Rasmus Ristolainen, the myth has finally been broken

[5th line wingnutt]

4 hours ago, Pimlach said:

So looking like an angry Viking on the ice doesn’t really matter?  
 

I never understood why he didn’t get any better with experience, but he didn’t.  

Not intelligent, not coachable.

[Marvin]

3 minutes ago, 5th line wingnutt said:

Not intelligent, not coachable.

Welcome back!

[mjd1001]

4 hours ago, Marvin said:

His tale is an object lesson in the usefulness of analytics over bromides like "but he gets points" and "but he hits people."  Points and hits are not useless, but the can be overwhelmed by other factors in evaluating a player.

I'm not saying much against analytics here, as I think they are useful, I just don't like when they are overused (such as someone posting a chart about a player that has more blue than red and saying they are good because of it).  But what I am going to say, maybe Analytics is just better at noticing it than the 'guys' who only care about the eye test.....

To me, you didn't need super fancy advanced stats to tell you he was bad.  When the non-stat guys were saying he was good becasue he 'hits' or looks good skating, they were only looking at what they wanted to see instead of opening their eyes to 'modern hockey'.  This is the one thing I started to look at with him about 3 years ago and it became very noticable with the 'eye' test alone, if you were looking for the right thing:

-He just took himself out of the plays too often.  One only had to look at goals he was on the ice for and watch the replays.  He would chase someone into a corner and deliver a hit...only to have the puck go back to where he COULD/SHOULD have been had he not chosen to make that hit there and a goal was scored from the spot he vacated.  Even worse, there were many, MANY plays that myself (and others) pointed out here where someone scored a goal and Risto had his back turned to the shooter and the puck while 5 feet away or less because he wanted to chase someone into the corner.  Other times he was in the process of cross checking a player in front of the net, when if he chose to not do so he could have had his stick on the ice and poke checked the puck away from an eventual goal scorer.

These aren't things that you had to reach to see, they were very very obvious.  All he had to do in order to become a good D-man was to be a lot pickier about when to hit someone, and to pay more attention to where the puck was rather than trying to figure out who is the closest guy to him he coudl cross check. He never learned that here, and apparently isn't learning it in Philly either.

There has to be a middle ground in terms of analytics and the 'eye test' guy, isn't there?  A guy who can look at what analytics tells you, and then instead of just accepting it they TAKE that data and look (using the eye test) for hockey reasons why the numbers are the way they are?  

[mjd1001]

58 minutes ago, pi2000 said:

That said another former Sabrespace darling, Samson Reinhart, continues to be a minus player, even on a stacked Florida squad.   

Making $6.5m he ranks 367th in cost per point... 24 points in 33 games, barely a 60pt pace.   

Is that worth $6.5m?  

 

Reinhart seems to be a guy that plays long stretches where he 'slightly disappoints'....not being awful, but is slightly below where you want him to be.  Then he as a short stretch where he lights things up...to get his numbers to where you want him to be. Then he disappears from the score sheet for a while again.  

To Evaluate him I think you have to look at his numbers long term, and look at his overall play/skill long term. What does that make him? Probably a $5.5 to $6.5 million dollar guy.  You CAN play him on a top line but he won't carry that line long term.  Hes good on a 2nd line, good on the PP.  Don't expect him to Penalty kill, and you better have someone else on his line (or with him on D) that can transition the puck out of your own end and through the neutral zone. Reinhart does his best 'hockey work' in the offensive zone, not the neutral zone or his own end.

[Drag0nDan]

4 hours ago, Marvin said:

The cherry on top is that the Flyers management signed him to that contract just this past off-season in spite of all the evidence because their management team is obsessed with big, physical guys; whether or not they can play the game well was immaterial.

Justify the trade most likely.  

[DarthEbriate]

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

Being just a -5 while averaging 18 min a night on that dog crap team is a little surprising. 

Only a -6? On that team? So you're saying he's improving defensively? In 8 years with the Sabres he averaged -20 per season.

Veteran RHD. He'll hit people. Hey! We need a veteran RHD with a little more snarl who'll balance out our 3rd pair! This is exactly the move we need to make to shore up the defensive depth! Send 'em Savoie and their 2023 2nd they gave up for Risto back to them. 😇

Which reminds me... The Sabres still have that PHI 2023 2nd waiting for them this summer, too. Should be around Pick #38 or lower (numerically). What a nice trade that was.

[Drag0nDan]

11 minutes ago, mjd1001 said:

I'm not saying much against analytics here, as I think they are useful, I just don't like when they are overused (such as someone posting a chart about a player that has more blue than red and saying they are good because of it).  But what I am going to say, maybe Analytics is just better at noticing it than the 'guys' who only care about the eye test.....

To me, you didn't need super fancy advanced stats to tell you he was bad.  When the non-stat guys were saying he was good becasue he 'hits' or looks good skating, they were only looking at what they wanted to see instead of opening their eyes to 'modern hockey'.  This is the one thing I started to look at with him about 3 years ago and it became very noticable with the 'eye' test alone, if you were looking for the right thing:

-He just took himself out of the plays too often.  One only had to look at goals he was on the ice for and watch the replays.  He would chase someone into a corner and deliver a hit...only to have the puck go back to where he COULD/SHOULD have been had he not chosen to make that hit there and a goal was scored from the spot he vacated.  Even worse, there were many, MANY plays that myself (and others) pointed out here where someone scored a goal and Risto had his back turned to the shooter and the puck while 5 feet away or less because he wanted to chase someone into the corner.  Other times he was in the process of cross checking a player in front of the net, when if he chose to not do so he could have had his stick on the ice and poke checked the puck away from an eventual goal scorer.

These aren't things that you had to reach to see, they were very very obvious.  All he had to do in order to become a good D-man was to be a lot pickier about when to hit someone, and to pay more attention to where the puck was rather than trying to figure out who is the closest guy to him he coudl cross check. He never learned that here, and apparently isn't learning it in Philly either.

There has to be a middle ground in terms of analytics and the 'eye test' guy, isn't there?  A guy who can look at what analytics tells you, and then instead of just accepting it they TAKE that data and look (using the eye test) for hockey reasons why the numbers are the way they are?  

Offensively, he could shoot a little.  He can't be useful on a PP though because he was a giveaway machine.  His stretch passes constantly hit people in the skates, or miss them entirely.  And he was always reacting to where people ARE not where they are going to be, or where he thinks they should be.  Just too reactionary.  

Defensively, a lot of the same problems.  No trust in his teammates or pairing, constantly chasing, and doesn't put pucks where they should be going.  He holds it too much in the zone, chases hits, etc.  

0 Points is Lybushkin level though.  This means he isn't shooting (27 shots in 26 games would mean a career low pace), and the stretch passes are coming from his line mate.  I think he's playing with Provorov so that makes some sense - Provorov is a better passer and shooter.  

[Eleven]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

former Sabrespace darling, Samson Reinhart

I don't think so.

[PASabreFan]

6 hours ago, Marvin said:

His tale is an object lesson in the usefulness of analytics over bromides like "but he gets points" and "but he hits people."  Points and hits are not useless, but the can be overwhelmed by other factors in evaluating a player.

I have always wondered how much Ristolainen, Zadorov, and Girgensons were hurt by The Tank.  They were better than guys on the Sabres at the time, so Nolan felt he needed them on the big club, but they really belonged in Rochester.

Analytics is built on bromides too. Get pucks on the net good things'll happen!

[Thorny]

2 hours ago, pi2000 said:

That said another former Sabrespace darling, Samson Reinhart, continues to be a minus player, even on a stacked Florida squad.   

Making $6.5m he ranks 367th in cost per point... 24 points in 33 games, barely a 60pt pace.   

Is that worth $6.5m?  

 

Goals in 4 straight for Sam 

60 point (Borderline 1st line) pace is worth 6.5 mil in 2022 dollars, ya. Depending on all around game, etc. 

- - -

In addition, Reinhart is a notorious slow starter. Since the calendar changed to November, Reinhart has 22 points in his last 24 games (75 point pace)

He’s developed a pretty predictable consistency. Sam is who he is and he’s the same player Granato raved about, as a leader and all around player, the year he coached him 

His point totals also generally contain full value as he’s a driver of play at Even Strength - 67% of his points this season are at even strength, compared to say Tage, where 44% of his points are on the power play 

(Obviously, that isn’t a Tage comp, (obviously), he’s playing at an MVP level currently, and at 7 whatever is a steal among steals). Reinhart at 6.5 is desirable, accurate value 

Edited December 21, 2022 by Thorny

[Thorny]

Here’s a great article for anyone interested, breaking down Reinhart’s slow statistical start despite good underlying numbers, and his charge up the ranks since. 

https://www.miamiherald.com/sports/nhl/florida-panthers/article270235657.html

“He had an awful lot of chances to score [early in the season] and couldn’t find the back of the net,” Panthers coach Paul Maurice said. “You keep telling him to hang with it.”“

Probably the most telling: 

“According to the advanced hockey statistics website Natural Stat Trick, Reinhart’s 14.25 individual expected goals created rank 19th in the NHL and second on the team behind only Tkachuk (15.64). Reinhart is also second on the team in overall scoring chances (120) and high-danger chances (62), again trailing only Tkachuk among Panthers players (131 scoring chances, 67 high-danger chances).“

Edited December 21, 2022 by Thorny

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Analytics is built on bromides too.

1. a compound of bromine with another element or group, especially a salt containing the anion Br−or an organic compound with bromine bonded to an alkyl radical

 

2. the wife of a gym bro

[PerreaultForever]

7 hours ago, LGR4GM said:

Also, if torts is so good as a coach, why is Risto even worse than before? 

He was in the doghouse earlier in the year and sat at least one game (maybe more, not sure). He'd probably be benched more but they don't have anybody to replace him. Torts is a good coach, but stupid can't be taught and doesn't listen and I firmly believe that is Risto's problem, I think he's dumb as a post and just doesn't learn anything so he keeps making the same mistakes no matter who coaches him or how they play him. 

The Risto trade is without a doubt Adams' best move so far. I hope he uses that 2nd rounder to find another Samuelsson. Then the trade might be best ever. 

[Zamboni]

I’d take Reinhart back on the Sabres in a heartbeat. 

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, PASabreFan said:

Analytics is built on bromides too. Get pucks on the net good things'll happen!

Point well taken.

[LGR4GM]

2 hours ago, PerreaultForever said:

He was in the doghouse earlier in the year and sat at least one game (maybe more, not sure). He'd probably be benched more but they don't have anybody to replace him. Torts is a good coach, but stupid can't be taught and doesn't listen and I firmly believe that is Risto's problem, I think he's dumb as a post and just doesn't learn anything so he keeps making the same mistakes no matter who coaches him or how they play him. 

The Risto trade is without a doubt Adams' best move so far. I hope he uses that 2nd rounder to find another Samuelsson. Then the trade might be best ever. 

I'd agree that Ristos hockey iq is the issue. 

[grinreaper]

A picture that sticks in my mind is actually a composite of Risto in front of his own net. The other team scores a goal off of a rebound put in by a player still on his feet. After the goal Risto, being the big strong guy that clears the net front cross checks someone, anyone and gets involved in a scrum just shy of being penalty worthy. Risto puffs out his chest and some people give him praise for his toughness. I've seen videos of his workouts and he is a beast. The bottom line is that he has done less with more than nearly everyone I can think of. His hockey awareness is on par with JaMarcus Russell's work effort.

[grinreaper]

11 hours ago, Marvin said:

His tale is an object lesson in the usefulness of analytics over bromides like "but he gets points" and "but he hits people."  Points and hits are not useless, but the can be overwhelmed by other factors in evaluating a player.

I have always wondered how much Ristolainen, Zadorov, and Girgensons were hurt by The Tank.  They were better than guys on the Sabres at the time, so Nolan felt he needed them on the big club, but they really belonged in Rochester.

Girgensons, besides his prior All Star status is not the type of player that he was projected to be. He's still a valuable player with an excellent work effort. Sometimes I watch part of the Sabre's games from about 30' away and it isn't easy to determine immediately who is on the ice. His line often retrieves the puck in the opponents end and just plain keeps it there. It appears as if they're going to have an excellent chance to score and I pay close attention or move closer to the TV. I then realize that it was #28 who just took the shot with a net that was fairly open and hit the GT in his breastbone. He's a good bottom 6 forward who can play wing or center and a stalwart on the PK. He has good speed and sets a great example for the kids. I'd like to see him get re-signed.

11 hours ago, Marvin said:

 

 

Edited December 22, 2022 by grinreaper

[Doohickie]

31 minutes ago, grinreaper said:

He's a good bottom 6 forward who can play wing or center and a stalwart on the PK. He has good speed and sets a great example for the kids.

He's like David Legwand in his final year in the league (with the Sabres).  He played the exact role you describe for Girgs.

Edited December 22, 2022 by Doohickie

[grinreaper]

10 minutes ago, Doohickie said:

He's like David Legwand in his final year in the league (with the Sabres).  He played the exact role you describe for Girgs.

I remember him. Was he also a face off specialist?

[skaught]

1 hour ago, grinreaper said:

I remember him. Was he also a face off specialist?

No he was a sniper.

 

[Doohickie]

2 hours ago, grinreaper said:

I remember him. Was he also a face off specialist?

Overall he was one of the "adults in the room" on a young team, along with Brian Gionta and Josh Gorges.

[DarthEbriate]

39 minutes ago, skaught said:

No he was a sniper.

Legwand definitely was a sniper (in the 15-20 goals/season variety). Coincidental timing... until tonight, he was the Nashville Predators franchise scoring leader. Roman Josi passed him this evening by netting 2 points.

Edited December 22, 2022 by DarthEbriate

[Doohickie]

For the Sabres he only had 5 goals.  He was playing on line 3/4 and killing penalties.  He was a good glue guy for the Sabres but never scored double digit goals after leaving the Preds.

[SwampD]

Nobody misses Risto. And I’m not sure if anyone ever said he was good. I know we were all hoping that he would get good, because he had an aspect to his game that none of our other defensemen had.

It wasn’t until Samuelsson came into his own last year that we had another Dman that could win those physical 50/50 pucks on the boards. And we have guys that still can’t do it.

Again, nobody misses Risto.

What’s next, a thread about how bad Eakin is? I thought (hoped) we were done hearing about these guys once they were gone.😂

Edited December 23, 2022 by SwampD