4 games in hand - but they are only useful if you win them. Being 6 points back, with 3 games in hand, isn’t a very great equation.

Winning today goes a long way towards keeping the math more in our favour 

There are a few teams breathing down the sabres neck too, especially Ottawa

[Spoonman]

8 hours ago, inkman said:

I made it half way through the second period last game.  Hoping to make it at least through the end of the 2nd tonight. 

I bailed after 2nd and 4-0 score. I hope Meatballs gets the boys sauced up to play tonight!

[Thorny]

12 minutes ago, Sidc3000 said:

There are a few teams breathing down the sabres neck too, especially Ottawa

It’s gonna be tough. 

The more teams in the fold, the more unlikely it becomes that there aren’t statistical outliers on either end - we don’t have breathing room, so in that scenario, “there’s nothing for it” if we aren’t one of those statistical outliers, and the one on the most positive end. So we don’t need to just improve to a playoff pace when we have a sample size of 52 games now saying we are definitely, statistically, NOT quite a playoff team (and believe it or not, that’s actually the EASY part), we likely have to outperform someone outplaying that already improved pace down the stretch. 

This is why it’s just so hard to make up ground. If we get in, we shall deserve it 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Win or ot loss today prevents us from falling below Deluca .500. 
 

Not every deluca team makes it, but teams below that line never do 

- - - 

currently pacing for 88 points - a non-negligible, 6-win improvement over last season 

the 12 point improvement would be the most between 82 game seasons since between 17-18 and 18-19, when Bottterill’s Sabres improved by 14 points year over year

WRONG.

[Thorny]

There’s the top 20, then the Next 12

Sabres are currently at the very top of that grouping. Let’s divide the group into 2, though, as there’s a small apparent gap: the top 6 (that the Sabres lead) are all within 6 points. To get from the Sabres to the second group, the lower 6, it’s double digit points. 

The bottom 3 of that bottom 6 separates even *further*, all 3 teams at 40 points or below, all with 30+ regulation losses, all within 4 points of dead last. 

The DFL grouping...these are the teams you cannot lose to. Anaheim is in this group (along with Chicago and Columbus).

Beat Anaheim. 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Taro T said:

WRONG.

There’s been 1 playoff team in the east in the last decade to be below deluca 500, 9 years ago 

let it go 

[Thorny]

We aren’t making the playoffs if we are below deluca. Yes, I get the fact that 110 points guarantees it. 

I do not care.

I do not care how many times you try to correct me on it. I do not care about finding a number that GUARANTEES it.  Have explained this countless times. My interest is in the number we need to achieve that represents the first realistically achievable number where playoffs are *more likely than not*. 
 

It is VERY statistically likely that a non deluca team misses. It is very unlikely a non deluca team makes it 

Edited February 15, 2023 by Thorny

[Taro T]

2 minutes ago, Thorny said:

There’s been 1 playoff team in the east in the last decade to be below deluca 500, 9 years ago 

let it go 

There were 7 ####ing teams in 10 years that were below the mythical DeLuca 0.500 that made the playoffs.  13 got to it and yet still missed.  (Doesn't count the 70 game season, the DeLuca 0.500 is even less useful if that's included.)

Considering it only matters if teams are close to being in the playoffs, that's a horrible track record.