Around the NHL: 2021

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

I think 50 points is a good average for a legit 2C, the defence marks the difference between a 1B and a 2B.

I think Roy is Casey's ceiling and in his prime Roy was a good 2C.

So he's a 2B ceiling then in my estimation, which is what I originally said haha

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

So he's a 2B ceiling then in my estimation, which is what I originally said haha

So 50-point, ***** D?

Not disagreeing, but his D has been surprisingly good this past hot streak. He doesn't have Cozens instincts, but he is coming back hard and breaking up plays.

[Thorny]

7 minutes ago, dudacek said:

So 50-point, ***** D?

Not disagreeing, but his D has been surprisingly good this past hot streak. He doesn't have Cozens instincts, but he is coming back hard and breaking up plays.

No like average D. This is really semantics heavy, trees, no forest, now... but I guess a 2C in my eyes has "good" offense and "good" defense 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[dudacek]

6 minutes ago, Thorny said:

No like average D. This is really semantics heavy, trees, no forest, now... but I guess a 2C in my eyes has "good" offense and "good" defense 

Got it. I was going of your "2B" which implied bad defence, since 50 points is solid offence.

[Thorny]

3 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Got it. I was going of your "2B" which implied bad defence, since 50 points is solid offence.

Ah ic.

Whatever the point difference is we end up haggling over is probably representative of what they score on the PP, anyways. To simplify, I guess I just see his ceiling as absolutely a 2C, but the most likely is a player who puts up the O we'd want from the 2C, but D slightly below that level. Ie - he can't "do his thing" against the competition we want him to do it against. 

That's where Cozens comes in 

We'd absolutely be looking at one of the better 3Cs in the league, hopefully, but that's the prism I try to view my hypothetical roster through - a team that is actually really good - that's the one I want to assemble 

[Weave]

I agree that Casey’s ceiling is 2C.  To me that means that if things develop perfectly he gets there.  
 

I have a hard time projecting Roy level for Casey.  Roy had a season or two where he was pushing 1C performance.  I’m hard pressed to see Casey elevate that much.  Curtis Brown maybe?  Less wheels, better hands?

Cozens, however, his floor might be Stu Barnes and ceiling.... Peca?

[dudacek]

14 minutes ago, Weave said:

I agree that Casey’s ceiling is 2C.  To me that means that if things develop perfectly he gets there.  
 

I have a hard time projecting Roy level for Casey.  Roy had a season or two where he was pushing 1C performance.  I’m hard pressed to see Casey elevate that much.  Curtis Brown maybe?  Less wheels, better hands?

Cozens, however, his floor might be Stu Barnes and ceiling.... Peca?

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you haven't been watching much, no?

Casey Mittelstadt's play over the past month is roughly equal to Roy level. He does not have to elevate, merely sustain.

No guarantee he will, but it's not the reach you are projecting it to be.

[Thorny]

11 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you haven't been watching much, no?

Casey Mittelstadt's play over the past month is roughly equal to Roy level. He does not have to elevate, merely sustain.

No guarantee he will, but it's not the reach you are projecting it to be.

Not ceiling Roy

10 points in 13 games is the absolute best way I can dice Casey's gamelog up until today to give him the best points per game I can

Roy had 81 over 78. Even if we project a 13 game sample size over 78 games, which to me doesn't make sense, that gets him to 60 points. That's not roughly equal and I'm trying my best to work that argument. 

He needs to elevate his raw production - beyond the need to sustain which is no small concern.

We certainly can't take an average of Roy's entire career and compare that with 4 weeks of play from Casey. In that case we'd have to take an average of Casey's. 

Edited April 23, 2021 by Thorny

[Weave]

31 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you haven't been watching much, no?

Casey Mittelstadt's play over the past month is roughly equal to Roy level. He does not have to elevate, merely sustain.

No guarantee he will, but it's not the reach you are projecting it to be.

I’ve watched the last several, but your point is valid regarding my watching.  Small sample size and all that.  Like my projections for Sam 3-4 years ago, I can’t put to words decently what I see, but I don’t see Roy level dynamic play and I don’t see Casey backing off a defence like Roy could when he was really going, and this is the best Casey we’ve seen to date.  I really see Casey topping out as a middling level 2c.  I was one of the guys leading the Casey is a bust train so this is a recalculation on my part.  I see much more dynamic play out of Cozens.  Teams react much more cautiously to Dylan entering the zone than the do when Casey enters the zone.

And Sam just flat out pulls up and slows down entering the offensive zone.  He’s a talented player that feels a need to slow things down to make plays.  It hinders his performance IMO.

And what Thorny said too.  You’re minimizing Roy’s best years.  I don’t see Casey getting there.

[Taro T]

34 minutes ago, dudacek said:

Correct me if I'm wrong, but you haven't been watching much, no?

Casey Mittelstadt's play over the past month is roughly equal to Roy level. He does not have to elevate, merely sustain.

No guarantee he will, but it's not the reach you are projecting it to be.

 

30 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Not ceiling Roy

10 points in 13 games is the absolute best way I can dice Casey's gamelog up until today to give him the best points per game I can

Roy had 81 over 78. Even if we project a 13 game sample size over 78 games, which to me doesn't make sense, that gets him to 60 points. That's not roughly equal and I'm trying my best to work that argument. 

He needs to elevate his raw production - beyond the need to sustain which is no small concern.

We certainly can't take an average of Roy's entire career and compare that with 4 weeks of play from Casey. In that case we'd have to take an average of Casey's. 

Well, Mittelstadt is ~21 and Roy's best seasons came at age 24.  At 22, he had 46 points in 70 games.  So, he is fairly comparable to Roy at the identical point in their careers.

Yes, he does need to grow to be Roy at his peak, & production wise that peak will likely be outside his grasp.  But, 60-70 points which is what Derek got in most of his prime years could very well be possible.  

It isn't too bad a comparison.  Not just from a talent standpoint but also from how the fans view him as well.  Roysie was very few people's favorite Sabre (nor in their top 10 even), and Mitts has caught similar shade.  Roy had better speed; Casey better size.  But what they end up could effectively be similar.

[Thorny]

24 minutes ago, Weave said:

I’ve watched the last several, but your point is valid regarding my watching.  Small sample size and all that.  Like my projections for Sam 3-4 years ago, I can’t put to words decently what I see, but I don’t see Roy level dynamic play and I don’t see Casey backing off a defence like Roy could when he was really going, and this is the best Casey we’ve seen to date.  I really see Casey topping out as a middling level 2c.  I was one of the guys leading the Casey is a bust train so this is a recalculation on my part.  I see much more dynamic play out of Cozens.  Teams react much more cautiously to Dylan entering the zone than the do when Casey enters the zone.

And Sam just flat out pulls up and slows down entering the offensive zone.  He’s a talented player that feels a need to slow things down to make plays.  It hinders his performance IMO.

And what Thorny said too.  You’re minimizing Roy’s best years.  I don’t see Casey getting there.

I think a lot about how, in the dead-puck era, this exact Reinhart is probably legit bonafide all-star 1C

[dudacek]

1 hour ago, Thorny said:

Not ceiling Roy

10 points in 13 games is the absolute best way I can dice Casey's gamelog up until today to give him the best points per game I can

Roy had 81 over 78. Even if we project a 13 game sample size over 78 games, which to me doesn't make sense, that gets him to 60 points. That's not roughly equal and I'm trying my best to work that argument. 

He needs to elevate his raw production - beyond the need to sustain which is no small concern.

We certainly can't take an average of Roy's entire career and compare that with 4 weeks of play from Casey. In that case we'd have to take an average of Casey's. 

 

26 minutes ago, Weave said:

I’ve watched the last several, but your point is valid regarding my watching.  Small sample size and all that.  Like my projections for Sam 3-4 years ago, I can’t put to words decently what I see, but I don’t see Roy level dynamic play and I don’t see Casey backing off a defence like Roy could when he was really going, and this is the best Casey we’ve seen to date.  I really see Casey topping out as a middling level 2c.  I was one of the guys leading the Casey is a bust train so this is a recalculation on my part.  I see much more dynamic play out of Cozens.  Teams react much more cautiously to Dylan entering the zone than the do when Casey enters the zone.

And Sam just flat out pulls up and slows down entering the offensive zone.  He’s a talented player that feels a need to slow things down to make plays.  It hinders his performance IMO.

And what Thorny said too.  You’re minimizing Roy’s best years.  I don’t see Casey getting there.

You guys may be right on the bold. Casey has been head and shoulders more dangerous than his current teammates in a way Roy never was to my recollection. But that may be a factor of the surrounding cast.

I do think a 60-point player in today's game with Thompson and Asplund on this team is roughly similar to an 80-point player with Vanek and Pominville on that team, but I am fully aware of the small sample size, and made sure to point that out.

[Weave]

15 minutes ago, Thorny said:

I think a lot about how, in the dead-puck era, this exact Reinhart is probably legit bonafide all-star 1C

94-04 ish is generally accepted, no?

Quick snapshot of the 99 All Star game (mid dead puck era) roster centers, Gretz, Primeux, Modano, Lindros, Roenick, Forsberg, Sundin, Holik, Yahsin.  Is Sam at Holik level?  Maybe, but the skillsets are so different you can't compare.  Other than that, Sam doesn't match up with that lineup IMO.

In 94 is Sam beating out Nieuwendyk, Oates, or Turgeon?  A case can be made he beats out Robert Lang or Marleau in 04.

I think its a stretch to call him a bonafide all star in any era.  He might make it into a game or two given one player from each team requirements.

 

[Thorny]

6 minutes ago, Weave said:

94-04 ish is generally accepted, no?

Quick snapshot of the 99 All Star game (mid dead puck era) roster centers, Gretz, Primeux, Modano, Lindros, Roenick, Forsberg, Sundin, Holik, Yahsin.  Is Sam at Holik level?  Maybe, but the skillsets are so different you can't compare.  Other than that, Sam doesn't match up with that lineup IMO.

In 94 is Sam beating out Nieuwendyk, Oates, or Turgeon?  A case can be made he beats out Robert Lang or Marleau in 04.

I think its a stretch to call him a bonafide all star in any era.  He might make it into a game or two given one player from each team requirements.

 

Ya I mean Reinhart is producing what Marleau did, then, now - and I think he would be significantly upping his production in an era where the game is played at a snail's pace compared to today. The Holik's of the world...pretty close to the same thing. 

Regardless, I did not mean to say he'd be a perennial all-star so bad wording on my part - but I did mean clear cut 1C and I do think he'd be a player adding all-star games to his resume. It's just a theory - but his game just looks perfect for that style 

[Weave]

12 minutes ago, Thorny said:

Ya I mean Reinhart is producing what Marleau did, then, now - and I think he would be significantly upping his production in an era where the game is played at a snail's pace compared to today. The Holik's of the world...pretty close to the same thing. 

Regardless, I did not mean to say he'd be a perennial all-star so bad wording on my part - but I did mean clear cut 1C and I do think he'd be a player adding all-star games to his resume. It's just a theory - but his game just looks perfect for that style 

Yeah, I can see the bolded.  The big question would be, does he have the ability to fight through the obstruction of that era.

[Thorny]

14 minutes ago, Weave said:

Yeah, I can see the bolded.  The big question would be, does he have the ability to fight through the obstruction of that era.

That's a great point

[WildCard]

The time clock on NBC is atrocious

[Kong]

 

Mitch Marner > Jack Eichel

[sabremike]

3 minutes ago, Kong said:

 

Mitch Marner > Jack Eichel

Have any other crap hot takes you want to share with us?

[Kong]

6 minutes ago, sabremike said:

Have any other crap hot takes you want to share with us?

Just hang out, I'll think of some more. Seriously, is there any argument here? What is your argument, besides insulting me?

Edited April 25, 2021 by Kong

[Broken Ankles]

You don’t have to be big to make big hits.  Sandin is 21 and 5’11.  Nice player. And he’s a Rasmus, how is not on the Buffalo Rasmi?

 

[SDS]

1 hour ago, Broken Ankles said:

You don’t have to be big to make big hits.  Sandin is 21 and 5’11.  Nice player. And he’s a Rasmus, how is not on the Buffalo Rasmi?

 

Seriously? He stopped and turned his back. Credit for keeping his feet. To hit someone I think you need to be moving. 

[Eleven]

20 minutes ago, SDS said:

Seriously? He stopped and turned his back. Credit for keeping his feet. To hit someone I think you need to be moving. 

Yep.  Not a hit.  At all.  Wheeler miscalculated.

[Broken Ankles]

33 minutes ago, SDS said:

Seriously? He stopped and turned his back. Credit for keeping his feet. To hit someone I think you need to be moving. 

Absolutely serious.  He slowed but did make contact, just with his backside.  Angle in clip wasn’t great. Nice play.

[French Collection]

8 hours ago, Eleven said:

Yep.  Not a hit.  At all.  Wheeler miscalculated.

I used to admire Peter Forsberg’s skill at doing this. Yeah, Wheeler messed up.

Some people even say it could be called interference as Wheeler never touched the puck.