Report: “Another Disconnect” Between Botterill and Krueger

[Weave]

2 minutes ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

It takes away the joy from watching the game.

It certainly does for me.

Then again, losing for 10 years straight is a bigger factor.

[Wyldnwoody44]

5 minutes ago, Weave said:

It certainly does for me.

Then again, losing for 10 years straight is a bigger factor.

This is very true, I wonder if we were a top team if the information stream of analytics would be so up front. 

I do appreciate the work of everyone here that puts the work in, hell, I think these posters put more worknin than those that work for the sabres. But at a certain point it's almost like being back in college and looking at work instead of enjoying the sport 

[DarthEbriate]

On 4/30/2020 at 2:35 PM, Weave said:

It certainly does for me.

Then again, losing for 10 years straight is a bigger factor.

One of the positives of no current sports is watching these old games (twitter Buffalo Archives, NHL.com Sabres Classics if you can drill down far enough to find them). There are fewer graphics, less information on the screen...  and it's glorious. I mean, the numbers on the 98-99 Sabres had to be gross. They could barely complete a pass, zone entries and breakout passes? pshaw. People are being mugged and tackled all over the place. But watching them is pure joy. Out of nowhere they have a perfect breakout, perfect tic-tac-toe, and everyone is in the right place. It's the beautiful chaos of hockey.

What I'm also seeing (boo -- eye-test!) is that the '99 team would obliterate our current roster with 99 rules, and would still win if they had to adapt to modern rules. And... the 05-06 team would crush that '99 team.

I also watched the 1991 World Series and it's beautiful, wild, baseball. And there's nothing on the screen, and the game moves with pace, and it takes thought and paying attention to watch the game. I wouldn't want to go back and do a GDT during that, I'd want to just live it solely for the sport. Is that nostalgia or how much culture and myself have changed?

Edited May 2, 2020 by DarthEbriate

[shrader]

23 hours ago, Wyldnwoody44 said:

Analytics and metrics have done more harm for the world than good, especially in sports. It takes away the joy from watching the game. I want to see the game and go "man that player sucks or is good" and leave it at that, I don't care what his XGF or corsi or what his Thursday afternoon stretching routine is. The fact we've been so bad, I think fuels the fire of why therefore increasing our want to know more of why. It's as simple as we don't have good enough players, not about analytics.

I'm a statistician and analytics have no changed a thing about my game viewing habits one bit.  And that's exactly how it should be.  Each of those numbers, they're not something you can see out there on the ice.  The stuff you can see, none of that is the least bit advanced.  Coincidentally, those are the so called advanced analytics that they spotlight during a Sabre broadcast.  They're about as advanced as a hammer.

I've never payed one bit of attention to any of the analytics in hockey, even though I have that base of knowledge.  Hockey is entertainment for me and I'm not going to let work creep into that world.  So it hasn't changed my viewing at all and it really shouldn't for anyone else either.  What is has changed is those conversations after the games.  That dam has burst and it's never going back up.

[Wyldnwoody44]

1 minute ago, shrader said:

I'm a statistician and analytics have no changed a thing about my game viewing habits one bit.  And that's exactly how it should be.  Each of those numbers, they're not something you can see out there on the ice.  The stuff you can see, none of that is the least bit advanced.  Coincidentally, those are the so called advanced analytics that they spotlight during a Sabre broadcast.  They're about as advanced as a hammer.

I've never payed one bit of attention to any of the analytics in hockey, even though I have that base of knowledge.  Hockey is entertainment for me and I'm not going to let work creep into that world.  So it hasn't changed my viewing at all and it really shouldn't for anyone else either.  What is has changed is those conversations after the games.  That dam has burst and it's never going back up.

I understand what you're saying.... Give me shots on goal, hits, facoffs and the basic "meat" goalies save% and GAA. 

I was always decent with numbers, but I'm nowhere near the level of understanding some of the stuff that some of the peeps here come up with. 

I still feel that the stats are kind of a way to explain so much losing, I'm not sure if winning teams have message boards with similar conversations (I haven't followed a winning team in a decade now ?) 

[Randall Flagg]

I just paid my first visit to evolving wild and hockeyviz, the two advanced stat sites i use, in quite a few months IIRC. I don't miss poring over this stuff. I honestly wish that there was a similar resource that made it easy to watch every shift of an individual or a team or a line, and edit/manipulate the footage with ease. I'd choose doing that over scouring stat sites any day, and would waste years of my life watching film and trying to justify takes that are far more gut instinct than I'd ever willingly admit on a forum 

Edited May 1, 2020 by Randall Flagg

[Weave]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

I'm a statistician and analytics have no changed a thing about my game viewing habits one bit.  And that's exactly how it should be.  Each of those numbers, they're not something you can see out there on the ice.  The stuff you can see, none of that is the least bit advanced.  Coincidentally, those are the so called advanced analytics that they spotlight during a Sabre broadcast.  They're about as advanced as a hammer.

I've never payed one bit of attention to any of the analytics in hockey, even though I have that base of knowledge.  Hockey is entertainment for me and I'm not going to let work creep into that world.  So it hasn't changed my viewing at all and it really shouldn't for anyone else either.  What is has changed is those conversations after the games.  That dam has burst and it's never going back up.

Interesting.  The professional statistician on the board is silent on game analytics. 

It's always the quiet ones.....

[Wyldnwoody44]

17 minutes ago, Weave said:

Interesting.  The professional statistician on the board is silent on game analytics. 

It's always the quiet ones.....

[Marvin]

1 hour ago, shrader said:

I'm a statistician and analytics have no changed a thing about my game viewing habits one bit.  And that's exactly how it should be.  Each of those numbers, they're not something you can see out there on the ice.  The stuff you can see, none of that is the least bit advanced.  Coincidentally, those are the so called advanced analytics that they spotlight during a Sabre broadcast.  They're about as advanced as a hammer.

I've never payed one bit of attention to any of the analytics in hockey, even though I have that base of knowledge.  Hockey is entertainment for me and I'm not going to let work creep into that world.  So it hasn't changed my viewing at all and it really shouldn't for anyone else either.  What is has changed is those conversations after the games.  That dam has burst and it's never going back up.

I started doing @Randall Flagg data analysis back in 1992 when I was a grad student in Applied Mathematics I always had a passion for finding the *right* statistics to check and basically ignore most of them; if they don't correlate to winning, then I don't care.  I used to test models of stats tracked in the 1990's against team performance for fun.  Then again, I do Putnam, ARML, and IMO problems for fun too, so YMMV.

[shrader]

On 5/1/2020 at 5:49 PM, Weave said:

Interesting.  The professional statistician on the board is silent on game analytics. 

It's always the quiet ones.....

I’m sure @DarthEbriate will have a ball with this one... there is another

[sabremike]

I have never understood why there is so much hostility towards what is essentially pattern recognition and using numerical formulas to express common sense conclusions (Such as corsi/fenwick which suggest taking more shots than the other team is a good thing).

[Marvin]

11 hours ago, sabremike said:

I have never understood why there is so much hostility towards what is essentially pattern recognition and using numerical formulas to express common sense conclusions (Such as corsi/fenwick which suggest taking more shots than the other team is a good thing).

As a former math teacher, I guarantee that some of it is society's anti-STEM attitudes.

Greater data analysis also takes some of the aura from the game -- I lost my child-like fun of the game when I started mining data in 1992, but I gained a different appreciation as a number-crunching adult.  It is not a trade that everyone would make.

[dudacek]

15 minutes ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

Greater data analysis also takes some of the aura from the game -- I lost my child-like fun of the game when I started mining data in 1992, but I gained a different appreciation as a number-crunching adult.  It is not a trade that everyone would make.

I'm not against analytics — I actually find them interesting — just the people who dogmatically use them to reach conclusions that the numbers don't necessarily prove.

But I certainly get this and buy into it to a certain degree. Fandom is about entertainment after all, and for me that's more about the story than anything else. That's why I'd certainly. buy into a ragtag bunch of Sabres finding their strength during a pandemic and going on a summer run on the backs of quirky goaltender Linus Ullmark, emerging superstar Jack Eichel and unlikely goal scoring hero Jimmy Vesey — no matter what the regular season numbers might say. Or maybe because of them.

Edited May 3, 2020 by dudacek

[SwampD]

12 hours ago, sabremike said:

I have never understood why there is so much hostility towards what is essentially pattern recognition and using numerical formulas to express common sense conclusions (Such as corsi/fenwick which suggest taking more shots than the other team is a good thing).

 

12 minutes ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

As a former math teacher, I guarantee that some of it is society's anti-STEM attitudes.

Greater data analysis also takes some of the aura from the game -- I lost my child-like fun of the game when I started mining data in 1992, but I gained a different appreciation as a number-crunching adult.  It is not a trade that everyone would make.

Again, it’s not directed towards analytics. It’s directed at the people who use them wholly or incorrectly.

[Marvin]

2 hours ago, SwampD said:

 

Again, it’s not directed towards analytics. It’s directed at the people who use them wholly or incorrectly.

The problem is that when anyone has concrete numbers to use, s/he now has reinforcement of her/his beliefs.  We also can add the psychology that anything that was derived from computation is somehow ennobled, so the numbers get even greater consideration.  We can then add that the way we were taught math lends to the mindset of, "this is the right answer, period" adds to the mindset of dogmatism.  How much the computation means is immaterial.

[Taro T]

3 hours ago, E4 ... Ke2 said:

The problem is that when anyone has concrete numbers to use, s/he now has reinforcement of her/his beliefs.  We also can add the psychology that anything that was derived from computation is somehow ennobled, so the numbers get even greater consideration.  We can then add that the way we were taught math lends to the mindset of, "this is the right answer, period" adds to the mindset of dogmatism.  How much the computation means is immaterial.

There may be some merit to that thought, though the phrase "there's lies, d*mn lies, and statistics" has a ring of truth to it as well.

Thing is, statistics / analytics / call it what you will are tools.  No more, no less.  And a chimp with a rechargeable power nail gun is still just a chimp with essentially a hammer (and a dangerous one at that), regardless of how much more a skilled roofer can accomplish with one.

[DarthEbriate]

On 5/2/2020 at 4:25 PM, shrader said:

I’m sure @DarthEbriate will have a ball with this one... there is another

Always two there are. A master and a denominator. And a numerator.

[DarthEbriate]

16 hours ago, Taro T said:

There may be some merit to that thought, though the phrase "there's lies, d*mn lies, and statistics" has a ring of truth to it as well.

Thing is, statistics / analytics / call it what you will are tools.  No more, no less.  And a chimp with a rechargeable power nail gun is still just a chimp with essentially a hammer (and a dangerous one at that), regardless of how much more a skilled roofer can accomplish with one.

But just think if that chimp with a nail gun was also a skilled roofer! ? 

[LGR4GM]

On 5/2/2020 at 11:53 PM, sabremike said:

I have never understood why there is so much hostility towards what is essentially pattern recognition and using numerical formulas to express common sense conclusions (Such as corsi/fenwick which suggest taking more shots than the other team is a good thing).

A lot of times I notice that those most vehemently against it, don't understand it or were involved in the sport in their younger days and are resentful of the changes in deciding who or what is good. 

16 hours ago, Taro T said:

There may be some merit to that thought, though the phrase "there's lies, d*mn lies, and statistics" has a ring of truth to it as well.

Thing is, statistics / analytics / call it what you will are tools.  No more, no less.  And a chimp with a rechargeable power nail gun is still just a chimp with essentially a hammer (and a dangerous one at that), regardless of how much more a skilled roofer can accomplish with one.

Exactly. Analytics should just be another tool for a team to call on when making decisions. Frolik is bad, I can watch his tape and have questions and then look at the numbers and be alarmed at how minimal his offensive generation is. 

[shrader]

1 hour ago, DarthEbriate said:

Always two there are. A master and a denominator. And a numerator.

My mind always flocks to the originals, so that is not the quote I was thinking of.  Right character, wrong movie.  A longer rant has now come to mind, but I'll save it for a PM and not derail this thread.

[Pimlach]

I am pretty sure I’m one of the older guys here so I am sure age is part of it.  I loved hockey from the age of 5 and going to Bisons games. 

I was a diehard fan of the game.  I played, i coached my kids and was active in youth hockey.  I have watch hockey forever, where I lived thanks to cable cheater boxes and more legit technology. 

Analytics - I don’t spend much time with it.  I like watching the play and doing my own analysis. I would rather do other things over learning  those charts. 

In today’s game the players have amazing skills and conditioning; yet the game lacks the intensity and passion of past decades.  

Edited May 5, 2020 by Pimlach

[Neo]

Stats are insightful and meaningful.  Acknowledged, admired, respected.

When you’re finished with them, let’s talk poetry and romance.

[That Aud Smell]

8 hours ago, Neo said:

Stats are insightful and meaningful.  Acknowledged, admired, respected.

When you’re finished with them, let’s talk poetry and romance.

Not a whole lot of poetry and romance coming from the Sabres over the last, oh, 9 years. Which plays into the theory that the team being bad is a factor in why there’s so much interest in their advanced stats. If this team were really good? I think there’d be less interest in the topic, generally. As it is, the stats provide a way of understanding what’s wrong (and thereby providing some sense of ... control? Mastery? Over a bad situation).

Edited May 5, 2020 by That Aud Smell

[PASabreFan]

Dr. Fauci hates modeling of pandemics.

[That Aud Smell]

26 minutes ago, PASabreFan said:

Dr. Fauci hates modeling of pandemics.

Go on ...