Buffalo Bills 2022-23

[PASabreFan]

5 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, maybe I should let you answer your own question:

 

What I'll add is this:  McD joined the biggest laughingstock franchise in the NFL.  They weren't just lousy on the field, with a league-record streak of missing the playoffs -- they were an embarrassment off the field, to the point where well-regarded assistant coaches around the NFL would issue press releases stating that they weren't interested in taking the HC job with the Bills. 

Then they brought in McD.  Now, they make the playoffs every year and usually advance, stars from around the league want to come here, alumni of their organization get hired to run other teams, half of their games are on national TV, their players get plenty of league-wide recognition and they are generally viewed as a model, professional franchise.

They lost yesterday to the defending AFC champs, after winning a playoff game the week before and after a season in which, among other things, their franchise QB injured his throwing elbow, they lost their best defensive player and their top safety, who is an important team leader, for the season to injury, their best run-stuffer missed the game with an injury, their best DT was impaired with a shoulder injury, one of their guys more or less was dead on the ground in front of them in a game 20 days previously before being defibrillated back to life, their TE's kid brother collapsed and died on the football field just before the season, their city was hit by a deadly blizzard that killed 40 people and caused them to lose a home game and they had to break in a rookie OC.

That is an enormous number of physical and psychological obstacles to overcome.  But they lost 3 games by a total of 8 points, advanced in the playoffs and then got taken apart by a very good team that has now won 10 in a row and is firing on all cylinders.

The idea of moving on from McD is insanity, IMHO.

That's outstanding. My question was too vague. I guess I didn't think I needed to make it clear I was asking whether he's in the "room for improvement" category. I was not suggesting he should be in "need to replace."

Put another way... Is he an elite, fully formed coach? Any concern about in game decisions?

 

Edited January 23, 2023 by PASabreFan

[LGR4GM]

Sometimes you have to pass on the good things to get to the better things. 

[Taro T]

11 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sometimes you have to pass on the good things to get to the better things. 

So what "good things" are you advocating they move on from?

[WhenWillItEnd66]

Here is reality..... Our team was not as good as the hype, injuries or not. Our O line and D line are hot trash, and Von is not the Savior. Allen looked nothing like he did on the first 4 weeks for the whole rest of the season. And the biggest and best part.... We will have not much money to fix the problems. Now we will be picking the mid to high 20's but wont get over the hump. And to make it worse, we see a glimpse of the Bickering Bills returning. Back to ignoring the Bills and 100% attention the Sabres. I thought this regime would be different..... Nope, it is always something with that team. 

[nfreeman]

15 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

That's outstanding. My question was too vague. I guess I didn't think I needed to make it clear I was asking whether he's in the "room for improvement" category. I was not suggesting he should be in "need to replace."

Put another way... Is he an elite, fully formed coach? Any concern about in game decisions?

Well, I'd say that all of us humans, even Sabrespace moderators, are not fully formed and have room for improvement. 

In all seriousness:  McD wants to win more than we do.  I am pretty confident that McD will take a long, dispassionate look at himself and his staff in the offseason and will be able to make whatever tough decisions he deems necessary.

From the fans' perspective, since we need to be cold and clinical in evaluating whether a coaching change is needed, I think the question is:  do the expected benefits outweigh the costs?  i.e. would the Bills actually be better off, and advance further in the playoffs if, say, they traded a first-round pick to NO for the rights to Sean Payton? 

Or would the inevitable transition hiccups, the loss of the first-rounder, the unsettling effect on the roster, the increased scrutiny and pressure, etc. bring about worse results, as we are now seeing with the Florida Panthers, who won the President's trophy last season, flamed out in the playoffs and then decided to play fantasy GM and traded their leading scorer and 2nd-best defenseman and replaced their coach, and are now greatly diminished?

[Indabuff]

I have subconsciously expunged much of the loser era from my memory bank. 

'Member Kyle Orton being here tho? 

I 'member.  

[Gatorman0519]

I can see no other way but that we need a mini rebuild.  Too many holes.  What I am sure of is that we no longer are a top contender.  Cincy set the bar and it is not even remotely close. There will be no more hype (which in a way is good) and no more SB talk next year.  In fact, Miami may be the favorite to win the division next year (I think McDaniels outcoached McDermott all 3 meetings).  JA needs a new scheme before he has to retire at 32.  Also (in this scheme) he is probably no longer a top 5 QB going into next year although his ceiling is still high (the MVP talk is now a distant memory).  But what scares me is he refuses to scan the field like Burrow or Mahomes.  It's bombs away or bust (throwing 40 yards on 3 and 2?... yikes). Lots of questions this offseason.  A million issues we have now.  We will probably be a lesser team next year.  Can Beane fix it?  His past 3 drafts have not been good. Get a real line and more weapons.  Need a real NFL running game.  I would love to see Reich in here. 

[Brawndo]

4 hours ago, Taro T said:

Likewise.

Might be the only person in America that didn't see Beebe strip the ball from Lett live.  Just sat down amongst the Cowboy crowd when Lett started heading to the end zone.

Friggin' Pokes fans chanting Three Beat on the way out of the Rose Bowl.  Morons, YOUR team lost 3 of these too; yes, your boys are three beat.

Can't be cheering about THEIR team's win but rather were rubbing our loss in our faces.  Don't want that team to ever win another championship.

I was actually so upset that I left the game before this 

[Taro T]

4 minutes ago, Brawndo said:

I was actually so upset that I left the game before this 

So there was somebody else that didn't see that play.  Cool. 😉

[That Aud Smell]

6 minutes ago, Gatorman0519 said:

I can see no other way but that we need a mini rebuild.  Too many holes.  What I am sure of is that we no longer are a top contender.  Cincy set the bar and it is not even remotely close. There will be no more hype (which in a way is good) and no more SB talk next year.  In fact, Miami may be the favorite to win the division next year (I think McDaniels outcoached McDermott all 3 meetings).  JA needs a new scheme before he has to retire at 32.  Also (in this scheme) he is probably no longer a top 5 QB going into next year although his ceiling is still high (the MVP talk is now a distant memory).  But what scares me is he refuses to scan the field like Burrow or Mahomes.  It's bombs away or bust (throwing 40 yards on 3 and 2?... yikes). Lots of questions this offseason.  A million issues we have now.  We will probably be a lesser team next year.  Can Beane fix it?  His past 3 drafts have not been good. Get a real line and more weapons.  Need a real NFL running game.  I would love to see Reich in here. 

This is a really good post. As it stands, the AFC belongs to the Chiefs and Bengals. Everyone else exists on a lower tier.

Beane & Co.'s performance at the draft has become a problem. They've missed, or at least failed to hit, on too many early round guys. There's been 3 RB's taken in the first 3 rounds, but mostly replacement level play to show for it. There were 3 edge players taken in rounds 1 and 2 over a 2-year (?) period, but none of those guys made a peep against a decimated O-line yesterday. Gabe Davis is not a good WR2. The list goes on.

Sadly, this team has taken steps back from the height of its powers. The high-water mark appears to have been the 13 seconds team. And even setting aside all of the holes on their roster, it's the coaching that most concerns me. They've built a wonderful culture, but they are not getting it done against good teams when it comes to game planning and game day adjustments.

Go Bills.

[LGR4GM]

41 minutes ago, Taro T said:

So what "good things" are you advocating they move on from?

Sean McDermott and the rest of his coaching staff. They should also take a long hard look at Beane and his questionable drafting. 

You can run McDermott back but you need knew coordinators at a minimum. Frazier's defense has been figured out IMPO by any QB that is decent enough and has even an okay line. Dorsey has lost complete control of Josh Allen and his offense just 20yrd vertical routes for a half a season for no reason. Dorsey isn't good and they shouldn't wait until he figures it out. Frazier can't win when it counts (13 seconds) and that's enough to move on from. Also I think that locker room got way to comfortable and bought into their own hype. Guess what, nobody cares who hypes you. Win or go home.

[tom webster]

I’ve tried to stay out of this debate but I’m fascinated by the fact that the consensus seems to be that a 13-3 team that is no worse the. The 6th best team in the league as we speak, have,

1) an inept  head coach

2) terrible coordinators

3) too many roster holes to list

4) a terrible scouting department 

5) an overrated front office.

They were embarrassed yesterday and are clearly a notch behind the four semi-finalist, but how is this all possible?

[Porous Five Hole]

Initial reactions to the season:

The team relied on the continued development of McKenzie, Knox, and Gabe.  It made sense to roll with this ascending group, but we didn’t get enough. McK is essentially replacement level, Gabe made some plays but could not be consistent, and maybe it was unreasonable to assume Knox would continue to develop into a top five TE (he was trending that way pre-injury last year).  If this group doesn’t let the team down, the O Line issues aren’t as glaring.  
 

Stats are comparable from last year to this year offensively, but Dorsey is a rookie and it showed. The game flow seemed odd too many times, and JA17 is an alien isn’t an offensive identity. Next year should be better. 
 

The O Line. Brown and Bates did not take a step forward. That hurt a ton. Dawkins was average, but is being paid to be better than average. Safford, Van Rotten, and Ques wore down. Dumpster diving for depth did not work. 

I believe Josh’s elbow injury was understated.

I’ll think about the D tomorrow.

 

 

 

[Eleven]

1 hour ago, nfreeman said:

Well, maybe I should let you answer your own question:

 

What I'll add is this:  McD joined the biggest laughingstock franchise in the NFL.  They weren't just lousy on the field, with a league-record streak of missing the playoffs -- they were an embarrassment off the field, to the point where well-regarded assistant coaches around the NFL would issue press releases stating that they weren't interested in taking the HC job with the Bills. 

Then they brought in McD.  Now, they make the playoffs every year and usually advance, stars from around the league want to come here, alumni of their organization get hired to run other teams, half of their games are on national TV, their players get plenty of league-wide recognition and they are generally viewed as a model, professional franchise.

They lost yesterday to the defending AFC champs, after winning a playoff game the week before and after a season in which, among other things, their franchise QB injured his throwing elbow, they lost their best defensive player and their top safety, who is an important team leader, for the season to injury, their best run-stuffer missed the game with an injury, their best DT was impaired with a shoulder injury, one of their guys more or less was dead on the ground in front of them in a game 20 days previously before being defibrillated back to life, their TE's kid brother collapsed and died on the football field just before the season, their city was hit by a deadly blizzard that killed 40 people and caused them to lose a home game and they had to break in a rookie OC.

That is an enormous number of physical and psychological obstacles to overcome.  But they lost 3 games by a total of 8 points, advanced in the playoffs and then got taken apart by a very good team that has now won 10 in a row and is firing on all cylinders.

The idea of moving on from McD is insanity, IMHO.

 

 

My thoughts on McD are immediately above.  I won't repeat them here, but I will say that if you think we are in coach purgatory, you must not remember the Mularkey/Jauron/Gailey/Rex/other losers era very well.

We disagree about Knox.  I think he's a very good TE.

The D line was indeed manhandled yesterday.  But as noted above its best player, who is also the team's best defensive player, was missing, as was their best run-stuffer, and Oliver, their 2nd-best DL, was impaired by injury as well.

You are also right that Tre White's return to form is uncertain.  I think he's the kind of guy who will make it back, and that assuming he won't based on substandard performance after joining the team 10 weeks into the season, after a major knee injury and missing all of training camp and the first 10 weeks of the season, is a faulty assumption, but YMMV.

I think Hyde is at least as good as Poyer and that it's at least 50/50 that Hyde and White will return in full form next season.

We'll see.

I don't think McDermott is the problem, but I do have to blame him somewhat for the timidity in the playoffs that we've seen.  A "go for it" in Week 5 should also be a "go for it" in the divisional round.  Mostly, I put this on Frazier; as above, I think he chickens out and plays it safe in the playoffs when his normally aggressive defense would succeed.  But some of it comes from the higher layer on the org chart.  I saw some timidity on offense yesterday (and last week), too, and that is on a rookie OC, but also on McD.  I'd like to see improvement there.

I think most of you know that I am loath to fire good head coaches, and so I'd keep McD.  But the coordinators?  One should go and the other had better learn fast.

45 minutes ago, nfreeman said:

Well, I'd say that all of us humans, even Sabrespace moderators, are not fully formed and have room for improvement. 

 

Solid theology.

[Taro T]

28 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

Sean McDermott and the rest of his coaching staff. They should also take a long hard look at Beane and his questionable drafting. 

You can run McDermott back but you need knew coordinators at a minimum. Frazier's defense has been figured out IMPO by any QB that is decent enough and has even an okay line. Dorsey has lost complete control of Josh Allen and his offense just 20yrd vertical routes for a half a season for no reason. Dorsey isn't good and they shouldn't wait until he figures it out. Frazier can't win when it counts (13 seconds) and that's enough to move on from. Also I think that locker room got way to comfortable and bought into their own hype. Guess what, nobody cares who hypes you. Win or go home.

Thank you.  Don't agree McDermott should be on the block.  He is the Bills winningest coach for a reason & he even had a winning record w/ Tyrod Taylor as his QB.

Absolutely want Frazier replaced but not a fan of canning Dorsey after 1 year.  He ABSOLUTELY has to be better and if he doesn't learn from his mistakes can him next year.  Expect he will be better if the Bills have a legit slot receiver.  McKenzie can be punted into the sun, they never use him on gadget plays anymore & he isn't a reliable receiver.  Crowder is an injury waiting to happen.  Don't know if Beasley or Shakur can be that reliable slot receiver, but if not thay need to fill the role via FA.  They really missed Beasley's 80 catches.  Doubt Singletary is back at what he'd cost and him being gone could also help w/ giving Allen check downs on 3rd.

Want to see OL the focus in the draft this year but if a monster RB is available at 28 grab him.  Want the OL the focus in the draft next year as well.  DB's & WR's late in the draft.  If a MLB makes sense for the draft slot grab him.

Could see them falling back slightly next year (~13-3 is going to be tough w/ the schedule) but still in the playoffs but can see them as a leading favorite again the following year.

[Taro T]

42 minutes ago, tom webster said:

I’ve tried to stay out of this debate but I’m fascinated by the fact that the consensus seems to be that a 13-3 team that is no worse the. The 6th best team in the league as we speak, have,

1) an inept  head coach

2) terrible coordinators

3) too many roster holes to list

4) a terrible scouting department 

5) an overrated front office.

They were embarrassed yesterday and are clearly a notch behind the four semi-finalist, but how is this all possible?

Would agree they have 1 coordinator that should be replaced and another who should be on a short leash.  The rest of the list though ...

[Eleven]

15 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Thank you.  Don't agree McDermott should be on the block.  He is the Bills winningest coach for a reason & he even had a winning record w/ Tyrod Taylor as his QB.

Absolutely want Frazier replaced but not a fan of canning Dorsey after 1 year.  He ABSOLUTELY has to be better and if he doesn't learn from his mistakes can him next year.  Expect he will be better if the Bills have a legit slot receiver.  McKenzie can be punted into the sun, they never use him on gadget plays anymore & he isn't a reliable receiver.  Crowder is an injury waiting to happen.  Don't know if Beasley or Shakur can be that reliable slot receiver, but if not thay need to fill the role via FA.  They really missed Beasley's 80 catches.  Doubt Singletary is back at what he'd cost and him being gone could also help w/ giving Allen check downs on 3rd.

Want to see OL the focus in the draft this year but if a monster RB is available at 28 grab him.  Want the OL the focus in the draft next year as well.  DB's & WR's late in the draft.  If a MLB makes sense for the draft slot grab him.

Could see them falling back slightly next year (~13-3 is going to be tough w/ the schedule) but still in the playoffs but can see them as a leading favorite again the following year.

Singletary and Shakir are replacement-level if not below.  And I LIKE Singletary.  So are the rest of the RBs and WRs not named Diggs.  Cook is better at catching passes than Singletary, if you need the check down guy.  They do need a slot receiver, since Beasley is old and batshit crazy.

Keep Hines for KR.

McKenzie's 2-yard end-around to greatness yesterday is about as good as it'll get with him.

Now, here's where everyone will hate me:  I'm kind of glad that they're out.  This team wasn't going to win it; at best, it was going to lose to the only NFC East team it hadn't lost a SB to.  I like Bills games because they are social events where I'm cheering for the same thing that other people are cheering for.  It's the same reason I like craps if I'm in a casino (that is a rare event); everyone is rooting together.  I don't love NFL football, I would greatly prefer the Sabres winning a Cup to the Bills winning a SB.  I very rarely watch the NFL if the Bills aren't playing--and that includes the last few SBs.  It's boring.   I doubt I'll watch next weekend, and I might turn part of the SB on. So I've got my Sunday afternoons back, I had enough fun cheering along other Bills fans this year, and GO SABRES!!!!!

Edited January 23, 2023 by Eleven

[Flashsabre]

Two WRs that moves on from the Bills (Zay Jones in Jax and Isiah Hodgins for NYG) became huge parts of those teams offences when they couldn’t crack the field for Buffalo.  Is talent the problem here or scheme?

[LGR4GM]

56 minutes ago, Taro T said:

Thank you.  Don't agree McDermott should be on the block.  He is the Bills winningest coach for a reason & he even had a winning record w/ Tyrod Taylor as his QB.

Absolutely want Frazier replaced but not a fan of canning Dorsey after 1 year.  He ABSOLUTELY has to be better and if he doesn't learn from his mistakes can him next year.  Expect he will be better if the Bills have a legit slot receiver.  McKenzie can be punted into the sun, they never use him on gadget plays anymore & he isn't a reliable receiver.  Crowder is an injury waiting to happen.  Don't know if Beasley or Shakur can be that reliable slot receiver, but if not thay need to fill the role via FA.  They really missed Beasley's 80 catches.  Doubt Singletary is back at what he'd cost and him being gone could also help w/ giving Allen check downs on 3rd.

Want to see OL the focus in the draft this year but if a monster RB is available at 28 grab him.  Want the OL the focus in the draft next year as well.  DB's & WR's late in the draft.  If a MLB makes sense for the draft slot grab him.

Could see them falling back slightly next year (~13-3 is going to be tough w/ the schedule) but still in the playoffs but can see them as a leading favorite again the following year.

This is not relevant to me personally. It is why I said you sometimes have to pass on the good things to get to the better things. 

There is no chance in hell I would allow Ken Dorsey to call my offense again but I doubt McDermott sees it that way. He lost control of Allen and started letting him play hero ball. Did you see the timing routes that Burrow was throwing to? Josh had none of those schemed it was all sit back and make your reads. At one point we went 2 series back to back without play action. Dorsey is in over his head and doesn't have the clout to control his QB. The depth of target argument IMPO is very valid. 

The 2nd bolded is exactly the wrong thinking that has gotten Beane in trouble and why I doubt him. He keeps wasting assets on rb and this would all but end my desire to see him in charge my team. I could put Nick Chubb or Derek Henry on the Bills and they would see drops in their stats because the offensive line can't block for ***** because it is a talentless journeyman hellscape. 

Edited January 23, 2023 by LGR4GM

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, LGR4GM said:

Sean McDermott and the rest of his coaching staff. They should also take a long hard look at Beane and his questionable drafting. 

Recall that McDermott essentially hired Beane. They are a package deal. If one goes, the other must go as well. At least, IMO.

1 hour ago, Porous Five Hole said:

The game flow seemed odd too many times, and JA17 is an alien isn’t an offensive identity. 

This was a great post. I agreed with everything there. This take above, especially. We were walking out of the stadium last night, asking: What's this team's offensive identity? What is it? And what you said above is the sum total of it: "Josh, go do something awesome." The team's OC needs to have multiple plays in the bag that will manufacture easy yards. IT seemed like nothing was easy this season - at least in close games or against good teams. When you have a mutant at QB, it should be fairly easy to get those easy yards because the opposing D has to respect him so much.

41 minutes ago, Taro T said:

McKenzie can be punted into the sun, they never use him on gadget plays anymore & he isn't a reliable receiver. 

26 minutes ago, Eleven said:

McKenzie's 2-yard end-around to greatness yesterday is about as good as it'll get with him.

Fun guy. Fun personality. But, when they ran that play for him yesterday, my son muttered: "He's ... it's like he's not even fast." He should not be in the plans next season.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

Recall that McDermott essentially hired Beane. They are a package deal. If one goes, the other must go as well. At least, IMO.

This was a great post. I agreed with everything there. This take above, especially. We were walking out of the stadium last night, asking: What's this team's offensive identity? What is it? And what you said above is the sum total of it: "Josh, go do something awesome." The team's OC needs to have multiple plays in the bag that will manufacture easy yards. IT seemed like nothing was easy this season - at least in close games or against good teams. When you have a mutant at QB, it should be fairly easy to get those easy yards because the opposing D has to respect him so much.

Fun guy. Fun personality. But, when they ran that play for him yesterday, my son muttered: "He's ... it's like he's not even fast." He should not be in the plans next season.

Fine with me. I think there are currently better coaches available and that is with respecting the culture that both have built. It's like when ppl say that Granato isn't the guy to get us wins in the playoffs, I weigh that in my mind because until he does it, it has merit. Beane has never won the AFC and McD hasn't won it. They have only had 1 shot at it too. So it isn't like they keep getting close and failing, they just keep failing and Beane's drafting is 100% suspect. You draft a press corner but don't play press coverage? You draft a pass catching RB but don't have any plays for that. You draft Shakir but don't use him. You ignore the o line. You draft edge after edge but they are essentially so useless you go get Von Miller. Outside of getting lucky with Allen, Beane is meh. 

Again, I am not saying Beane and McD have to be fired. But it is something to consider and you 100% do not let them bring the same staff back next year. It simply isn't good enough. 

[That Aud Smell]

1 hour ago, tom webster said:

I’ve tried to stay out of this debate but I’m fascinated by the fact that the consensus seems to be that a 13-3 team that is no worse the. The 6th best team in the league as we speak, have,

1) an inept  head coach

2) terrible coordinators

3) too many roster holes to list

4) a terrible scouting department 

5) an overrated front office.

They were embarrassed yesterday and are clearly a notch behind the four semi-finalist, but how is this all possible?

I won't own all of the statements above (some are over-simplified and/or embellished), but I'll stand by my concerns on those topics as I've expressed them.

I think they did remarkably well to finish with the record they did. But they seem to me to be trending downward. And I think that trend started with the second half of the Green Bay game (Halloween). The fact that they won as many games as they did is largely an expression of what an absolute freak show JA17 is. (Quick example: Remember that game-saving throw to Diggs against Detroit? Crazy town.)

I'm not sure what Las Vegas will say about their Wins over-under next season, but, if it's 10+, I'd be tempted to take the under.

[That Aud Smell]

3 minutes ago, LGR4GM said:

You draft a press corner but don't play press coverage?

The disconnect on this one is just galling. Elam is a baller. It's obvious that he's good and can maybe be really good. But he was a bad fit for Frazier's scheme at the time he was drafted. And I'm not sure that he'll ever learn to be a good fit for it. Shades of Ronald Darby, maybe.

[tom webster]

4 minutes ago, That Aud Smell said:

I won't own all of the statements above (some are over-simplified and/or embellished), but I'll stand by my concerns on those topics as I've expressed them.

I think they did remarkably well to finish with the record they did. But they seem to me to be trending downward. And I think that trend started with the second half of the Green Bay game (Halloween). The fact that they won as many games as they did is largely an expression of what an absolute freak show JA17 is. (Quick example: Remember that game-saving throw to Diggs against Detroit? Crazy town.)

I'm not sure what Las Vegas will say about their Wins over-under next season, but, if it's 10+, I'd be tempted to take the under.

Early Vegas odds have them the number two favorite for next years Super Bowl.

[LGR4GM]

11 minutes ago, tom webster said:

Early Vegas odds have them the number two favorite for next years Super Bowl.

Unless that offensive line has a minimum 3 new faces who are all significant improvements over what this year was, no chance.